La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Valrifell]

-snip-

Go away. You'll accomplish nothing.

Don't reply to spam, even if you censored the quote yourself you're just giving them the attention they want.

[West Leas Oros 2]

Heil Hitler!
Sieg Heil!

[Baltenstein]

Russia is helping Maduro

https://in.reuters.com/article/venezuel ... NKCN1PJ228

Private military contractors who do secret missions for Russia flew into Venezuela in the past few days to beef up security for President Nicolas Maduro in the face of U.S.-backed opposition protests, according to two people close to them.

Little Green Men in Caracas confirmed

[-Ocelot-]

Russia is helping Maduro

https://in.reuters.com/article/venezuel ... NKCN1PJ228

Little Green Men in Caracas confirmed

Why does Russia support Maduro, though? What do they have to gain from this?

[Valrifell]

Little Green Men in Caracas confirmed

Why does Russia support Maduro, though? What do they have to gain from this?

Russia is positioning themselves as competitors to the American world order. Putin wants that sweet, sweet, international prestige that can only be gained by staring the global superpower in the face and saying "fuck you!" in their own backyard.

[Torrocca]

Little Green Men in Caracas confirmed

Why does Russia support Maduro, though? What do they have to gain from this?

Probably because they enjoy fucking with the US.

[The Tomerlands]

The US government (even before Trump) is the main reason all of this economic and political turmoil is happening in Venezuela. Trump's choice to choose the opposition president is probably going to create a civil war.

Because the USA is surely at fault for hyperinflation, mass emigration, soaring hunger, disease and falling oil prices in 2015, ah, yes..

No.

I said they were the main reason, not the only reason. You seriously going to tell me the increasing embargos the US government has been putting on Venezuela for years now hasn't caused any economic problems in the country?

[-Ocelot-]

Why does Russia support Maduro, though? What do they have to gain from this?

Probably because they enjoy fucking with the US.

I don't get how the US will be negatively affected if Russians somehow manage to keep Maduro in power. There must be more to this.

[LiberNovusAmericae]

Because the USA is surely at fault for hyperinflation, mass emigration, soaring hunger, disease and falling oil prices in 2015, ah, yes..

No.

I said they were the main reason, not the only reason. You seriously going to tell me the increasing embargos the US government has been putting on Venezuela for years now hasn't caused any economic problems in the country?

We are going to tell you that every single time socialists fuck up, it is not the U.S's fault. Venezuela has other trade partners, and the socialists have mismanaged the economy.

[Torrocca]

Probably because they enjoy fucking with the US.

I don't get how the US will be negatively affected if Russians somehow manage to keep Maduro in power. There must be more to this.

I mean, the US gov't's pride will be hurt.

[Shrillland]

Probably because they enjoy fucking with the US.

I don't get how the US will be negatively affected if Russians somehow manage to keep Maduro in power. There must be more to this.

Russia has a strategic ally and a major petrostate on their side as long as Maduro's in charge, a counter-balance(alongside Iran) in OPEC to the US-backed Saudis and Kuwaitis. Without Maduro, Putin's only reliable allies in the region are Morales and Castro/Diaz-Canel, neither of which have Venezuela's resources.

[Novus America]

Because the USA is surely at fault for hyperinflation, mass emigration, soaring hunger, disease and falling oil prices in 2015, ah, yes..

No.

I said they were the main reason, not the only reason. You seriously going to tell me the increasing embargos the US government has been putting on Venezuela for years now hasn't caused any economic problems in the country?

What “embargos”?
We still are Venezuela’s biggest buyer and supplier of oil.
We only restricted the ability of Maduro to incur additional debt, and more debt obviously would not help Venezuela considering it cannot pay its current debts.

[Rio Cana]

I don't get how the US will be negatively affected if Russians somehow manage to keep Maduro in power. There must be more to this.

Russia has a strategic ally and a major petrostate on their side as long as Maduro's in charge, a counter-balance(alongside Iran) in OPEC to the US-backed Saudis and Kuwaitis. Without Maduro, Putin's only reliable allies in the region are Morales and Castro/Diaz-Canel, neither of which have Venezuela's resources.

In return for loans, the Venezuelan government guaranteed entire oil and gas wells to Russia. Russia stands to win big if the Ven. do not pay. The same goes for China. If Maduro is kicked out both Russia and China know they could face a big problem if the new govt. decides to tear up those agreements without much compensation.

Russia is owed $3.15 billion. China is owed $23 billion out of $65 billion they loaned Venezuela.

Story on Russia and Ven. - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... 90ee10710a

Story on China and Ven. - https://www.businessinsider.com/china-c ... try-2018-4

[West Leas Oros 2]

I don't get how the US will be negatively affected if Russians somehow manage to keep Maduro in power. There must be more to this.

I mean, the US gov't's pride will be hurt.

Government Pride is pretty important to a lot of people.

[NeoCzechoSlovakia]

Hopefully Maduro's reign will end soon without much bloodshed (let's face it, a level of bloodshed is a given. Dictators seldom just leave office when told to) or necessity for international intervention.

Most communist regimes fell without bloodshed in 1989.

[Wallenburg]

Hopefully Maduro's reign will end soon without much bloodshed (let's face it, a level of bloodshed is a given. Dictators seldom just leave office when told to) or necessity for international intervention.

Most communist regimes fell without bloodshed in 1989.

All South American socialist regimes were overthrown with lots of bloodshed.

[Rio Cana]

Almost forgot. Russian interest in Ven. is also kind of military. They want to base strategic bombers on the Ven. Carribbean island of La Orchila. Its located about 160 km. (100 miles) North of the Ven. mainland.

North of this island after you leave Ven. territorial waters and exclusive economic zone (yellow in the following map) you enter the followings exclusive economic zone and and territorial waters - https://notesfromthemargin.files.wordpr ... land-2.jpg


Read this on that island - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Orchila

[US-SSR]

Little Green Men in Caracas confirmed

Why does Russia support Maduro, though? What do they have to gain from this?

Since US arms sales to Venezuela were cut off post-Chavez the Russians stepped in. Other financial and political ties naturally followed. They lose all that potentially if Maduro tanks. That being said I don't see a couple hundred Russian-backed mercenaries changing the balance if the local security forces turn opposition. More like insurance against random rogue operators it seems to me.

Wasn't the Wagner group the guys who got their butts kicked when they moved against our side in the Middle East?

I feel that the United States should stay out of this whole mess: while I am no defender of Maduro, the fact that the leader has the backing of the United States makes things a bit suspicious: even if Juan Guaidó does not fully align himself with the US, the fact that the US is supporting him means that if Guaidó does take office, it'll be unclear whether he is the legitimate leader of Venezuela until an election is held.

So basically, I'd wait until Guaidó actually controls Caracas and other major Venezuelan cities before I'll recognize him as the legitimate government. And really, Canada's decision to recognize him seems like we're just blindly following the US in whatever dumb shit it decides to do, even as it is trying its best to undermine us.

My understanding is that the constitutional provision Guaido used makes him "interim president" until elections are held, so it's conceivable he wouldn't run and someone else would "take office." I'm not holding my breath waiting for that to happen in 30 days tho.

Other developments today include a UN Security Council meeting set for tomorrow which US Secretary of State Pompeo and his new point man on Venezuela, convicted withholder of Iran-Contra evidence Elliot Abrams, plan to attend. Abrams was Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs in the GHW Bush administration and reportedly was former Sec'y Tillerson's pick for Deputy Secretary of State until the White House vetoed him for writing an anti-Trump screed during the 2016 campaign. Seems the Republican foreign policy bench, well, just ain't all that deep, at least when it comes to South and Central America...

[Frievolk]

Hopefully Maduro's reign will end soon without much bloodshed (let's face it, a level of bloodshed is a given. Dictators seldom just leave office when told to) or necessity for international intervention.

Most communist regimes fell without bloodshed in 1989.

Most dictatorial regimes however, do fall with some level of bloodshed.

[US-SSR]

Most communist regimes fell without bloodshed in 1989.

Most dictatorial regimes however, do fall with some level of bloodshed.

Though there has been little enough of that in Venezuela to date I'd feel better if it didn't look so much from where I sit that the various plans to install Guaido as interim president are currently at the level of "collect underpants."

[The Republic of Fore]

Here's hoping the US doesn't decide that we need to launch an invasion.

[Risottia]

Problem is that if the presidential elections weren't democratic, we can't really consider the parliamentary elections to have been democratic.

The only solution would be the UN taking over and rebuilding the local institutions from scratch. But that ain't going to happen.

We can consider those democratic since Maduro didn't do anything to them back in '15. He thought that PSUV would win instead of getting crushed. When they did get crushed, he set up his constituent assembly to bypass them.

Says which unbiased reviewer?

It's not like you can really trust the local judiciary, after one of its top officials ran away claiming he had helped cover electoral fraud out of fear. It's a year-zero situation.

[Othelos]

Because the USA is surely at fault for hyperinflation, mass emigration, soaring hunger, disease and falling oil prices in 2015, ah, yes..

No.

I said they were the main reason, not the only reason. You seriously going to tell me the increasing embargos the US government has been putting on Venezuela for years now hasn't caused any economic problems in the country?

While the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela, this is a reaction to activities of the venezuelan government that have negatively affected the rights or well-being of venezuelan residents.

To blame the U.S. for Venezuela's ills is like blaming winter on ice. You are mixing up cause and effect.

[Painisia]

There might be a big chance that Russia and the US might start a proxy war in Venezuela. Putin wants his pal Maduro to be a resistant fortress towards American influence

[Imperializt Russia]

Hopefully Maduro's reign will end soon without much bloodshed (let's face it, a level of bloodshed is a given. Dictators seldom just leave office when told to) or necessity for international intervention.

Most communist regimes fell without bloodshed in 1989.

Well, that's not strictly how it happened, is it.
It was one "regime", the Russian Soviet regime, on eastern Europe.

Most of Eastern Europe was very happy to leave that regime in the 1980s.
Oh, and a reminder that Russian tanks shelled the parliament building in 1993.