La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Bulgar Rouge]

Maduro is incompetent, but Guaido seldom holds any legitimacy. Foreign backing by states with dubious "allies" won't change the situation much either. Overall, things are headed for a civil war.

[Sneudal]

This would be the best, and at the same time most disgusting thing Trump could possibly do

So many people would whip out their dicks/pussies and fap with the president.

Oh boy, i can already see it happening, like one of those early morning gymnastic shows, but then a fap version with El Presidente XD

Yes, after undergoing the full process of impeachment and removal. My point is that no such process was undergone in Venezuela. The parliament simply declared a new President because they claim the current one is illegitimate.

Show of hands, who thinks Maduro fairly won the elections?

Nobody, yet there's a reason as to why we don't convict people based on a certain opinion.

[Byzconia]

Yes, after undergoing the full process of impeachment and removal. My point is that no such process was undergone in Venezuela. The parliament simply declared a new President because they claim the current one is illegitimate.

Show of hands, who thinks Maduro fairly won the elections?

Few people, but that's irrelevant. This is why we require evidence during trials, rather than opinions.

[Kowani]

Show of hands, who thinks Maduro fairly won the elections?

Few people, but that's irrelevant. This is why we require evidence during trials, rather than opinions.

Let’s see how sketchy they were.
-Invoked way ahead of schedule.
-Abstention rate of 54%.
-Maduro had just illegally reworked the Supreme Tribunal.
-Neither opposition party got a single state.
-The company who made the machines shut down, saying they couldn’t be trusted.
-The oversight committee is packed with cronies and sympathizers.
-Maduro literally bribed people into voting for him-with food! (Which, I’ll remind you, never materialized.)
-Maduro violated the law and used government resources during an election in order to get more votes.

[Loben]

This would be the best, and at the same time most disgusting thing Trump could possibly do

What the hell, we've never had a president do that before. Gotta break that streak sometime.

some streaks are bound to end; the undertakers, Jimmie Johnsons....but i think we can let the aforementioned one slide.

[Senkaku]

I'm surprised Maduro hasn't had him arrested/killed yet lol

[Northern Davincia]

I'm surprised Maduro hasn't had him arrested/killed yet lol

We'll give him credit for trying.

[Shofercia]

Venezuela's foreign minister levels a passionate attack against U.S. and Europe

And of course the tone deaf award goes to an American:

The newly appointed U.S. envoy leading the Trump administration’s efforts in Venezuela was quick to respond. Elliott Abrams... Abrams then turned the accusation of oppressive government and interference on the Maduro regime. “Democracy,” Abrams said, “never needs to be imposed. It is tyranny that needs to be imposed.”

So what was it that the US was imposing in Iraq? I thought that Trump was trolling Bolton by telling him to end wars, but that's turning out not to be the case. Damn. It'd be fun if Bolton was trolled.

[Thermodolia]

Venezuela's foreign minister levels a passionate attack against U.S. and Europe

And of course the tone deaf award goes to an American:

The newly appointed U.S. envoy leading the Trump administration’s efforts in Venezuela was quick to respond. Elliott Abrams... Abrams then turned the accusation of oppressive government and interference on the Maduro regime. “Democracy,” Abrams said, “never needs to be imposed. It is tyranny that needs to be imposed.”

So what was it that the US was imposing in Iraq? I thought that Trump was trolling Bolton by telling him to end wars, but that's turning out not to be the case. Damn. It'd be fun if Bolton was trolled.

I’m pretty sure that it was imperialism and needless death we where imposing in Iraq

[Northern Davincia]

And of course the tone deaf award goes to an American:



So what was it that the US was imposing in Iraq? I thought that Trump was trolling Bolton by telling him to end wars, but that's turning out not to be the case. Damn. It'd be fun if Bolton was trolled.

I’m pretty sure that it was imperialism and needless death we where imposing in Iraq

And a touch of democracy.

[Korresia]

Venezuela: Battle Royale

[Northern Davincia]

Venezuela: Battle Royale

Pretty much, though the Gran Columbia DLC is just around the corner.

[Rio Cana]

They were talking about this on a radio program this morning. They said that none of the 120 non-aligned nations have recognized the Ven. legislator the US, some in Latin America and the EU. want to take over in Ven. I should point out that until later this year Maduro is the acting secretary-general of the non-aligned nations. They also mentioned that this talk of thousands of people on the streets of Caracas fighting and so on is not really what is happening. After all they point out if this was true why were there 6000 to 9000 people attending a baseball game. If things were out of control people would stay in there homes.

Some foreign news sources are saying that the Lions of Caracas who are playing the Cardinals of Lara State wanted to postpone the baseball game in respect to the protesters because of so called government atrocities against protesters. However, the Venezuelan professional baseball league and the Cardinals of Lara want the games to continue. If the Lions do not play then they forfeit. In this final series, the Cardinals have been crushing the Lions. Winners gets to go to the 2019 Caribbean Baseball Series which were to be played this year in Ven. But it seems it might be moved to another nation. Probably the Dominican Republic if not Mexico.

The following from 3 days ago. First game which was in Caracas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGn6xbFyW6k
Same stadium but 2 days ago. Second game. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6ZXgTVYFV4

Should mention that the radio hosts then said France has had weeks of violent protest so why does not the French leader ask for new elections.

[Shofercia]

God-Emperor Bolsonaro calls Maduro "a cancer" in a video message and says he will do "everything I can to restore freedom to Venezuela" and "re-establish order and democracy" after his ministers meet with Venezuelan opposition leaders.

Brazil's in pretty bad shape. I doubt that adding a war would improve things. Bad Bolsonaro! Bad!

In regards to what Zukerx said over at the MAGAthread:

The answer is that until Bolsonaro became president, Venezuela and Brazil were fairly close. Now, however, Bolsonaro has done a complete 180 in terms of regional policy as he pines for the days of the Condors. Brazil would likely intervene in such a conflict, and if they do, possible American participation becomes a practical impossibility seeing as the authoritarian right leaders need to stick together.

Thanks for responding here, I wasn't entirely sure where to put it since it somewhat tied into Trump. I see now, so we could see a regional conflict in South America, especially since Venezuela is allied with Bolivia and others. However, Russia and Iran also have close ties to Venezuela, and their governments aren't left-wing (calling them far-right is a stretch, but you get the point). It begs to question whether it devolves into a proxy war as well.

Russia also has missile technology on par with the US, and there's only one major road tying Brazil to Venezuela, which can easily be destroyed. So unless Brazil has an army of flying delorians, or experience in conducting amphibious operations under fire, Brazil won't be intervening successfully.

Oh, I don't mean a full-fledged nuclear conflict, I just mean something like Vietnam or Angola.

Oh well even then due to the US naval power China and Russia will have a very hard time getting supplies and men to South America meaning I think any war would be quick hopefully.

If the US attacks Russian transport ships, what's to stop Russia from retaliating? And what NATO states are interested in going to war in Venezuela? They will write a very strongly worded letter, and then stand down. Trump ran on an anti-interventionist stance, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, and the economy doesn't grow, (even if it stagnates,) the loss of the non-interventionists will be the end of Trump's reelection run. He's not going to make any military moves toward Venezuela, but he'll probably throw funds at the opposition.

I think what will happen is that someone will sit down with Bolsonaro and explain to him how this whole warfare thing works, because he sounds like an armchair general. Then he'll stop talking about militarily intervening, and sounding like an idiot. If there will be a Civil War, it'll be supported by outside forces by proxy. That's it.

[Thermodolia]

God-Emperor Bolsonaro calls Maduro "a cancer" in a video message and says he will do "everything I can to restore freedom to Venezuela" and "re-establish order and democracy" after his ministers meet with Venezuelan opposition leaders.

Brazil's in pretty bad shape. I doubt that adding a war would improve things. Bad Bolsonaro! Bad!

Thanks for responding here, I wasn't entirely sure where to put it since it somewhat tied into Trump. I see now, so we could see a regional conflict in South America, especially since Venezuela is allied with Bolivia and others. However, Russia and Iran also have close ties to Venezuela, and their governments aren't left-wing (calling them far-right is a stretch, but you get the point). It begs to question whether it devolves into a proxy war as well.

Russia also has missile technology on par with the US, and there's only one major road tying Brazil to Venezuela, which can easily be destroyed. So unless Brazil has an army of flying delorians, or experience in conducting amphibious operations under fire, Brazil won't be intervening successfully.

Oh well even then due to the US naval power China and Russia will have a very hard time getting supplies and men to South America meaning I think any war would be quick hopefully.

If the US attacks Russian transport ships, what's to stop Russia from retaliating? And what NATO states are interested in going to war in Venezuela? They will write a very strongly worded letter, and then stand down. Trump ran on an anti-interventionist stance, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, and the economy doesn't grow, (even if it stagnates,) the loss of the non-interventionists will be the end of Trump's reelection run. He's not going to make any military moves toward Venezuela, but he'll probably throw funds at the opposition.

I think what will happen is that someone will sit down with Bolsonaro and explain to him how this whole warfare thing works, because he sounds like an armchair general. Then he'll stop talking about militarily intervening, and sounding like an idiot. If there will be a Civil War, it'll be supported by outside forces by proxy. That's it.

This is assuming Russia even decideds to get involved. Which it probably won’t.

Russia can’t wage a war across a massive ocean like it used to. Syria is right in their backyard, Venezuela is in an entire different neighborhood. The only other nation I could see intervening is China

[Sneudal]

Brazil's in pretty bad shape. I doubt that adding a war would improve things. Bad Bolsonaro! Bad!




Russia also has missile technology on par with the US, and there's only one major road tying Brazil to Venezuela, which can easily be destroyed. So unless Brazil has an army of flying delorians, or experience in conducting amphibious operations under fire, Brazil won't be intervening successfully.




If the US attacks Russian transport ships, what's to stop Russia from retaliating? And what NATO states are interested in going to war in Venezuela? They will write a very strongly worded letter, and then stand down. Trump ran on an anti-interventionist stance, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, and the economy doesn't grow, (even if it stagnates,) the loss of the non-interventionists will be the end of Trump's reelection run. He's not going to make any military moves toward Venezuela, but he'll probably throw funds at the opposition.

I think what will happen is that someone will sit down with Bolsonaro and explain to him how this whole warfare thing works, because he sounds like an armchair general. Then he'll stop talking about militarily intervening, and sounding like an idiot. If there will be a Civil War, it'll be supported by outside forces by proxy. That's it.

This is assuming Russia even decideds to get involved. Which it probably won’t.

Russia can’t wage a war across a massive ocean like it used to. Syria is right in their backyard, Venezuela is in an entire different neighborhood. The only other nation I could see intervening is China

China won't be bothered though, It's Chinese policy not to interfere in such situations. Once that policy changes a lot in the world will change with it. If anything, we can only hope Cuba and/or Bolivia will talk some sense into Maduro, i suppose it's really the only peaceful way for him to step down (or hold new, proper elections), especially now that the military reaffirmed its support for him.

[Rio Cana]

This is assuming Russia even decideds to get involved. Which it probably won’t.

Russia can’t wage a war across a massive ocean like it used to. Syria is right in their backyard, Venezuela is in an entire different neighborhood. The only other nation I could see intervening is China

China won't be bothered though, It's Chinese policy not to interfere in such situations. Once that policy changes a lot in the world will change with it. If anything, we can only hope Cuba and/or Bolivia will talk some sense into Maduro, i suppose it's really the only peaceful way for him to step down (or hold new, proper elections), especially now that the military reaffirmed its support for him.

Seems you missed this part - https://venezuelanalysis.com/News/13647

[Novus America]

Some good news.
Refusing to withdraw our embassy worked,
Maduro backed down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... lomats.amp

Also Venezuela’s military attaché to the US and most of the Venezuelan embassy aligns with Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamih ... 29345.html

Finally the EU has given Maduro 8 days to hold free and fair elections, or the EU will recognize Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1PK0D6

[Philjia]

Hopefully Maduro won't simply be swapped out for another strongman wannabe dictator, and the Venezuelan centre left can sort out the shattered economy without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

[Shofercia]

Brazil's in pretty bad shape. I doubt that adding a war would improve things. Bad Bolsonaro! Bad!

...Russia also has missile technology on par with the US, and there's only one major road tying Brazil to Venezuela, which can easily be destroyed. So unless Brazil has an army of flying delorians, or experience in conducting amphibious operations under fire, Brazil won't be intervening successfully...

If the US attacks Russian transport ships, what's to stop Russia from retaliating? And what NATO states are interested in going to war in Venezuela? They will write a very strongly worded letter, and then stand down. Trump ran on an anti-interventionist stance, and if the Democrats nominate a good candidate, and the economy doesn't grow, (even if it stagnates,) the loss of the non-interventionists will be the end of Trump's reelection run. He's not going to make any military moves toward Venezuela, but he'll probably throw funds at the opposition.

I think what will happen is that someone will sit down with Bolsonaro and explain to him how this whole warfare thing works, because he sounds like an armchair general. Then he'll stop talking about militarily intervening, and sounding like an idiot. If there will be a Civil War, it'll be supported by outside forces by proxy. That's it.

This is assuming Russia even decideds to get involved. Which it probably won’t.

Russia can’t wage a war across a massive ocean like it used to. Syria is right in their backyard, Venezuela is in an entire different neighborhood. The only other nation I could see intervening is China

Syria's not exactly in the backyard, more like a neighbor's backyard, but you're right in that Russia won't intervene in Venezuela without China. That said, a single special forces brigade can block chokepoints, preventing the Brazilians from entering, and said brigade can be transported by air, and dressed up as Venezuelans. The smart thing to do for the US is to fund the opposition. The dumb thing to do is military operations, and listening to some of Bolsonaro's suggestions.

Some good news.
Refusing to withdraw our embassy worked,
Maduro backed down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... lomats.amp

Also Venezuela’s military attaché to the US and most of the Venezuelan embassy aligns with Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamih ... 29345.html

Finally the EU has given Maduro 8 days to hold free and fair elections, or the EU will recognize Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1PK0D6

Not exactly. The EU's stance here is surprisingly reasonable. They're giving Maduro eight days to plan to hold elections, or as the EU phrases it, "to call for elections" which can take up to six months, perhaps even more. Looks like the EU is trying to deescalate tensions. This is new. First the EU sided with Russia over Kerch Strait, now the EU is trying to stop Bolsonaro the hotheaded one; it's almost as if they're starting to turn back to the Realist Foreign Policy Model.

[US-SSR]

A couple deadlines have been set today. The Maduro regime is backing off its "order" expelling US diplomats in favor of a 30-day period to negotiate a "US Interests Section" (an arrangement whereby a third country represents one that does not have formal diplomatic relations with the host). The drawdown of nonessential US Embassy Caracas staff and dependents continues.

EU nations including Spain, France, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands (which has military bases on its islands off the Venezuelan coast) have said they will recognize Guaido as head of state if there is no plan for free and fair elections in Venezuela within eight days. The upshot of this, as with the US, is that the Maduro regime would no longer have access to Venezuelan financial assets in those countries.

Lots of rhetoric, accusations, etc. flying back and forth at the UN Security Council earlier today, all of which amounts to pretty much nothing. Expect the US to rely on the Organization of American States for any international diplomatic cover it might need.

As for who the "legal" president of Venezuela might be, I'm afraid we've moved beyond legalities. Arguing about who started it is a bit of who-struck-John. Increasingly it seems Maduro is losing international legitimacy -- no one much cares about the Non-Aligned Movement any more btw -- while Guaido has yet to demonstrate support from the security forces without which his claim to assert any authority must be in doubt.

So we're pretty much where we started, with the best outcome being some kind of negotiated solution to the crisis leading to a new election or some other decision point a decisive majority of Venezuelan society would accept, the worst being civil war/insurrection and a collapse into stasis, and the most likely falling somewhere in between, hopefully closer to the former than the latter. The US hasn't got the forces in the region to overcome a determined resistance imo and Russia isn't about to undertake what would be a long and costly military expedition well out of its sphere of military influence so I don't see any danger of proxy war.

[Puertollano]

Some good news.
Refusing to withdraw our embassy worked,
Maduro backed down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... lomats.amp

Also Venezuela’s military attaché to the US and most of the Venezuelan embassy aligns with Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamih ... 29345.html

Finally the EU has given Maduro 8 days to hold free and fair elections, or the EU will recognize Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1PK0D6

The Venezuelan Embassy in US Twitter account still seems to be entirely pro-Maduro.

[Kowani]

Some good news.
Refusing to withdraw our embassy worked,
Maduro backed down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnew ... lomats.amp

Also Venezuela’s military attaché to the US and most of the Venezuelan embassy aligns with Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.miamih ... 29345.html

Finally the EU has given Maduro 8 days to hold free and fair elections, or the EU will recognize Guaido.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... SKCN1PK0D6

The Venezuelan Embassy in US Twitter account still seems to be entirely pro-Maduro.

Wouldn’t be surprised if the ambassador’s families were held at gunpoint to discourage defections.

[Shofercia]

As for who the "legal" president of Venezuela might be, I'm afraid we've moved beyond legalities. Arguing about who started it is a bit of who-struck-John. Increasingly it seems Maduro is losing international legitimacy -- no one much cares about the Non-Aligned Movement any more btw -- while Guaido has yet to demonstrate support from the security forces without which his claim to assert any authority must be in doubt.

Trump said something doesn't mean a loss of legitimacy. The EU member states wouldn't be asking Maduro to hold an election, if they didn't think he was the leader, meaning that the above quote is in conflict with this one:

EU nations including Spain, France, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands (which has military bases on its islands off the Venezuelan coast) have said they will recognize Guaido as head of state if there is no plan for free and fair elections in Venezuela within eight days. The upshot of this, as with the US, is that the Maduro regime would no longer have access to Venezuelan financial assets in those countries.

Odd. They both seem to be by the same poster, from the same post, and yet they're in conflict. I can ask the mods to warn you, if you flame me on NSG. Doesn't make me a mod. The EU nations are sending a conditional request to Maduro, meaning that they still recognize him as leader.

[Costa Fierro]

Not exactly. The EU's stance here is surprisingly reasonable. They're giving Maduro eight days to plan to hold elections, or as the EU phrases it, "to call for elections" which can take up to six months, perhaps even more. Looks like the EU is trying to deescalate tensions. This is new. First the EU sided with Russia over Kerch Strait, now the EU is trying to stop Bolsonaro the hotheaded one; it's almost as if they're starting to turn back to the Realist Foreign Policy Model.

The problem is that they have no way of enforcing free and fair elections in Venezuela. There's no teeth. Maduro could easily say "these elections are free and fair" when they're blatantly not (this has happened before) and the EU has no way of proving this to be the case or even retaliating beyond recognition of an opposition figure.

That's what gets me about all these concerns and criticisms for the recognition of Guiado: there's absolutely no way anything will happen beyond that recognition.