La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Kubra]

>huuuuurr what is social democracy

Calling Venezuela a social democracy is an insult to both social democracies and Venezuelans, because it never functioned as such. Venezuela functioned much like the rest of the countries that composed the "Pink Tide" as left-wing populists. Chavez was a populist. He launched two attempted coups in order to bring about social change. When he became President, his greatest base of support was within the poorest of Venezuela, both urban and rural. His social policies, while mostly oriented to achieve better development of these unprivileged communities within Venezuela, were essentially a bribe for the poorest voters; vote for me and we'll continue with our programs. There was no attempt at social justice and there was no attempt at creating these within the framework of a capitalist society because the operating ideology of the PSUV is a localised interpretation of socialism.

Calling Venezuela a social democracy is ignorant and a matter of convenience for you, because you don't want it to be associated with socialism and held up as yet another failure of the ideology.

Chavez and Maduro did a lot for Venezuelan workers before Saudi Arabia and the US made everything go to shit.

Venezuela's economic issues predate Chavez and the PSUV. Chavez attempted to address some of these issues, but these policies largely failed. Venezuela was already going down the crapper prior to Chavez's death. Maduro's lack of willingness to address the issues himself and the continued economic mismanagement are very much the reason for why Venezuela is in the hole it is in.

That isn't to say I like the PSUV, I think they're a bunch of socdems who can't decide what they want.

They're not social democrats. They're socialists. End of.

The same could be said the Weimar Republic, but we do not understand it as being therefore socialist instead of social-democratic on the grounds of failure. And in any case, social democratic parties are socialist, bruh. A failure of a social-democratic administration, if we're attributing success and failure as a matter of ideology, would be in any case shared. If social democrats fail, it's a failure of socialism.

[Costa Fierro]

The same could be said the Weimar Republic, but we do not understand it as being therefore socialist instead of social-democratic on the grounds of failure. And in any case, social democratic parties are socialist, bruh. A failure of a social-democratic administration, if we're attributing success and failure as a matter of ideology, would be in any case shared. If social democrats fail, it's a failure of socialism.

I tend to define political ideologies and their variants more narrowly, and I personally would define Venezuela as left-wing populist, especially considering it revolved around a charismatic central leader.

[Kubra]

The same could be said the Weimar Republic, but we do not understand it as being therefore socialist instead of social-democratic on the grounds of failure. And in any case, social democratic parties are socialist, bruh. A failure of a social-democratic administration, if we're attributing success and failure as a matter of ideology, would be in any case shared. If social democrats fail, it's a failure of socialism.

I tend to define political ideologies and their variants more narrowly, and I personally would define Venezuela as left-wing populist, especially considering it revolved around a charismatic central leader.

It's generally hard to define what is "socialist" and "social-democratic", because there's generally no hard and fast rules on what makes what. Consider that for the period Lenin and company were holding up stage coaches and laundering money they were considered social democrats.
Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left). Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

[Kowani]

I tend to define political ideologies and their variants more narrowly, and I personally would define Venezuela as left-wing populist, especially considering it revolved around a charismatic central leader.

It's generally hard to define what is "socialist" and "social-democratic", because there's generally no hard and fast rules on what makes what. Consider that for the period Lenin and company were holding up stage coaches and laundering money they were considered social democrats.
Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left). Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

To be fair, Maduro and Chavez ran the country so far into the ground you’d need a miner to go any deeper, so Guiadó doesn’t seem to be that terrible.

[Kubra]

It's generally hard to define what is "socialist" and "social-democratic", because there's generally no hard and fast rules on what makes what. Consider that for the period Lenin and company were holding up stage coaches and laundering money they were considered social democrats.
Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left). Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

To be fair, Maduro and Chavez ran the country so far into the ground you’d need a miner to go any deeper, so Guiadó doesn’t seem to be that terrible.

You never know it can get worse until it gets worse. "Someone, anyone" is a great way to get the wrong guy in a country with a lot of wrong guys.
That's not to say I'm discounting the guy, but that I want to hear an economic reform programme before passing any judgements

[Kowani]

To be fair, Maduro and Chavez ran the country so far into the ground you’d need a miner to go any deeper, so Guiadó doesn’t seem to be that terrible.

You never know it can get worse until it gets worse. "Someone, anyone" is a great way to get the wrong guy in a country with a lot of wrong guys.
That's not to say I'm discounting the guy, but that I want to hear an economic reform programme before passing any judgements

You’re right in that it’s a great way to get a terrible person. But a starving man would not evaluate the long term nutritional impact of a piece of food, rather, he would eat and not starve. Venezuela is that starving man: It could be poisoned, but if nothing is done, death is certain. Sometimes, all one can do is throw the dice. This should not be a long term habit, but in times of crisis, one may not have the luxury of careful evaluation.

[Kubra]

You never know it can get worse until it gets worse. "Someone, anyone" is a great way to get the wrong guy in a country with a lot of wrong guys.
That's not to say I'm discounting the guy, but that I want to hear an economic reform programme before passing any judgements

You’re right in that it’s a great way to get a terrible person. But a starving man would not evaluate the long term nutritional impact of a piece of food, rather, he would eat and not starve. Venezuela is that starving man: It could be poisoned, but if nothing is done, death is certain. Sometimes, all one can do is throw the dice. This should not be a long term habit, but in times of crisis, one may not have the luxury of careful evaluation.

Sure, but if we're speaking in metaphors, a man stuck out at sea will eventually take to drinking seawater.
There ain't no easy solutions here, the crisis of Venezuela has been decades in the making and it may be decades still to salvage a functioning country out of it.

[Costa Fierro]

Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left).

I'm not denying that it's the government's fault for the problems here, especially considering Venezuela had a chance to stop the crisis from getting worse and it flatly rejected proposals to change Chavez-era policies.

Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

Juan Guaidó is a member of the Popular Will party lead by Leopoldo López, who is imprisoned. The party is itself a centrist and social democrat but interestingly, is a member of Socialist International. Considering the party was the first one to get LGBT members elected to the Venezuelan Congress, it's not the bastion of fascism some claim to be.

[Phoenicaea]

^ most important, since after the fall of the regime a country can t recover itself in a moment, it will need years and years of aids, both aids -food medicine- and investment.

i wonder if nowadays, with all the richness, lucky countries are no more going to send aides. after wwii, italy had received aids.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

^ most important, since after the fall of the regime a country can t recover itself in a moment, it will need years and years of aids, both aids -food medicine- and investment.

i wonder if nowadays, with all the richness, lucky countries are no more going to send aides. after wwii, italy had received aids.

Uuh...

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left).

I'm not denying that it's the government's fault for the problems here, especially considering Venezuela had a chance to stop the crisis from getting worse and it flatly rejected proposals to change Chavez-era policies.

Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

Juan Guaidó is a member of the Popular Will party lead by Leopoldo López, who is imprisoned. The party is itself a centrist and social democrat but interestingly, is a member of Socialist International. Considering the party was the first one to get LGBT members elected to the Venezuelan Congress, it's not the bastion of fascism some claim to be.

lol, Kubra, not the government, not the administration, the revolution, as in the permanent eternal revolution, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay, just like the permanent eternal revolution of Cuba, that is whom and what we are dealing with here.

[Shofercia]

The decision to recognize or not recognize a leader is a bit more complex than just the will of the recognizing nation. It'd be a bit silly for the UK to not recognize Trump as US President after the 2016 election, or not recognize Putin as Russia's President after the 2018 presidential election. If in doubt, the recognition goes to the old regime. Right now, the countries recognizing Guaido are taking a huge risk. If his faction loses in this struggle, Venezuela can pull out assets from said countries as punishment, since, as you said, they still recognize Venezuela as a sovereign nation.

Be that as it may, the right to recognize another government or not is an essential element of sovereignty. It was more than a bit silly for the US to recognize the Chinese Nationalist government in Taipei as sovereign over all of China, but from the end of the Revolution to Nixon that is how things were. And as announced today, the Maduro regime can neither pull its assets from the US (they're frozen) nor collect payments due to PDVSA or its refinery (those go into blocked accounts), exactly because the US recognizes Guaido as interim President of Venezuela and not Maduro.

The US Recognition of the Nationalists over the Communists led to the Korean War, which ended in a draw. A Superpower, like the US, can get away with dumb decisions, but it hurts American authority in the long run. You have a right to recognize or not recognize a country, or a leader, but if you continue to act on a whim, it will come to bite you in the ass, as well as your sovereignty, or at the very least your influence in certain regions. How's American influence in East Asia doing?

Furthermore, not a whole lot of countries followed America's lead. Let's say that, in spite of his bluster, Maduro holds elections, said elections are oversee by the EU, and Maduro wins. What's the US going to do? How will that affect pro US regimes in Latin America in the next election cycle?

Think of it as driving on the freeway. I have a right to rear end the car that just cut me off, but as a result my insurance will increase. That's why I said that the decision to recognize or not recognize a leader is a bit more complex than just the will of the recognizing nation. Sometimes the party you support wins, and sometimes it loses. Going "I want a war, I want a war, I want a war!" instead of knowing when to fall back, isn't going to help one's country maintain its Superpower status.

[Minoa]

Joanna Hausmann posted a video on YouTube entitled: “What's Happening in Venezuela?: Just the Facts”. I opted not to post a link because I am concerned about the appropriateness of an image shown when she mentioned people dying from previously eradicated diseases like Polio. But the point is that a sheer majority of Venezuelans want change, after many painful years of decline.

To clarify my point about not “picking a side” and instead calling for free and fair elections and a peaceful transition: this is neither an ideological argument, nor an economic argument: a crisis like this cannot be solved through global rivalry, but by understanding the reality and negotiating a peaceful end to the crisis that has clearly gone too far. I am sure that Guaidó aspires for a peaceful revolution against what Spain calls the “opposite of socialism”, but I know that it is not wise to feed Trump’s confusing and fear-mongering rhetoric.

To cut the long story short: I support Guaidó, but I think Trump and his government has to refrain from the bellicose rhetoric that's already dealt a huge blow to my mental health through the fear of World War III, exacerbated by rampant misinformation. Putin also has to tone down his rhetoric too.

Side note: to allay concerns about oil supply, it can be offset with plastic recycling, new solar panels and new wind turbines. If I recall correctly, China has been putting a lot of effort into panda-shaped solar power stations.

[Novus America]

Joanna Hausmann posted a video on YouTube entitled: “What's Happening in Venezuela?: Just the Facts”. I opted not to post a link because I am concerned about the appropriateness of an image shown when she mentioned people dying from previously eradicated diseases like Polio. But the point is that a sheer majority of Venezuelans want change, after many painful years of decline.

To clarify my point about not “picking a side” and instead calling for free and fair elections and a peaceful transition: this is neither an ideological argument, nor an economic argument: a crisis like this cannot be solved through global rivalry, but by understanding the reality and negotiating a peaceful end to the crisis that has clearly gone too far. I am sure that Guaidó aspires for a peaceful revolution against what Spain calls the “opposite of socialism”, but I know that it is not wise to feed Trump’s confusing and fear-mongering rhetoric.

To cut the long story short: I support Guaidó, but I think Trump and his government has to refrain from the bellicose rhetoric that's already dealt a huge blow to my mental health through the fear of World War III, exacerbated by rampant misinformation. Putin also has to tone down his rhetoric too.

Side note: to allay concerns about oil supply, it can be offset with plastic recycling, new solar panels and new wind turbines. If I recall correctly, China has been putting a lot of effort into panda-shaped solar power stations.

Oil is not a critical problem right, if anything we have too much, not too little.

Saudi Arabia has cut production. There is plenty of spare capacity to make up for any loss from Venezuela. Besides Venezuelan production is going to continue to rapidly decline if the Maduro gang stays in power, Guaido is the only chance of possible reversing the fall.

Putin is an odious troll but can be largely ignored here.
He is not going to get too deeply involved and is limited in what he can do.
Sure Putin violently opposes democracy in Venezuela but there is only so much he can do to fight it.

Hopefully Maduro’s gang goes down, and we get new, free and fair elections.
Guaido is only an interim President, he is calling for new elections.

[Phoenicaea]

^ @Minoa, i agree, indeed this is why Gaudi' is the legitimate president while calling for amnesty and not letting the regime without a sortie,

and then Urugay is precious, amongst others, to keep their 'peace agreement' point so they can host a parley.

in diplomacy, sometimes different subjects say different things, each acting its own part in the comedy, keeping their role, and de facto working toghether.

sample of it, Uruguay has not proof statement against, each knows they don t even know with Maduro, same Us 'menacing' troops, it isnt war, they have to, so regime falls on its own.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

While the permanent eternal revolution of Venezuela under Chávez and Maduro did not consolidate power and declared it a one political party state nation, unlike the permanent eternal revolution of Cuba, it has played with the opposition for years as a multi political party nation, but make no mistake about the true nature of the regime and the eternal revolution of Venezuela, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay. I expected them to declare the nation a one political party state nation like Cuba's after the new constitutional assembly farce, Maduro even threatened to do so at some point during the new constitutional assembly farce, but has not done it yet, why I don't know, but that is whom and what we are dealing with here.

[West Leas Oros 2]

I mean, to get technical, this is basically US imperialism...

[Loben]

I mean, to get technical, this is basically US imperialism...

and?

[West Leas Oros 2]

I mean, to get technical, this is basically US imperialism...

and?

I’m pretty sure US imperialism is a bad thing, chief.

[Loben]

and?

I’m pretty sure US imperialism is a bad thing, chief.

im sure china is a much better master, if you so wish.

[West Leas Oros 2]

I’m pretty sure US imperialism is a bad thing, chief.

im sure china is a much better master, if you so wish.

Or we could let nations govern themselves and not have them as puppets to foreign overlords.

[Loben]

im sure china is a much better master, if you so wish.

Or we could let nations govern themselves and not have them as puppets to foreign overlords.

and like unicorns shitting cookies for all the children to eat to their heart's content, not gonna happen.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

I mean, to get technical, this is basically US imperialism...

lol, I consider the Venezuelan regime and eternal revolution basically leftist imperialism by its main supporter Cuba since the days of Chávez.

[Loben]

I mean, to get technical, this is basically US imperialism...

lol, I consider the Venezuelan regime and eternal revolution basically leftist imperialism by its main supporter Cuba since the days of Chávez.

imperialism is A-ok when the flag doing it is red.

[Novus America]

Or we could let nations govern themselves and not have them as puppets to foreign overlords.

and like unicorns shitting cookies for all the children to eat to their heart's content, not gonna happen.

Yeah. The US and China are logically going to compete for influence.

But the US is on the better side here. Not that we always support democracy (obviously sometime we do not) but also we do not view liberal democracy as inherently bad (unlike China).