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US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:03 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:McSally still has the average lead in polls in Arizona, whilst I'm not super confident in it I kinda think the GOP is gonna hold Arizona.

Eh I’m not sure about that. The last poll has a pretty heavy republican bent to it so I’d take it with a grain of salt. That last poll is the only thing that’s given her a lead average wise
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:09 pm

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Postby Shrillland » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:14 pm

Thermodolia wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo


I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.
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Liriena
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Postby Liriena » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:15 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo


I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:23 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/05/possible-scenarios-election-day-what-theyd-mean/?utm_term=.d9ca4a557551

Interesting article by the WaPo


I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

I agree with that
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY!
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>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:24 pm

Liriena wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
I think 1 and 2 combined are the most likely. A Democratic House and a tight Senate.

Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor
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>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:29 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Liriena wrote:Most plausible outcome, barring substantial polling and forecasting errors.

Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor


Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:32 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor


Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Chaos. Maximum chaos
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY!
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:32 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:Hopefully all errors are in the Democrats favor


Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:33 pm

Valgora wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Who are you and what did you do with the real Thermodolia?

Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY!
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:36 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Valgora wrote:Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

What if we launched a Trident Missile out of a cannon so when it gets into space the engines start?
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:48 pm

Valgora wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too

What if we launched a Trident Missile out of a cannon so when it gets into space the engines start?

Sounds great
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I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:04 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Valgora wrote:Maybe he just wants the number of Democrat to Republican politicians to be as close to 50-50 as possible for when we launch them into the Sun with a cannon.

I was thinking more of a Trident Missile but a cannon works too


Trident, you say?.
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:30 am

Shrillland wrote:It is now after midnight EST. Election Day has begun, so vote! Vote, you bastards! Woe betide you if you don't, plagues of scorpions and famine upon your houses if you don't vote!(not really.)

Polls will close or votes will be counted at(all times EST)
18:00: Indiana EST, Kentucky EST
19:00: Florida EST, Georgia, Indiana CST, Kentucky CST, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia,
19:30: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
20:00: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida CST, Illinois, Kansas CST, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan EST, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota CST, Tennessee, Texas CST
20:30: Arkansas
21:00: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas MST, Louisiana, Michigan CST, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota MST, Texas MST, Wisconsin, Wyoming
22:00: Idaho MST, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota CST, Oregon MST, Utah
23:00: California, Hawaii, Idaho PST, North Dakota MST, Oregon PST, Washington
24:00: Alaska AKST
01:00 Wednesday: Alaska HAST

Holy shit our polls close at 11 here? Geez.

I mean, polls here tend to be "Drop off ballot at ballot box", but yeah.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:35 am

I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.
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Page
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Postby Page » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:42 am

Corrian wrote:I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.


A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.
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Corrian
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Postby Corrian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:50 am

Page wrote:
Corrian wrote:I kind of just want it to be a 50-50 split to see what kind of new insanity that adds to our political landscape.


A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:55 am

Yeah, I guess my money is on Democrat house and Republican senate, it's logical enough.

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.

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Page
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Postby Page » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:03 am

Corrian wrote:
Page wrote:
A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.


I could sift through Manchin's voting record and find out just how often he votes with the Republicans, but instead I will say: If a doctor lost one of every five patients or a pilot crashed every one of twenty planes, you wouldn't want these people to be doctors or pilots. Congress is one of those careers where consistency matters.

The Republicans are a lot better at playing the game. They whip the hell out of their people in Congress, they whip their votes with a cat o' nine tails with rattlesnake fangs on the end. You'll notice not a single Republican voted for Obamacare despite the fact that the bill was tailor made to be "bipartisan", the individual mandate being a conservative idea from Newt Gingrich's House. You'll notice that not a single Republican budged on blocking Merrick Garland from even having a hearing because they decided a President who still had a year in office shouldn't be able to put forward nominees, an imaginary "rule" from nowhere that all Senate Republicans complied with.

It's long past time that the Democrats adopt the Republicans' techniques to make sure everyone in the party does what they're supposed to do. Democrats have better ideas than the Republicans, but the Democrats suck at playing politics.
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Petrasylvania
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Postby Petrasylvania » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:06 am

Page wrote:
Corrian wrote:He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.


I could sift through Manchin's voting record and find out just how often he votes with the Republicans, but instead I will say: If a doctor lost one of every five patients or a pilot crashed every one of twenty planes, you wouldn't want these people to be doctors or pilots. Congress is one of those careers where consistency matters.

The Republicans are a lot better at playing the game. They whip the hell out of their people in Congress, they whip their votes with a cat o' nine tails with rattlesnake fangs on the end. You'll notice not a single Republican voted for Obamacare despite the fact that the bill was tailor made to be "bipartisan", the individual mandate being a conservative idea from Newt Gingrich's House. You'll notice that not a single Republican budged on blocking Merrick Garland from even having a hearing because they decided a President who still had a year in office shouldn't be able to put forward nominees, an imaginary "rule" from nowhere that all Senate Republicans complied with.

It's long past time that the Democrats adopt the Republicans' techniques to make sure everyone in the party does what they're supposed to do. Democrats have better ideas than the Republicans, but the Democrats suck at playing politics.

Most Blue Dogs found out how little the Republicans valued them given a chance to replace them with one of their own. How Manchin hasn't met the same party traitor's fate yet is beyond me.
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Page
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Postby Page » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:07 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.


Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:07 am

Corrian wrote:
Page wrote:
A 50 - 50 split in the Senate means Pence breaks ties and the Republicans win, unless Manchin is still around in which case Pence won't even need to bother, cause he'll vote with the Republicans like he always does. Either way, Republicans win.

IMO the only way to have a Democratic majority in the Senate strong enough to prevent Trump's nominees from getting through, it would have to be minimum a 53 - 47 majority to account for Republican infiltrators who are "officially" Democrats - and that isn't happening this year.

He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

IIRC he votes about 60% of the time with the democrats.
Male, Titoist cultural nationalist, lives somewhere in the Deep South, give me any good Irish, Canadian, or Scottish whiskey and I will be your friend for life. I'm GAY!
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>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:08 am

Page wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.


Hooray for deadlock! Not even sarcastic, I am literally happy for deadlock. It's like a tumor going into remission - we're not cured and that thing is going to come back twice as big in a little while, but for now, it won't be doing anymore damage.


One could argue it does more damage when nothing is getting done.
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Valgora
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Ex-Nation

Postby Valgora » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:09 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:Yeah, I guess my money is on Democrat house and Republican senate, it's logical enough.

It's gonna be political deadlock boogaloo for the next two years though.


Not like much was going to change anyways.
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Kartofian
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Ex-Nation

Postby Kartofian » Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:10 am

Thermodolia wrote:
Corrian wrote:He doesn't "Always vote with Republicans". More so than most, but not always.

And 50-50 split would still lead to an interesting mix if they push just one person to flip.

IIRC he votes about 60% of the time with the democrats.

Nope
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/joe-manchin-iii/
Trump score
How often Manchin votes in line with Trump's position -- 60.8%

Edit: got confused
Last edited by Kartofian on Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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