La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Novus America]

Again if the goal is simply to remove the Maduro we can easily do that.
The Taliban are still not in power, although the control good parts of the countryside.

And Panama worked out fine.

Afghanistan is a a different case because the population is so tribal, fanatically religious and culturally and linguistically different.

But again I hope a transition can occur without actual military operations.

Just shifting the cash flows to Guaido and the National Assembly is what is needed.

The military will not stay loyal to the gangsters if they cannot pay them off.

Well ofcourse it wouldn't be hard to remove Maduro, but that's usually only the beginning for said conflicts.
I only adressed Afghanistan as the previous poster mentioned it; Though i doubt culture, language or religion is that much of a factor. Yes, it was to Afghanistan due to the nature of the conflict, but Venezuela would be a whole other conflict.

Same here, military operations propbably won't solve anything, and surely will make the situation worse.

I disagree with the support of the quasi-dictator, i don't see any valid reason as to why we should blindly support an undemocratic 'self-declared president'. I'd rather see pressure on Maduro through conventional means, and possibly seek mediation through states that Maduro still considers friendly (China, Russia, Cuba, Bolivia etc.).

Sure the situation with Guiado is less than ideal but he is certainly better than the drug dealing gangsters of the Chavista gang. Who absolutely need to go.

And without putting pressure on them there is no way to get them to negotiate.

Successful negotiation cannot happen without leverage.
And before you negotiate you aquire as much leverage as possible.

[Czechova]

Hopefully Maduro is the next Ceausescu.

[Shofercia]

Trump said something doesn't mean a loss of legitimacy. The EU member states wouldn't be asking Maduro to hold an election, if they didn't think he was the leader, meaning that the above quote is in conflict with this one:



Odd. They both seem to be by the same poster, from the same post, and yet they're in conflict. I can ask the mods to warn you, if you flame me on NSG. Doesn't make me a mod. The EU nations are sending a conditional request to Maduro, meaning that they still recognize him as leader.

The point is that it is pointless at this point to make legalistic arguments about who the "legal president" of Venezuela is. According to the Chavistas the fraudulent election makes their man the president; according to the resistance the National Assembly action makes their man the president. According to some other nations Guaido is president, according to others Maduro is, eight days from now most of the EU might change its mind. For the moment Maduro seems to retain the loyalty of the security forces but there are hints and whispers that that might be in jeopardy. But in the nations that recognize Guaido, Maduro has no access to Venezuelan financial or other assets (for our dabbing pigeon friend, and as noted above, that is the main significance of the US et. al's recognition of Guaido). For those of us with no skin in the game it may make an interesting sort of moot international court discussion, but without any practical effect.

That's an opinion, not a point. The EU countries who called on Maduro to hold election, implicitly recognized him as leader. Most of the World either recognizes Maduro as leader, or has no stance toward Venezuela. Leaders are different than countries, since, in order to be a recognized country, you need UN Membership for De Jure Recognition and to meet the Montevideo Convention Rules for De Facto Recognition. Leaders are by definition temporary, and don't need permanent UN Recognition. The US can certainly keep on blocking funds, but doing so results in more and more distrust toward the Dollar, which might hurt the US, especially with the rise of crypto currencies. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian response was to shift away from dollar denominated trade with Russia's neighbors. Venezuela ain't much, but if the US continues to use "muh assets" as a bullying tactic, countries will shift away from that. How'd the attempt to bully Qatar work out?

[Shofercia]

While I've had some sympathy towards many of your previous posts on Venezuela, I'd dispute the underlined sentence.

Certainly the US is better-placed to take action against Maduro's government than any European nation or alliance of European nations, that much is inarguable; but 'topple with little effort'? While that perhaps depends on what you mean by 'topple', the main evidence that it's not at all straightforward is that Maduro - despite everything that's gone wrong over the last four years - is still in power. And so long as he's backed by the armed forces and PDVSA (which increasingly overlap), he's likely to remain in power.

Maduro will fall as and when he's no longer backed by the armed forces (a term I'm using in its broadest sense); I'm not wholly convinced that cleavage will be caused by the United States as and when it does happen.

The US can effectively destroy PDVSA with a stroke of a pen.
But you are correctly the regime has been surprisingly resilient.

The key thing to note this is not really about Maduro, he is not a dictator in the sense that he has nearly absolute control. Rather he is just the public face for a cartel of Venezuela and Cuban gangsters.

Getting rid of them takes more than just getting rid of Maduro.

"The US can effectively destroy PDVSA with a stroke of a pen."

Were you, by chance, one of the planners of the Vietnam War? Iraq is mostly desert. Venezuela isn't. Once the US armed forces successfully land, there will be little to stop them from taking cities, but once you enter the countryside, it's a different ballgame. On top of that, the coalition is quite fragile, due to things like the Falkland Islands Dispute, Bolsonaro's stance toward Brazil's own Native Americans, etc. Furthermore, if it's anything like Iraq, the lives of the locals will deteriorate, meaning more recruits for the armed forces turned resistance, and the PDVSA. Trump ran on an anti-interventionist platform, and it will be the US doing most of the fighting.

[Novus America]

Hopefully Maduro is the next Ceausescu.

Unfortunately while he was removed much of his corrupt apparatus remained in place.

Also a negotiated solution where he and the key members of his gangster elite go into exile is probably more likely outcome than the military suddenly turning.

Probably something more like Marcos in the Philippines (though also much of his corrupt apparatus still remains even if less powerful than it was.

[Sneudal]

While I would prefer it don't happen, I wouldn't mind a coalition established by Colombia, Brazil, USA and other pro-Guaido countries to basically give Maduro an ultimatum to resign & allow free elections, with a promise to create a transitional government, monitored by the EU and other reputable organizations, or said coalition will intervene militarily. While I feel that Venezuela's military might resist, such a coalition could topple it and who is to say that when the defense apparatus realizes that they're in really deep trouble if Maduro doesn't resign, they might as well remove Maduro himself or defect in an invasion.

Thing is, there's no reputable organization that would be willing to monitor an election on behalf of a quasi-dictator along with his foreign supporters. And intervening against international law and in support of a 'self-delcared president' isn't the best of plans either, especially not when those who support this quasi-dictator are more or less opponents of the state in question. All you get is a lot of angry faces and a lot of instability.

Well ofcourse it wouldn't be hard to remove Maduro, but that's usually only the beginning for said conflicts.
I only adressed Afghanistan as the previous poster mentioned it; Though i doubt culture, language or religion is that much of a factor. Yes, it was to Afghanistan due to the nature of the conflict, but Venezuela would be a whole other conflict.

Same here, military operations propbably won't solve anything, and surely will make the situation worse.

I disagree with the support of the quasi-dictator, i don't see any valid reason as to why we should blindly support an undemocratic 'self-declared president'. I'd rather see pressure on Maduro through conventional means, and possibly seek mediation through states that Maduro still considers friendly (China, Russia, Cuba, Bolivia etc.).

Sure the situation with Guiado is less than ideal but he is certainly better than the drug dealing gangsters of the Chavista gang. Who absolutely need to go.

And without putting pressure on them there is no way to get them to negotiate.

Successful negotiation cannot happen without leverage.
And before you negotiate you aquire as much leverage as possible.

Certainly? Have you ever read up to some history? The vast majority of the time such people are far from better. In any case, i agree that Maduro has to go, but this quasi-dictator is no alternative.

Recognizing a quasi-dictator isn't leverage, it's actually the opposite as you give Maduro all the reason not to negotiate.

[Novus America]

While I would prefer it don't happen, I wouldn't mind a coalition established by Colombia, Brazil, USA and other pro-Guaido countries to basically give Maduro an ultimatum to resign & allow free elections, with a promise to create a transitional government, monitored by the EU and other reputable organizations, or said coalition will intervene militarily. While I feel that Venezuela's military might resist, such a coalition could topple it and who is to say that when the defense apparatus realizes that they're in really deep trouble if Maduro doesn't resign, they might as well remove Maduro himself or defect in an invasion.

Thing is, there's no reputable organization that would be willing to monitor an election on behalf of a quasi-dictator along with his foreign supporters. And intervening against international law and in support of a 'self-delcared president' isn't the best of plans either, especially not when those who support this quasi-dictator are more or less opponents of the state in question. All you get is a lot of angry faces and a lot of instability.

Sure the situation with Guiado is less than ideal but he is certainly better than the drug dealing gangsters of the Chavista gang. Who absolutely need to go.

And without putting pressure on them there is no way to get them to negotiate.

Successful negotiation cannot happen without leverage.
And before you negotiate you aquire as much leverage as possible.

Certainly? Have you ever read up to some history? The vast majority of the time such people are far from better. In any case, i agree that Maduro has to go, but this quasi-dictator is no alternative.

Recognizing a quasi-dictator isn't leverage, it's actually the opposite as you give Maduro all the reason not to negotiate.

He is not a quasi dictator, he only claims to be interim president until elections can be held.

And yes I have, the current Venezuela regime is the perhaps the worst in recent history in terms of actual economic performance. They are about as bad as it gets.
And the majority of times when a regime like this steps down things get better.

And it absolutely is leverage, over the military by allowing us to ensure Guaido is the one who can actually pay them.

And what is your alternative?

Continuing to reconfinize Maduro absolutely would not make him more likely to step down.

[Yagon]

Would the international community accept if Maduro just left with his top generals and went to go live in some distant third country, like when they Idi Amin go live in Saudi Arabia until he popped his clogs?

He could do a Web Blog Cast Pod Seriestagram or whatever people do now, and call it "Fuck all of you, the oil money took a shit, what do you want?"

[Novus America]

Would the international community accept if Maduro just left with his top generals and went to go live in some distant third country, like when they Idi Amin go live in Saudi Arabia until he popped his clogs?

He could do a Web Blog Cast Pod Seriestagram or whatever people do now, and call it "Fuck all of you, the oil money took a shit, what do you want?"

I think so.
The closest thing to this seems to be Marcos. The US offered him safe passage to retire in Hawaii in exchange for stepping down peacefully.

Idi Amin is another good example.
Although he was removed in a war.

They might not even need to far. Cuba would probably be the best place for them to go.

[Yagon]

Would the international community accept if Maduro just left with his top generals and went to go live in some distant third country, like when they Idi Amin go live in Saudi Arabia until he popped his clogs?

He could do a Web Blog Cast Pod Seriestagram or whatever people do now, and call it "Fuck all of you, the oil money took a shit, what do you want?"

I think so.
The closest thing to this seems to be Marcos. The US offered him safe passage to retire in Hawaii in exchange for stepping down peacefully.

Idi Amin is another good example.

They might not even need to far. Cuba would probably be the best place for them to go.

Nice beaches. Preferential treatment. 1957 Chevy, numbers matching, including the original manual (and probably the original air filter)...

Yeah, fuck it, I'd go.

[Novus America]

I think so.
The closest thing to this seems to be Marcos. The US offered him safe passage to retire in Hawaii in exchange for stepping down peacefully.

Idi Amin is another good example.

They might not even need to far. Cuba would probably be the best place for them to go.

Nice beaches. Preferential treatment. 1957 Chevy, numbers matching, including the original manual (and probably the original air filter)...

Yeah, fuck it, I'd go.

So long as you are amongst the wealthy elite it would not be bad.
You do not have to deal with poverty and shortages but still get the good parts.

Presumably the deal would allow them to take some of their millions with them.

Hopefully such a deal can be negotiated and they accept. Seems like it would not be so bad, retiring to a beach front mansion with servants and prostitutes and classic 50s cars and all.

[Bahktar]

Thing is, there's no reputable organization that would be willing to monitor an election on behalf of a quasi-dictator along with his foreign supporters. And intervening against international law and in support of a 'self-delcared president' isn't the best of plans either, especially not when those who support this quasi-dictator are more or less opponents of the state in question. All you get is a lot of angry faces and a lot of instability.

Guaido isn't a quasi-dictator, considering the fact that the National Assembly took power constitutionally and it's after the country has been plunged into an emigration & economic & political crisis by it's ruling government, which is suspected of having committed electoral fraud during it's most recent elections. I don't really see how Guaido is against Venezuela's existence either.

[Yagon]

Thing is, there's no reputable organization that would be willing to monitor an election on behalf of a quasi-dictator along with his foreign supporters. And intervening against international law and in support of a 'self-delcared president' isn't the best of plans either, especially not when those who support this quasi-dictator are more or less opponents of the state in question. All you get is a lot of angry faces and a lot of instability.

Guaido isn't a quasi-dictator, considering the fact that the National Assembly took power constitutionally and it's after the country has been plunged into an emigration & economic & political crisis by it's ruling government, which is suspected of having committed electoral fraud during it's most recent elections. I don't really see how Guaido is against Venezuela's existence either.

Yeah, I think Guaido has some decent constitutional backing via the national assembly. Normally I'd be distrustful of any leader backed by the US (I'd figure they'd be United Fruit Company stooges or something there to exploit the nation, but then, that's probably what any other major external faction would be looking to do), but at least Guaido seems a hell of a lot better than Maduro.

This sounds like an argument over different ways of preparing rice and beans...

[Puertollano]

Guaido isn't a quasi-dictator, considering the fact that the National Assembly took power constitutionally and it's after the country has been plunged into an emigration & economic & political crisis by it's ruling government, which is suspected of having committed electoral fraud during it's most recent elections. I don't really see how Guaido is against Venezuela's existence either.

Yeah, I think Guaido has some decent constitutional backing via the national assembly. Normally I'd be distrustful of any leader backed by the US (I'd figure they'd be United Fruit Company stooges or something there to exploit the nation, but then, that's probably what any other major external faction would be looking to do), but at least Guaido seems a hell of a lot better than Maduro.

This sounds like an argument over different ways of preparing rice and beans...

You should be distrustful. In Guaidó’s new constitution as “Interim President”, he sets the basis for the privatisation of the oil fields. Probably to Exxon Mobil.

[Loben]

Yeah, I think Guaido has some decent constitutional backing via the national assembly. Normally I'd be distrustful of any leader backed by the US (I'd figure they'd be United Fruit Company stooges or something there to exploit the nation, but then, that's probably what any other major external faction would be looking to do), but at least Guaido seems a hell of a lot better than Maduro.

This sounds like an argument over different ways of preparing rice and beans...

You should be distrustful. In Guaidó’s new constitution as “Interim President”, he sets the basis for the privatisation of the oil fields. Probably to Exxon Mobil.

and

[Yagon]

You should be distrustful. In Guaidó’s new constitution as “Interim President”, he sets the basis for the privatisation of the oil fields. Probably to Exxon Mobil.

and

And it's kind of exploitative and shitty to do that. It's like when the US/UK/BP fucked the Iranians out of self-determination with their nation's resources, so now they just went with the Ayatollahs 'cause if you fuck people hard and long they just want to start fucking back.

In robes and hats.

[Puertollano]

You should be distrustful. In Guaidó’s new constitution as “Interim President”, he sets the basis for the privatisation of the oil fields. Probably to Exxon Mobil.

and

Well, it proves that he is a shill for the US.

[Baltenstein]

and

And it's kind of exploitative and shitty to do that. It's like when the US/UK/BP fucked the Iranians out of self-determination with their nation's resources, so now they just went with the Ayatollahs 'cause if you fuck people hard and long they just want to start fucking back.

Yeah well, the bolded part does apply to both Iranian society and Venezuela, but not necessarily in the way you meant it.

[Costa Fierro]

And so long as he's backed by the armed forces and PDVSA (which increasingly overlap), he's likely to remain in power.

The military yes, but you're going to have to enlighten me on how a mismanaged petroleum company is going to keep him in power given oil production is dropping and the foreign exchange is out of whack.

[Novus America]

and

Well, it proves that he is a shill for the US.

Not really. Just proves he knows PDVSA lacks the credit, technology, equipment and personnel to do it on their own.

The current regime is already giving the fields over to Russia and China anyways.

It will not necessarily be US companies.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

Despite a drop in Cuba, Venezuelan trade because of the economic crisis of Venezuela, Venezuela is still very important economically and politically to the Cuban government, which supports Maduro, according to the President of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel (lol gulp),

http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/8959-cu ... s-cuban-fm:

HAVANA, Cuba, Jan 25 (ACN) Cuba's support for Nicolás Maduro and the Bolivarian and Chavista Revolution is and will remain invariable, wrote Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla on Thursday in Twitter.

Not for the government, not for the administration, for the revolution, as in for the eternal permanent revolution of Venezuela, just like the eternal permanent revolution of Cuba, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay.

I once or twice suggested on other Venezuelan threads, the Hispanic nations, US, Canada, the EU and EU nations and others declare the opposition the government of Venezuela, and I was put down by my fellow Nation Stater s as a bad idea, I support the recognition of the opposition as the government of Venezuela.

Part of the problem is all these nations still trade with the government and nation of Venezuela so the recognition of an opposition President and government is not worth much.

But these same western style democratic leaders of the OAS and others wont say and do the same for the other eternal permanent revolution of Cuba.

[Novus America]

Despite a drop in Cuba, Venezuelan trade because of the economic crisis of Venezuela, Venezuela is still very important economically and politically to the Cuban government, which supports Maduro, according to the President of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel (lol gulp),

http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/8959-cu ... s-cuban-fm:

HAVANA, Cuba, Jan 25 (ACN) Cuba's support for Nicolás Maduro and the Bolivarian and Chavista Revolution is and will remain invariable, wrote Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla on Thursday in Twitter.

Not for the government, not for the administration, for the revolution, as in for the eternal permanent revolution of Venezuela, just like the eternal permanent revolution of Cuba, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay.

I once or twice suggested on other Venezuelan threads, the Hispanic nations, US, Canada, the EU and EU nations and others declare the opposition the government of Venezuela, and I was put down by my fellow Nation Stater s as a bad idea, I support the recognition of the opposition as the government of Venezuela.

Part of the problem is all these nations still trade with the government and nation of Venezuela so the recognition of an opposition President and government is not worth much.

But why don't these same western style democratic leaders of the OAS and others say and do the same for the other eternal permanent revolution of Cuba?

While the loss of Venezuelan subsidies could hurt the Cuban regime, it thus far has proven extremely resilient, and the majority of Cubans clearly unable or unwilling to significantly resist.

So as much as I would like to see it go, it would be very difficult to do so without military force.

Unlike Venezuela there is no organized Cuban opposition and the government has a much stronger grip. And conditions, while bad are not declining like they are In Venezuela.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

Despite a drop in Cuba, Venezuelan trade because of the economic crisis of Venezuela, Venezuela is still very important economically and politically to the Cuban government, which supports Maduro, according to the President of Cuba Miguel Díaz-Canel (lol gulp),

http://www.cubanews.acn.cu/cuba/8959-cu ... s-cuban-fm:

HAVANA, Cuba, Jan 25 (ACN) Cuba's support for Nicolás Maduro and the Bolivarian and Chavista Revolution is and will remain invariable, wrote Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla on Thursday in Twitter.

Not for the government, not for the administration, for the revolution, as in for the eternal permanent revolution of Venezuela, just like the eternal permanent revolution of Cuba, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay.

I once or twice suggested on other Venezuelan threads, the Hispanic nations, US, Canada, the EU and EU nations and others declare the opposition the government of Venezuela, and I was put down by my fellow Nation Stater s as a bad idea, I support the recognition of the opposition as the government of Venezuela.

Part of the problem is all these nations still trade with the government and nation of Venezuela so the recognition of an opposition President and government is not worth much.

But why don't these same western style democratic leaders of the OAS and others say and do the same for the other eternal permanent revolution of Cuba?

While the loss of Venezuelan subsidies could hurt the Cuban regime, it thus far has proven extremely resilient, and the majority of Cubans clear unable or unwilling to significantly resist.

So as much as I would like to see it go, it would be very difficult to do so without military for e.

Unlike Venezuela there is no organized Cuban opposition and the government has a much stronger grip. And conditionins, while bad are not declining like they are In Venezuela.

Thank you Novus America, I consider this a very well written excellent post. I now drop this side question as I don't want either of us to get in trouble for so called thread jacking.

[US-SSR]

The Washington Post is reporting Guaido representatives are talking with Venezuelan military and civilian officials regarding a, well, let's call it a peacful transition.

The point is that it is pointless at this point to make legalistic arguments about who the "legal president" of Venezuela is. According to the Chavistas the fraudulent election makes their man the president; according to the resistance the National Assembly action makes their man the president. According to some other nations Guaido is president, according to others Maduro is, eight days from now most of the EU might change its mind. For the moment Maduro seems to retain the loyalty of the security forces but there are hints and whispers that that might be in jeopardy. But in the nations that recognize Guaido, Maduro has no access to Venezuelan financial or other assets (for our dabbing pigeon friend, and as noted above, that is the main significance of the US et. al's recognition of Guaido). For those of us with no skin in the game it may make an interesting sort of moot international court discussion, but without any practical effect.

That's an opinion, not a point. The EU countries who called on Maduro to hold election, implicitly recognized him as leader. Most of the World either recognizes Maduro as leader, or has no stance toward Venezuela. Leaders are different than countries, since, in order to be a recognized country, you need UN Membership for De Jure Recognition and to meet the Montevideo Convention Rules for De Facto Recognition. Leaders are by definition temporary, and don't need permanent UN Recognition. The US can certainly keep on blocking funds, but doing so results in more and more distrust toward the Dollar, which might hurt the US, especially with the rise of crypto currencies. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian response was to shift away from dollar denominated trade with Russia's neighbors. Venezuela ain't much, but if the US continues to use "muh assets" as a bullying tactic, countries will shift away from that. How'd the attempt to bully Qatar work out?

I've read this twice and I confess I still don't understand where it's coming from or what the import is. Let's take it a bit at at time:

That's an opinion, not a point. The EU countries who called on Maduro to hold election, implicitly recognized him as leader.

The EU countries that are calling for elections do recognize Maduro as leader. If there are no elections that will change.

Most of the World either recognizes Maduro as leader, or has no stance toward Venezuela. Leaders are different than countries, since, in order to be a recognized country, you need UN Membership for De Jure Recognition and to meet the Montevideo Convention Rules for De Facto Recognition. Leaders are by definition temporary, and don't need permanent UN Recognition.

Most of the countries of the world do not host assets of the nation of Venezuela, so it's immaterial who they recognize as its head of state. No one is talking about not recognizing Venezuela. Those countries that recognize Guaido as its head of state still recognize Venezuela as a sovereign nation. The dispute is who represents Venezuela, speaks for it internationally, controls its assets hosted abroad, etc. btw the decision to recognize or not recognize a government or to recognize a government different from that another nation might recognize is each sovereign nation's decision to make for itself, it does not depend on UN membership or any international convention.

The US can certainly keep on blocking funds, but doing so results in more and more distrust toward the Dollar, which might hurt the US, especially with the rise of crypto currencies. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian response was to shift away from dollar denominated trade with Russia's neighbors. Venezuela ain't much, but if the US continues to use "muh assets" as a bullying tactic, countries will shift away from that. How'd the attempt to bully Qatar work out?

Wot mate? Crypto currencies may be proliferating but they fulfill none of the requirements of currencies (being liquid, easily convertable, relatively stable stores of value, etc., etc.). They are not about to replace the Yankee Dollar or any other actual currency. Who the US chooses to recognize as head of state of Venezuela is not about to have any significant effect on the USD's role as the primary world reserve currency (though as I've argued elsewhere continued erosion in US prestige and influence by the most corrupt, venal, callous, feckless administration in its history very well might). Also the US is not "blocking" Venezuelan assets, it's simply cutting off the Maduro regime's access to them in favor of the Guaido faction. As for Qatar, iirc prices of consumer goods are continuing to rise there, though its neighbors' actions haven't had the desired result of making the Qatari government more amenable to their desires and probably never will.

[Shofercia]

The Washington Post is reporting Guaido representatives are talking with Venezuelan military and civilian officials regarding a, well, let's call it a peacful transition.

That's an opinion, not a point. The EU countries who called on Maduro to hold election, implicitly recognized him as leader. Most of the World either recognizes Maduro as leader, or has no stance toward Venezuela. Leaders are different than countries, since, in order to be a recognized country, you need UN Membership for De Jure Recognition and to meet the Montevideo Convention Rules for De Facto Recognition. Leaders are by definition temporary, and don't need permanent UN Recognition. The US can certainly keep on blocking funds, but doing so results in more and more distrust toward the Dollar, which might hurt the US, especially with the rise of crypto currencies. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian response was to shift away from dollar denominated trade with Russia's neighbors. Venezuela ain't much, but if the US continues to use "muh assets" as a bullying tactic, countries will shift away from that. How'd the attempt to bully Qatar work out?

I've read this twice and I confess I still don't understand where it's coming from or what the import is. Let's take it a bit at at time:

That's an opinion, not a point. The EU countries who called on Maduro to hold election, implicitly recognized him as leader.

The EU countries that are calling for elections do recognize Maduro as leader. If there are no elections that will change.

Meaning in your opinion, the legality is disputed. In the opinion of actual countries who might play a role in a peaceful transition, he's still the leader. Guess whose opinion matters more?

Most of the World either recognizes Maduro as leader, or has no stance toward Venezuela. Leaders are different than countries, since, in order to be a recognized country, you need UN Membership for De Jure Recognition and to meet the Montevideo Convention Rules for De Facto Recognition. Leaders are by definition temporary, and don't need permanent UN Recognition.

Most of the countries of the world do not host assets of the nation of Venezuela, so it's immaterial who they recognize as its head of state. No one is talking about not recognizing Venezuela. Those countries that recognize Guaido as its head of state still recognize Venezuela as a sovereign nation. The dispute is who represents Venezuela, speaks for it internationally, controls its assets hosted abroad, etc. btw the decision to recognize or not recognize a government or to recognize a government different from that another nation might recognize is each sovereign nation's decision to make for itself, it does not depend on UN membership or any international convention.

The decision to recognize or not recognize a leader is a bit more complex than just the will of the recognizing nation. It'd be a bit silly for the UK to not recognize Trump as US President after the 2016 election, or not recognize Putin as Russia's President after the 2018 presidential election. If in doubt, the recognition goes to the old regime. Right now, the countries recognizing Guaido are taking a huge risk. If his faction loses in this struggle, Venezuela can pull out assets from said countries as punishment, since, as you said, they still recognize Venezuela as a sovereign nation.

The US can certainly keep on blocking funds, but doing so results in more and more distrust toward the Dollar, which might hurt the US, especially with the rise of crypto currencies. When the US imposed sanctions on Russia, the Russian response was to shift away from dollar denominated trade with Russia's neighbors. Venezuela ain't much, but if the US continues to use "muh assets" as a bullying tactic, countries will shift away from that. How'd the attempt to bully Qatar work out?

Wot mate? Crypto currencies may be proliferating but they fulfill none of the requirements of currencies (being liquid, easily convertable, relatively stable stores of value, etc., etc.). They are not about to replace the Yankee Dollar or any other actual currency. Who the US chooses to recognize as head of state of Venezuela is not about to have any significant effect on the USD's role as the primary world reserve currency (though as I've argued elsewhere continued erosion in US prestige and influence by the most corrupt, venal, callous, feckless administration in its history very well might). Also the US is not "blocking" Venezuelan assets, it's simply cutting off the Maduro regime's access to them in favor of the Guaido faction. As for Qatar, iirc prices of consumer goods are continuing to rise there, though its neighbors' actions haven't had the desired result of making the Qatari government more amenable to their desires and probably never will.

Let me explain what I meant, as my brief paragraph was a tad too brief to get my point across. Among the currencies, the Dollar remains the leading currency, although we are seeing a shift from the Dollar. Additionally, you don't need a currency to make a trade in the digital age, especially in service driven markets. What I was referring to, was the use of currencies to store funds. You don't need to hold funds in a currency, or a country. So if Maduro's faction wins, as retaliation, they can move their funds from Dollar to Yuan, and from the US/EU to China. One of the storage vehicles could be crypto-currency. I'm not saying that it'll compete with the Dollar, but every little chip against the Dollar can hurt.

Regarding Trump being the worst president, really? I'd argue that Buchanan, who boldly led America into a Civil War, was worse, and I can think of a few others worse than Trump. Wilson was so horrendous, that after his leadership, it took a Great Depression to get a Democrat elected. The elections of 1920, 1924, and 1928 were those of Republican Domination. Hoover saw a depression coming, and failed to stop it. And while Qatari cost of goods rises, Qatar is slowly realigning itself with Iran. Talk about a major failure by the GCC.