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World War III Prediction Thread

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Will there be a WWIII in the near future?

Yes, within the next year
6
5%
Yes, within the next 5 years
8
7%
Yes, within the next 10 years
17
15%
Yes, within the next 20 years
17
15%
Yes, within the next 50 years
20
17%
There will be no World War III in my lifetime
47
41%
 
Total votes : 115

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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:03 pm

The New California Republic wrote:
Oil exporting People wrote:
And, again, that's not true. NIKE missiles carrying nuclear warheads are sufficient to defeat MIRV-tipped ICBMs and, given current arsenal sizes, more than a valid option.

ABM systems with nuclear warheads are not a valid counter to MIRVs or decoys, inability to deal with them is one of the reasons why A-35 was retired, and it is debatable whether newer systems like Gorgon and the much older NIKE can deal with them.


ABM systems are more than sufficient to defeat MIRVs, that's part of the basis of AEGIS which we've had since the 80s. The real reason NIKE got retired is that McNamara was a fuck and because of 'Nam. The newer missiles we're deploying can be easily used to foster a new generation of ABM defenses, indeed, we've partially already got one in place in America and attempted to build one in Europe.
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The New California Republic
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Postby The New California Republic » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:21 pm

Oil exporting People wrote:
The New California Republic wrote:ABM systems with nuclear warheads are not a valid counter to MIRVs or decoys, inability to deal with them is one of the reasons why A-35 was retired, and it is debatable whether newer systems like Gorgon and the much older NIKE can deal with them.


ABM systems are more than sufficient to defeat MIRVs, that's part of the basis of AEGIS which we've had since the 80s.

They really aren't, especially with modern MIRVs combined with decoys that would saturate the targeting screen, but OK. One of the reasons that SDI failed was its inability to deal with saturation, which is the inevitable Russian counter to SDI and ABM in general in the event of a massed nuclear strike. NIKE would also fail in that regard. Target tracking and discrimination was the Achilles heel of systems like NIKE and SDI in general. The entire system implemented as a shield over the USA would be economically unfeasible and easily countered; more so if the decoys employ jammers and chaff.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

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The Galactic Liberal Democracy
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Postby The Galactic Liberal Democracy » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:23 pm

WW3 is either going to be really soon or in a while.
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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:37 pm

The New California Republic wrote:They really aren't, especially with modern MIRVs combined with decoys that would saturate the targeting screen, but OK. One of the reasons that SDI failed was its inability to deal with saturation, which is the inevitable Russian counter to SDI and ABM in general in the event of a massed nuclear strike. NIKE would also fail in that regard. Target tracking and discrimination was the Achilles heel of systems like NIKE and SDI in general. The entire system implemented as a shield over the USA would be economically unfeasible and easily countered; more so if the decoys employ jammers and chaff.


You're failing to account for massive transformations in missile technology since then, especially in ABM defenses since the U.S. now had multiple such systems in action. You're also failing to account for the fact this isn't the Cold War with roughly 3,000 ICBMs between the Superpowers, but instead an environment where both have about 1,000.
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Dogmeat
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Postby Dogmeat » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:40 pm

The Galactic Liberal Democracy wrote:WW3 is either going to be really soon or in a while.

Way to narrow it down.
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Christian Confederation
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Postby Christian Confederation » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:44 pm

I'd be screwed an AFB is no more than 20-25 miles from my house.
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The New California Republic
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Postby The New California Republic » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:46 pm

Oil exporting People wrote:
The New California Republic wrote:They really aren't, especially with modern MIRVs combined with decoys that would saturate the targeting screen, but OK. One of the reasons that SDI failed was its inability to deal with saturation, which is the inevitable Russian counter to SDI and ABM in general in the event of a massed nuclear strike. NIKE would also fail in that regard. Target tracking and discrimination was the Achilles heel of systems like NIKE and SDI in general. The entire system implemented as a shield over the USA would be economically unfeasible and easily countered; more so if the decoys employ jammers and chaff.


You're failing to account for massive transformations in missile technology since then, especially in ABM defenses since the U.S. now had multiple such systems in action. You're also failing to account for the fact this isn't the Cold War with roughly 3,000 ICBMs between the Superpowers, but instead an environment where both have about 1,000.

Actually I am accounting for it, but I'm also accounting for MIRV technology having kept pace as well, including the use of (as I have said) multiple sophisticated decoys included in each MIRV bus with jammers and chaff, which would exponentially multiply the number of targets from around 1,600 warheads to tens or even hundreds of thousands of targets. The targeting screens for any ABM system would become a clusterfuck of false and ghosted targets. The Russians have also been hardening the MIRV bus and each warhead against radiation and heat, making them much harder to kill with nuclear-tipped ABM systems. We are rapidly approaching an age whereby nothing short of a direct hit or a near miss from a nuclear-tipped ABM will be sufficient to kill them, and will warrant higher and higher yields on the warheads of the ABM system for them to remain effective, possibly to a point that becomes unjustifiable.
Last edited by The New California Republic on Sat Jan 05, 2019 6:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

The Irradiated Wasteland of The New California Republic: depicting the expanded NCR, several years after the total victory over Caesar's Legion, and the annexation of New Vegas and its surrounding areas.

White-collared conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me
They're hoping soon, my kind will drop and die
But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
Wave on, wave on
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

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The New California Republic
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Postby The New California Republic » Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:54 pm

Christian Confederation wrote:I'd be screwed an AFB is no more than 20-25 miles from my house.

Which one?
Last edited by Sigmund Freud on Sat Sep 23, 1939 2:23 am, edited 999 times in total.

The Irradiated Wasteland of The New California Republic: depicting the expanded NCR, several years after the total victory over Caesar's Legion, and the annexation of New Vegas and its surrounding areas.

White-collared conservatives flashing down the street
Pointing their plastic finger at me
They're hoping soon, my kind will drop and die
But I'm going to wave my freak flag high
Wave on, wave on
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:22 pm

The New California Republic wrote:Actually I am accounting for it, but I'm also accounting for MIRV technology having kept pace as well, including the use of (as I have said) multiple sophisticated decoys included in each MIRV bus with jammers and chaff, which would exponentially multiply the number of targets from around 1,600 warheads to tens or even hundreds of thousands of targets. The targeting screens for any ABM system would become a clusterfuck of false and ghosted targets. The Russians have also been hardening the MIRV bus and each warhead against radiation and heat, making them much harder to kill with nuclear-tipped ABM systems. We are rapidly approaching an age whereby nothing short of a direct hit or a near miss from a nuclear-tipped ABM will be sufficient to kill them, and will warrant higher and higher yields on the warheads of the ABM system for them to remain effective, possibly to a point that becomes unjustifiable.


..and nuclear tipped missiles account for that in response.
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UniversalCommons
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Postby UniversalCommons » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:39 pm

Live in the southern hemisphere in a place like Brazil. There are not as many targets in the global south.

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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:47 pm

UniversalCommons wrote:Live in the southern hemisphere in a place like Brazil. There are not as many targets in the global south.


There are no targets in the Global South, hell there isn't much to be afraid of in the Northern Hemisphere either.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:41 pm

-Ocelot- wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:Hypothetically, how should one prepare for World War III?

I imagine having a private nuclear bunker built in a likely neutral country would be useful?

Maybe have one of those hideouts like in the Cloverfield bunker?


There is nothing you can do.

In the event of a nuclear conflict, the damage caused to the economy and the environment would be so big thorough that no society would recover, including neutral countries. Nuclear fallout doesn't care about borders and no country can support it's population without being part of the technologically advanced globalized economy. The ones killed by the initial blasts would be the luckiest, in my opinion.

Even if you had a huge bunker with unlimited supplies, depression would get the best of you eventually. That or some other malfunction you couldn't solve with the tools stored inside the bunker. Then there is the possibility of getting sick or injured. Getting out of the bunker is a big "if" because the entire world could be covered in nuclear fallout that would take many years to clear and most places would be devoid of people anyway.


What are the chances of NA's League of Legends Server still running in a nuclear exchange scenario?

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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:41 pm

The Galactic Liberal Democracy wrote:WW3 is either going to be really soon or in a while.


Like within this year soon?

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:56 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:
-Ocelot- wrote:
There is nothing you can do.

In the event of a nuclear conflict, the damage caused to the economy and the environment would be so big thorough that no society would recover, including neutral countries. Nuclear fallout doesn't care about borders and no country can support it's population without being part of the technologically advanced globalized economy. The ones killed by the initial blasts would be the luckiest, in my opinion.

Even if you had a huge bunker with unlimited supplies, depression would get the best of you eventually. That or some other malfunction you couldn't solve with the tools stored inside the bunker. Then there is the possibility of getting sick or injured. Getting out of the bunker is a big "if" because the entire world could be covered in nuclear fallout that would take many years to clear and most places would be devoid of people anyway.


What are the chances of NA's League of Legends Server still running in a nuclear exchange scenario?

Near zero
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Sovaal
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Postby Sovaal » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:58 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
What are the chances of NA's League of Legends Server still running in a nuclear exchange scenario?

Near zero

Not that there be anyone left to play on them.
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Shofercia
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Postby Shofercia » Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:58 pm

Kowani wrote:
Shofercia wrote:There was no World War between 1815 and 1914. If humanity can do it without nukes for a century, humanity can do it with nukes for two centuries or more!

I mean, the 7 years war was arguably a World War, so take that however you like...


Might want to check the dates on that one, chief ;)


The National Salvation Front for Russia wrote:
Kowani wrote:I mean, the 7 years war was arguably a World War, so take that however you like...

1756 – 1763


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Sovaal
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Postby Sovaal » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:00 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Kowani wrote:I mean, the 7 years war was arguably a World War, so take that however you like...


Might want to check the dates on that one, chief ;)


The National Salvation Front for Russia wrote:1756 – 1763


Your ninja skills are quite good :hug:

What, didn’t you know that George Washington started the war when he lead Union forces against French Legionaies during the Crimean War?
Most of the time I have no idea what the hell I'm doing or talking about.

”Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe.
No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is
the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time." -
Winston Churchill, 1947.

"Rifles, muskets, long-bows and hand-grenades are inherently democratic weapons. A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon – so long as there is no answer to it – gives claws to the weak.” - George Orwell

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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:00 pm

Shofercia wrote:Might want to check the dates on that one, chief ;)


To be honest, the entirety of the 1840s-1870s was a world war of sorts.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:30 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
What are the chances of NA's League of Legends Server still running in a nuclear exchange scenario?

Near zero


then it sounds like I wouldn't like World War III

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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:47 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Near zero


then it sounds like I wouldn't like World War III

Because up until that a Third World War was a bundle of fun.
Last edited by Heloin on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:04 pm

Heloin wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
then it sounds like I wouldn't like World War III

Because up until that a Third World War was a bundle of fun.


If its a couple of big battles and maybe a few nukes launched and it could all be contained in some way, maybe I could have said "Well... I wish it didn't happen but I'm fine with its happening."

However, as soon as I find out that my online gaming may be at risk, this is something that I cannot accept.

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The Greater Ohio Valley
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Postby The Greater Ohio Valley » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:06 pm

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Near zero


then it sounds like I wouldn't like World War III

Nuclear conflicts don’t tend to be fun for anyone since many people will die.
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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:06 pm

The Greater Ohio Valley wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
then it sounds like I wouldn't like World War III

Nuclear conflicts don’t tend to be fun for anyone since many people will die.


I doubt any conflict in the modern day goes nuclear.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:09 pm

Oil exporting People wrote:
The Greater Ohio Valley wrote:Nuclear conflicts don’t tend to be fun for anyone since many people will die.


I doubt any conflict in the modern day goes nuclear.

It might if Russia got desperate. Or if NK actually did launch, or if nuclear terrorism occurs. Or Operation Sampson goes into effect
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Oil exporting People
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Postby Oil exporting People » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:12 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Oil exporting People wrote:
I doubt any conflict in the modern day goes nuclear.

It might if Russia got desperate. Or if NK actually did launch, or if nuclear terrorism occurs. Or Operation Sampson goes into effect


A North Korean launch and Nuclear terrorism are the only real threats I see; even then, damage would be extremely localized. The other two I just can't see happening.
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