La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Crisconsin]

My skin crawled when the news came. .>.

My mom and brother were both born in Venezuela

[Hammer Britannia]

My skin crawled when the news came. .>.

My mom and brother were both born in Venezuela

I'm not Venezuelan, but some of my online friends live in Venezuela. One of them began running away before the coup even started, but the rest I can only hope for the best for.

[Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores]

My skin crawled when the news came. .>.

My mom and brother were both born in Venezuela

Lets hope the coup succeeds, Viva Venezuela Libre.

[Crisconsin]

My skin crawled when the news came. .>.

My mom and brother were both born in Venezuela

I'm not Venezuelan, but some of my online friends live in Venezuela. One of them began running away before the coup even started, but the rest I can only hope for the best for.

My parents left for Portugal before the Caracazo would gain traction. Ideally, a “Carnation Revolution” style coup would be the best case scenario.

My skin crawled when the news came. .>.

My mom and brother were both born in Venezuela

Lets hope the coup succeeds, Viva Venezuela Libre.

Abajo cadenas! Viva!

[Phoenicaea]

i convene also wishes of mine for president Guaido', to regain the country. Venezuela libre.

[Loben The 2nd]

Hmm, seems I was right.

[Liriena]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

[Shanhwa]

If the coup succeeds I’ll need several new pairs of pants.

[Senkaku]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?

[Liriena]

If the coup succeeds I’ll need several new pairs of pants.

Ewwww

Thanks. You just made me into a Maduro stan.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

Still doesn't look like Guaido has enough support in the military to win.

[Liriena]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

[Bahktar]

Still doesn't look like Guaido has enough support in the military to win.

I think it's too early to make any conclusions. I think this'll be drawn out for a few days or weeks.

[Bahktar]

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

"US-backed military coup" - I don't see any US soldiers, advisers or any of that sort - the USA may support Guaido, but so does the EU and many South American countries. I'm pretty sure this would have happened even if we had the Democratic Party in power, so I don't think it has anything to do with "neocons". The situation in Venezuela is the natural progression of having your country thrown to the dogs.

[Liriena]

You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

I'm sorry, but when the self-proclaimed "social democratic" liberator of Venezuela goes on to write an op-ed on Bloomberg where he pleads for China's intervention, lies about wanting a "peaceful transition" and basically whores his own country out, it's hard for me to then go "oh, yeah, let's overthrow the guy who's not doing that in a bloody military uprising".

[Liriena]

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

"US-backed military coup" - I don't see any US soldiers, advisers or any of that sort

Who is Elliott Abrams?

[Senkaku]

You'd prefer Maduro's status quo, then?

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup.

Seems like an exaggeration to characterize what's going on as a military coup at the moment- it's not even clear how much of the military Guaido has.

The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century.

I think it's disingenuous and silly to compare Guaido to people like Pinochet and the Contras.

And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

I mean, Venezuela doesn't really have a lot of fucking options at the moment, economically or politically. Maduro's run their economy so far into the ground that they're going to need to leverage oil and foreign investment to try and recover, and the man is so entrenched that I can see why Guaido would ask for other countries to help.

"US-backed military coup" - I don't see any US soldiers, advisers or any of that sort

Who is Elliott Abrams?

Liri, the Russians are the ones with boots on the ground, if you hadn't noticed.

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup. The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century. And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

I'm sorry, but when the self-proclaimed "social democratic" liberator of Venezuela goes on to write an op-ed on Bloomberg where he pleads for China's intervention, lies about wanting a "peaceful transition" and basically whores his own country out,

I'm sorry, what options does he have? He's asked the US, he's asked China (the fact that he's asking both frankly makes me more hopeful that he's committed to Venezuelan sovereignty and will try to play the superpowers off each other), Maduro still has the military and Russian support and is killing people and ruining the country- what options are left?

it's hard for me to then go "oh, yeah, let's overthrow the guy who's not doing that in a bloody military uprising".

I'm sorry, you think Maduro isn't whoring his own country out and groveling for foreign backers? Fucking lol, this is some peak left-twitter energy, Liri

additionally, as far as I can see this "military coup" you're screaming about doesn't really seem to be happening, beyond Guaido being in a video w some soldiers and some gunfire going down- Maduro is still rallying his people and National Guard armored cars are literally running people over lmao

[Aclion]

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup.

Seems like an exaggeration to characterize what's going on as a military coup at the moment- it's not even clear how much of the military Guaido has.

Yeah this isn't a coup, this is a constitutional crisis.

[Liriena]

I'd prefer it if this situation wasn't resolved by way of a US-backed military coup.

Seems like an exaggeration to characterize what's going on as a military coup at the moment- it's not even clear how much of the military Guaido has.

A coup attempt is still a coup attempt even if it's a minority of the military, which seems to be the case here.

The status quo sucks but it's gonna take a lot to convince me that a military coup backed by a neocon American government is going to turn out any better than it did for pretty much every South American country in the 20th century.

I think it's disingenuous and silly to compare Guaido to people like Pinochet and the Contras.

The fact that Guaido himself is, at least nominally, a social democrat doesn't mean that the aftermath of a successful coup would be guaranteed to be one in which the new regime is libertarian and respectful of institutions. Specially not when it seems that a lot of the stronger interests in the conflict are quite open about how violently desperate they are to see Maduro go by any means necessary.

And the fact that Guaido's policy promises all revolve around begging foreign powers to help him out in exchange for giving foreign investors a lot more power over Venezuelan oil sure doesn't lessen my skepticism.

I mean, Venezuela doesn't really have a lot of fucking options at the moment, economically or politically. Maduro's run their economy so far into the ground that they're going to need to leverage oil and foreign investment to try and recover, and the man is so entrenched that I can see why Guaido would ask for other countries to help.

Neoliberal economics are not going to solve the problems faced by the Venezuelan people right now. And those are the economics that Guaido's backers want.

Who is Elliott Abrams?

Liri, the Russians are the ones with boots on the ground, if you hadn't noticed.

Doesn't change the fact that the American government has a lot of people in it who have openly expressed a desire to directly intervene and, on top of that, has picked that particular guy to handle the crisis.

I'm sorry, but when the self-proclaimed "social democratic" liberator of Venezuela goes on to write an op-ed on Bloomberg where he pleads for China's intervention, lies about wanting a "peaceful transition" and basically whores his own country out,

I'm sorry, what options does he have? He's asked the US, he's asked China (the fact that he's asking both frankly makes me more hopeful that he's committed to Venezuelan sovereignty and will try to play the superpowers off each other), Maduro still has the military and Russian support and is killing people and ruining the country- what options are left?

I don't know what other options are left, but the choices made so far don't encourage me.

it's hard for me to then go "oh, yeah, let's overthrow the guy who's not doing that in a bloody military uprising".

I'm sorry, you think Maduro isn't whoring his own country out and groveling for foreign backers? Fucking lol, this is some peak left-twitter energy, Liri

additionally, as far as I can see this "military coup" you're screaming about doesn't really seem to be happening, beyond Guaido being in a video w some soldiers and some gunfire going down- Maduro is still rallying his people and National Guard armored cars are literally running people over lmao

If all that is true... then what's the real difference between Maduro and Guaido? If both are trying to either gain or maintain power through brute force, if both are selling their country's economy to the highest bidder for support... what's the difference?

[Liriena]

Seems like an exaggeration to characterize what's going on as a military coup at the moment- it's not even clear how much of the military Guaido has.

Yeah this isn't a coup, this is a constitutional crisis.

Is that why Guaido called for the military to join him and violently overthrow Maduro in what he called "Operación Libertad"?

Side-note: calling your South American coup attempt "operación" is a real 10/10 in "not even trying to be subtle about it".

[Senkaku]

Seems like an exaggeration to characterize what's going on as a military coup at the moment- it's not even clear how much of the military Guaido has.

A coup attempt is still a coup attempt even if it's a minority of the military, which seems to be the case here.

And, you know, also the thousands of people in the streets...?

I think it's disingenuous and silly to compare Guaido to people like Pinochet and the Contras.

The fact that Guaido himself is, at least nominally, a social democrat doesn't mean that the aftermath of a successful coup would be guaranteed to be one in which the new regime is libertarian and respectful of institutions.

No, you're right, it's not guaranteed to be a good outcome- but it seems to me that it's a lot more likely that Guaido taking power will lead to a good outcome than Maduro staying. The future is never a sure thing, Liri.

Specially not when it seems that a lot of the stronger interests in the conflict are quite open about how violently desperate they are to see Maduro go by any means necessary.

I mean, it seems to me that Maduro has kinda backed them into a corner by being so violently desperate to stay in power, and crashing the economy in the process.

I mean, Venezuela doesn't really have a lot of fucking options at the moment, economically or politically. Maduro's run their economy so far into the ground that they're going to need to leverage oil and foreign investment to try and recover, and the man is so entrenched that I can see why Guaido would ask for other countries to help.

Neoliberal economics are not going to solve the problems faced by the Venezuelan people right now. And those are the economics that Guaido's backers want.

Well, it sure as fuck doesn't seem like Chavez's ideas are doing a whole fucking lot, so I'd be willing to bet that proven economic ideas are more likely to help move the country towards recovery.

Liri, the Russians are the ones with boots on the ground, if you hadn't noticed.

Doesn't change the fact that the American government has a lot of people in it who have openly expressed a desire to directly intervene and, on top of that, has picked that particular guy to handle the crisis.

You won't find me disagreeing that the US has an optics problem here, but I'm not convinced that it goes deeper than an optics problem.

I'm sorry, what options does he have? He's asked the US, he's asked China (the fact that he's asking both frankly makes me more hopeful that he's committed to Venezuelan sovereignty and will try to play the superpowers off each other), Maduro still has the military and Russian support and is killing people and ruining the country- what options are left?

I don't know what other options are left, but the choices made so far don't encourage me.

Well, time to make a choice, bud.

I'm sorry, you think Maduro isn't whoring his own country out and groveling for foreign backers? Fucking lol, this is some peak left-twitter energy, Liri

additionally, as far as I can see this "military coup" you're screaming about doesn't really seem to be happening, beyond Guaido being in a video w some soldiers and some gunfire going down- Maduro is still rallying his people and National Guard armored cars are literally running people over lmao

If all that is true... then what's the real difference between Maduro and Guaido?

...are you fucking kidding me?

If both are trying to either gain or maintain power through brute force, if both are selling their country's economy to the highest bidder for support... what's the difference?

One is a dictator who's rigged elections, crashed the economy, illegally destroyed or subverted every political institution in the country to consolidate his own power, murdered and suppressed his own people, persecuted journalists and political opponents, enriched his cronies to the detriment of the people and overseen massive criminal activities, and completely abased himself to foreign powers like Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China. The other is a moderate opposition leader with strong popular support who's been trying to peacefully remove him through a constitutional process and encouraging other countries to stand up for the human rights of the Venezuelan people and against the dictator who's oppressing them.

And you can't tell the fucking difference? Give me a fucking break.

[Senkaku]

Yeah this isn't a coup, this is a constitutional crisis.

Is that why Guaido called for the military to join him and violently overthrow Maduro in what he called "Operación Libertad"?

Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?

Side-note: calling your South American coup attempt "operación" is a real 10/10 in "not even trying to be subtle about it".

...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?


I get that a lot of lefties are sensitive about perceived pro-American stuff in Latin America, but this is getting out of hand. There's no possible defense for the Maduro regime any more. If the US were supporting Maduro instead of Guaido, and the Russians or Chinese backing Guaido, what would you be saying? You'd be saying the US is supporting a brutal and fantastically corrupt dictatorship, and cheering on the opposition.

[Liriena]

A coup attempt is still a coup attempt even if it's a minority of the military, which seems to be the case here.

And, you know, also the thousands of people in the streets...?

So it's a civic-military coup attempt?

The fact that Guaido himself is, at least nominally, a social democrat doesn't mean that the aftermath of a successful coup would be guaranteed to be one in which the new regime is libertarian and respectful of institutions.

No, you're right, it's not guaranteed to be a good outcome- but it seems to me that it's a lot more likely that Guaido taking power will lead to a good outcome than Maduro staying.

We can agree to disagree on that. Or rather, I can agree that Venezuela might be better off in a post-Maduro situation... but not, in my opinion, the particular post-Maduro situation that would come from a successful coup.

Specially not when it seems that a lot of the stronger interests in the conflict are quite open about how violently desperate they are to see Maduro go by any means necessary.

I mean, it seems to me that Maduro has kinda backed them into a corner by being so violently desperate to stay in power, and crashing the economy in the process.

This is kinda getting chicken-or-egg.

Neoliberal economics are not going to solve the problems faced by the Venezuelan people right now. And those are the economics that Guaido's backers want.

Well, it sure as fuck doesn't seem like Chavez's ideas are doing a whole fucking lot, so I'd be willing to bet that proven economic ideas are more likely to help move the country towards recovery.

Neoliberal economics are not "proven" economic ideas. Not as far as South America is concerned, at least. The inevitable austerity of neoliberal economics might well finish the job that the crisis under Chavismo started and starve many more Venezuelans.

Doesn't change the fact that the American government has a lot of people in it who have openly expressed a desire to directly intervene and, on top of that, has picked that particular guy to handle the crisis.

You won't find me disagreeing that the US has an optics problem here, but I'm not convinced that it goes deeper than an optics problem.

It definitely goes deeper than an optics problem when the people with the power to decide on the foreign policy towards Venezuela are quite clear about what they want.

If all that is true... then what's the real difference between Maduro and Guaido?

...are you fucking kidding me?

If both are trying to either gain or maintain power through brute force, if both are selling their country's economy to the highest bidder for support... what's the difference?

One is a dictator who's rigged elections, crashed the economy, illegally destroyed or subverted every political institution in the country to consolidate his own power, murdered and suppressed his own people, persecuted journalists and political opponents, enriched his cronies to the detriment of the people and overseen massive criminal activities, and completely abased himself to foreign powers like Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China. The other is an opposition leader with strong popular support who's been trying to peacefully remove him through a constitutional process and encouraging other countries to stand up for the human rights of the Venezuelan people and against the dictator who's oppressing them.

And you can't tell the fucking difference? Give me a fucking break.

Not saying you're wrong (in fact, I know for a fact that a lot of those claims are correct), but that seems like a rather gish-gallopy and one-sided info-dump.

[Far Easter Republic]

What are the odds this becomes a full-blown civil war?

[Liriena]

Because he's constitutionally the legitimate commander-in-chief and Maduro has control of the military? You'll note he's also calling on the Venezuelan people...?

To join in a military operation to overthrow Maduro. Very responsible of him, using civilians as cannon fodder (same goes for the Chavistas, btw).

...are you kidding? How is Operation Condor in any way comparable to this?

Only insofar as any violent overthrow of a third world government that gets marketed with "operation" in its name kind of gives me a "imperialist" vibe, even if it's not the exact same thing.

It's just an optics thing.

If the US were supporting Maduro instead of Guaido, and the Russians or Chinese backing Guaido, what would you be saying? You'd be saying the US is supporting a brutal and fantastically corrupt dictatorship, and cheering on the opposition.

I'd feel the same way I feel right now: both sides of this conflict (insofar as their leaders go) are horrible and the Venezuelan people deserve better than either Maduro or Guaido.