2019-2020 US Elections Megathread I- It Begins

[Zurkerx]

Bernie is leading among the Democratic candidates in a new Emerson poll.
https://gritpost.com/bernie-sanders-lea ... onal-poll/

Also, Bernie did a town hall on Fox News and pretty much dominated there.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/ ... gy-1277009


If Bernie gets the nomination, which seems increasingly likely to me, he'll defeat Trump easily.

I'm really not sure Bernie would be a sure fire win tbh

Honestly I think he might actually be one of the weaker potential candidates nowadays cuz he doesn't have that minority draw that Dem candidates need to run their numbers up and relying on poaching Trump voters in the Rust Belt, while possible, is a really sketchy game plan.

I have to agree, they need to find someone with Rust Belt appeal; ideally someone from the Rust Belt. Sanders I don't think has the national appeal, especially since Trump has slapped that "socialist" label on him, which can turn off moderate Democrats. Of course, nominated someone too moderate (maybe with the exception of Biden) and the Progressives may not turn out. It's a delicate balance Democrats have to find as their party is fractured (so is the Republicans but there's is less obvious, although I think Trump can make that more apparent if he decides to spite the party).

[Page]

No he won't.

Especially if he keeps flying the socialist banner about (And even if he does win, Dems are going to lose the House again because of it).

There isn't a single socialist candidate in the 2020 race. Bernie can call himself a demsoc all he wants, but his policies are just progressive liberalism and welfare capitalism.

There are socialist candidates running for President, they're just not Democrats and they won't win. While I do support revolution and find social democracy to be an insufficient attempt to preserve a rotting system, there are many people whose lot in life will be improved if the likes of Trump are replaced with the likes of Sanders. For that reason, I would still like to see Bernie Sanders victorious despite the fact that what he offers is not nearly close to what we deserve.

[Zurkerx]

^
Trump is going to win. It's a matter of y'all not being surprised.

There are several indicators (that are valuable) that indicate Trump's re-election won't be all that much easier. His approvals in every state are down and he only won in the first place due to a couple thousand votes across three states.

Besides the Ohio and Iowa, you would be correct, especially for Michigan. His chances of retaking Pennsylvania and Michigan is not that great. However, he seems to have Ohio and Iowa locked up at the moment given he won those States by a decent margin. At the end of the day, if the Democrats don't nominate someone that can bring over disgruntle Trump voters in those States, he's set to win again by a slim margin.

[San Lumen]

There are several indicators (that are valuable) that indicate Trump's re-election won't be all that much easier. His approvals in every state are down and he only won in the first place due to a couple thousand votes across three states.

Besides the Ohio and Iowa, you would be correct, especially for Michigan. His chances of retaking Pennsylvania and Michigan is not that great. However, he seems to have Ohio and Iowa locked up at the moment given he won those States by a decent margin. At the end of the day, if the Democrats don't nominate someone that can bring over disgruntle Trump voters in those States, he's set to win again by a slim margin.

Lets also not forget Wisconsin. If Dane and Milwaukee counties come out in large numbers he loses the state by a slim margin,. That's how Scott Walker lost.

[Page]

I find it quite amazing how many people, most of them conservatives but some liberals too, are pushing this narrative that only a centrist Democrat has a chance against Trump and that the further "left" candidates would fail. When given the choice between Republican or Republican Lite, voters will choose the Republican, or just stay home.

Hillary Clinton didn't lose in her "firewall" states because she was too far left. Quite the opposite. She lost because she didn't offer the people anything of substance. The people who are rationing medicine and checking the status of a GoFundMe hoping they'll raise enough money to literally avoid dying didn't vote for Hillary because she thought Obamacare was enough and that single payer isn't necessary. Because those people realize neither Trump nor Clinton would do anything about the travesty of the American health care system. She lost because the people who lost their jobs to outsourcing realized she wasn't going to do a damn thing about it while Trump played populist - and although Trump's a liar and those people working for employers like Carrier had their jobs outsourced anyway, Hillary didn't even bother with the issue, she didn't even go to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. She lost because people who remember their homes being foreclosed upon found out she gave paid speeches absolving the vile usurers of the mortgage industry and blamed the Great Recession on the victims of predatory lending. She lost because she supported the endless wars in countries that never attacked us cost thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars, while a great majority of Americans no longer want to spill blood and treasure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, and Libya. Don't forget Libya! She was convinced it was a great accomplishment to have overthrown Gaddafi. Now Libya is in a state of perpetual civil war, Islamist extremists operate with impunity, and slaves are sold in open markets.

If the nominee in 2020 makes a real commitment to single payer, a living wage, rebuilding infrastructure, creating renewable energy, absolving student loan debt, free college, and ending the wars, that nominee will win. If the nominee is a neoliberal centrist who thinks "America is already great", then say hello to 4 more years of spray tan stains on the White House furniture.

[United States of Devonta]

I find it quite amazing how many people, most of them conservatives but some liberals too, are pushing this narrative that only a centrist Democrat has a chance against Trump and that the further "left" candidates would fail. When given the choice between Republican or Republican Lite, voters will choose the Republican, or just stay home.

Hillary Clinton didn't lose in her "firewall" states because she was too far left. Quite the opposite. She lost because she didn't offer the people anything of substance. The people who are rationing medicine and checking the status of a GoFundMe hoping they'll raise enough money to literally avoid dying didn't vote for Hillary because she thought Obamacare was enough and that single payer isn't necessary. Because those people realize neither Trump nor Clinton would do anything about the travesty of the American health care system. She lost because the people who lost their jobs to outsourcing realized she wasn't going to do a damn thing about it while Trump played populist - and although Trump's a liar and those people working for employers like Carrier had their jobs outsourced anyway, Hillary didn't even bother with the issue, she didn't even go to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. She lost because people who remember their homes being foreclosed upon found out she gave paid speeches absolving the vile usurers of the mortgage industry and blamed the Great Recession on the victims of predatory lending. She lost because she supported the endless wars in countries that never attacked us cost thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars, while a great majority of Americans no longer want to spill blood and treasure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, and Libya. Don't forget Libya! She was convinced it was a great accomplishment to have overthrown Gaddafi. Now Libya is in a state of perpetual civil war, Islamist extremists operate with impunity, and slaves are sold in open markets.

If the nominee in 2020 makes a real commitment to single payer, a living wage, rebuilding infrastructure, creating renewable energy, absolving student loan debt, free college, and ending the wars, that nominee will win. If the nominee is a neoliberal centrist who thinks "America is already great", then say hello to 4 more years of spray tan stains on the White House furniture.

"BeRNie WiLl AlLinAtE MoDEraTeS AnD REpBliCAnS"

I just watch him own the stage in a FOX NEWS townhall yesterday. He did the same in red West Virgnia in 2016 and his last Fox townhall.

[Broader Confederate States]

"BeRNie WiLl AlLinAtE MoDEraTeS AnD REpBliCAnS"

I just watch him own the stage in a FOX NEWS townhall yesterday. He did the same in red West Virgnia in 2016 and his last Fox townhall.

five months, dude

[Impaled Nazarene]

And they all said there was no way Hillary could lose to this batshit Trump guy with no tact.

"Polls said Hillary would win so all polls are wrong everywhere forever."

Everybody drink.

I wasn't referring to polls alone so spit the cheap booze out. Political scientists, life long politicians, the media, the average voter, etc.
So please hop off your high horse and contribute to discussion.

If Bernie gets the nomination, which seems increasingly likely to me, he'll defeat Trump easily.

The Establishment Dems would sooner bend their knee to Ulfric Stormcloak Trump than let Sanders win the primary.

[West Leas Oros 2]

I am legitimately happy Yang is ranked 3rd on the poll

[Valrifell]

"Polls said Hillary would win so all polls are wrong everywhere forever."

Everybody drink.

I wasn't referring to polls alone so spit the cheap booze out. Political scientists, life long politicians, the media, the average voter, etc.
So please hop off your high horse and contribute to discussion.

If Bernie gets the nomination, which seems increasingly likely to me, he'll defeat Trump easily.

The Establishment Dems would sooner bend their knee to Ulfric Stormcloak Trump than let Sanders win the primary.

They're not stupid, you realize?

Like I get it's this whole meme to paint Sanders as the glorious Revolutionary sticking it to the man and the nebulously-defined establishment democrats are working heartily to sabotage him at every turn, but that's never quite been the case. They altered the rules of their own primary to appease his fans, so if he wins the primary I think they'd be more than content to throw their weight behind him.

[Impaled Nazarene]

I wasn't referring to polls alone so spit the cheap booze out. Political scientists, life long politicians, the media, the average voter, etc.
So please hop off your high horse and contribute to discussion.


The Establishment Dems would sooner bend their knee to Ulfric Stormcloak Trump than let Sanders win the primary.

They're not stupid, you realize?

Oh no they are, trust me I went to the Cynic's School For Shitty Life Lessons And Lowered Expectations. I majored in Congress And Its Idiots.

[Valrifell]

They're not stupid, you realize?

trust me

no

[The Lone Alliance]

"BeRNie WiLl AlLinAtE MoDEraTeS AnD REpBliCAnS"

I just watch him own the stage in a FOX NEWS townhall yesterday. He did the same in red West Virgnia in 2016 and his last Fox townhall.

Bernie did do good in his townhall yesterday, he stuck to his guns, dodged a lot of the gotcha questions and, and this is what surprised me the most, Fox news didn't stack the crowd full of people who hated him.

[Ngelmish]

I find it quite amazing how many people, most of them conservatives but some liberals too, are pushing this narrative that only a centrist Democrat has a chance against Trump and that the further "left" candidates would fail. When given the choice between Republican or Republican Lite, voters will choose the Republican, or just stay home.

Hillary Clinton didn't lose in her "firewall" states because she was too far left. Quite the opposite. She lost because she didn't offer the people anything of substance. The people who are rationing medicine and checking the status of a GoFundMe hoping they'll raise enough money to literally avoid dying didn't vote for Hillary because she thought Obamacare was enough and that single payer isn't necessary. Because those people realize neither Trump nor Clinton would do anything about the travesty of the American health care system. She lost because the people who lost their jobs to outsourcing realized she wasn't going to do a damn thing about it while Trump played populist - and although Trump's a liar and those people working for employers like Carrier had their jobs outsourced anyway, Hillary didn't even bother with the issue, she didn't even go to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. She lost because people who remember their homes being foreclosed upon found out she gave paid speeches absolving the vile usurers of the mortgage industry and blamed the Great Recession on the victims of predatory lending. She lost because she supported the endless wars in countries that never attacked us cost thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars, while a great majority of Americans no longer want to spill blood and treasure in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, and Libya. Don't forget Libya! She was convinced it was a great accomplishment to have overthrown Gaddafi. Now Libya is in a state of perpetual civil war, Islamist extremists operate with impunity, and slaves are sold in open markets.

If the nominee in 2020 makes a real commitment to single payer, a living wage, rebuilding infrastructure, creating renewable energy, absolving student loan debt, free college, and ending the wars, that nominee will win. If the nominee is a neoliberal centrist who thinks "America is already great", then say hello to 4 more years of spray tan stains on the White House furniture.

You do realize that your personal disagreements with the substance of what Clinton offered is literally the opposite of Clinton offering no substance?

I understand that the point of this canard is politics, and that politically you're incentivized to deploy hyperbole, but there's a point at which blatant dishonesty runs counter to the premise of offering ethical politics.

[Talvezout]

With Sanders v. Trump, here's some polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

*dodges "polling is wrong because Hillary" statements*

In all honesty, seeing how strong Sanders and Buttegieg are doing is making me a little more confident that they could potentially do well in the general election.

Maybe a Sanders/Buttegieg or Sanders/Abrams ticket?

[San Lumen]

With Sanders v. Trump, here's some polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

*dodges "polling is wrong because Hillary" statements*

In all honesty, seeing how strong Sanders and Buttegieg are doing is making me a little more confident that they could potentially do well in the general election.

Maybe a Sanders/Buttegieg or Sanders/Abrams ticket?

polling this far out is meaningless

[Valrifell]

With Sanders v. Trump, here's some polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

*dodges "polling is wrong because Hillary" statements*

In all honesty, seeing how strong Sanders and Buttegieg are doing is making me a little more confident that they could potentially do well in the general election.

Maybe a Sanders/Buttegieg or Sanders/Abrams ticket?

polling this far out is meaningless

Stop being such a buzzkill, my guy.

[Impaled Nazarene]

With Sanders v. Trump, here's some polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

*dodges "polling is wrong because Hillary" statements*

In all honesty, seeing how strong Sanders and Buttegieg are doing is making me a little more confident that they could potentially do well in the general election.

Maybe a Sanders/Buttegieg or Sanders/Abrams ticket?

I'd rather Buttigieg be in the unemployment line.

[Valrifell]

With Sanders v. Trump, here's some polling:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6250.html

*dodges "polling is wrong because Hillary" statements*

In all honesty, seeing how strong Sanders and Buttegieg are doing is making me a little more confident that they could potentially do well in the general election.

Maybe a Sanders/Buttegieg or Sanders/Abrams ticket?

I'd rather Buttigieg be in the unemployment line.

But why

[Impaled Nazarene]

I'd rather Buttigieg be in the unemployment line.

But why

Because he's a racist.

[Valrifell]

But why

Because he's a racist.

But how

[Vassenor]

But why

Because he's a racist.

Let's see some examples then.

[Impaled Nazarene]

Because he's a racist.

But how

"But he rebuilt South Bend"
At the expense of the minority populations.

A black Police Chief revealed racism and corruption in the SBPD. Buttigieg threw him under the bus.

Allows gentrification to go ham across the city.

Has done nothing to meaningfully help the black communities in South Bend.

Actually thinks he can use his sexuality to make people think he's not bigoted. Gay people can't be racist you know?

Source: Living in South Bend, Working with politicians in South Bend, being a campaign worker in South Bend, having good friends who have been harmed by Buttigieg's policies.

[Valrifell]

But how

"But he rebuilt South Bend"
At the expense of the minority populations.

A black Police Chief revealed racism and corruption in the SBPD. Buttigieg threw him under the bus.

Allows gentrification to go ham across the city.

Has done nothing to meaningfully help the black communities in South Bend.

Actually thinks he can use his sexuality to make people think he's not bigoted. Gay people can't be racist you know?

The concerns about gentrification were heard and modifications were made to the original program to give homeowners more grants to repair homes instead of just tearing them down.

He's only been in office for eight years in a city with more than enough available land to go around. Property prices are still dirt cheap and we simply won't know the possible gentrification of neighborhoods for another few years. It's not that when they redid their downtown area they removed the poor, nobody was there to begin with.

The Police Chief issue was a sticky situation, did he have to fire the Police Chief? Eh, I don't know. Nobody really knows what was discovered since nobody has listened to the tapes except for the demoted police chief, this was because they were made illegally and Buttigieg wanted to get clearance to release them as to not risk legal challenges. Which is also why he settled with all parties involved.

He listened to the black community as I mentioned before, I don't know if he's done anything more specific. I do know he's at least talked about intentionally aiding black communities in the future.

He flat out never said that.

[Valrifell]

Now I look like an asshole because you didn't include your edit in the original post.