2019-2020 US Elections Megathread I- It Begins

[San Lumen]

Every vote matters.

Except for those third party voters. Oh and those who vote republican. Those guys can go to hell. /s

Never said that

[Tobleste]

I think what we're finding is that this bogeyman is not as effective as it once was.

They're not actually socialist either, though AOC is pretty close. I think socialism would stay a bogeyman if people stopped equating lukewarm social democracy with kill-the-capitalists nationalize-the-industry socialism.

That's the thing. No politician in the US has made a serious case for real socialism afaik. Everything that's been suggested by AOC, Warren and Sanders would be centre left in most capitalist countries. To republicans, centre left is socialist.

[Thermodolia]

Except for those third party voters. Oh and those who vote republican. Those guys can go to hell. /s

Never said that

You expect me to believe you? You’ve said time and time again that voting third party is a waste

[Washington Resistance Army]

Except for those third party voters. Oh and those who vote republican. Those guys can go to hell. /s

Never said that

Literally yesterday you were ranting and raving about how third parties put Trump in office.

[Cannot think of a name]

Never said that

You expect me to believe you? You’ve said time and time again that voting third party is a waste

Oh, cool...are we doing this again? Slow news day?

[Thermodolia]

Never said that

Literally yesterday you were ranting and raving about how third parties put Trump in office.

Short term memory loss is real

[San Lumen]

Never said that

You expect me to believe you? You’ve said time and time again that voting third party is a waste

I never said those who vote Republican are bad.

[South Odreria]

Question it may have already been answered already but who else besides trump on the Republicans side has launched an exploratory committee or is strongly considering launching one for 2020?

Dick Cheney

[Shrillland]

I live in Tennessee, there's no reason for me to vote because not matter who I vote for, the GOP will win. FPTP sucks. Might vote in the primary for Tulsi Gabbard.

I live in Illinois, there's no point in me voting because the Democrats will win every time.

Oh, come now. I live in Illinois too, and Democrats never win here.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Question it may have already been answered already but who else besides trump on the Republicans side has launched an exploratory committee or is strongly considering launching one for 2020?

Dick Cheney

That would actually be amazing.

[Major-Tom]

Because she is an extremist who supports a quasi-fascist Hindu nationalist government in India and has ties to anti-Semites.

Ah, those old canards again.

I find it strange that views on Gabbard are so black and white here. It's either, "she's the angel of progressivism who will usher in real change" or "she's having an affair with Modi/Hitler and wants to return America to the dark ages."

Is there no room for nuance? Seriously, she has some problematic stances but is neither a saint nor bogeyman.

[South Odreria]

Ah, those old canards again.

I find it strange that views on Gabbard are so black and white here. It's either, "she's the angel of progressivism who will usher in real change" or "she's having an affair with Modi/Hitler and wants to return America to the dark ages."

Is there no room for nuance? Seriously, she has some problematic stances but is neither a saint nor bogeyman.

Murder is a lot wrong, not a little wrong. Whether murder is acceptable is kind of a black and white question. Some people are just bad dudes.

[Shofercia]

Question it may have already been answered already but who else besides trump on the Republicans side has launched an exploratory committee or is strongly considering launching one for 2020?

Corker, Hogan, and Kasich, aka the Three Stooges of the GOP. Weld might run as a Libertarian, or a Republican, his announcement is in two days. Also, Schultz of Starbucks might run in the Libertarian Primary, instead of running as an independent.

Meanwhile the Democratic field is also widening. Should be a fun primary, but right now, Trump is, oddly, favored to win. The Keys:

Republicans lost the Midterms (point Dems)
Party rallying behind Trump (point Reps)
Incumbency Privilege (point Reps)
Third Party Run (no idea how this'll play out)
Short Term Economy (TBD)
Long Term Economy (point Reps, but it could change)
Policy Change (point Reps - there was a major change)
Social Unrest (could go either way due to the EC vs Popular Vote)
Scandal (take your pick - point Dems)
Foreign Policy Success (two points for Reps, as long as Trump doesn't start a war, and gets NK to chill)
Incumbent Charisma (Trump rallies the vote - point Reps)
Challenger Charisma (TBD)

Total:
Reps: 7 need just 1 more
Dems: 2 need need all of the misc points
Misc: 4

Swing States:
West: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado (26 EVs)
Northeast: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa (62 EVs)
Others: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine, that one place in Nebraska (24 EVs)
Oh fuck, oh no, shit, fuck, shit: Florida (It's Florida, want to predict it? Toss a coin, bitch) (29 EVs)

Democrat Coalition: (200 EVs)
West Coast: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii (78 EVs)
New England & Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Virginia (97 EVs)
Others: New Mexico, Illinois (25 EVs)

Republican Coalition:
Midwest: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, most of Nebraska (35 EVs)
South: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee (110 EVs)
Mideast: Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia (52 EVs)

Current race:
Lean Dem: Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota (25 EVs)
Lean Rep: Iowa, North Carolina, most of Maine, that one Nebraska place (25 EVs)

Possible scenario:
Dems take Arizona, New Hampshire, part of Maine (17 EVs)
Reps take Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (46 EVs)
Florida is the decider!

Another possible scenario is where there's a tie, and it goes to Congress, where Republicans hold more states and Trump wins. This means that the Democrats must win either Pennsylvania or Florida.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Another possible scenario is where there's a tie, and it goes to Congress, where Republicans hold more states and Trump wins. This means that the Democrats must win either Pennsylvania or Florida.

Speaking of Pennsylvania

Ohio, Pennsylvania and, Wisconsin, states that Trump won, now have a negative approval rating of him now.

And according to that source Fl has a net dislike of him.

While apparently according to gallup, Trump's approval rating went back up to 44% post shutdown, his approval rating is still below 50% and his disapproval rating is still above 50%.

Even fox news has him at 52% disapproval.

That's one point I think you missed, his massive disapproval rating,

[South Odreria]

Why is Iowa in the northeast but New Hampshire isn't?

[Ayytaly]

Yeah, I mean...look how poorly it went when they ran women and people of color in 2018...

^ This.

Also, nice example of how while many conservatives love to complain about identity politics, they themselves are are usually the ones pushing an identity-driven agenda. If you support Trump because you're worried about the country getting more racially diverse, or more feminist, or more respectful of LGBTQ rights, that' support is a form of identity politics plain and simple.

It's no coincidence that while the Dems are now mainly talking about health care and the Green New Deal, Republicans are obsessing over immigration: Republicans tend to be at least as obsessed with identity issues as Democrats, even if they present it as a leftist thing. That right wing hypocrisy was majestically demonstrated by by Danica Roem, the transwoman who got into the Virginia legislature in 2017; during the election, while her Republican opponent's campaign kept bringing up her gender, she herself was consistently centering infrastructure that badly needed to be updated, and that got her elected.

Problem is, many minorities are conservative in their own right. Gays, weed, and abortion are cardinal sins in their eyes. I've said before that if the Dems want to win, they need to appeal half of the boomers and half of the conservative non-WASP population.

[Shofercia]

Another possible scenario is where there's a tie, and it goes to Congress, where Republicans hold more states and Trump wins. This means that the Democrats must win either Pennsylvania or Florida.

Speaking of Pennsylvania

Ohio, Pennsylvania and, Wisconsin, states that Trump won, now have a negative approval rating of him now.

And according to that source Fl has a net dislike of him.

While apparently according to gallup, Trump's approval rating went back up to 44% post shutdown, his approval rating is still below 50% and his disapproval rating is still above 50%.

Even fox news has him at 52% disapproval.

That's one point I think you missed, his massive disapproval rating,

Florida's unpredictable, and as far as Pennsylvania's concerned - that was one of the points I was trying to raise earlier in the thread, about Klobuchar. Dems need challenger charisma, a bad short term economy, and for Trump to fail to deal with the Opioid Crisis. I also wouldn't call a single digit approval-disapproval gap as "massive disapproval" - but if his policies tackle the Opioid Crisis, if the Democrats nominate someone who won't be charismatic for the mideast, and if the short term economy's good, Trump wins a second term.

Why is Iowa in the northeast but New Hampshire isn't?

Political Geography isn't the same as actual geography, i.e. Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. That said, I should've used the term mideast, but New Hampshire has always been considered a part of the New England States, rather than the Rust Belt States.

[Valrifell]

^ This.

Also, nice example of how while many conservatives love to complain about identity politics, they themselves are are usually the ones pushing an identity-driven agenda. If you support Trump because you're worried about the country getting more racially diverse, or more feminist, or more respectful of LGBTQ rights, that' support is a form of identity politics plain and simple.

It's no coincidence that while the Dems are now mainly talking about health care and the Green New Deal, Republicans are obsessing over immigration: Republicans tend to be at least as obsessed with identity issues as Democrats, even if they present it as a leftist thing. That right wing hypocrisy was majestically demonstrated by by Danica Roem, the transwoman who got into the Virginia legislature in 2017; during the election, while her Republican opponent's campaign kept bringing up her gender, she herself was consistently centering infrastructure that badly needed to be updated, and that got her elected.

Problem is, many minorities are conservative in their own right. Gays, weed, and abortion are cardinal sins in their eyes. I've said before that if the Dems want to win, they need to appeal half of the boomers and half of the conservative non-WASP population.

Oh good, another post for my "Democrats NEED to do X or else...!" collection

[South Odreria]

So Schumer is recruiting Beto to run for Senate again. Imo you should prove you're a winner before you do the president thing, and ousting Cornyn would be a certifiable winner move.

[Western Vale Confederacy]

Problem is, many minorities are conservative in their own right. Gays, weed, and abortion are cardinal sins in their eyes. I've said before that if the Dems want to win, they need to appeal half of the boomers and half of the conservative non-WASP population.

Oh good, another post for my "Democrats NEED to do X or else...!" collection

Y’know, you can’t just solely rely on minorities to catapult yourself to victory.

That’s why they are, y’know, minorities.

[San Lumen]

So Schumer is recruiting Beto to run for Senate again. Imo you should prove you're a winner before you do the president thing, and ousting Cornyn would be a certifiable winner move.

I welcome this. He can help the Texas Democrats rebuild even further maybe even flip the legislature. If they gain a few more seats in the Dallas and Houston area they could take one or both chambers

[Conserative Morality]

I find it strange that views on Gabbard are so black and white here. It's either, "she's the angel of progressivism who will usher in real change" or "she's having an affair with Modi/Hitler and wants to return America to the dark ages."

Is there no room for nuance? Seriously, she has some problematic stances but is neither a saint nor bogeyman.

tbqh she's too dovish for my tastes, and I don't enjoy her Chamberlaining it up with Assad. I respect why she's dovish, but I still don't like it or agree with it. I think she's too hostile towards Iran and too conciliatory towards Israel. As a free trade advocate, I am necessarily opposed to some of her more... insular stances on issues of international economics.

BUT

I do still believe she's our best choice, for the party and, more importantly, for the nation, bar Bernie suddenly shedding twenty years of age, or Obama/Biden Term 3: Drone Harder.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Speaking of Pennsylvania



And according to that source Fl has a net dislike of him.

While apparently according to gallup, Trump's approval rating went back up to 44% post shutdown, his approval rating is still below 50% and his disapproval rating is still above 50%.

Even fox news has him at 52% disapproval.

That's one point I think you missed, his massive disapproval rating,

Florida's unpredictable, and as far as Pennsylvania's concerned - that was one of the points I was trying to raise earlier in the thread, about Klobuchar. Dems need challenger charisma, a bad short term economy, and for Trump to fail to deal with the Opioid Crisis. I also wouldn't call a single digit approval-disapproval gap as "massive disapproval" - but if his policies tackle the Opioid Crisis, if the Democrats nominate someone who won't be charismatic for the mideast, and if the short term economy's good, Trump wins a second term.

Why is Iowa in the northeast but New Hampshire isn't?

Political Geography isn't the same as actual geography, i.e. Turkey being a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. That said, I should've used the term mideast, but New Hampshire has always been considered a part of the New England States, rather than the Rust Belt States.

It kinda is massive tho. Its a sold half the usa that hates Trump.

[Mystic Warriors]

Oh good, another post for my "Democrats NEED to do X or else...!" collection

Y’know, you can’t just solely rely on minorities to catapult yourself to victory.

That’s why they are, y’know, minorities.

http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/05/i ... g-victory/

Obama won 43% of the White vote in 2008

https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012

And 39% in 2012

So yeah, Democrats really can.

[Thermodolia]

Question it may have already been answered already but who else besides trump on the Republicans side has launched an exploratory committee or is strongly considering launching one for 2020?

Corker, Hogan, and Kasich, aka the Three Stooges of the GOP. Weld might run as a Libertarian, or a Republican, his announcement is in two days. Also, Schultz of Starbucks might run in the Libertarian Primary, instead of running as an independent.

Meanwhile the Democratic field is also widening. Should be a fun primary, but right now, Trump is, oddly, favored to win. The Keys:

Republicans lost the Midterms (point Dems)
Party rallying behind Trump (point Reps)
Incumbency Privilege (point Reps)
Third Party Run (no idea how this'll play out)
Short Term Economy (TBD)
Long Term Economy (point Reps, but it could change)
Policy Change (point Reps - there was a major change)
Social Unrest (could go either way due to the EC vs Popular Vote)
Scandal (take your pick - point Dems)
Foreign Policy Success (two points for Reps, as long as Trump doesn't start a war, and gets NK to chill)
Incumbent Charisma (Trump rallies the vote - point Reps)
Challenger Charisma (TBD)

Total:
Reps: 7 need just 1 more
Dems: 2 need need all of the misc points
Misc: 4

Swing States:
West: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado (26 EVs)
Northeast: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa (62 EVs)
Others: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Maine, that one place in Nebraska (24 EVs)
Oh fuck, oh no, shit, fuck, shit: Florida (It's Florida, want to predict it? Toss a coin, bitch) (29 EVs)

Democrat Coalition: (200 EVs)
West Coast: California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii (78 EVs)
New England & Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, DC, Virginia (97 EVs)
Others: New Mexico, Illinois (25 EVs)

Republican Coalition:
Midwest: Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, most of Nebraska (35 EVs)
South: Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee (110 EVs)
Mideast: Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia (52 EVs)

Current race:
Lean Dem: Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota (25 EVs)
Lean Rep: Iowa, North Carolina, most of Maine, that one Nebraska place (25 EVs)

Possible scenario:
Dems take Arizona, New Hampshire, part of Maine (17 EVs)
Reps take Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (46 EVs)
Florida is the decider!

Another possible scenario is where there's a tie, and it goes to Congress, where Republicans hold more states and Trump wins. This means that the Democrats must win either Pennsylvania or Florida.

I wouldn’t be so sure about the south, particularly Georgia, staying Republican.