2019-2020 US Elections Megathread I- It Begins

[Major-Tom]

Honestly, I loathe the guy, but he has several paths to re-election;

(1. The Dems nominate a shit-sandwich of a candidate, which is sadly likely....
(2. The base stays as intact as it was in 2016, because, fuck it, it's Trump base, it moves less than an obese man in a marathon.
(3. The economy somehow continues it's bullish path, defying economic predictions and keeps moving full pace.

I find the first and second option most likely, so let's hope the Dems don't nominate a Harris, Castro or Gillibrand. I don't hate any of those names mentioned, but I recognize that electorally, they are weak candidates for a General Election.

Sanders or Biden most likely will win the primaries, though if someone like Elizabeth warren wins trump will have a good chance.

I'd bet money that only one of those two men run. Sanders and Biden both have indicated that they are hesitant, and I really can't blame them at all. But time will tell.

I'm praying some wild card will enter the race and electrify the Democrats. But perhaps I'm being overly optimistic.

[Major-Tom]

Honestly, I loathe the guy, but he has several paths to re-election;

(1. The Dems nominate a shit-sandwich of a candidate, which is sadly likely....
(2. The base stays as intact as it was in 2016, because, fuck it, it's Trump base, it moves less than an obese man in a marathon.
(3. The economy somehow continues it's bullish path, defying economic predictions and keeps moving full pace.

I find the first and second option most likely, so let's hope the Dems don't nominate a Harris, Castro or Gillibrand. I don't hate any of those names mentioned, but I recognize that electorally, they are weak candidates for a General Election.

*chanting* bernie bernie bernie

I respect Bernie, and god, I wish he had won the primaries in 2016. But fuck, he's getting old as shit. From an electability standpoint, that is concerning too.

Also, I'm aware that I'm really finicky and particular with candidates this early on in the "race," I know. By the 2020 DNC, trust me, I'm sure my tune will have changed.

[Pasong Tirad]

Sanders or Biden most likely will win the primaries, though if someone like Elizabeth warren wins trump will have a good chance.

I'd bet money that only one of those two men run. Sanders and Biden both have indicated that they are hesitant, and I really can't blame them at all. But time will tell.

I'm praying some wild card will enter the race and electrify the Democrats. But perhaps I'm being overly optimistic.

I've never heard of Sanders being hesitant to run, more like he just keeps teasing his official announcement because he's still trying to build up more grassroots support (that thing that catapulted him to the national stage in the first place). Like it's all been "if I run" this and "should I run" that.

[Major-Tom]

I'd bet money that only one of those two men run. Sanders and Biden both have indicated that they are hesitant, and I really can't blame them at all. But time will tell.

I'm praying some wild card will enter the race and electrify the Democrats. But perhaps I'm being overly optimistic.

I've never heard of Sanders being hesitant to run, more like he just keeps teasing his official announcement because he's still trying to build up more grassroots support (that thing that catapulted him to the national stage in the first place). Like it's all been "if I run" this and "should I run" that.

I could agree to disagree on that point, but as for the age thing, fuck, I don't know what to think. Part of me really just wants someone younger than say, oh 65?

[Pasong Tirad]

I've never heard of Sanders being hesitant to run, more like he just keeps teasing his official announcement because he's still trying to build up more grassroots support (that thing that catapulted him to the national stage in the first place). Like it's all been "if I run" this and "should I run" that.

I could agree to disagree on that point, but as for the age thing, fuck, I don't know what to think. Part of me really just wants someone younger than say, oh 65?

I understand that, but it just seems like such a weird qualifier to make of a possible president, given how the past few presidents you have had have lived well over 90, and one of them's still volunteering for Habitat for Humanity. Seems like a very personality-driven objection because it doesn't talk about their policies, or their track record, or even their personal ideology.

[Major-Tom]

I could agree to disagree on that point, but as for the age thing, fuck, I don't know what to think. Part of me really just wants someone younger than say, oh 65?

I understand that, but it just seems like such a weird qualifier to make of a possible president, given how the past few presidents you have had have lived well over 90, and one of them's still volunteering for Habitat for Humanity. Seems like a very personality-driven objection because it doesn't talk about their policies, or their track record, or even their personal ideology.

I don't think Sanders will go senile, hell I'd be beyond saddened and shocked if he ever did. I love the guy. But for the primaries, for a general even more importantly, the age would be brought up endlessly. That, actually, is my main issue. It may sound callous to not want Sanders to run again, simply because I think his age will be called into never-ceasing questioning, but I think it may be valid.

To defeat Trump in 2020, the Dems really need the cream of the crop not just in regards to policy, but also in elect-ability. At this juncture in America, it is particularly crucial.

[Bombadil]

I understand that, but it just seems like such a weird qualifier to make of a possible president, given how the past few presidents you have had have lived well over 90, and one of them's still volunteering for Habitat for Humanity. Seems like a very personality-driven objection because it doesn't talk about their policies, or their track record, or even their personal ideology.

I don't think Sanders will go senile, hell I'd be beyond saddened and shocked if he ever did. I love the guy. But for the primaries, for a general even more importantly, the age would be brought up endlessly. That, actually, is my main issue. It may sound callous to not want Sanders to run again, simply because I think his age will be called into never-ceasing questioning, but I think it may be valid.

To defeat Trump in 2020, the Dems really need the cream of the crop not just in regards to policy, but also in elect-ability. At this juncture in America, it is particularly crucial.

I'm not sure Trump can really attack on age and senility, and it's not really his schtick, he goes far lower than that. He'd come up with some dumb ass moniker like Socialist Sanders and just keep hammering it relentlessly.

Having said that.. I don't think Trump has a real chance of victory, he really fluked a win in '16, people forget that..

Take Ohio right now.. it's at -3 for him at the moment when he won by +8, that's a massive shift. I think the general feeling is a weighty tiredness of his bullshit where he only had razor thin margins to deal with anyway. He has some 40% hard core support, I just don't think he can make up the 10% unless there's some major international incident that he manages well. He might make up 8%, maybe 9% but the razor edge he has to crawl over is, I think, beyond him.

In retrospect Clinton was a bad candidate specifically against Trump, someone almost the epitome of what's perceived as the establishment.

So I'm not concerned too much about Trump being dumped out, I am weary of even thinking about the utter bullshit that will be thrown around over the next 22 months.

[Old Tyrannia]

We've got plenty of great democrats. Its a shame the far left is often too blinded by Bernie to realize it; he's trained them to instantly hate any Democrat who doesn't embrace him.

God you really are an idiot.
I'd rather vote Republican than Kamala Harris.

Puldania: *** Three day ban for flaming, *** taking into account both your warning record and the relatively long period that has elapsed since your last ban.

[Trumptonium1]

trump needs a miracle to get re-elected

That's what they said about Reagan when he had 41% approval rating in 1983 (Trump 42% 2019), after he fired over 10 000 air traffic controllers and shut down aviation temporarily because he cracked down on worker rights, pushed for school prayers, also plunged the US into a deep deficit to promote tax cuts, his massive spending into SDI & the military despite public disavowal and Soviet fear and shelling of the Syrians from Lebanon. But he had a booming economy, rising wages and a chronically weak opposition. Then he swooped 49 states.

Oh look. It's almost like Trump from a different era.

Only difference is that the bases of both parties strengthened so getting 49 states again is a near enough impossibility.

[Valrifell]

trump needs a miracle to get re-elected

That's what they said about Reagan when he had 41% approval rating in 1983 (Trump 42% 2019), after he fired over 10 000 air traffic controllers and shut down aviation temporarily because he cracked down on worker rights, pushed for school prayers, also plunged the US into a deep deficit to promote tax cuts, his massive spending into SDI & the military despite public disavowal and Soviet fear and shelling of the Syrians from Lebanon. But he had a booming economy, rising wages and a chronically weak opposition. Then he swooped 49 states.

Oh look. It's almost like Trump from a different era.

Only difference is that the bases of both parties strengthened so getting 49 states again is a near enough impossibility.

Ronald Reagan at least was popular before his many scandals and fucking things up and a strong folksy personality that made people fall in love with him and ignore his many, many, many, (many) shortcomings. Reagan was a good orator and was really good at cultivating a good public image that allowed for a path to regain the nation's trust.

Needless to say, Donald Trump is no Ronnie, and I'd argue that the only reason Trump's numbers aren't worse is because of the hyperpartisanship of the current day.

[Myrensis]

trump needs a miracle to get re-elected

That's what they said about Reagan when he had 41% approval rating in 1983 (Trump 42% 2019), after he fired over 10 000 air traffic controllers and shut down aviation temporarily because he cracked down on worker rights, pushed for school prayers, also plunged the US into a deep deficit to promote tax cuts, his massive spending into SDI & the military despite public disavowal and Soviet fear and shelling of the Syrians from Lebanon. But he had a booming economy, rising wages and a chronically weak opposition. Then he swooped 49 states.

Oh look. It's almost like Trump from a different era.

Only difference is that the bases of both parties strengthened so getting 49 states again is a near enough impossibility.

Are you suggesting that we've been in a recession for the last 2 years and you're expecting things to turn around?

Or are you just casually glossing over the fact that Reagan entered office with 68% approval, it sank as the recession dragged on through his first two years, and started rising steadily again as the economy improved, whereas Trump has been underwater from day one and in spite of 2 years of a strong economy has failed to rise above his floor of dedicated support. Because while Reagan was actually charismatic and a good speaker, Trumps shtick is entirely one note and people either bought into it from the start or they didn't, and for those who didn't he's so repellant he's managed to make them decide "Maybe it's not just the economy, stupid." .

[Hediacrana]

Or are you just casually glossing over the fact that Reagan entered office with 68% approval, it sank as the recession dragged on through his first two years, and started rising steadily again as the economy improved, whereas Trump has been underwater from day one and in spite of 2 years of a strong economy has failed to rise above his floor of dedicated support. Because while Reagan was actually charismatic and a good speaker, Trumps shtick is entirely one note and people either bought into it from the start or they didn't, and for those who didn't he's so repellant he's managed to make them decide "Maybe it's not just the economy, stupid." .

May I just say, that's a really great few lines there at the end. You should be writing for some real publication; I feel they are a little wasted on this platform!

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Oh yeah 53% of Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance.

[Bienenhalde]

Neither rule by the majority, nor rule by the minority, is inherently good or bad.

Depends. Do you believe in right and wrong?

I do. And the rightness or wrongness of any given action is absolutely NOT a matter of whether or not it is popular.

[Bienenhalde]

Depends. Do you believe in right and wrong?

>implying it's that simple

Anyways, to get back on topic, I want Kasich to run again.

Surprisingly enough, I actually agree with Northern Davincia here.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Gonna drop a hot take and say if Trump doesn't build any sort of barrier it's gonna hurt him badly come 2020 and might be one of those few things that could make loyal parts of the base question him.

[Boring People]

Gonna drop a hot take and say if Trump doesn't build any sort of barrier it's gonna hurt him badly come 2020 and might be one of those few things that could make loyal parts of the base question him.

I think you’re right. Ann Coulter for one is known to be strongly pro-wall, and is suggesting failure to build it would be a dealbreaker for her. source You have to assume there are others, too.

[Thermodolia]

Gonna drop a hot take and say if Trump doesn't build any sort of barrier it's gonna hurt him badly come 2020 and might be one of those few things that could make loyal parts of the base question him.

Come on Trump fuck this thing up!!

[New haven america]

Gonna drop a hot take and say if Trump doesn't build any sort of barrier it's gonna hurt him badly come 2020 and might be one of those few things that could make loyal parts of the base question him.

Come on Trump fuck this thing up!!

Or, he's going to tell his base that it was the Democrats obstructing him and keeping him from securing our border allowing rapists and drug addicts and blah blah blah... into the country to rape our women and murder and or get our kids addicted to drugs and that they hate America.

You know, basically what he's doing right now.

[Sane Outcasts]

Come on Trump fuck this thing up!!

Or, he's going to tell his base that it was the Democrats obstructing him and keeping him from securing our border allowing rapists and drug addicts and blah blah blah... into the country to rape our women and murder and or get our kids addicted to drugs and that they hate America.

You know, basically what he's doing right now.

You make it sound like he isn't doing that every moment of every day anyway.

[Hediacrana]

Or, he's going to tell his base that it was the Democrats obstructing him and keeping him from securing our border allowing rapists and drug addicts and blah blah blah... into the country to rape our women and murder and or get our kids addicted to drugs and that they hate America.

You know, basically what he's doing right now.

You make it sound like he isn't doing that every moment of every day anyway.

If it won't be built, he'll just claim it is actually built anyway, and that anyone who says differently is obviously lying.

[Ifreann]

Gonna drop a hot take and say if Trump doesn't build any sort of barrier it's gonna hurt him badly come 2020 and might be one of those few things that could make loyal parts of the base question him.

I feel like people have been saying this since Trump was elected, or even before.

[Bahktar]

Trump's loyal base isn't going to question him, ever. What are going to question him are independent voters, which are key to winning an election. You can't win an election with your loyal base alone. Looking at Trump's approval ratings, I don't think there's a lot of hope for Trump, in my opinion, unless something changes. The Democratic Party has a pretty good chance of beating Trump in 2020.

[Shrillland]

From the AP: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/steyer-wont-run-for-president-will-focus-on-impeachment/ar-BBS21r3?li=BBnb7Kz

Crisis officially averted.

[Oldenfranck]

JOE MANCHIN! But given the options, Delaney.