Oil exporting People wrote:The New California Republic wrote:They really aren't, especially with modern MIRVs combined with decoys that would saturate the targeting screen, but OK. One of the reasons that SDI failed was its inability to deal with saturation, which is the inevitable Russian counter to SDI and ABM in general in the event of a massed nuclear strike. NIKE would also fail in that regard. Target tracking and discrimination was the Achilles heel of systems like NIKE and SDI in general. The entire system implemented as a shield over the USA would be economically unfeasible and easily countered; more so if the decoys employ jammers and chaff.
You're failing to account for massive transformations in missile technology since then, especially in ABM defenses since the U.S. now had multiple such systems in action. You're also failing to account for the fact this isn't the Cold War with roughly 3,000 ICBMs between the Superpowers, but instead an environment where both have about 1,000.
Actually I am accounting for it, but I'm also accounting for MIRV technology having kept pace as well, including the use of (as I have said) multiple sophisticated decoys included in each MIRV bus with jammers and chaff, which would exponentially multiply the number of targets from around 1,600 warheads to tens or even hundreds of thousands of targets. The targeting screens for any ABM system would become a clusterfuck of false and ghosted targets. The Russians have also been hardening the MIRV bus and each warhead against radiation and heat, making them much harder to kill with nuclear-tipped ABM systems. We are rapidly approaching an age whereby nothing short of a direct hit or a near miss from a nuclear-tipped ABM will be sufficient to kill them, and will warrant higher and higher yields on the warheads of the ABM system for them to remain effective, possibly to a point that becomes unjustifiable.