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2020 US Presidential Election Megathread I- It Begins

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Out of the candidates who are in/have exploratory committees, who would you support?

President Donald Trump
15
28%
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
10
19%
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro
2
4%
Soon-to-be Former Congressman John Delaney
1
2%
WV State Sen. Richard Ojeda
3
6%
Sen. Kamala Harris
17
32%
Sen. Kristen Gillibrand
1
2%
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
4
8%
 
Total votes : 53

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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:18 am

Major-Tom wrote:
Ngelmish wrote:
Klobuchar is an interesting choice, and one that I'm actually considering. But on the whole, I'd rather not have a congress critter. Those seats are worth their weight in gold.


Klobuchar is immensely popular in Minnesota and has proven to be an effective Senator. Her electability aside, which I believe is high, she’d also likely be an effective and conciliatory President.

MN also leans Blue, I’m sure a hypothetical 2020 Special Election for her seat wouldn’t be particularly competitive.


I know that home state popularity is inevitably used as a metric of a candidate's overall viability, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about national trends. And I'm not hugely concerned about Klobuchar's seat, but I would be about, say, Brown's. It's also why I think potential contenders like Bullock and Hickenlooper should be running for the senate, not the White House. But yes, on the merits, Klobuchar is one of the few senators with enough policymaking experience that I'd expect her to be a solid president. Not a huge fan of congress members who mostly just fundraise and make speeches. The presidency can be, and should be, about policy. Also considering the mess Trump's made of the government superstructure, having someone with an executive background would be helpful.

Page wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Just hoping the DNC stays as neutral as possible for the primaries.


That's sort of like hoping for snow in hell, I'm certainly not getting my hopes up. I have a feeling the DNC will push for a candidate who "gets it", and by "gets it", I mean someone who gets that the President has to do the bidding of Goldman Sachs, big pharma, the oil lobby, and the military industrial complex.


Yeah, that sort of malevolent conspiracy is literally not how it happens and never has been.

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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:19 am

Corrian wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.


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The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp
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Postby The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:19 am

Telconi wrote:
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Your own happiness.

Everyone should be happy.


Presumably Zex is just acting to advance his own happiness...


Zex wrote:I have openly stated that compassion is weakness; along with being of the personal ideology that I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.



No his personal ideology is that he, in his own words, "I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.".

You can be happy with out doing such things.
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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:20 am

Corrian wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.


Obama was lightning in a bottle. Indiana's always been a conservative state.

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:21 am

Telconi wrote:
Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.


Michael Pence...

I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.
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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:23 am

The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Telconi wrote:
Presumably Zex is just acting to advance his own happiness...


Zex wrote:I have openly stated that compassion is weakness; along with being of the personal ideology that I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.



No his personal ideology is that he, in his own words, "I must spread fear, hatred, and anger wherever I go.".

You can be happy with out doing such things.


-shrug- Someone's going to be afraid, or hateful or angry as a result of just about everything anyone does.
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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:24 am

Corrian wrote:
Telconi wrote:
Michael Pence...

I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.


He's not well liked in political circles here. The state GOP was very happy with Mitch Daniels who was governor before Pence and basically assembled a Republican supermajority on the strength of not getting into fights about social policy, Pence turned out to be the opposite. Most state operatives won't say it on the record, but it's an open secret that they thought Pence was a disaster as governor.

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Postby Far Easter Republic » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:27 am

We all know some crazy pops out for the democrats, right?
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Telconi
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Postby Telconi » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:27 am

Ngelmish wrote:
Corrian wrote:I was told Pence wasn't even that popular in his state, but I have my doubts.


He's not well liked in political circles here. The state GOP was very happy with Mitch Daniels who was governor before Pence and basically assembled a Republican supermajority on the strength of not getting into fights about social policy, Pence turned out to be the opposite. Most state operatives won't say it on the record, but it's an open secret that they thought Pence was a disaster as governor.


National office tends to boost good feels. They may have disliked his culture warmongering, but 'Vice President Michael Pence, of Indiana' has a ring that people like, in Indiana.
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Postby Big Jim P » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:33 am

Ngelmish wrote:Yeah, this strikes me as premature in the sense that it'll be a lot more telling if everybody we expect to run jumps in over the next month, or if some surprising passes happen. It's also hard to game out candidates' strengths and weaknesses when the field hasn't filled out yet.

Of those currently declared? I like Liz Warren, but she's a paper tiger. Even on paper, there are obvious vulnerabilities and on the stump her style is going to come across as "condescending." Neither Castro nor Ojeda have any real business running for president, but they can if they want to.

Of those undeclared, Biden is the most interesting to watch. He may be more effective as a kingmaker than as a candidate, and I think he knows that. Of course, he wants to run for president, so there's that too. The party's smartest bet will be to go with a candidate who has some working executive experience, is relatively new, and can run credibly on ethics -- both in the primary and then as a seamless pivot to the general.


Dems? :rofl:

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Postby Page » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:33 am

I'm going to make some 2020 predictions, save a link to this thread and set a reminder to check it out again sometime in October 2020 to see how much I got right.


Prediction 1: Trump's campaign will make sure that Trump is often seen and photographed in church, but a facial expression of utter boredom and disdain will betray him.

Prediction 2: Melania will do her part for Trump's campaign, but her face will betray her too, her abject misery will be plain to see.

Prediction 3: Republicans past their prime (and usually no longer politically active) will often appear on CNN to denounce Trump's lack of civility, and the talking heads will hail these Republicans as moderate, reasonable American heroes.

Prediction 4: Corporate media will condemn Trump for not waging enough war. Some corporate Dem candidates will do this too. In essence, the so-called "liberal media" will take up the trigger happy neocon ideology of the Bush years to act as contrarians against Trump.

Prediction 5: If Biden runs, Fox News will play the "he's too old" card. If Sanders runs, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC will all play the "he's too old" card, but CNN and MSNBC won't use it against Biden.

Prediction 6: The New York Times, CNN, and others will denounce Medicare For All as too expensive and too radical, and will accuse the Democrats running on Medicare For All of being so radical that they'll cause Trump to be reelected.

Prediction 7: Some Democrat candidates will not support Medicare For All, but they will instead throw around the term "universal access [to healthcare]." And if one of the "universal access" Dems becomes the nominee, Trump's odds of winning reelection will greatly improve.

Prediction 8: Whether Sanders runs or not, social media will be contaminated by insufferable people who blame Sanders for Trump because he dared to contest Clinton's coronation. If he does run, you'll hear this on cable news, and the establishment will bring back the term "Bernie Bros" as a dog whistle for falsely accusing Bernie's young supporters of being sexist. And if they implement this strategy, you will not see any young women Bernie supporters on the news when they're covering his campaign.

Prediction 9: The right-wing media will relentlessly perpetuate their Big Lie that Elizabeth Warren used Native American ancestry to take advantage of affirmative action, despite the fact that never happened.

Prediction 10: Corey Booker will run on a populist left platform, but if elected he will break well over half the promises he will make.
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Outer Sparta
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Postby Outer Sparta » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:46 am

Corrian wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Minnesota is a lean blue state and the rest of the Midwest is a tossup, except for Indiana (safe red), Illinois (safe blue) and Ohio (lean red).

Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:57 am

Page wrote:I'm going to make some 2020 predictions, save a link to this thread and set a reminder to check it out again sometime in October 2020 to see how much I got right.


Prediction 1: Trump's campaign will make sure that Trump is often seen and photographed in church, but a facial expression of utter boredom and disdain will betray him.

Prediction 2: Melania will do her part for Trump's campaign, but her face will betray her too, her abject misery will be plain to see.

Prediction 3: Republicans past their prime (and usually no longer politically active) will often appear on CNN to denounce Trump's lack of civility, and the talking heads will hail these Republicans as moderate, reasonable American heroes.

Prediction 4: Corporate media will condemn Trump for not waging enough war. Some corporate Dem candidates will do this too. In essence, the so-called "liberal media" will take up the trigger happy neocon ideology of the Bush years to act as contrarians against Trump.

Prediction 5: If Biden runs, Fox News will play the "he's too old" card. If Sanders runs, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC will all play the "he's too old" card, but CNN and MSNBC won't use it against Biden.

Prediction 6: The New York Times, CNN, and others will denounce Medicare For All as too expensive and too radical, and will accuse the Democrats running on Medicare For All of being so radical that they'll cause Trump to be reelected.

Prediction 7: Some Democrat candidates will not support Medicare For All, but they will instead throw around the term "universal access [to healthcare]." And if one of the "universal access" Dems becomes the nominee, Trump's odds of winning reelection will greatly improve.

Prediction 8: Whether Sanders runs or not, social media will be contaminated by insufferable people who blame Sanders for Trump because he dared to contest Clinton's coronation. If he does run, you'll hear this on cable news, and the establishment will bring back the term "Bernie Bros" as a dog whistle for falsely accusing Bernie's young supporters of being sexist. And if they implement this strategy, you will not see any young women Bernie supporters on the news when they're covering his campaign.

Prediction 9: The right-wing media will relentlessly perpetuate their Big Lie that Elizabeth Warren used Native American ancestry to take advantage of affirmative action, despite the fact that never happened.

Prediction 10: Corey Booker will run on a populist left platform, but if elected he will break well over half the promises he will make.


10 isnt so much a prediction as a statement of fact. He's shown himself as a more center-corporate Dem who's attempting to court the Progressive left in recent months by co-opting some of their platform and approving other parts of it.

At the very least he's willing to hear them out and would have to listen to them to a degree for the sake of appearances. He might be a pretty decent compromise between the two wings of the Democratic Party. Conversely he could be universally reviled.

We'll see.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:58 am

Outer Sparta wrote:
Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.


My understanding was always that Ohio is the truest swing state and does whatever the fuck it wants.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:59 am

Outer Sparta wrote:
Corrian wrote:Ohio seems to have shifted to more red recently. There was a possibility of a Democratic governor, though I wasn't surprised a Republican won with Kasich' popularity. But it seems to be more lean Republican than the tossup it used to be. I feel like Indiana has shifted to a solid red state recently for some reason. I'm not quite sure why, but it has definitely had a major shift from when Obama won it.

Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:46 pm

Corrian wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:Now that I think about it, did Democrats really had a hold on Ohio in the first place? Probably not.

Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.

Since 1960 Republicans have won Ohio a total of 9 times while the democrats have won it a total of 6 times. The longest republican streak was from 1980-1988
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Postby Dresderstan » Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:49 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Corrian wrote:Obama won it twice, but besides that, I'm not really sure.

Since 1960 Republicans have won Ohio a total of 9 times while the democrats have won it a total of 6 times. The longest republican streak was from 1980-1988

And from 1964 onwards whoever won Ohio has won the presidency, so I'm pretty confident whoever wins Ohio will win the presidency. But that's getting ahead of myself.
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Postby Liriena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:39 pm

Oh no... not again.. D:

Anyway, if Warren ends up being the nominee, that's pretty good. I'd still prefer Sanders, despite my continuing concerns over that wonderful man's advanced age, but Warren is the next best thing if you're on the left and you prefer pragmatism, reformism or democratic socialism over revolutionary leftism. She's made some dumb decisions here and there (namely, playing into Trump's stupid hands with the whole DNA testing to prove she has native American heritage), but she's got a long, extensive and commendable record of standing up to the plutocrats in DC and in Wall Street.
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Postby Shofercia » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:44 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
Ngelmish wrote:
Klobuchar is an interesting choice, and one that I'm actually considering. But on the whole, I'd rather not have a congress critter. Those seats are worth their weight in gold.


Klobuchar is immensely popular in Minnesota and has proven to be an effective Senator. Her electability aside, which I believe is high, she’d also likely be an effective and conciliatory President.

MN also leans Blue, I’m sure a hypothetical 2020 Special Election for her seat wouldn’t be particularly competitive.


Klobuchar would honestly be the best bet at this point. Yo Dems, you wanted a female president? There ya go.
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Postby Liriena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:44 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Page wrote:
I'm eagerly anticipating if any Republican will dare a serious primary attempt against Trump.

I hear that John Kasich is probably going to run as an independent. He has some pretty scathing words for the republicans apparently saying that if the party can’t be fixed he won’t support it.

If Kasich actually wants to win, that's a dumb move. Best case scenario, he's gonna play the role of a minor right-wing spoiler who'll maybe get single digits out of the Republican vote. The Republican voting block is still overwhelmingly loyal to Trump. Never Trump Republicans are a small minority that gets significantly more media presence than it proportional.
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Postby Liriena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:44 pm

Damn mouse making me double post
Last edited by Liriena on Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Liberated Territories
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Postby The Liberated Territories » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:44 pm

Damn already? It seems like we just finished up 2016!
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Postby Liriena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:45 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:
Klobuchar is immensely popular in Minnesota and has proven to be an effective Senator. Her electability aside, which I believe is high, she’d also likely be an effective and conciliatory President.

MN also leans Blue, I’m sure a hypothetical 2020 Special Election for her seat wouldn’t be particularly competitive.


Klobuchar would honestly be the best bet at this point. Yo Dems, you wanted a female president? There ya go.

But where does she stand on Medicare-for-All?
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Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92
For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism
Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism,
cynicism


⚧Copy and paste this in your sig
if you passed biology and know
gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧

I disown most of my previous posts

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Liriena
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 52245
Founded: Nov 19, 2010
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Liriena » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:46 pm

The Liberated Territories wrote:Damn already? It seems like we just finished up 2016!

Time is a flat circle
The Fabulous Pope of NS


I am:
A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist
An aspiring writer and journalist
Political compass stuff:
Economic Left/Right: -8.13
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92
For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism
Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism,
cynicism


⚧Copy and paste this in your sig
if you passed biology and know
gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧

I disown most of my previous posts

User avatar
Shofercia
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 27748
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:46 pm

Liriena wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:I hear that John Kasich is probably going to run as an independent. He has some pretty scathing words for the republicans apparently saying that if the party can’t be fixed he won’t support it.

If Kasich actually wants to win, that's a dumb move. Best case scenario, he's gonna play the role of a minor right-wing spoiler who'll maybe get single digits out of the Republican vote. The Republican voting block is still overwhelmingly loyal to Trump. Never Trump Republicans are a small minority that gets significantly more media presence than it proportional.


I hope Kasich runs. Him being trounced by Trump will provide much amusement for everyone, and won't change anything, except for Kasich exposing himself for the laughing stock that he is, and then we can have the Al Gore and John Kasich turn Orange as a collectible medallion :P
Ukraine - stop bombing innocent people! Pricks who burn other people alive should be punished.
WADA/IPC/IOC are begging Russia to form a strategic alliance with China. Perhaps it's time.
Come, learn about Russian Culture! Bring Vodka and Ushanka. Interested in Slavic Culture? Fill this out.
If we tell the radical Republicans that there's proof that Global Warming doesn't exist in Death Valley, and the radical Democrats that there's proof of Russian Collusion there, would we have a better America?

(North) Kosovo is (a de facto part of) Serbia and Crimea is (a de facto part of) Russia! DonBass is De Facto Independent! Stand with NovoRossiya!
Tecumseh was a Real American

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