La Crisis Venezolana: The Crisis in Venezuela

[West Leas Oros 2]

Honestly, I'm hoping Guaido wins just so we can get all the neo-cons to come up with a better strawman.

[Novus America]

Tensions escalated in Venezuela Tuesday after the country's U.S.-backed opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaidó called for the military to topple the leftist government of Nicolás Maduro.

Early in the morning, Guaidó -- standing alongside a group of soldiers and previously jailed fellow opposition leader Leopoldo López -- called on the Venezuelan armed forces to stage an uprising and carry out what he dubbed "Operación Libertad," or operation freedom.

Top U.S. officials, including Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, were quick to vouch their support for Guaidó's bid to oust Maduro.

It seems the end is here. Venezuela is now in a civil war. Kind of.

The US should not intervene in Venezuela. It would cause an Afgahnistan 2.0. Hands off Venezuela!

Tell it to the Russians and Cubans.

[Novus America]

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Except not. Besides CIA coup is not even a thing.
The CIA does not have a magical coup button at Langley.

They can provide some aid and advice to coup plotters but that is about it.
They cannot make a coup, the local military elite have to do that.

They can only help, not be the primary cause.

All “CIA coups” were actually primarily done by local military.
Supported, but not solely (or even mostly) caused by the CIA.

[Munkchester]

Operation Libertad more like Operation Libtard lmao

just a joke just a joke just pointing out the similarity between the two please don't ban me for 2 weeks

[US-SSR]

When I heard the news this morning I thought of three possible outcomes. First the least likely: the security forces had somehow turned and Maduro would soon be getting on a plane to somewhere else.

Next the possible but still rather unlikely: this could be the start of a prolonged period of violent raids and retributions between disaffected elements of the security forces and Maduro regime loyalists. More innocents killed, more chaos leading to disease and famine, bad show all round.

Finally the most likely: the "coup" will be contained and put down, its leaders arrested and either tried and jailed or exiled, innocents killed but not as many as above, the country's economy still flailing but muddling through again with less disease and famine than above but more than anyone should want.

What I can't for the life of me figure out is just what anyone involved is thinking. Did the Guaido faction think standing around in the streets inhaling tear gas and being sniped at would somehow bring down the Maduro regime or cause the security forces to come around? Do John Bolton or Marco Rubio think the military will crumble to dust because of harsh language or Tweets? If they're waiting for the US to intervene on their behalf --
not entirely unreasonable given the rhetoric Bolton, Abrams, Rubio and company have been tossing around --
they are about to have one hell of a long wait. Suppose they take the airbase? So what? They can't fly a crop duster in or out of there without it being shot down.

Please, let's rule out the obvious nonstarters. There are no US troops headed for the region; you just can't move task forces around in the Caribbean with no one noticing. Colombian and/or Brazilian intervention, ditto; neither government is stable enough to risk being accused of fighting the Yanquis' battles for them. Sanctions might be biting the Maduro side but those will take months if not years to show any effects, not days or weeks. iirc some US sanctions are still delayed until May in order to give US companies time to adjust.

I'm not seeing or hearing about Maduro tanks running wild in the streets. I've seen a few groups of armored cars sitting around while being pelted with rocks and/or Molotovs. If the "revolt" had any momentum it's long since petered out, and unless it finds some more soon I look for police lines and arrests, including of its leadership -- against whom the regime now has excellent cause.

The US's troubles go much, much deeper than "optics" here. Nothing less than its prestige and influence in its own backyard has been put on the line, imo by the rash, unwarranted, thoughless actions of this corrupt, venal, callous, feckless administration. Once the Guaido faction crumbles, what then? What's Plan B? Was there ever one? Fight Maduro to the last Venezuelan baby? We can write off a negotiated option now that this half-baked "coup" is out of the bag.

So far it looks like we can chalk up another win for Putin and Cuba. Venezuela, and its suffering populace, not so much.

[Major-Tom]

This whole scenario, frankly, sucks. Maduro is a cartoonishly incompetent, authoritarian, and ruthless leader who I would consider a dictator for all intents and purposes. He should go.

But I'm worried that if, at this point when, Guaido is launched into power, the speed of progress will be languid at best. Considering that this is a coup d'etat, the public backs Guaido by a majority in polls, sure, but it's still a coup d'etat. The political fractures will not cease if Guaido is catapulted into power, and even when he is leader, I don't see a smooth, easy, non-violent transition into a functioning Latin-American democracy a la Uruguay/Chile.

I don't know what I would propose as an alternative here, I'm just suggesting that things may still go down significantly before they go up. Furthermore, I really don't want the US to get involved. Some humanitarian aid and amnesty for prisoners of the Maduro regime is fine, that should stay in place, but with hawks like Bolton eyeing this mess like a 12 year old who saw his first tit is worrisome.

[US-SSR]

This whole scenario, frankly, sucks. Maduro is a cartoonishly incompetent, authoritarian, and ruthless leader who I would consider a dictator for all intents and purposes. He should go.

But I'm worried that if, at this point when, Guaido is launched into power, the speed of progress will be languid at best. Considering that this is a coup d'etat, the public backs Guaido by a majority in polls, sure, but it's still a coup d'etat. The political fractures will not cease if Guaido is catapulted into power, and even when he is leader, I don't see a smooth, easy, non-violent transition into a functioning Latin-American democracy a la Uruguay/Chile.

I don't know what I would propose as an alternative here, I'm just suggesting that things may still go down significantly before they go up. Furthermore, I really don't want the US to get involved. Some humanitarian aid and amnesty for prisoners of the Maduro regime is fine, that should stay in place, but with hawks like Bolton eyeing this mess like a 12 year old who saw his first tit is worrisome.

I'm not positive he's seen a tit yet.

[Major-Tom]

This whole scenario, frankly, sucks. Maduro is a cartoonishly incompetent, authoritarian, and ruthless leader who I would consider a dictator for all intents and purposes. He should go.

But I'm worried that if, at this point when, Guaido is launched into power, the speed of progress will be languid at best. Considering that this is a coup d'etat, the public backs Guaido by a majority in polls, sure, but it's still a coup d'etat. The political fractures will not cease if Guaido is catapulted into power, and even when he is leader, I don't see a smooth, easy, non-violent transition into a functioning Latin-American democracy a la Uruguay/Chile.

I don't know what I would propose as an alternative here, I'm just suggesting that things may still go down significantly before they go up. Furthermore, I really don't want the US to get involved. Some humanitarian aid and amnesty for prisoners of the Maduro regime is fine, that should stay in place, but with hawks like Bolton eyeing this mess like a 12 year old who saw his first tit is worrisome.

I'm not positive he's seen a tit yet.

Sure he has, he's met the President.

[Costa Fierro]

Venezuela was already a democracy before Maduro. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be considered such after the next elections.

[Major-Tom]

Venezuela was already a democracy before Maduro. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be considered such after the next elections.

I'm worried about sectarian violence persisting after any future elections, thus severely weakening the fabric of what would already be a fragile democracy.

I want Maduro out, but seeing this all boil down to what is morphing into a fairly violent coup gives me reason to be less than optimistic.

[Costa Fierro]

Venezuela was already a democracy before Maduro. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be considered such after the next elections.

I'm worried about sectarian violence persisting after any future elections, thus severely weakening the fabric of what would already be a fragile democracy.

I want Maduro out, but seeing this all boil down to what is morphing into a fairly violent coup gives me reason to be less than optimistic.

What sectarian violence? The PSUV has supporters and they'll likely dump Maduro like a hot brick if they ever want to be elected again.

[Proctopeo]

Venezuela was already a democracy before Maduro. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be considered such after the next elections.

It was a democracy. Under Maduro it ceased to be one, though Chavez's rule signed its death sentence.
Guaido would be a return to proper democratic rule instead of a cheap dictatorship.

[Liriena]

Looks like some sort of firefight went down between pro-Guaido police and colectivos at the Transport Ministry? Am I way behind the curve/are there some Twitter or live feeds w better info?

Was this the thing where pro-Guaido police fired their guns into the air?

[Liriena]

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Not that long, if you ask Chavistas.

[Senkaku]

Looks like some sort of firefight went down between pro-Guaido police and colectivos at the Transport Ministry? Am I way behind the curve/are there some Twitter or live feeds w better info?

Was this the thing where pro-Guaido police fired their guns into the air?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1123370306482188288
https://twitter.com/i/status/1123293217624031233
Couple of the tweets with videos of it, there were a bunch more with photos and videos with the same guys and building in them so it seemed decently credible.

But no, I don't think so, it looks like they're seriously exchanging fire here, not shooting in the air (there were apparently reports of injuries). There was also stuff earlier on the Altamira Bridge near La Carlota where some colectivos were shooting at protesters though, I believe.

[Kowani]

Venezuela was already a democracy before Maduro. I don't see any reason why it wouldn't be considered such after the next elections.

To quote Thomas Nast: “In counting there is strength.”

[Khataiy]

This whole scenario, frankly, sucks. Maduro is a cartoonishly incompetent, authoritarian, and ruthless leader who I would consider a dictator for all intents and purposes. He should go.

But I'm worried that if, at this point when, Guaido is launched into power, the speed of progress will be languid at best. Considering that this is a coup d'etat, the public backs Guaido by a majority in polls, sure, but it's still a coup d'etat. The political fractures will not cease if Guaido is catapulted into power, and even when he is leader, I don't see a smooth, easy, non-violent transition into a functioning Latin-American democracy a la Uruguay/Chile.

I don't know what I would propose as an alternative here, I'm just suggesting that things may still go down significantly before they go up. Furthermore, I really don't want the US to get involved. Some humanitarian aid and amnesty for prisoners of the Maduro regime is fine, that should stay in place, but with hawks like Bolton eyeing this mess like a 12 year old who saw his first tit is worrisome.

This was a cringey read

[The Chuck]

With all the political groups involved, this mess is quickly getting bigger and bigger. I hope the US doesn't get involved due to China/Russia/etc. but I also wish that China/Russia/etc. would back off. I hope it doesn't come to it but I do foresee the US 4th Fleet steaming across the Caribbean in the coming days to get the point across to Maduro. Sometimes diplomacy comes at the business end of a Raytheon Tomahawk cruise missile. Donald Trump has already proven with Shayrat and Damascus Syria that he's willing to use the US navy to drive points home so I wouldn't be surprised if he uses the US Navy as a show of force against Maduro.

Best wishes to my Venezuelan friends. Stay safe and look towards the dawn.

[Hakons]

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Defending a murderous dictatorship to own the cons

[Anarchitaria]

Maduro is shit, US-backed coups are even shittier.

[US-SSR]

With all the political groups involved, this mess is quickly getting bigger and bigger. I hope the US doesn't get involved due to China/Russia/etc. but I also wish that China/Russia/etc. would back off. I hope it doesn't come to it but I do foresee the US 4th Fleet steaming across the Caribbean in the coming days to get the point across to Maduro. Sometimes diplomacy comes at the business end of a Raytheon Tomahawk cruise missile. Donald Trump has already proven with Shayrat and Damascus Syria that he's willing to use the US navy to drive points home so I wouldn't be surprised if he uses the US Navy as a show of force against Maduro.

Best wishes to my Venezuelan friends. Stay safe and look towards the dawn.

Please, let's rule out the obvious nonstarters. There are no US troops headed for the region; you just can't move task forces around in the Caribbean with no one noticing.

When exactly are they going to do that, in between painting schools, building orphanages, interdicting drug shipments, drilling antisub ops and terrorist ship attacks on the Canal and the other nonwar stuff they list on their page? btw including hurricane relief in Venezuela in 1999. Come off it. No US, EU, Lima Group or any other warship is going to go lobbing missiles into Caracas at the risk of hitting a Russian soldier, not to mention, you know, a civilian or a dog. Other than cementing Venezuelan and third country support for Maduro, what would that even accomplish? Just come off it. You and Bolton can talk that shit together over a beer at the end of the bar.

[Puertollano]

This finally might be the opportunity to put Guaido in prison where he belongs.

There's nothing more illegal than treason.

[Phoenicaea]

All these people cheering for a military coup over here and I'm like...

(Image)

it is true, perhaps i m not free from myself. for philosophy, there is a lone good, knowledge, and a lone cause of dirt, ignorance, what matters is not being imbecile.

it is all about not being imbecile, the dialogue between myself comes after, you have not to be minus habens before.

you see, it is these children, capricious and well fed, praising torture and famine regime, they are a stain.

when i was their age, i was staying silent as i was aimed at thought rather thar at roumor, instead they let their nature posed to ignorance to flood.

@Us-ssr, what are you, i m ashtonished as i see the deepness of your ignorance.

i can t even distinguish if you are either sincerely inferior thugs i was saying about, or if you are paid writers instead, ten cents per page.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Any updates on what's happening? I'm kinda having a hard time keeping up with the news cuz nobody is talking about it.

[Phoenicaea]

@Washington, news are obscured because of riot in act, i suppose we will know when things end, unless some venezuelan living there says to us.

what i ve read, that is official news, is Guaio' and Lopez have showed theirselves in Altamira plaza, the famous crossing where the presidency has been claimed, and had a brief speech.

there, president said 'this is a march without return' (a walking without coming back), allegedly standing on a jeep. he has called for a day of protest the 1st of May.

other news said, supposedly, things may be at a stake, waiting to know where army or generals side. otherwise, tanks are posed to pass throught the people, they wait order.