NationStates

We all know North Korea is an oppressive regime that needs to be toppled but the question is how? We can't just go in guns blazing as that would anger Russia and China and would lead the millions of civilian deaths and might start WW3. Sanctions are doing jackshit and the UN aint going to do anything either and assassinating Kim Jong UN is difficult and is not guaranteed to work. So NSG how do you think we should deal with them?

As for my thoughts? Well first off nuking them is not an option. It would kill to many innocents and might lead to North Korean retaliation if we fail to take out their retaliatory assets. Also it would spread radioactive waste into South Korea, China, and Japan. So in my opinion the best way to deal with North Korea is to work with China and Russia on this. They are North Korea's main line of defense so remove them and we may be able to take more direct action against North Korea. Now of course an invasion would be a bad idea and getting China and Russia to agree to help deal with North Korea will be difficult. But I think it may be possible and their cooperation is going to be the only real way we have at taking the North Korean regime down other than just waiting.

But anyway NSG how should we deal with the North Korean regime?

While there is a good chance that Kim Jong Un does possess a hefty nuclear arsenal and he's shown he's not afraid to use it, that doesn't mean he will. While he could go to war with America and all its allies, we all know how that'll end. I'd wager our best bet is seeing these diplomatic talks through.

Make sure their nuclear capabilities remain low. North Korea has a powerful military for it's size and it's essentially a Chinese vassal backed by both China and Russia, so nobody can simply get in and topple the regime. Even without any kind of support, North Korea still has a gorillion missiles and chemical weapons. It would be nothing like Libya or Iraq.

From this article: https://www.vox.com/world/2018/2/7/1697 ... ear-weapon

The consensus view is that Kim would try to level the playing field by using his vast arsenal of chemical weapons, which is believed to be the biggest and most technologically advanced in the world. (Kim is estimated to have between 2,500 and 5,000 metric tons of deadly nerve agents like sarin, which can cause paralysis and, ultimately, death.)

Ignore them. They are nothing but trolls screaming what they are going to do. They do nothing, so ignore them and they will collapse on their own.

With diplomacy and trying to encourage internal reform and opening up to global trade. Use a carrot and stick approach. Avoid collapse at all costs, because that would be even more of a nightmare. Basically, glasnost', but handled better.

Autarkheia wrote:With diplomacy and trying to encourage internal reform and opening up to global trade. Use a carrot and stick approach. Avoid collapse at all costs, because that would be even more of a nightmare. Basically, glasnost', but handled better.

Generally this. I think NK can be pressured into cooperation. There will be some saber-rattling on their end, but this is probably for Kim to save face in his country while giving up nuclear arms and opening his economy. Of course,they are sill a brutal dictatorship with a large military, hence caution should be exercise and a sizable US and South Korean military presence on the borders should be maintained.

Industrial Skyrim wrote:

Autarkheia wrote:With diplomacy and trying to encourage internal reform and opening up to global trade. Use a carrot and stick approach. Avoid collapse at all costs, because that would be even more of a nightmare. Basically, glasnost', but handled better.

Generally this. I think NK can be pressured into cooperation. There will be some saber-rattling on their end, but this is probably for Kim to save face in his country while giving up nuclear arms and opening his economy. Of course,they are sill a brutal dictatorship with a large military, hence caution should be exercise and a sizable US and South Korean military presence on the borders should be maintained.

What is in it for the Kim dynasty by co-operating with the outside world?

Special Aromas wrote:What is in it for the Kim dynasty by co-operating with the outside world?

The long-term survival and enrichment of his regime due to integration into the world economy.

Diplomatic talks to enter them back until the international community. Their isolation is helping propaganga that strengthens their regime.

There are real people in North Korea, and it's easy to forget that twenty-five million live in terror and abject poverty from the absolute irresponsibility of the authoritarian regime.

There's a crossroads. If North Korea stood alone, that would be that. But, with China's economic power rising every day, we cannot risk the Red Dragon's wrath. They need to collapse internally, and assassinating the current head wouldn't do very much but foment absolute chaos between the higher echelons of their military.

I'd say we (as in the world governments) need to aid the black market efforts of getting information on the rest of the world in, and escapees out. Give the North Korean people a sign that they are oppressed, and we are on their side. Obviously, that idea might seem myopic as I don't have a step-by-step, but it seems like it would be helpful without directly creating the North Korean ISIS.

Industrial Skyrim wrote:

Special Aromas wrote:What is in it for the Kim dynasty by co-operating with the outside world?

The long-term survival and enrichment of his regime due to integration into the world economy.

Why would the world economy want or allow the long term survival or enrichment of his regime? The Kim families punitive treatment of their citizens is the reason they're isolated in the first place, the arms race came later.

In 2002 George W. Bush described Ian, Iraq and North Korea collectively as the axis of evil. Then he invaded Iraq. Unsurprisingly, this motivated both Iran and North Korea to get tooled up, a decision that can only have been validated by what happened to Gaddafi in Libya after he accepted the offer to give up WMD, behave himself and join the international community. Allegedly North Korea now have an ICBM that could theoretically reach Alaska if it wasn't shot down by any of the far more advanced defence systems on the way. What does anyone think they're going to do? Take out Sarah Palin? These aren't weapons of aggression and despite all the jokes about nuclear war nobody really thinks North Korea can challenge the USA. What they need is just enough to make the possible cost of invading them so high that the Americans and others think twice before going in, whether that's for launching at the South or (more likely) using as a battlefield weapon. This is in a context where the US and the South regularly conduct military exercises that are rehearsals for invading the North, right by their borders and coastline. Imagine how that would play if the Chinese tried to do the equivalent in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico. If the US had minded its own business in the first place, or if 9/11 hadn't happened and Bush had stuck with his planned policy of isolationism, there's no way these nukes would ever had existed.

I also don't buy all of the "Kim the mad dictator" narrative, but that's a much longer story. Suffice it to say that a huge number of stories about him mandating everyone copy his haircut, feeding his uncle to a pack of dogs or proclaiming the discovery of a unicorn's lair and many more have turned out to be completely untrue. Our sources of information on what happens in North Korea are limited to what the government shows people on carefully staged visits and the accounts of defectors - by definition a non-representative sample who are offered cash payments by interviewers who want to be shocked (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/ ... fall-apart). Satellite pictures seem to show the prison camps exist and I doubt what goes on there is very nice, but following Guantanamo, Abu Grahib, extraordinary rendition, the treatment of child refugees by the US and UK and many other examples the West frankly needs to get its own house in order before it points fingers.

North Korea has been so cut off by sanctions that basic electronics has been proscribed in case it's used for weapons. Kim was flown to the Singapore summit on a borrowed Chinese plane because the country doesn't own one it would entrust its leader's life to. We blame them for starving their own people in the flood-caused famine of the 1990s, but having ensured they couldn't build the infrastructure to cope with such events we watched it unfold with zero humanitarian aid. Their actual offence was to introduce a rationing system that gave more food to essential workers than to others. You might feel you'd have made a different choice, but just be thankful you've never been confronted with that dilemma. If they'd been treated with less paranoia they would have had so much more opportunity to develop in a healthier way.

So how to deal with North Korea now? Just leave them alone. There's zero sign of aggression towards anyone beyond their borders when they're not being threatened. From the Caliphate of ISIS to the public slave markets of Libya, so many harmful and unintended consequences have come from the West toppling governments it doesn't like.

We should take North Korea and push it somewhere else!

Build a wall around it and turn it into Battle Royale supreme leader edition

Mystic Warriors wrote:Ignore them. They are nothing but trolls screaming what they are going to do. They do nothing, so ignore them and they will collapse on their own.

NK will never collapse on it's own. China won't allow it.

Deliberately exacerbate tentions and then arrange talks where by we can claim credit for restoring the status quo. Then claim the problem is solved and that there will be no problems going forward because they won’t cause trouble again.

Special Aromas wrote:

Industrial Skyrim wrote:Generally this. I think NK can be pressured into cooperation. There will be some saber-rattling on their end, but this is probably for Kim to save face in his country while giving up nuclear arms and opening his economy. Of course,they are sill a brutal dictatorship with a large military, hence caution should be exercise and a sizable US and South Korean military presence on the borders should be maintained.

What is in it for the Kim dynasty by co-operating with the outside world?

More importantly what’s in it for China?

Autumn Wind wrote:Deliberately exacerbate tentions and then arrange talks where by we can claim credit for restoring the status quo. Then claim the problem is solved and that there will be no problems going forward because they won’t cause trouble again.

Would should we do? Nothing at all. They’re a sovereign nation so the only thing we should doing is lifting the sanctions. As it is quite obvious the tactic of getting the people to revolt against the government through starvation isn’t working at all. So, let’s just improve trade and diplomatic relations instead of pointless ideological feuds.

Special Aromas wrote:

Industrial Skyrim wrote:Generally this. I think NK can be pressured into cooperation. There will be some saber-rattling on their end, but this is probably for Kim to save face in his country while giving up nuclear arms and opening his economy. Of course,they are sill a brutal dictatorship with a large military, hence caution should be exercise and a sizable US and South Korean military presence on the borders should be maintained.

What is in it for the Kim dynasty by co-operating with the outside world?

Less famines so they can still have a populace to rule, maybe?

But seriously, a diplomatic approach (agreeable indeed) would be better since there's a much lesser chance of losing lives and possibility of developing a culture of hatred against North Korea's "detractors". Ignoring NK might not be a feasible solution in the long-term.

We should look at cutting a deal with China.

If China helps with the ending the North Korean regime China gets the following after Korea is reunited under the ROK.

China can have North Hamgyong and Rason. This would be a major benefit to China as it would give China a port on the Sea of Japan.
The US will withdraw all ground forces from Korea, and only keep a limited naval and an air support facility in the Pusan area, with no permanent forces deployed. I am even willing to agree to a neutral Korea with no US bases at all, if Korea supports it and their security guaranteed.

So China would have no need to worry about US forces at the Chinese border. The US would only hold exercises with the South in the Pusan region. The rest of the country we be off limits, by treaty to foreign forces.

This would strengthen, not harm China’s strategic position.

If China says no we:
Sanction the hell out of them.

Drop the one China thing.
China needs to be called out on its hypocrisy that there can only be “one China” but that there must be two Koreas.

Return nuclear weapons to our forces in the South and create a nuclear sharing agreement with the South (if the South agrees).

In the alternate North Korea can stop being an odious troll, give up its illegal nuclear, chemical and biological weapons (with verification), stop launching intermittent attacks on the South, agree to the withdrawal of heavy forces from the border region (by all sides including the US) and sign a nonaggression treaty with the South. Then their regime can still hang around and the sanctions can be dropped.

Though we still drop the “One China” thing in this scenario.

To be honest things have settled down quite a bit over the past year. I'm pragmatic enough to have a "let's wait and see" attitude.

The New California Republic wrote:To be honest things have settled down quite a bit over the past year. I'm pragmatic enough to have a "let's wait and see" attitude.

Wasn't this the Obama approach?

If nobody does nothing, won't NK develop a fully-fledged arsenal of ICBMs that can hit the USA?

Get a network of information going between the people of NK and the rest of the world, convince the people of NK to revolt, and help the revolt when it happens, so as to prevent as many deaths as possible.

Special Aromas wrote:

Industrial Skyrim wrote:The long-term survival and enrichment of his regime due to integration into the world economy.

Why would the world economy want or allow the long term survival or enrichment of his regime? The Kim families punitive treatment of their citizens is the reason they're isolated in the first place, the arms race came later.

There's a regime that killed more people than Hitler and the Nazis, and which continues to oppress religious and ethnic minorities, going so far as to segregating some of them into reeducation camps against their will. That regime is in command of China, the largest national economy by purchasing power parity (PPP). Money talks, and the world largely ignores the crimes of the Chinese Communist Party. They will also ignore Kim if he joins the global economy and contributes to global prosperity.