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2019 US Miscellaneous Election Thread

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Mystic Warriors
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Postby Mystic Warriors » Fri May 10, 2019 4:02 am

Shrillland wrote:I must retract a pronouncement from last night: Colorado usually has all their votes in within 45 minutes, but that wasn't the case here. IO 301 has, in fact, been approved: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/05/08/denver-psychedelic-magic-mushroom/

Magic mushrooms are now decriminalised in Denver.



Good too hear.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon May 13, 2019 10:35 am

Another addition to the Plaza from Texas.

Their second proposal would amend the constitution to allow the legislature to double the amount of bonds that the state could give the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas(CPRIT) from $3 billion to $6 billion, and limit the state to issuing $300 million of bonds annually. CPRIT was created with Prop 15 in 2007 with the initial $3 billion, but they're expected to run out of money as soon as next year, so this would keep them going until roughly 2050. Too early for me to say if it'll pass.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon May 13, 2019 2:34 pm

Shrillland wrote:I must retract a pronouncement from last night: Colorado usually has all their votes in within 45 minutes, but that wasn't the case here. IO 301 has, in fact, been approved: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/05/08/denver-psychedelic-magic-mushroom/

Magic mushrooms are now decriminalised in Denver.

well that's unexpected

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Well, Dan Bishop won the Charlotte-Fayetteville primary tonight, so the architect of HB2(the original "bathroom bill") will be going against Dan McCready on September 10.

Here's my take on next week.

US House: No primaries but an actual byelection coming up for Pennsylvania's 12th(State College-Susquehanna Valley). State Rep. Fred Keller will be running for the Republicans and Marc Friedenberg for the Democrats. This is a fairly safe red seat, so I'm going to say Keller will win.

States: Kentucky is having their gubernatorial primaries next week, and they could actually flip in November, so pay attention. On the Republican side, the incumbent Governor Matt Bevin has a commanding lead in the primary polls, not so much general polls, of which more anon. He'll easily win as will his running mate, State Sen. Ralph Alvarado. On the Democratic side, the most likely winner is current Commonwealth Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of popular former Governor Steve Beshear. The Progressive wing, meanwhile, is backing former Commonwealth Auditor Adam Edelen, including the Sierra Club, the Kentucky chapter of AFSCME, and for some reason, the Mayor of Cincinnati. Nonetheless, Beshear will win his primary, and he actually polls ahead of Bevin by eight points, albeit back in December, so it'll be close.

Cities: Finally, a mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Incumbent Jim Kenney will easily win for the Democrats, and I'll say Daphne Goggins for the Republicans with Kenney easily winning in November.
Last edited by Shrillland on Tue May 14, 2019 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue May 14, 2019 8:34 pm

Shrillland wrote:Well, Dan Bishop won the Charlotte-Fayetteville primary tonight, so the architect of HB2(the original "bathroom bill") will be going against Dan McCready on September 10.

Here's my take on next week.

US House: No primaries but an actual byelection coming up for Pennsylvania's 12th(State College-Susquehanna Valley). State Rep. Fred Keller will be running for the Republicans and Marc Friedenberg for the Democrats. This is a fairly safe red seat, so I'm going to say Keller will win.

States: Kentucky is having their gubernatorial primaries next week, and they could actually flip in November, so pay attention. On the Republican side, the incumbent Governor Matt Bevin has a commanding lead in the primary polls, not so much general polls, of which more anon. He'll easily win as will his running mate, State Sen. Ralph Alvarado. On the Democratic side, the most likely winner is current Commonwealth Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of popular former Governor Steve Beshear. The Progressive wing, meanwhile, is backing former Commonwealth Auditor Adam Edelen, including the Sierra Club, the Kentucky chapter of AFSCME, and for some reason, the Mayor of Cincinnati. Nonetheless, Beshear will win his primary, and he actually polls ahead of Bevin by eight points, albeit back in December, so it'll be close.

Cities: Finally, a mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Incumbent Jim Kenney will easily win for the Democrats, and I'll say Daphne Goggins for the Republicans with Kenney easily winning in November.


There is no Republican mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Daphne Goggins dropped out. Attorney Billy Ciancaglini will get the honor of being crushed by Kenney in the November if he wins the primary against City Controller Alan L. Butkovitz and State Senator Anthony Williams

There are also three special elections for the Pennsylvania legislature

The first is HD-11 in Butler County which contains the county seat of Butler. The incumbent resigned due to rape allegations. This should be a easy Republican hold

There will also be be two state senate specials. A win in either one of these for Democrats would make taking the the State Senate next year even easier. Its unlikely though as both are very red districts

SD-33 contains all of Adams County and parts of Cumberland County, Franklin County and York County. Gettysburg where the famous Civil War battle took place that many say was the turning point of the war is in this district. It will almost certainly stay red as this district has not sent a Democrat to Harrisburg since 1936.

SD-41 contains all of Armstrong County and Indiana County and parts of Butler County and Westmoreland County. This will also be a near certain Republican hold.
Last edited by San Lumen on Wed May 15, 2019 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Auzkhia
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Postby Auzkhia » Tue May 14, 2019 9:09 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:Well, Dan Bishop won the Charlotte-Fayetteville primary tonight, so the architect of HB2(the original "bathroom bill") will be going against Dan McCready on September 10.

Here's my take on next week.

US House: No primaries but an actual byelection coming up for Pennsylvania's 12th(State College-Susquehanna Valley). State Rep. Fred Keller will be running for the Republicans and Marc Friedenberg for the Democrats. This is a fairly safe red seat, so I'm going to say Keller will win.

States: Kentucky is having their gubernatorial primaries next week, and they could actually flip in November, so pay attention. On the Republican side, the incumbent Governor Matt Bevin has a commanding lead in the primary polls, not so much general polls, of which more anon. He'll easily win as will his running mate, State Sen. Ralph Alvarado. On the Democratic side, the most likely winner is current Commonwealth Attorney General Andy Beshear, son of popular former Governor Steve Beshear. The Progressive wing, meanwhile, is backing former Commonwealth Auditor Adam Edelen, including the Sierra Club, the Kentucky chapter of AFSCME, and for some reason, the Mayor of Cincinnati. Nonetheless, Beshear will win his primary, and he actually polls ahead of Bevin by eight points, albeit back in December, so it'll be close.

Cities: Finally, a mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Incumbent Jim Kenney will easily win for the Democrats, and I'll say Daphne Goggins for the Republicans with Kenney easily winning in November.


There is no Republican mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Daphne Goggins dropped out. Attorney Billy Ciancaglini will get the honor of being crushed by Kenney in the November if he wins the primary against City Controller Alan L. Butkovitz and State Senator Anthony Williams

There are also three special elections for the Pennsylvania legislature

The first is HD-11 in Butler County which contains the county seat of Butler. This should be a easy Republican hold

There will also be be two state senate specials. A win in either one of these for Democrats would make taking the the State Senate next year even easier. Its unlikely though as both are very red districts

SD-33 contains all of Adams County and parts of Cumberland County, Franklin County and York County. Gettysburg where the famous Civil War battle took place that many say was the turning point of the war is in this district. It will almost certainly stay red as this district has not sent a Democrat to Harrisburg since 1936.

SD-41 contains all of Armstrong County and Indiana County and parts of Butler County and Westmoreland County. This will also be a near certain Republican hold.

A part time professor at my university tried to run against Fred Keller for his seat in the PA-85 state house district, but he was only a write-in. The General Assembly districts for house and senate are so gerrymandered in the republicans' favor.

These are safe districts. Marc Friedenberg tried running for that district before when it was the 10th.

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The Republic of Fore
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Postby The Republic of Fore » Tue May 14, 2019 9:21 pm

As a Washington resident, I think Eyman's initiates will probably pass. However, they tend to get struck down by the courts anyway. Twice we've voted to stop the legislature from raising taxes without a 2/3 majority. But, since our supreme court is elected we get mostly leftwing judges.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Wed May 15, 2019 3:58 pm

Auzkhia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
There is no Republican mayoral primary in Philadelphia. Daphne Goggins dropped out. Attorney Billy Ciancaglini will get the honor of being crushed by Kenney in the November if he wins the primary against City Controller Alan L. Butkovitz and State Senator Anthony Williams

There are also three special elections for the Pennsylvania legislature

The first is HD-11 in Butler County which contains the county seat of Butler. This should be a easy Republican hold

There will also be be two state senate specials. A win in either one of these for Democrats would make taking the the State Senate next year even easier. Its unlikely though as both are very red districts

SD-33 contains all of Adams County and parts of Cumberland County, Franklin County and York County. Gettysburg where the famous Civil War battle took place that many say was the turning point of the war is in this district. It will almost certainly stay red as this district has not sent a Democrat to Harrisburg since 1936.

SD-41 contains all of Armstrong County and Indiana County and parts of Butler County and Westmoreland County. This will also be a near certain Republican hold.

A part time professor at my university tried to run against Fred Keller for his seat in the PA-85 state house district, but he was only a write-in. The General Assembly districts for house and senate are so gerrymandered in the republicans' favor.

These are safe districts. Marc Friedenberg tried running for that district before when it was the 10th.

gerrymandering should be illegal

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Auzkhia
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Postby Auzkhia » Sat May 18, 2019 1:08 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Auzkhia wrote:A part time professor at my university tried to run against Fred Keller for his seat in the PA-85 state house district, but he was only a write-in. The General Assembly districts for house and senate are so gerrymandered in the republicans' favor.

These are safe districts. Marc Friedenberg tried running for that district before when it was the 10th.

gerrymandering should be illegal

It is, but the catch is that you have sue to prove it. And those who gerrymander argue that it isn't as part of their defense. Pennsylvania got its congressional districts redrawn because of a court order as the result of a lawsuit.

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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Sat May 18, 2019 1:10 pm

Auzkhia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:gerrymandering should be illegal

It is, but the catch is that you have sue to prove it. And those who gerrymander argue that it isn't as part of their defense. Pennsylvania got its congressional districts redrawn because of a court order as the result of a lawsuit.

There is no law or court case im aware of that says it is. The Pennsylvania lines where redraw as the court ruled that the current lines violated the state constitution by splitting up counties and municipalities if i recall correctly

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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Sun May 19, 2019 7:02 am

Georgia, I pity you. I pity you because your governor is a fucking powermongering cheating fucking douchebag.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has vetoed a bill that would have required recess in elementary schools across the state.

Governor Kemp, in explaining the veto, said that local school boards of education currently set recess policies for students in kindergarten through eighth grade in Georgia “based on a thorough understanding of day-to-day educational operations as well as regular interaction with administrators, educators, families, and students.”

Kemp said the new bill would take control away from those school boards.

“While I support expanded recess opportunities for Georgia’s students, I am a firm believer in local control, especially in education,” Kemp said in his explanation. “This legislation would impose unreasonable burdens on educational leaders without meaningful justification.”

The bill passed by a vote of 160-11 in the House and 48-4 in the Senate before reaching the governor.

The legislation was one of 14 bills that Kemp announced that he vetoed on May 10.


On a related note: why is Brian Kemp such a fucking powermongering cheating fucking douchebag?

Oh, and one last thing: what are those 13 other bills he's vetoed?
Last edited by Duhon on Sun May 19, 2019 7:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Hakons
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Postby Hakons » Sun May 19, 2019 7:17 am

Duhon wrote:Georgia, I pity you. I pity you because your governor is a fucking powermongering cheating fucking douchebag.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp has vetoed a bill that would have required recess in elementary schools across the state.

Governor Kemp, in explaining the veto, said that local school boards of education currently set recess policies for students in kindergarten through eighth grade in Georgia “based on a thorough understanding of day-to-day educational operations as well as regular interaction with administrators, educators, families, and students.”

Kemp said the new bill would take control away from those school boards.

“While I support expanded recess opportunities for Georgia’s students, I am a firm believer in local control, especially in education,” Kemp said in his explanation. “This legislation would impose unreasonable burdens on educational leaders without meaningful justification.”

The bill passed by a vote of 160-11 in the House and 48-4 in the Senate before reaching the governor.

The legislation was one of 14 bills that Kemp announced that he vetoed on May 10.


On a related note: why is Brian Kemp such a fucking powermongering cheating fucking douchebag?

Oh, and one last thing: what are those 13 other bills he's vetoed?


I... don't see how keeping power in school municipalities is... powermongering? If the law requires students go to recess, that removes a form of discipline (i.e. denying recess because of bad behavior).
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon May 20, 2019 2:14 pm

The Plaza gets three more additions today, all from Texas.

Proposal number three(they'll get proper numbers later) is another amendment that would double the General Land Office's(Texas' agency in charge of land and mineral rights that actually pre-dates the state itself) allowed contribution to the state education fund from $300 to $600 million. Concerning how it was bipartisan in the legislature, I'll say it'll probably pass.

The next proposal is an amendment that would allow elected and appointed municipal judges to hold more than one office in one municipality at the same time. Currently, this is only allowed for appointed municipal judges in Texas Municipal Courts, which are fairly low-level affairs just a step up from Justices of the Peace. I'm not so confident this one could be approved, we'll have to wait for the polls.

Next, we have an amendment that would exempt precious metals being held in precious metal depositories from property taxes. Again, it looks like an easy approval right now.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon May 20, 2019 2:16 pm

Shrillland wrote:The Plaza gets three more additions today, all from Texas.

Proposal number three(they'll get proper numbers later) is another amendment that would double the General Land Office's(Texas' agency in charge of land and mineral rights that actually pre-dates the state itself) allowed contribution to the state education fund from $300 to $600 million. Concerning how it was bipartisan in the legislature, I'll say it'll probably pass.

The next proposal is an amendment that would allow elected and appointed municipal judges to hold more than one office in one municipality at the same time. Currently, this is only allowed for appointed municipal judges in Texas Municipal Courts, which are fairly low-level affairs just a step up from Justices of the Peace. I'm not so confident this one could be approved, we'll have to wait for the polls.

Next, we have an amendment that would exempt precious metals being held in precious metal depositories from property taxes. Again, it looks like an easy approval right now.

Allowing any elected official to hold more than one office is asking for trouble and inviting corruption It used to be allowed in New Jersey but was banned some years back.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon May 20, 2019 2:23 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:The Plaza gets three more additions today, all from Texas.

Proposal number three(they'll get proper numbers later) is another amendment that would double the General Land Office's(Texas' agency in charge of land and mineral rights that actually pre-dates the state itself) allowed contribution to the state education fund from $300 to $600 million. Concerning how it was bipartisan in the legislature, I'll say it'll probably pass.

The next proposal is an amendment that would allow elected and appointed municipal judges to hold more than one office in one municipality at the same time. Currently, this is only allowed for appointed municipal judges in Texas Municipal Courts, which are fairly low-level affairs just a step up from Justices of the Peace. I'm not so confident this one could be approved, we'll have to wait for the polls.

Next, we have an amendment that would exempt precious metals being held in precious metal depositories from property taxes. Again, it looks like an easy approval right now.

Allowing any elected official to hold more than one office is asking for trouble and inviting corruption It used to be allowed in New Jersey but was banned some years back.


Well, the state constitution bans it too except for certain lower offices. This is mostly because some counties have less than 100 people and can't fill their civil offices without allowing people to hold more then one office. Effectively, I think what they're trying to do is allow Municipal Judges to be Justices of the Peace as well since their work is on the same level comparatively speaking(Municipal Courts only deal with small infractions such as juvenile/traffic offences).
Last edited by Shrillland on Mon May 20, 2019 2:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon May 20, 2019 2:52 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Allowing any elected official to hold more than one office is asking for trouble and inviting corruption It used to be allowed in New Jersey but was banned some years back.


Well, the state constitution bans it too except for certain lower offices. This is mostly because some counties have less than 100 people and can't fill their civil offices without allowing people to hold more then one office. Effectively, I think what they're trying to do is allow Municipal Judges to be Justices of the Peace as well since their work is on the same level comparatively speaking(Municipal Courts only deal with small infractions such as juvenile/traffic offences).

Put in that context it doesn’t sound like such a bad idea

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon May 20, 2019 2:53 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Well, the state constitution bans it too except for certain lower offices. This is mostly because some counties have less than 100 people and can't fill their civil offices without allowing people to hold more then one office. Effectively, I think what they're trying to do is allow Municipal Judges to be Justices of the Peace as well since their work is on the same level comparatively speaking(Municipal Courts only deal with small infractions such as juvenile/traffic offences).

Put in that context it doesn’t sound like such a bad idea


I'm not trying to sway you or anything, I'm just trying to explain the most likely reason why this was passed on a bipartisan basis.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon May 20, 2019 3:16 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Put in that context it doesn’t sound like such a bad idea


I'm not trying to sway you or anything, I'm just trying to explain the most likely reason why this was passed on a bipartisan basis.


It makes sense

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Mon May 20, 2019 6:32 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
I'm not trying to sway you or anything, I'm just trying to explain the most likely reason why this was passed on a bipartisan basis.


It makes sense


I've got to redo that becuase Ballotpedia's clarified what it actually does: Currently, municipal judges can be appointed to be municipal judges in more than one city at a time, what this amendment would do is allow them to run for elected judgeships in multiple cities.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 5:09 pm

Another proposal from Texas for the plaza.

This next one would amend the constitution to ban the state from levying any income taxes on individuals. Texas already has no state income tax, and currently all income tax proposals have to be approved by voters. By making it a constitutional amendment, it raises the bar to a two-thirds majority of the legislature instead of a simple majority. Texas being Texas, this will surely pass.
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Postby Duhon » Tue May 21, 2019 5:26 pm

Apparently Donald Trump Jr. is contemplating a run for mayor of New York City, if this is to be believed.

Not that I believe that shit for a moment, but if he were to actually run, how badly will he lose?

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 5:31 pm

Duhon wrote:Apparently Donald Trump Jr. is contemplating a run for mayor of New York City, if this is to be believed.

Not that I believe that shit for a moment, but if he were to actually run, how badly will he lose?


Very, very badly, as his father would say.
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Duhon
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Postby Duhon » Tue May 21, 2019 5:33 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Duhon wrote:Apparently Donald Trump Jr. is contemplating a run for mayor of New York City, if this is to be believed.

Not that I believe that shit for a moment, but if he were to actually run, how badly will he lose?


Very, very badly, as his father would say.


5% of the vote? 1%? A hundred votes, total?

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 5:38 pm

Duhon wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Very, very badly, as his father would say.


5% of the vote? 1%? A hundred votes, total?


Nah, maybe 20-25%. Staten Island exists, lest we forget.
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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Tue May 21, 2019 6:58 pm

First and foremost, GOP hold State College-Susquehanna, Keller has over 70% of the vote with 53% in.

The state-level byelections are also GOP holds.

In Kentucky, Incumbent GOP Governor Matt Bevin will be going up against Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear in what looks like an uphill climb for Bevin to stay in office.

As for next week, there are no votes next week...so, yeah. Nothing until June 4, and I'll have that up this time next week.
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