NationStates

Corrian wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Michael Pence...

Telconi wrote:

The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Your own happiness.

Everyone should be happy.

Presumably Zex is just acting to advance his own happiness...

Zex wrote:I have openly stated that compassion is weakness; along with being of the personal ideology that I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.

No his personal ideology is that he, in his own words, "I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.".

You can be happy with out doing such things.

Corrian wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Obama was lightning in a bottle. Indiana's always been a conservative state.

Telconi wrote:

Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Michael Pence...

I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.

The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:

Telconi wrote:
Presumably Zex is just acting to advance his own happiness...

Zex wrote:I have openly stated that compassion is weakness; along with being of the personal ideology that I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.

No his personal ideology is that he, in his own words, "I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.".

You can be happy with out doing such things.

-shrug- Someone's going to be afraid, or hateful or angry as a result of just about everything anyone does.

Corrian wrote:

Telconi wrote:
Michael Pence...

I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.

He's not well liked in political circles here. The state GOP was very happy with Mitch Daniels who was governor before Pence and basically assembled a Republican supermajority on the strength of not getting into fights about social policy, Pence turned out to be the opposite. Most state operatives won't say it on the record, but it's an open secret that they thought Pence was a disaster as governor.

We all know some crazy pops out for the democrats, right?

Ngelmish wrote:

Corrian wrote:I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.

He's not well liked in political circles here. The state GOP was very happy with Mitch Daniels who was governor before Pence and basically assembled a Republican supermajority on the strength of not getting into fights about social policy, Pence turned out to be the opposite. Most state operatives won't say it on the record, but it's an open secret that they thought Pence was a disaster as governor.

National office tends to boost good feels. They may have disliked his culture warmongering, but 'Vice President Michael Pence, of Indiana' has a ring that people like, in Indiana.

Ngelmish wrote:Yeah, this strikes me as premature in the sense that it'll be a lot more telling if everybody we expect to run jumps in over the next month, or if some surprising passes happen. It's also hard to game out candidates' strengths and weaknesses when the field hasn't filled out yet.

Of those currently declared? I like Liz Warren, but she's a paper tiger. Even on paper, there are obvious vulnerabilities and on the stump her style is going to come across as "condescending." Neither Castro nor Ojeda have any real business running for president, but they can if they want to.

Of those undeclared, Biden is the most interesting to watch. He may be more effective as a kingmaker than as a candidate, and I think he knows that. Of course, he wants to run for president, so there's that too. The party's smartest bet will be to go with a candidate who has some working executive experience, is relatively new, and can run credibly on ethics -- both in the primary and then as a seamless pivot to the general.

Dems?

I'm going to make some 2020 predictions, save a link to this thread and set a reminder to check it out again sometime in October 2020 to see how much I got right.


Prediction 1: Trump's campaign will make sure that Trump is often seen and photographed in church, but a facial expression of utter boredom and disdain will betray him.

Prediction 2: Melania will do her part for Trump's campaign, but her face will betray her too, her abject misery will be plain to see.

Prediction 3: Republicans past their prime (and usually no longer politically active) will often appear on CNN to denounce Trump's lack of civility, and the talking heads will hail these Republicans as moderate, reasonable American heroes.

Prediction 4: Corporate media will condemn Trump for not waging enough war. Some corporate Dem candidates will do this too. In essence, the so-called "liberal media" will take up the trigger happy neocon ideology of the Bush years to act as contrarians against Trump.

Prediction 5: If Biden runs, Fox News will play the "he's too old" card. If Sanders runs, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC will all play the "he's too old" card, but CNN and MSNBC won't use it against Biden.

Prediction 6: The New York Times, CNN, and others will denounce Medicare For All as too expensive and too radical, and will accuse the Democrats running on Medicare For All of being so radical that they'll cause Trump to be reelected.

Prediction 7: Some Democrat candidates will not support Medicare For All, but they will instead throw around the term "universal access [to healthcare]." And if one of the "universal access" Dems becomes the nominee, Trump's odds of winning reelection will greatly improve.

Prediction 8: Whether Sanders runs or not, social media will be contaminated by insufferable people who blame Sanders for Trump because he dared to contest Clinton's coronation. If he does run, you'll hear this on cable news, and the establishment will bring back the term "Bernie Bros" as a dog whistle for falsely accusing Bernie's young supporters of being sexist. And if they implement this strategy, you will not see any young women Bernie supporters on the news when they're covering his campaign.

Prediction 9: The right-wing media will relentlessly perpetuate their Big Lie that Elizabeth Warren used Native American ancestry to take advantage of affirmative action, despite the fact that never happened.

Prediction 10: Corey Booker will run on a populist left platform, but if elected he will break well over half the promises he will make.

Corrian wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

Page wrote:I'm going to make some 2020 predictions, save a link to this thread and set a reminder to check it out again sometime in October 2020 to see how much I got right.


Prediction 1: Trump's campaign will make sure that Trump is often seen and photographed in church, but a facial expression of utter boredom and disdain will betray him.

Prediction 2: Melania will do her part for Trump's campaign, but her face will betray her too, her abject misery will be plain to see.

Prediction 3: Republicans past their prime (and usually no longer politically active) will often appear on CNN to denounce Trump's lack of civility, and the talking heads will hail these Republicans as moderate, reasonable American heroes.

Prediction 4: Corporate media will condemn Trump for not waging enough war. Some corporate Dem candidates will do this too. In essence, the so-called "liberal media" will take up the trigger happy neocon ideology of the Bush years to act as contrarians against Trump.

Prediction 5: If Biden runs, Fox News will play the "he's too old" card. If Sanders runs, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC will all play the "he's too old" card, but CNN and MSNBC won't use it against Biden.

Prediction 6: The New York Times, CNN, and others will denounce Medicare For All as too expensive and too radical, and will accuse the Democrats running on Medicare For All of being so radical that they'll cause Trump to be reelected.

Prediction 7: Some Democrat candidates will not support Medicare For All, but they will instead throw around the term "universal access [to healthcare]." And if one of the "universal access" Dems becomes the nominee, Trump's odds of winning reelection will greatly improve.

Prediction 8: Whether Sanders runs or not, social media will be contaminated by insufferable people who blame Sanders for Trump because he dared to contest Clinton's coronation. If he does run, you'll hear this on cable news, and the establishment will bring back the term "Bernie Bros" as a dog whistle for falsely accusing Bernie's young supporters of being sexist. And if they implement this strategy, you will not see any young women Bernie supporters on the news when they're covering his campaign.

Prediction 9: The right-wing media will relentlessly perpetuate their Big Lie that Elizabeth Warren used Native American ancestry to take advantage of affirmative action, despite the fact that never happened.

Prediction 10: Corey Booker will run on a populist left platform, but if elected he will break well over half the promises he will make.

10 isnt so much a prediction as a statement of fact. He's shown himself as a more center-corporate Dem who's attempting to court the Progressive left in recent months by co-opting some of their platform and approving other parts of it.

At the very least he's willing to hear them out and would have to listen to them to a degree for the sake of appearances. He might be a pretty decent compromise between the two wings of the Democratic Party. Conversely he could be universally reviled.

We'll see.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

My understanding was always that Ohio is the truest swing state and does whatever the fuck it wants.

Outer Sparta wrote:

Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.

Corrian wrote:

Outer Sparta wrote:Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.

Since 1960 Republicans have won Ohio a total of 9 times while the democrats have won it a total of 6 times. The longest republican streak was from 1980-1988

Thermodolia wrote:

Corrian wrote:Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.

Since 1960 Republicans have won Ohio a total of 9 times while the democrats have won it a total of 6 times. The longest republican streak was from 1980-1988

And from 1964 onwards whoever won Ohio has won the presidency, so I'm pretty confident whoever wins Ohio will win the presidency. But that's getting ahead of myself.

Oh no... not again.. D:

Anyway, if Warren ends up being the nominee, that's pretty good. I'd still prefer Sanders, despite my continuing concerns over that wonderful man's advanced age, but Warren is the next best thing if you're on the left and you prefer pragmatism, reformism or democratic socialism over revolutionary leftism. She's made some dumb decisions here and there (namely, playing into Trump's stupid hands with the whole DNA testing to prove she has native American heritage), but she's got a long, extensive and commendable record of standing up to the plutocrats in DC and in Wall Street.

Major-Tom wrote:

Ngelmish wrote:
Klobuchar is an interesting choice, and one that I'm actually considering. But on the whole, I'd rather not have a congress critter. Those seats are worth their weight in gold.

Klobuchar is immensely popular in Minnesota and has proven to be an effective Senator. Her electability aside, which I believe is high, she’d also likely be an effective and conciliatory President.

MN also leans Blue, I’m sure a hypothetical 2020 Special Election for her seat wouldn’t be particularly competitive.

Klobuchar would honestly be the best bet at this point. Yo Dems, you wanted a female president? There ya go.

Thermodolia wrote:

Page wrote:
I'm eagerly anticipating if any Republican will dare a serious primary attempt against Trump.

I hear that John Kasich is probably going to run as an independent. He has some pretty scathing words for the republicans apparently saying that if the party can’t be fixed he won’t support it.

If Kasich actually wants to win, that's a dumb move. Best case scenario, he's gonna play the role of a minor right-wing spoiler who'll maybe get single digits out of the Republican vote. The Republican voting block is still overwhelmingly loyal to Trump. Never Trump Republicans are a small minority that gets significantly more media presence than it proportional.

Damn mouse making me double post

Damn already? It seems like we just finished up 2016!

Shofercia wrote:

Major-Tom wrote:
Klobuchar is immensely popular in Minnesota and has proven to be an effective Senator. Her electability aside, which I believe is high, she’d also likely be an effective and conciliatory President.

MN also leans Blue, I’m sure a hypothetical 2020 Special Election for her seat wouldn’t be particularly competitive.

Klobuchar would honestly be the best bet at this point. Yo Dems, you wanted a female president? There ya go.

But where does she stand on Medicare-for-All?

The Liberated Territories wrote:Damn already? It seems like we just finished up 2016!

Time is a flat circle

Liriena wrote:

Thermodolia wrote:I hear that John Kasich is probably going to run as an independent. He has some pretty scathing words for the republicans apparently saying that if the party can’t be fixed he won’t support it.

If Kasich actually wants to win, that's a dumb move. Best case scenario, he's gonna play the role of a minor right-wing spoiler who'll maybe get single digits out of the Republican vote. The Republican voting block is still overwhelmingly loyal to Trump. Never Trump Republicans are a small minority that gets significantly more media presence than it proportional.

I hope Kasich runs. Him being trounced by Trump will provide much amusement for everyone, and won't change anything, except for Kasich exposing himself for the laughing stock that he is, and then we can have the Al Gore and John Kasich turn Orange as a collectible medallion

Liriena wrote:

The Liberated Territories wrote:Damn already? It seems like we just finished up 2016!

Time is a flat circle

False. It is a cube...