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US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

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Thermodolia
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Founded: Oct 07, 2011
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:11 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Page wrote:
Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.


One could argue it does more damage when nothing is getting done.

Well the last time we had a split congress the republicans gained control about four years later so...
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Page
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Page » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:12 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Page wrote:
Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.


One could argue it does more damage when nothing is getting done.


My view is that the Republicans make everything worse, Democrats preserve the shitty status quo and sometimes, rarely, might make things slightly better, and watch out when they work together because the stuff that Republicans and Democrats agree on include: Bombing countries that never attacked us, automatic renewal of the Patriot Act and a blank check for mass surveillance in violation of the 4th Amendment, expanding the military industrial complex, and throwing more gasoline on to the tire fire that is American drug policy.

So I am truly hoping there is too much bad blood and resentment between the two parties to even work together on those things. Yay polarization!
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Page
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Postby Page » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:15 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
One could argue it does more damage when nothing is getting done.

Well the last time we had a split congress the republicans gained control about four years later so...


The other party always gains control 4 or 6 years later. 2020 will have a very favorable Senate map for the Democrats so they'll take that then. I'd like to think Trump won't be reelected but if the Democrats nominate a terrible candidate again like 2016, it could happen.

But sooner or later, the other party gets their power back.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:27 am

Page wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Well the last time we had a split congress the republicans gained control about four years later so...


The other party always gains control 4 or 6 years later. 2020 will have a very favorable Senate map for the Democrats so they'll take that then. I'd like to think Trump won't be reelected but if the Democrats nominate a terrible candidate again like 2016, it could happen.

But sooner or later, the other party gets their power back.

I keep seeing this argument that 2020 looks back for Democrats too.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:22 am

On the eve of the election, Tennessee Senate race has gone back to toss-up.
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:23 am

Corrian wrote:On the eve of the election, Tennessee Senate race has gone back to toss-up.


The last poll was +8 for the GOP and the average is still above 5 last I checked. While I won't deny the chance of an upset it's seeming mighty unlikely.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:24 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Corrian wrote:On the eve of the election, Tennessee Senate race has gone back to toss-up.


The last poll was +8 for the GOP and the average is still above 5 last I checked. While I won't deny the chance of an upset it's seeming mighty unlikely.

Hey, I'm just posting things I see and giving people false hopes because I'm evil :P
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:39 am

Maybe I'm being a bit generous and hopeful, though I'm trying to do so within reason, but this is honestly my prediction. Though I can see the most likely one to flip being Missouri, which makes no change from the current Senate map. Maybe Arizona but I'm just going to go off of the consistency overall that Sinema has led most of the election cycle, while Missouri has been pretty much a toss up all election, leading me to believe that is the one most likely to flip if it doesn't narrowly stay. Either way, it'll probably be 52-48, 51-49, or 50-50 in the end. I don't see any higher or lower.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:44 am

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:59 am

Jesus Christ, the Democrats house chances are now at 7 in 8, aka 88% chance they take the house.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Ex-Nation

Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:18 am

Corrian wrote:Jesus Christ, the Democrats house chances are now at 7 in 8, aka 88% chance they take the house.


I wouldn't be so prideful of your polls, remember 2016? lol

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Conserative Morality
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Postby Conserative Morality » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:23 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Corrian wrote:Jesus Christ, the Democrats house chances are now at 7 in 8, aka 88% chance they take the house.


I wouldn't be so prideful of your polls, remember 2016? lol

"hurr hurr remember 2016 when the polls were right and Hillary and Trump got about the percentages they were supposed to"
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:26 am

Conserative Morality wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
I wouldn't be so prideful of your polls, remember 2016? lol

"hurr hurr remember 2016 when the polls were right and Hillary and Trump got about the percentages they were supposed to"


>85% probability of Hillary winning
>"polls were right"

'Scuse me what?

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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:28 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Corrian wrote:Jesus Christ, the Democrats house chances are now at 7 in 8, aka 88% chance they take the house.


I wouldn't be so prideful of your polls, remember 2016? lol

I've argued my point about the 2016 polls so much I don't feel like bothering with it anymore.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:37 am

So Steve King was endorsed by Chuck Grassley. Ain't that a lovely look for Grassley.
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Dahon
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Founded: Nov 11, 2015
Ex-Nation

Postby Dahon » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:39 am

Corrian wrote:So Steve King was endorsed by Chuck Grassley. Ain't that a lovely look for Grassley.


*laughs in Roy Moore*

"I mean, look, we can take a moral stand and not support the bigot whatever his poll numbers are, or we pull in the Daily Stormer crowd, make them vote for us. The choice is clear."
Last edited by Dahon on Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:46 am

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Painisia
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Postby Painisia » Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:52 am

When are we going to get the results? 9 pm?
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Xmara
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Xmara » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:52 am



Did you just cite the Onion? A satirical news site?

Anyway, I just want the elections to be over with. I’m so sick of the political TV ads and my mailbox being stuffed with ads.
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Thuzbekistan
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Ex-Nation

Postby Thuzbekistan » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:11 am

Xmara wrote:


Did you just cite the Onion? A satirical news site?

Anyway, I just want the elections to be over with. I’m so sick of the political TV ads and my mailbox being stuffed with ads.

Yes, he cited it as a joke...
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:13 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Conserative Morality wrote:"hurr hurr remember 2016 when the polls were right and Hillary and Trump got about the percentages they were supposed to"


>85% probability of Hillary winning
>"polls were right"

'Scuse me what?


Those aren't polls, ffs. The polls had correct information and were off by a point or two on average, a margin of error, pundits presented this information in a slightly slanted way. You're getting hung up on probability models which are relatively new and more prone to bias than your average poll. Please stop doing that.
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Trumptonium1
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Ex-Nation

Postby Trumptonium1 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:14 am

Here's my final prediction
Image


Possible/likely changes: Pennsylvania to Republicans / Nevada to Republicans / NJ to Republicans
Unlikely changes: Wisconsin to Republicans / Minnesota 2 to Republicans / Arizona to Republicans

Earlier today I went and bet 30 pounds on 57 GOP seats at 18/1. Free Kavanaugh beer on me if I win.

This is only my 6th bet on any election and I'm still waiting for my first bad call despite polls going against me on 4 of 5 times. Could this be the first? Maybe.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:14 am

Painisia wrote:When are we going to get the results? 9 pm?


With the power of modern technology, we can obsess over hour-by-hour live updates from wherever the polls are open!

Iirc the last one closes at around 11PM EST because the West.
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:16 am

Manchin isn't going to lose lol
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Thuzbekistan
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Ex-Nation

Postby Thuzbekistan » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:16 am

Trumptonium1 wrote:Here's my final prediction


Possible/likely changes: Pennsylvania to Republicans / Nevada to Republicans / NJ to Republicans
Unlikely changes: Wisconsin to Republicans / Minnesota 2 to Republicans / Arizona to Republicans

Earlier today I went and bet 30 pounds on 57 GOP seats at 18/1. Free Kavanaugh beer on me if I win.

This is only my 6th bet on any election and I'm still waiting for my first bad call despite polls going against me on 4 of 5 times. Could this be the first? Maybe.

I hope you're wrong about Tennessee. But you're probably right :/
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