US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

[Hakons]

I don't know Arizona culture very well, but (indirectly) replacing John McCain with Sinema is a very sorry thought.

John McCain was basically a Democrat, he is being replaced by a Democrat.

McCain was a moderate conservative. In some sense, resisting moral changes brought by Trump is the heights of conservatism. At least, it is in my book.

I was more referring to the two's relationship with the American military. The idea that McCain could get replaced with Sinema is a sad one.

[Valrifell]

I think New Jersey could, but there's like a 5-10% chance or less it flips, and Michigan is less than 1% of it flipping. 55-45 is what I think could be the most likely outcome, maybe 54-46.

I think 53 is most likely

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

[San Lumen]

I think 53 is most likely

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

That would be my guess as well. North Dakota will likely be the only Republican gain

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/ ... 018_v2.pdf

Stabenow up 54-41 in the latest poll. Clearly she's guaranteed to lose on Tuesday.

[Valrifell]

I think 53 is most likely

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

Although as we get closer to the election, I think a 50-50 or 49-51 split are also equally likely.

[Old Tyrannia]

Steve King done shot his own foot up like a synagogue.

Purina, Intel, and Land O' Lakes ditch support for Rep. Steve King after inflammatory comments

Petrasylvania: *** One day ban for trolling. *** This was incredibly insensitive and inflammatory, regardless of intention, and you have a substantial record already.

[San Lumen]

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

Although as we get closer to the election, I think a 50-50 or 49-51 split are also equally likely.

I think thats a reasonable range.

[Cannot think of a name]

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

Although as we get closer to the election, I think a 50-50 or 49-51 split are also equally likely.

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

[Rectification Government]

Steve King done shot his own foot up like a synagogue.

Purina, Intel, and Land O' Lakes ditch support for Rep. Steve King after inflammatory comments

Petrasylvania: *** One day ban for trolling. *** This was incredibly insensitive and inflammatory, regardless of intention, and you have a substantial record already.

Based mods.

[San Lumen]

Although as we get closer to the election, I think a 50-50 or 49-51 split are also equally likely.

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

If Republicans gain anything it would be red wave. He'd spin a gain in Alaska quite possibly the only governorship Republicans gain as a red wave.

Whats your prediction for state governments?

[Valrifell]

Although as we get closer to the election, I think a 50-50 or 49-51 split are also equally likely.

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

Iunno, it seems like polls are breaking in favor of Dems in competitive states as we get closer to election day, plus I have a sneaking suspicion that pollsters "overcorrected" after 2016 and, instead of mildly overestimating Democrats are wildly underestimating Democratic candidates in an effort to "be more right." When most of the data wasn't really wrong and altering the methodology could have unforeseen consequences. Though this is (mostly) baseless speculation, but Dems have gained in tossup states as of late, so there's that.

But yes, if anything barring Dems taking the Senate happens, Trump and co. will declare it a massive humiliation of Democrats and a victory for them and some on this board will discard any previous predictions and jump on that wagon as well.

[Thermodolia]

I think 53 is most likely

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

Probably especially if Indiana and MO holds

[San Lumen]

GOP +1 is probably what we're going to end up with, imo.

Probably especially if Indiana and MO holds

Indiana seems to be moving away from Republicans. Missouri could go either way at this point.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Got my ballot today
My party made onto
A candidate for Commisioner of Agriculture
Woo

[Valrifell]

Probably especially if Indiana and MO holds

Indiana seems to be moving away from Republicans. Missouri could go either way at this point.

I'm expecting Dems to be underestimated this cycle so I think it's very plausible that MO holds.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Probably especially if Indiana and MO holds

Indiana seems to be moving away from Republicans. Missouri could go either way at this point.

As could I lord Freeza

[Cannot think of a name]

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

If Republicans gain anything it would be red wave. He'd spin a gain in Alaska quite possibly the only governorship Republicans gain as a red wave.

Whats your prediction for state governments?

I don’t think my system is so arcane that it can’t be extrapolated into any race you like. It looks like “I” (by way of poll agrigate) think it’s 24-26. I know Handsome Dan Gavin Newsome will be my next Governor. That’s about it.

[Post War America]

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

Iunno, it seems like polls are breaking in favor of Dems in competitive states as we get closer to election day, plus I have a sneaking suspicion that pollsters "overcorrected" after 2016 and, instead of mildly overestimating Democrats are wildly underestimating Democratic candidates in an effort to "be more right." When most of the data wasn't really wrong and altering the methodology could have unforeseen consequences. Though this is (mostly) baseless speculation, but Dems have gained in tossup states as of late, so there's that.

But yes, if anything barring Dems taking the Senate happens, Trump and co. will declare it a massive humiliation of Democrats and a victory for them and some on this board will discard any previous predictions and jump on that wagon as well.

I doubt the pollsters overcorrected in most cases outside the Southwest. If my remembrance of how the pollsters do their thing works, they tend to badly underrepresent certain communities in such a way as I suspect they're underperforming Democrats in the Southwest, and underperforming Republicans in the Rustbelt.

[San Lumen]

Indiana seems to be moving away from Republicans. Missouri could go either way at this point.

I'm expecting Dems to be underestimated this cycle so I think it's very plausible that MO holds.

I agree. Districts and other races are in play that shouldn't be.

A perfect example is Iowa's fifth district represented by Steve King who has made borderline white supremacist comments over the years is now considered vulnerable. This is not a district that should even be close. If its in play something big is coming.

Same goes for several districts in Upstate New York. I think we might be looking at a repeat of what happened in Virginia last year only this time on a national scale which would be a utterly disastrous night for Republicans but i am not going to be overconfident. Im actively doing my part by helping on several campaigns.

[San Lumen]

If Republicans gain anything it would be red wave. He'd spin a gain in Alaska quite possibly the only governorship Republicans gain as a red wave.

Whats your prediction for state governments?

I don’t think my system is so arcane that it can’t be extrapolated into any race you like. It looks like “I” (by way of poll agrigate) think it’s 24-26. I know Handsome Dan Gavin Newsome will be my next Governor. That’s about it.

It was never in any doubt he was going to be the next Governor

[Farnhamia]

Petrasylvania: *** One day ban for trolling. *** This was incredibly insensitive and inflammatory, regardless of intention, and you have a substantial record already.

Based mods.

*** 1 day ban for gloating over another's punishment. ***

[Cannot think of a name]

In my entirety not intensive evaluation where I don’t pretend to have inside knowledge of the voter base of a dozen states and their races or repeat my favorite pundit as if it’s my idea, I just look at the tracker on 538 and when the “most common gain” or whatever goes past .5 I round up and go, “most likely that.” Which is literally what that model says, but not practically. So I’m guessing a gain in the senate of 1 for Republicans and like around 40 in the House for dems.

And then I expect Donald and co. to act as if the senate was the only thing that mattered and that single gain is evidence of a red wave, the biggest in history, and a mandate for the worst of their ideas. Then anything that goes bad is those no good democrats in the house trying to surrender America to a street gang or some such bullshit.

Iunno, it seems like polls are breaking in favor of Dems in competitive states as we get closer to election day, plus I have a sneaking suspicion that pollsters "overcorrected" after 2016 and, instead of mildly overestimating Democrats are wildly underestimating Democratic candidates in an effort to "be more right." When most of the data wasn't really wrong and altering the methodology could have unforeseen consequences. Though this is (mostly) baseless speculation, but Dems have gained in tossup states as of late, so there's that.

But yes, if anything barring Dems taking the Senate happens, Trump and co. will declare it a massive humiliation of Democrats and a victory for them and some on this board will discard any previous predictions and jump on that wagon as well.

I would love to wake up to a split senate or even 51 dems on Wednesday (that shit is going late and the winner will still be the winner in the morning, I’m goin to bed), but I don’t really have anything to base that on but wishful thinking. I can’t say how predictive these special elections are.

[Cannot think of a name]

I don’t think my system is so arcane that it can’t be extrapolated into any race you like. It looks like “I” (by way of poll agrigate) think it’s 24-26. I know Handsome Dan Gavin Newsome will be my next Governor. That’s about it.

It was never in any doubt he was going to be the next Governor

Yeah, I knew that shit when he was my mayor.

[Valrifell]

Iunno, it seems like polls are breaking in favor of Dems in competitive states as we get closer to election day, plus I have a sneaking suspicion that pollsters "overcorrected" after 2016 and, instead of mildly overestimating Democrats are wildly underestimating Democratic candidates in an effort to "be more right." When most of the data wasn't really wrong and altering the methodology could have unforeseen consequences. Though this is (mostly) baseless speculation, but Dems have gained in tossup states as of late, so there's that.

But yes, if anything barring Dems taking the Senate happens, Trump and co. will declare it a massive humiliation of Democrats and a victory for them and some on this board will discard any previous predictions and jump on that wagon as well.

I would love to wake up to a split senate or even 51 dems on Wednesday (that shit is going late and the winner will still be the winner in the morning, I’m goin to bed), but I don’t really have anything to base that on but wishful thinking. I can’t say how predictive these special elections are.

I mean, I don't have anything to base it on either except vague memories of reading stuff about pollsters "correcting" themselves and me arguing that could mean underestimating Dems in the future. The status quo or GOP+1 is most probably what we're looking at.

I doubt the pollsters overcorrected in most cases outside the Southwest. If my remembrance of how the pollsters do their thing works, they tend to badly underrepresent certain communities in such a way as I suspect they're underperforming Democrats in the Southwest, and underperforming Republicans in the Rustbelt.

Take this as speculation on my part. I'm not too well versed on how pollsters poll, but it does make sense that they'd do different things for different states/regions. Although I am still concerned that a lot of them over did it after the backlash in 2016.

[San Lumen]

It was never in any doubt he was going to be the next Governor

Yeah, I knew that shit when he was my mayor.

What's so bad about him?

[Cannot think of a name]

Yeah, I knew that shit when he was my mayor.

What's so bad about him?

I don’t have a problem with him.