La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[Loben]

and like unicorns shitting cookies for all the children to eat to their heart's content, not gonna happen.

Yeah. The US and China are logically going to compete for influence.

But the US is on the better side here. Not that we always support democracy (obviously sometime we do not) but also we do not view liberal democracy as inherently bad (unlike China).

things have always been this way since people figured out how to project power, this is our chance to more or less assert dominance in the north of south america and get the ball rolling on things down the line.

[The of Japan]

Yeah. The US and China are logically going to compete for influence.

But the US is on the better side here. Not that we always support democracy (obviously sometime we do not) but also we do not view liberal democracy as inherently bad (unlike China).

things have always been this way since people figured out how to project power, this is our chance to more or less assert dominance in the north of south america and get the ball rolling on things down the line.

Maduro will fall eventually.

[Thermodolia]

lol, I consider the Venezuelan regime and eternal revolution basically leftist imperialism by its main supporter Cuba since the days of Chávez.

imperialism is A-ok when the flag doing it is red.

The US flag has red

[LiberNovusAmericae]

imperialism is A-ok when the flag doing it is red.

The US flag has red

Completely or almost completely red he means.

[The of Japan]

The US flag has red

Completely or almost completely red he means.

we know, we are just having some fun.

[US-SSR]

Gee, guess I missed the part where Venezuelan workers controlled the means of production.

They didn't. But that didn't stop the government itself calling Venezuela, and the Bolivarian Revolution, socialist.

THAT is socialism. What Venezuela is is a kleptocracy, same as Nicaragua and many, many other Latin American regimes past and present. Maduro is about as much of a socialist as the Koch Brothers.

Obviously, but I was more getting at the notion that Venezuela isn't socialist because it is a failure, something which self professed socialists often say.

I'm a socialist, Venezuela is not and never was socialist and it is a failure. Calling Venezuela socialist is as accurate as calling a fish a bicycle.

Be that as it may, the right to recognize another government or not is an essential element of sovereignty. It was more than a bit silly for the US to recognize the Chinese Nationalist government in Taipei as sovereign over all of China, but from the end of the Revolution to Nixon that is how things were. And as announced today, the Maduro regime can neither pull its assets from the US (they're frozen) nor collect payments due to PDVSA or its refinery (those go into blocked accounts), exactly because the US recognizes Guaido as interim President of Venezuela and not Maduro.

The US Recognition of the Nationalists over the Communists led to the Korean War, which ended in a draw. A Superpower, like the US, can get away with dumb decisions, but it hurts American authority in the long run. You have a right to recognize or not recognize a country, or a leader, but if you continue to act on a whim, it will come to bite you in the ass, as well as your sovereignty, or at the very least your influence in certain regions. How's American influence in East Asia doing?

American is haemorrhaging influence around the world, but that has more to do with this corrupt, venal, callous, feckless administration than any other factor.

Furthermore, not a whole lot of countries followed America's lead. Let's say that, in spite of his bluster, Maduro holds elections, said elections are oversee by the EU, and Maduro wins. What's the US going to do? How will that affect pro US regimes in Latin America in the next election cycle?

An excellent question that goes to my concern over what our Plan B might be. So far there's little enough evidence of a Plan A, other than hoping the security forces turn against Maduro, an outcome that from where I sit shows little evidence of coming to pass any time soon. The most promising aspect of this whole thing so far is that while "not a whole lot" of countires back Guaido those that do include most of Venezuela's neighbors, Canada and (in a few more days) the leading states of Europe, including Spain. As for Mexico and Uruguay, let them step up if they have anything constructive to offer; as for Russia, China and Cuba, ditto. No one much cares what Madagascar, Singapore or Tuvalu think about who should be running Venezuela.

[Torrocca]

The US flag has red

Completely or almost completely red he means.

Red is the most prevalent color on the standard US flag at 41.5% tho.

[Kubra]

Meanwhile, it's just a lot easier to look at concrete policy and problems of the Venezuelan administration and say simply the administration itself was a failure, rather than trying to make this whole thing about ideology (right or left).

I'm not denying that it's the government's fault for the problems here, especially considering Venezuela had a chance to stop the crisis from getting worse and it flatly rejected proposals to change Chavez-era policies.

Maybe this Guiado fellow has a good head on his shoulders, and it would be a shame for someone to dismiss him on the grounds of being too or insufficiently socialist.

Juan Guaidó is a member of the Popular Will party lead by Leopoldo López, who is imprisoned. The party is itself a centrist and social democrat but interestingly, is a member of Socialist International. Considering the party was the first one to get LGBT members elected to the Venezuelan Congress, it's not the bastion of fascism some claim to be.

Yes, and that is an easy enough thing to state simply. It doesn't take a particular ideological outlook to say "they done fucked up".
The official franchise of the SI, at that. You can easily be too left for that lot, but you can also be too right wing for them.

I'm not denying that it's the government's fault for the problems here, especially considering Venezuela had a chance to stop the crisis from getting worse and it flatly rejected proposals to change Chavez-era policies.



Juan Guaidó is a member of the Popular Will party lead by Leopoldo López, who is imprisoned. The party is itself a centrist and social democrat but interestingly, is a member of Socialist International. Considering the party was the first one to get LGBT members elected to the Venezuelan Congress, it's not the bastion of fascism some claim to be.

lol, Kubra, not the government, not the administration, the revolution, as in the permanent eternal revolution, as Maduro once said, when will the opposition learn the revolution is here to stay, just like the permanent eternal revolution of Cuba, that is whom and what we are dealing with here.

This is, of course, a good example of what I mean by uncritical opposition. It's a pure opposition, a spiritual sort of such, rather than consideration of alternatives.

[Costa Fierro]

The official franchise of the SI, at that. You can easily be too left for that lot, but you can also be too right wing for them.

What I was getting at was that Popular Will has often been called fascists and right wingers, when in reality it is far from it, and probably the best opposition party to lead Venezuela forwards, especially if they can wrangle in some of the PSUV dissidents.

[Shofercia]

The US Recognition of the Nationalists over the Communists led to the Korean War, which ended in a draw. A Superpower, like the US, can get away with dumb decisions, but it hurts American authority in the long run. You have a right to recognize or not recognize a country, or a leader, but if you continue to act on a whim, it will come to bite you in the ass, as well as your sovereignty, or at the very least your influence in certain regions. How's American influence in East Asia doing?

American is haemorrhaging influence around the world, but that has more to do with this corrupt, venal, callous, feckless administration than any other factor.

Furthermore, not a whole lot of countries followed America's lead. Let's say that, in spite of his bluster, Maduro holds elections, said elections are oversee by the EU, and Maduro wins. What's the US going to do? How will that affect pro US regimes in Latin America in the next election cycle?

An excellent question that goes to my concern over what our Plan B might be. So far there's little enough evidence of a Plan A, other than hoping the security forces turn against Maduro, an outcome that from where I sit shows little evidence of coming to pass any time soon. The most promising aspect of this whole thing so far is that while "not a whole lot" of countires back Guaido those that do include most of Venezuela's neighbors, Canada and (in a few more days) the leading states of Europe, including Spain. As for Mexico and Uruguay, let them step up if they have anything constructive to offer; as for Russia, China and Cuba, ditto. No one much cares what Madagascar, Singapore or Tuvalu think about who should be running Venezuela.

A Superpower is going to lose influence over time, that's just the natural course. The smart thing to do is to set up a system of international laws that are preferential to the Superpower, but that others also benefit from, and adhere to said system. As far as Presidential Administrations and Foreign Policy, Trump's is not the worst, but that's for another thread.

Regarding the support, tossing aside the regional claimants on both sides, we're left with Australia, Israel, Canada, as well as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Peru. All of the countries listed, excepting perhaps US and Brazil, aren't going to do much without OAS/UN approval, so that'll take time. On the other hand, Maduro is backed by Russia, China, South Africa, Bolivia, Cuba, among others. If Russia can provide a counter to the US, China can counter the rest. Thus the lobbying race is for the EU, which wants elections. And even if the EU recognizes Guaido, it's still far from over, since the military seems to be loyal to Maduro. To make matters more interesting, Venezuela is not an easy country to invade, and an invasion might bring the Venezuelans closer together. Right now we can wait to see what happens.

If I was in Maduro's place, I'd call for an election by the end of 2019, on condition that all assets that were frozen be moved to neutral countries, like Mexico and Uruguay, work with Russia & China to fix economic issues, win the election, and then invite Cuban Doctors to Venezuela, while honoring the hard work that they do. But that's just me.

[Costa Fierro]

And even if the EU recognizes Guaido, it's still far from over, since the military seems to be loyal to Maduro. To make matters more interesting, Venezuela is not an easy country to invade, and an invasion might bring the Venezuelans closer together.

Not necessarily. While the Venezuelan Army alone numbers half a million personnel, the vast majority of the troops in the military are conscripts, which are notoriously unreliable soldiers in most instances (unless you're mid-to-late war Soviet Union). Couple with the possibility of the lower ranks not seeing the benefits that the higher officers do (including reaping the benefits of food trafficking) and many of the soldiers refusing to carry out orders and an invasion of Venezuela might not be so difficult as imagined.

As for Venezuelans banding together, I doubt that outside of the most ardent supporters of Maduro, most Venezuelans would be against an armed invasion of their country. With widespread and serious food shortages (worse than in the Warsaw Pact prior to the fall of communism), a complete collapse of most industries, a complete collapse of the public health center, and one of the highest intentional homicide rates on the planet, I would think that whoever does invade, if there isn't a military rebellion (not unheard of in Venezuelan history, there was an award winning image of a priest comforting a dying soldier during a rebellion in the 1960's) that overthrows Maduro, they would be welcomed with open arms.

[Phoenicaea]

^ ..from what we know, the main knife the regime has got it is not the military balance (in case of civil war, the military capability of the regime is negligible, it is insignificant).

the knife of the regime, as always, is the the menace of doing mess and bloodshed, with people fleeng away, spreading the hell in bordening countries. politics matters, not battle.

[The Archregimancy]

If I was in Maduro's place, I'd call for an election by the end of 2019, on condition that all assets that were frozen be moved to neutral countries, like Mexico and Uruguay, work with Russia & China to fix economic issues, win the election, and then invite Cuban Doctors to Venezuela, while honoring the hard work that they do. But that's just me.

1) You're assuming he'd win a free and fair election.

2) Venezuela has already tried inviting in Cuba's doctors. Up until 2014-16, Mission Barrio Adentro - the Chavista medical welfare programme that was, initially, the most successful of the Bolivarian missions (and the only one anti-Chavistas would praise, however grudgingly, when I was working in Venezuela) - was overwhelmingly staffed by Cuban doctors. The mission doctors consisted of 15,356 Cubans and 1,234 Venezuelans. My experience here is admittedly highly specific, but at the start of this decade you could barely move at Venezuelan heritage sites without running into Cubans.

However, by 2014 Venezuela was unable to keep up payments to Cuba, whether in cash or in kind via oil supplies. By the end of 2014, 80% of the missions were abandoned. By the end of 2016 almost all of the remaining Cubans had been recalled home because Venezuela couldn't keep up with the payments; even the Cubans weren't going to work for nothing. So the basic problem here is that, whatever the official rhetoric over socialist solidarity, Cuba no longer has any interest in medically helping out what was once their closest ally in the hemisphere because they know they can't pay.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

The EU parliament have decided to recognise Guaido. While also ignoring the US on Iran. Nice.

[Federal Freepublic of Freedom]

Hopefully Maduro's reign will end soon without much bloodshed (let's face it, a level of bloodshed is a given. Dictators seldom just leave office when told to) or necessity for international intervention.

Maduro isn't a dictator, and never has been. He's won his elections fairly and not censored anything or attacked the opposition as much as he probably should.

Last elections weren't recognized by most respected organizations, the most important being the Organization of American States.
A dictator can rise to power through a democracy. That happened in Nazi Germany with Hitler, Italy with Mussolini, Democratic People's Republic of Korea with Kim Il Sung. Winning an election "fairly" doesn't mean you can't become a dictator.

[TURTLESHROOM II]

There are three ways to take a Marxist nation out: topple it once it commits theft, bribe the people with free crap and/or recognizing their human rights until they start to accept a capitalist structure, or let it run its course.

No country should be allowed to go Marxist due to the irresponsibility of her people. Period. When the electorate becomes compromised by the siren song of the red hydra, the issue becomes too important for the voters to decide for themselves. I believe this wholeheartedly and without irony.

This said, I abhor the idea of sending soldiers to invade or nation-build YET ANOTHER country. America used to use dirtier tools than outright invasion, and I wish we would have used those on Iraq or whatever else instead of sheddding the blood of thousands of Americans. This is why I completely oppose boots-on-the-ground military action against Venezuela. The Iraq War was a mistake. We should never repeat that.

Instead, Venezuela should have been toppled in an orchestrated coup d'etat the day Hugo Chavez stole American oil infrastructure and assets. We should have been trying to assassinate Hugo Chavez to the same degree we went after Fidel Castro. The Venezuelan people committed suicide the day Hugo Chavez won on the premise of seizing OUR Means of Production, and because of that theft of American property, their voices ceased to be legitimate to American ears.

There are plenty of dirty-deeds-done-dirt-cheap mercenaries to clean out Marxism, and we have a vast amount of tools and money to do so. Heck, I'm sure the Chiquita Fruit Company could use a new base of operations if the cost was too high for the state.

Venezuela is what happens to a genuinely Marxist country if Marxism is allowed to run its course. In addition to America's fundamental duty to protect its investors and their assets anywhere they go, America should also has a duty to destroy any Marxist government in its sphere of influence (or out of it) by any indirect means necessary. It is better for a few thousand thieves to die than millions and millions of people to starve to death.

Donald Trump did the right thing and he should follow it up by orchestrating the assassination of Maduro.

[Novus America]

Maduro isn't a dictator, and never has been. He's won his elections fairly and not censored anything or attacked the opposition as much as he probably should.

Last elections weren't recognized by most respected organizations, the most important being the Organization of American States.
A dictator can rise to power through a democracy. That happened in Nazi Germany with Hitler, Italy with Mussolini, Democratic People's Republic of Korea with Kim Il Sung. Winning an election "fairly" doesn't mean you can't become a dictator.

In all fairness Maduro is not a dictator per se in that he is not the one actually running things.
He is not the sharpest tool in the Chavista shed.
He is mostly a figure head for his drug dealing Claire Underwoodesque wife, and a group of other drug dealing criminals.

He is just the figurehead for a criminal cartel.

That being said he is not remotely a democratic leader either.

[TURTLESHROOM II]

Maduro isn't a dictator, and never has been. He's won his elections fairly and not censored anything or attacked the opposition as much as he probably should.

Maduro also declared the Venezuelan Parliament to be ceremonial and set up a puppet Constituent Assembly that is unanimously stuffed with Chavistas. It has absolute power over the Constitution and all aspects of Venezuelan society.



That is the legislature of a dictatorship.

[TURTLESHROOM II]

In all fairness Maduro is not a dictator in that he is not the one actually running things.
He is not the sharpest tool in the Chavista shed.
He is mostly a figure head for his drug dealing Claire Underwoodesque wife, and a group of other drug dealing criminals.
He is just the figurehead for a criminal cartel.

Venezuela became a criminal cartel the moment Hugo Chavez seized American and domestic means of production and should have been dealt with accordingly from day one.

[Thermodolia]

There are three ways to take a Marxist nation out: topple it once it commits theft, bribe the people with free crap and/or recognizing their human rights until they start to accept a capitalist structure, or let it run its course.

No country should be allowed to go Marxist due to the irresponsibility of her people. Period. When the electorate becomes compromised by the siren song of the red hydra, the issue becomes too important for the voters to decide for themselves. I believe this wholeheartedly and without irony.

This said, I abhor the idea of sending soldiers to invade or nation-build YET ANOTHER country. America used to use dirtier tools than outright invasion, and I wish we would have used those on Iraq or whatever else instead of sheddding the blood of thousands of Americans. This is why I completely oppose boots-on-the-ground military action against Venezuela. The Iraq War was a mistake. We should never repeat that.

Instead, Venezuela should have been toppled in an orchestrated coup d'etat the day Hugo Chavez stole American oil infrastructure and assets. We should have been trying to assassinate Hugo Chavez to the same degree we went after Fidel Castro. The Venezuelan people committed suicide the day Hugo Chavez won on the premise of seizing OUR Means of Production, and because of that theft of American property, their voices ceased to be legitimate to American ears.

There are plenty of dirty-deeds-done-dirt-cheap mercenaries to clean out Marxism, and we have a vast amount of tools and money to do so. Heck, I'm sure the Chiquita Fruit Company could use a new base of operations if the cost was too high for the state.

Venezuela is what happens to a genuinely Marxist country if Marxism is allowed to run its course. In addition to America's fundamental duty to protect its investors and their assets anywhere they go, America should also has a duty to destroy any Marxist government in its sphere of influence (or out of it) by any indirect means necessary. It is better for a few thousand thieves to die than millions and millions of people to starve to death.

Donald Trump did the right thing and he should follow it up by orchestrating the assassination of Maduro.

Venezuela isn’t even communist let alone Marxist

[Northern Davincia]

There are three ways to take a Marxist nation out: topple it once it commits theft, bribe the people with free crap and/or recognizing their human rights until they start to accept a capitalist structure, or let it run its course.

No country should be allowed to go Marxist due to the irresponsibility of her people. Period. When the electorate becomes compromised by the siren song of the red hydra, the issue becomes too important for the voters to decide for themselves. I believe this wholeheartedly and without irony.

This said, I abhor the idea of sending soldiers to invade or nation-build YET ANOTHER country. America used to use dirtier tools than outright invasion, and I wish we would have used those on Iraq or whatever else instead of sheddding the blood of thousands of Americans. This is why I completely oppose boots-on-the-ground military action against Venezuela. The Iraq War was a mistake. We should never repeat that.

Instead, Venezuela should have been toppled in an orchestrated coup d'etat the day Hugo Chavez stole American oil infrastructure and assets. We should have been trying to assassinate Hugo Chavez to the same degree we went after Fidel Castro. The Venezuelan people committed suicide the day Hugo Chavez won on the premise of seizing OUR Means of Production, and because of that theft of American property, their voices ceased to be legitimate to American ears.

There are plenty of dirty-deeds-done-dirt-cheap mercenaries to clean out Marxism, and we have a vast amount of tools and money to do so. Heck, I'm sure the Chiquita Fruit Company could use a new base of operations if the cost was too high for the state.

Venezuela is what happens to a genuinely Marxist country if Marxism is allowed to run its course. In addition to America's fundamental duty to protect its investors and their assets anywhere they go, America should also has a duty to destroy any Marxist government in its sphere of influence (or out of it) by any indirect means necessary. It is better for a few thousand thieves to die than millions and millions of people to starve to death.

Donald Trump did the right thing and he should follow it up by orchestrating the assassination of Maduro.

Venezuela isn’t even communist let alone Marxist

They get credit for trying.

[Torrocca]

Venezuela isn’t even communist let alone Marxist

They get credit for trying.

Except it's pretty obvious to anybody with even the faintest modicum of understanding of Marxism and what the Bolivarians did once they got in power that they didn't even try to become Communist; ther country's practically been a Bolivarian playground from day one.

[West Leas Oros 2]

They didn't. But that didn't stop the government itself calling Venezuela, and the Bolivarian Revolution, socialist.



Obviously, but I was more getting at the notion that Venezuela isn't socialist because it is a failure, something which self professed socialists often say.

I'm a socialist, Venezuela is not and never was socialist and it is a failure. Calling Venezuela socialist is as accurate as calling a fish a bicycle.

You’re a socialist?

[Arcturus Novus]

[...]
Donald Trump did the right thing and he should follow it up by orchestrating the assassination of Maduro.

Yikes

[West Leas Oros 2]

[...]
Donald Trump did the right thing and he should follow it up by orchestrating the assassination of Maduro.

Yikes

I can’t believe it’s not a coup!^tm