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by Trumptonium1 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:46 pm
by Novus America » Fri Dec 07, 2018 12:57 pm
by Thermodolia » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:01 pm
Novus America wrote:Rojava Free State wrote:
yeah that too. point is, i dont think macron will be president next year
He will be. Hollande was just as hated, but he shambled on, zombie like through the rest of his disaster of a presidency. Macron, all his flaws aside is still a million times smarter than Hollande (admittedly that is an absurdly low bar, my cat is much smarter than Hollande).
If Hollande could survive so will Macron.
But what comes after becomes truly interesting.
Clearly Macron is almost certainly not getting re-elected.
So who comes next? PS is out, Macron’s technocrats are out.
by Western Vale Confederacy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:03 pm
by Western Vale Confederacy » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:08 pm
by Kaggeceria » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:27 pm
Trumptonium1 wrote:So .... was a vote for Macron simply a vote for Le Pen in the future?
by Senkaku » Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:43 pm
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:Arlenton wrote:Well, I guess it's as step up. At least Le Pen cares more about French citizens than dumb ass polar bears.
Marine Le Pen, despite being constantly branded as a far-right politician by her opponents, also has largely reformed her party into something more palatable (dropping her father's more insane/far-right ideals and suggested policies), so she's certainly a very real threat to Macron.
by Trumptonium1 » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:52 pm
Senkaku wrote:Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Marine Le Pen, despite being constantly branded as a far-right politician by her opponents, also has largely reformed her party into something more palatable (dropping her father's more insane/far-right ideals and suggested policies), so she's certainly a very real threat to Macron.Kaggeceria wrote:Pretty much.
Everything I've read and heard leads me to think that the gilets jaunes aren't really big fans of Le Pen or Melenchon, either, but if it makes you feel good then speculate away ig lol
by Great Minarchistan » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:16 pm
by Phoenicaea » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:34 pm
by Freezic Vast » Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:48 pm
by Major-Tom » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:36 am
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:Arlenton wrote:Well, I guess it's as step up. At least Le Pen cares more about French citizens than dumb ass polar bears.
Marine Le Pen, despite being constantly branded as a far-right politician by her opponents, also has largely reformed her party into something more palatable (dropping her father's more insane/far-right ideals and suggested policies), so she's certainly a very real threat to Macron.
by Telconi » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:33 am
Major-Tom wrote:Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Marine Le Pen, despite being constantly branded as a far-right politician by her opponents, also has largely reformed her party into something more palatable (dropping her father's more insane/far-right ideals and suggested policies), so she's certainly a very real threat to Macron.
I think she has her voter ceiling. I could be wrong, but I just don't see her ever breaching 50%. Whether people support some of her policies on an individual basis is one thing, but FN's overlying and fundamental ideologies aren't popular enough to form a working majority/coalition. I just don't see it.
With the French left hilariously splintered, and the French right essentially a tug of war between the more protectionist and anti-immigration FN and more "open" and traditionally right-wing TR, Macron's place in the mushy "middle" still remains an advantage. In 2017, he only won the first round with 23% of the vote or so.
In other words - he was never this immensely popular and loved figure, he won because of the fractures in the left and right wings.
by Painisia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:37 am
Freezic Vast wrote:When the French Socialists and Communists are leading the no confidence vote, against Macron there's a problem, it's even worse when Macron is now just as if not more unpopular than Hollande was.
-Christian DemocratFormerly, the nation of Painisia November 2017 - August 2019
-Syncretic
-Distributist
-Personalist
-Ecologism
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by Painisia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 3:40 am
-Christian DemocratFormerly, the nation of Painisia November 2017 - August 2019
-Syncretic
-Distributist
-Personalist
-Ecologism
-Popolarismo
-Corporatist
by Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States » Sat Dec 08, 2018 5:05 am
Painisia wrote:As several people have layed out here, Macron`s unpopularity could lead to gains for Marine Le Pen. I don't think the chance of a Le Pen presidency is low, but the whole France still thinks Marine has the same principles and thoughts like her batshit-crazy father Jean. I can now predict a second round with Marine Le Pen vs. Jean Luc Melenchon in 2022. Aren't the people tired of the PS?
by Trumptonium1 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:21 am
by Thermodolia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:23 am
Freezic Vast wrote:When the French Socialists and Communists are leading the no confidence vote, against Macron there's a problem, it's even worse when Macron is now just as if not more unpopular than Hollande was.
by Trumptonium1 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:26 am
Thermodolia wrote:Freezic Vast wrote:When the French Socialists and Communists are leading the no confidence vote, against Macron there's a problem, it's even worse when Macron is now just as if not more unpopular than Hollande was.
First off the National Assembly can’t have a vote of no confidence against Macron. Second macron is sitting around 23%, Hollande got down to 4%
by Thermodolia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:28 am
Major-Tom wrote:Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Marine Le Pen, despite being constantly branded as a far-right politician by her opponents, also has largely reformed her party into something more palatable (dropping her father's more insane/far-right ideals and suggested policies), so she's certainly a very real threat to Macron.
I think she has her voter ceiling. I could be wrong, but I just don't see her ever breaching 50%. Whether people support some of her policies on an individual basis is one thing, but FN's overlying and fundamental ideologies aren't popular enough to form a working majority/coalition. I just don't see it.
With the French left hilariously splintered, and the French right essentially a tug of war between the more protectionist and anti-immigration FN and more "open" and traditionally right-wing TR, Macron's place in the mushy "middle" still remains an advantage. In 2017, he only won the first round with 23% of the vote or so.
In other words - he was never this immensely popular and loved figure, he won because of the fractures in the left and right wings.
by Thermodolia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:34 am
Trumptonium1 wrote:Thermodolia wrote:First off the National Assembly can’t have a vote of no confidence against Macron. Second macron is sitting around 23%, Hollande got down to 4%
Hollande's lowest was 12%. Macron's lowest is 18%, and that cratered far faster than Hollande. So who knows where Macron will be in 2021.
by Trumptonium1 » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:34 am
Thermodolia wrote:Plus according to new polling for EU seats RN is above LREM (Macron) for the first time in history
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/04/french- ... -poll.html
by Thermodolia » Sat Dec 08, 2018 7:39 am
Trumptonium1 wrote:Thermodolia wrote:Plus according to new polling for EU seats RN is above LREM (Macron) for the first time in history
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/04/french- ... -poll.html
?
FN already has the largest number of French seats in the EU Parliament which they won in 2014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Euro ... _in_France
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