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2019 US Miscellaneous Election Thread

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 5:31 pm

Duhon wrote:Apparently Donald Trump Jr. is contemplating a run for mayor of New York City, if this is to be believed.

Not that I believe that shit for a moment, but if he were to actually run, how badly will he lose?


Very, very badly, as his father would say.
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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Tue May 21, 2019 5:33 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Duhon wrote:Apparently Donald Trump Jr. is contemplating a run for mayor of New York City, if this is to be believed.

Not that I believe that shit for a moment, but if he were to actually run, how badly will he lose?


Very, very badly, as his father would say.


5% of the vote? 1%? A hundred votes, total?

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 5:38 pm

Duhon wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Very, very badly, as his father would say.


5% of the vote? 1%? A hundred votes, total?


Nah, maybe 20-25%. Staten Island exists, lest we forget.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 6:58 pm

First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue May 21, 2019 7:20 pm

Shrillland wrote:First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.

All expected. Very red turf that has not voted Democrat in many years.
Jim Kenney won his primary and is almost certain to crush attorney Billy Ciancaglini in November

Philadelphia also held primaries for city council. For the at large seats they use a system called limited voting but im not sure i understand it.

There will be five winners from the Democratic and Republican primaries. In November there will be seven winners. How does this system work? Im confused
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue May 21, 2019 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 7:22 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.

All expected. Very red turf that has not voted Democrat in many years.
Jim Kenney won his primary and is almost certain to crush attorney Billy Ciancaglini in November

Philadelphia also held primaries for city council. For the at large seats they use a system called limited voting but im not sure i understand it.

There will be five winners from the Democratic and Republican primaries. In November there will be seven winners. How does this system work? Im confused


Oh, it's just like voting for a school board here. The Democrats and Republicans will each choose five candidates to go to November, and the top seven vote-getters among them win the seats.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue May 21, 2019 7:24 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:All expected. Very red turf that has not voted Democrat in many years.
Jim Kenney won his primary and is almost certain to crush attorney Billy Ciancaglini in November

Philadelphia also held primaries for city council. For the at large seats they use a system called limited voting but im not sure i understand it.

There will be five winners from the Democratic and Republican primaries. In November there will be seven winners. How does this system work? Im confused


Oh, it's just like voting for a school board here. The Democrats and Republicans will each choose five candidates to go to November, and the top seven vote-getters among them win the seats.


but the Republicans are guaranteed of winning at least two seats or something like that? Isnt that the point of it that is guarantees the opposition party seats?

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 7:26 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Oh, it's just like voting for a school board here. The Democrats and Republicans will each choose five candidates to go to November, and the top seven vote-getters among them win the seats.


but the Republicans are guaranteed of winning at least two seats or something like that? Isnt that the point of it that is guarantees the opposition party seats?


Well, since it's an at-large election, they're trying to make it as representative of the populace as possible. Philly may be deep blue, but there are still some Republicans there.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue May 21, 2019 7:31 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
but the Republicans are guaranteed of winning at least two seats or something like that? Isnt that the point of it that is guarantees the opposition party seats?


Well, since it's an at-large election, they're trying to make it as representative of the populace as possible. Philly may be deep blue, but there are still some Republicans there.


Per the city charter no party can hold more than five at large seats on the city council. If I understand it correctly the five Democrats who emerge from the primary will almost certainly win and two Republicans will win.

So in theory one can cast a ballot for all five democrats and not vote for any republicans? Am I understanding it correctly?

also in a big upset incumbent Philadelphia Sheriff Jewell Williams lost his bid for a third term to former police officer Rochelle Bilal
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue May 21, 2019 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 7:32 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Well, since it's an at-large election, they're trying to make it as representative of the populace as possible. Philly may be deep blue, but there are still some Republicans there.


Per the city charter no party can hold more than five at large seats on the city council. If I understand it correctly the five Democrats who emerge from the primary will almost certainly win and two Republicans will win.

So in theory one can cast a ballot for all five democrats and not vote for any republicans? Am I understanding it correctly?

also in a big upset incumbent Philadelphia Sheriff Jewell Williams lost his bid for a third term to former police officer Rochelle Bilal


In theory, yes. The ballot probably says vote for seven on it, but you can vote for any number up to that and it'll still be counted.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue May 21, 2019 7:40 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Per the city charter no party can hold more than five at large seats on the city council. If I understand it correctly the five Democrats who emerge from the primary will almost certainly win and two Republicans will win.

So in theory one can cast a ballot for all five democrats and not vote for any republicans? Am I understanding it correctly?

also in a big upset incumbent Philadelphia Sheriff Jewell Williams lost his bid for a third term to former police officer Rochelle Bilal


In theory, yes. The ballot probably says vote for seven on it, but you can vote for any number up to that and it'll still be counted.

ah so its like here when we vote for Supreme Court judges and it says vote for any seven. We will be voting for it November. There are 13 districts across the state and there will be elections in all of them. Judges are elected to 10 year terms i believe

(For those who dont know the Supreme Court is not the highest court in New York. Its a criminal court. The highest court is the Court of Appeals and its appointed by the Governor.)

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Wed May 22, 2019 3:42 pm

Yet another amendment from Texas going to the Plaza today.

Texas will also be voting on an amendment that would dedicate all sporting goods sales tax revenue to the state Parks and Wildlife Department and the Texas Historical Commission. Currently, the Legislature decide how much tax money goes to them. Texas seldom refuses these, so it'll likely pass.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Wed May 22, 2019 3:45 pm

Shrillland wrote:Yet another amendment from Texas going to the Plaza today.

Texas will also be voting on an amendment that would dedicate all sporting goods sales tax revenue to the state Parks and Wildlife Department and the Texas Historical Commission. Currently, the Legislature decide how much tax money goes to them. Texas seldom refuses these, so it'll likely pass.

I think that's a wonderful idea. Why would anyone be against that?

And was I correct in comparing at the at large city council election in Philadelphia to Supreme Court elections in New York? The reason I ask is im trying to make sure i understating limited voting as this is the first time I've heard of it.
Last edited by San Lumen on Wed May 22, 2019 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Wed May 22, 2019 3:46 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Yet another amendment from Texas going to the Plaza today.

Texas will also be voting on an amendment that would dedicate all sporting goods sales tax revenue to the state Parks and Wildlife Department and the Texas Historical Commission. Currently, the Legislature decide how much tax money goes to them. Texas seldom refuses these, so it'll likely pass.

I think that's a wonderful idea. Why would anyone be against that?

And was I correct in comparing at the at large city council council election in Philadelphia to Supreme Court elections in New York? The reason I ask is im trying to make sure i understating limited voting as this is the first time I've heard of it.


Yes, that's about right.
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Pasong Tirad
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Postby Pasong Tirad » Thu May 23, 2019 8:09 pm

Apparently Joey "I was being a Nazi ironically" Salads is running for congress as a guy that fucks.

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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Thu May 23, 2019 8:20 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:Apparently Joey "I was being a Nazi ironically" Salads is running for congress as a guy that fucks.


So with sadness in my heart
I feel the best thing I could do
is end it all and leave forever

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Gormwood
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Postby Gormwood » Thu May 23, 2019 8:22 pm

Pasong Tirad wrote:Apparently Joey "I was being a Nazi ironically" Salads is running for congress as a guy that fucks.

Because we need yet another wannabe mobster in the U.S. government.
Bloodthirsty savages who call for violence against the Right while simultaneously being unarmed defenseless sissies who will get slaughtered by the gun-toting Right in a civil war.
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Arlenton
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Postby Arlenton » Thu May 23, 2019 9:21 pm

Auzkhia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:gerrymandering should be illegal

It is, but the catch is that you have sue to prove it. And those who gerrymander argue that it isn't as part of their defense. Pennsylvania got its congressional districts redrawn because of a court order as the result of a lawsuit.

In many cases, gerrymandering is legally required by the voting rights act.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Thu May 23, 2019 9:38 pm

Arlenton wrote:
Auzkhia wrote:It is, but the catch is that you have sue to prove it. And those who gerrymander argue that it isn't as part of their defense. Pennsylvania got its congressional districts redrawn because of a court order as the result of a lawsuit.

In many cases, gerrymandering is legally required by the voting rights act.


Not exactly. It says that you can't draw districts that deliberately dilute minority populations, but Easley v. Cromartie said that gerrymandering a district to be safe for a party was not automatically racial just because a party's supporters disproportionately came from a minority group.
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Arlenton
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Postby Arlenton » Thu May 23, 2019 9:43 pm

Shrillland wrote:First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.

I think Bevin's gunna win. Sure Beshear will do better in some urban areas, but unlike in 2015 he'll get get crushed in rural areas and coal country. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Beshear loses Elliot county. This race reminds me of the 2018 TN senate race where Bredesen lost every single ancestrally Dem rural white county despite winning them in the past.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Thu May 23, 2019 9:49 pm

Arlenton wrote:
Shrillland wrote:First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.

I think Bevin's gunna win. Sure Beshear will do better in some urban areas, but unlike in 2015 he'll get get crushed in rural areas and coal country. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Beshear loses Elliot county. This race reminds me of the 2018 TN senate race where Bredesen lost every single ancestrally Dem rural white county despite winning them in the past.


That's because he did badly in the debates and Blackburn was successful in reminding them of what his win would mean on the national level. Kentucky doesn't really have that situation being an off-year race. Weirdly enough, whenever the Kentucky Legislature proposes switching to an even-numbered year, it's the Democrats that are opposed to it because they know that they couldn't win if they couldn't separate commonwealth issues from national ones.

Right now, Beshear's ahead by 10 points, and his family name's well-loved. He could probably win by just standing up for coal country despite what the national party would think.
Last edited by Shrillland on Thu May 23, 2019 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Arlenton
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Postby Arlenton » Thu May 23, 2019 9:49 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Arlenton wrote:In many cases, gerrymandering is legally required by the voting rights act.


Not exactly. It says that you can't draw districts that deliberately dilute minority populations, but Easley v. Cromartie said that gerrymandering a district to be safe for a party was not automatically racial just because a party's supporters disproportionately came from a minority group.

Intentionally creating minority-majority districts is gerrymandering.

The VRA requires this.

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Arlenton
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Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Thu May 23, 2019 9:52 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Arlenton wrote:I think Bevin's gunna win. Sure Beshear will do better in some urban areas, but unlike in 2015 he'll get get crushed in rural areas and coal country. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if Beshear loses Elliot county. This race reminds me of the 2018 TN senate race where Bredesen lost every single ancestrally Dem rural white county despite winning them in the past.


That's because he did badly in the debates and Blackburn was successful in reminding them of what his win would mean on the national level. Kentucky doesn't really have that situation being an off-year race. Weirdly enough, whenever the Kentucky Legislature proposes switching to an even-numbered year, it's the Democrats that are opposed to it because they know that they couldn't win if they couldn't separate commonwealth issues from national ones.

Right now, Beshear's ahead by 10 points, and his family name's well-loved. He could probably win by just standing up for coal country despite what the national party would think.

Because Kentucky polling is great. Ask Governor Conway.

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Shrillland
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Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Shrillland » Thu May 23, 2019 9:57 pm

Arlenton wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Not exactly. It says that you can't draw districts that deliberately dilute minority populations, but Easley v. Cromartie said that gerrymandering a district to be safe for a party was not automatically racial just because a party's supporters disproportionately came from a minority group.

Intentionally creating minority-majority districts is gerrymandering.

The VRA requires this.


Section 2 only says that minority votes can't be unnecessarily diluted, it doesn't automatically require that they be given districts. Section 5 is practically defunct since Shelby Count v. Holder. Section 2 and the interpretation from Thornburg v. Gingles does preclude at-large or straight up PR systems, but that's different from saying that there absolutely have to be minority-majority districts.
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Arlenton
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Postby Arlenton » Thu May 23, 2019 10:04 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Arlenton wrote:Intentionally creating minority-majority districts is gerrymandering.

The VRA requires this.


Section 2 only says that minority votes can't be unnecessarily diluted, it doesn't automatically require that they be given districts. Section 5 is practically defunct since Shelby Count v. Holder. Section 2 and the interpretation from Thornburg v. Gingles does preclude at-large or straight up PR systems, but that's different from saying that there absolutely have to be minority-majority districts.

I thought that according to Section 2, if there is racially polarized voting and a minority-majority districts can be drawn, then it must be drawn.

http://www.publicmapping.org/what-is-redistricting/redistricting-criteria-the-voting-rights-act

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