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US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

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Hakons
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Moralistic Democracy

Postby Hakons » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:42 pm

Ngelmish wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
I really could see it going either way tbh


Oh, so could I, but as someone who votes and is otherwise active in Indiana politics, if I have to make a call one way or the other, I'm calling it for Donnelly.


Indiana voters let's go :)

I would put this as a pure toss-up. Somewhat unrelated, Trump had a rally in Ft. Wayne (largest city in my home district)
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The South Falls
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Postby The South Falls » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:43 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Who said Beto was that far left?


For Texas he absolutely is. Running on things Medicare For All, guns bans, total support for abortion etc etc isn't exactly a winning platform for a southern state.

Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.
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Hakons
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Postby Hakons » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:45 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
For Texas he absolutely is. Running on things Medicare For All, guns bans, total support for abortion etc etc isn't exactly a winning platform for a southern state.

Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:46 pm

Hakons wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong


They are, the Texan economy is doing fantastic.
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Postby Tobleste » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:46 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
For Texas he absolutely is. Running on things Medicare For All, guns bans, total support for abortion etc etc isn't exactly a winning platform for a southern state.

Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


Afaik, even most republican voters back Medicare for All (at least in theory) according to polls.
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The South Falls
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Postby The South Falls » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:49 pm

Hakons wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong

It was booming under Ann Richards, but you're correct.

Cali/NY/Texas are the triplet.

But, anyway, I would think that things like "school choice way over public schools" are hard to swallow.
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Postby Conserative Morality » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:50 pm

Hakons wrote:
The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong

They're one of the fastest growing in terms of GDP.

In terms of GDP per capita growth, they're average.
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Postby Greater vakolicci haven » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:51 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Hakons wrote:
The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong

It was booming under Ann Richards, but you're correct.

Cali/NY/Texas are the triplet.

But, anyway, I would think that things like "school choice way over public schools" are hard to swallow.

How can people think school choice is bad
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The South Falls
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Postby The South Falls » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:51 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Hakons wrote:
The Texas economy has been booming under Republican policies. I think they're the fastest growing state, though I might be wrong


They are, the Texan economy is doing fantastic.

In some places.

You're correct when oil prices aren't being manipulated, or oil isn't below $40 a barrel.
Last edited by The South Falls on Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The South Falls
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Postby The South Falls » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:52 pm

Greater vakolicci haven wrote:
The South Falls wrote:It was booming under Ann Richards, but you're correct.

Cali/NY/Texas are the triplet.

But, anyway, I would think that things like "school choice way over public schools" are hard to swallow.

How can people think school choice is bad

When you're using the money for public schools (where most go) to fund schools that less people go to, then it becomes a problem.
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Greater vakolicci haven
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Postby Greater vakolicci haven » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:54 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Greater vakolicci haven wrote:How can people think school choice is bad

When you're using the money for public schools (where most go) to fund schools that less people go to, then it becomes a problem.

Or, you know, properly fund all education. That shit is important.
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“I predict future happiness for Americans, if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.” - Thomas Jefferson
“Silent acquiescence in the face of tyranny is no better than outright agreement." - C.J. Redwine
“The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." - Jeff Cooper

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Telconi
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Ex-Nation

Postby Telconi » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:54 pm

Tobleste wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


Afaik, even most republican voters back Medicare for All (at least in theory) according to polls.


And yet when it shows up in practice, it gets shot canned even by Dems.
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:55 pm

Greater vakolicci haven wrote:
The South Falls wrote:When you're using the money for public schools (where most go) to fund schools that less people go to, then it becomes a problem.

Or, you know, properly fund all education. That shit is important.


Yes, because raising property taxes to pay for vouchers and a comparable public option will go over so well.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:56 pm

Telconi wrote:
Tobleste wrote:
Afaik, even most republican voters back Medicare for All (at least in theory) according to polls.


And yet when it shows up in practice, it gets shot canned even by Dems.


Because calling it "Medicare for All" is suicidal. It needs a more inconspicuous name.

"Happy Health Bill Yay" is my suggestion.
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Greater vakolicci haven
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Postby Greater vakolicci haven » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:56 pm

Valrifell wrote:
Greater vakolicci haven wrote:Or, you know, properly fund all education. That shit is important.


Yes, because raising property taxes to pay for vouchers and a comparable public option will go over so well.

I admit, the American tax system isn't something I know a whole lot about.
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“Silent acquiescence in the face of tyranny is no better than outright agreement." - C.J. Redwine
“The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." - Jeff Cooper

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The South Falls
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Postby The South Falls » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:56 pm

Greater vakolicci haven wrote:
The South Falls wrote:When you're using the money for public schools (where most go) to fund schools that less people go to, then it becomes a problem.

Or, you know, properly fund all education. That shit is important.

*Might include public schools*
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Hakons
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Moralistic Democracy

Postby Hakons » Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:59 pm

Telconi wrote:
Tobleste wrote:
Afaik, even most republican voters back Medicare for All (at least in theory) according to polls.


And yet when it shows up in practice, it gets shot canned even by Dems.


With all the hype around a single payer option, there is an amazing lack of any political majority in the foreseeable future ever taking it up.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:01 pm

Valrifell wrote:
Telconi wrote:
And yet when it shows up in practice, it gets shot canned even by Dems.


Because calling it "Medicare for All" is suicidal. It needs a more inconspicuous name.

"Happy Health Bill Yay" is my suggestion.


The "Yay" part is overselling it.
Just call it "Happy Healthy Bill" if you want an inconspicuous name.
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Postby Major-Tom » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:05 pm

While we're all making predictions, here are mine. Nate Silver himself came by and said they looked great.

House: 226D, 209R, Dems regain control narrowly, only sustain a few losses (MN's Duluth district comes to mind)

Senate: 51-49 R, no real change as Dems pick up Nevada and squeak in a super, super narrow win in AZ (48.5-48.0) or something like that. Dems lose ND and MO at the same time (by 3-4 points in ND and 1-2 points in MO. Dems manage to hold on by 1-2 points in FL, MT & IN, and by bigger 3-6 point margins in WV, OH.

If I had to guesstimate the margins of victory (going by intervals of .5%) in the swing Senate seats, I would say as follows;

AZ: 48.5% (D) & 48.0% (R) (possibly lower margin of victory here).
NV: 49.0% (D) & 47.5% (R).
MT: 48.5% (D) & 47.5% (R), I expect Tester's winning margin to be smaller than some expect.
FL: 49.5% (D) & 48.0% (R).
TX: 50.0% (R) & 47.0% (D).
IN: 49.0% (D) & 47.0% (R).
TN: 50.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).
MO: 49.0% (R) & 48.0% (D).
ND: 51.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).

This is all, of course, speculation.
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:23 pm

Tobleste wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Yea, maybe drop the guns and abortion. Support those later. How about economic, bread and butter campaigns.


Afaik, even most republican voters back Medicare for All (at least in theory) according to polls.

Medicare for all needs to die. Along with Medicare and Medicaid
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Postby Telconi » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:24 pm

Valgora wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
Because calling it "Medicare for All" is suicidal. It needs a more inconspicuous name.

"Happy Health Bill Yay" is my suggestion.


The "Yay" part is overselling it.
Just call it "Happy Healthy Bill" if you want an inconspicuous name.


I think the price tag is generally the issue.
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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:26 pm

I think the democrats will hold all current seats except for ND which will be a R pickup

And the democrats will pick up both NV and AZ for a net gain of Dem +1. 50-50 is my prediction.

In the house I’m predicting 230D-205R
Last edited by Thermodolia on Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:31 pm

Major-Tom wrote:While we're all making predictions, here are mine. Nate Silver himself came by and said they looked great.

House: 226D, 209R, Dems regain control narrowly, only sustain a few losses (MN's Duluth district comes to mind)

Senate: 51-49 R, no real change as Dems pick up Nevada and squeak in a super, super narrow win in AZ (48.5-48.0) or something like that. Dems lose ND and MO at the same time (by 3-4 points in ND and 1-2 points in MO. Dems manage to hold on by 1-2 points in FL, MT & IN, and by bigger 3-6 point margins in WV, OH.

If I had to guesstimate the margins of victory (going by intervals of .5%) in the swing Senate seats, I would say as follows;

AZ: 48.5% (D) & 48.0% (R) (possibly lower margin of victory here).
NV: 49.0% (D) & 47.5% (R).
MT: 48.5% (D) & 47.5% (R), I expect Tester's winning margin to be smaller than some expect.
FL: 49.5% (D) & 48.0% (R).
TX: 50.0% (R) & 47.0% (D).
IN: 49.0% (D) & 47.0% (R).
TN: 50.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).
MO: 49.0% (R) & 48.0% (D).
ND: 51.5% (R) & 47.5% (D).

This is all, of course, speculation.

There's just one too few competitive races for the Dems to nab the majority in the Senate. ND, TN, TX appear to be going for the Republicans, so even if the Dems manage to sweep AZ, NV, MT, FL, IN, WV, OH, and MO, they're still probably looking at a 50/50 split.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:32 pm

Telconi wrote:
Valgora wrote:
The "Yay" part is overselling it.
Just call it "Happy Healthy Bill" if you want an inconspicuous name.


I think the price tag is generally the issue.

The price tag without it is also an issue. I think with smart spending choice elsewhere, we'd be able to afford it just fine.
But the name is usually an issue for some people, so rewording could change people's perception of stuff.
However, I'm not entirely sure how Medicare for All would work, because I don't know how Medicare itself works beyond being for seniors.

Thermodolia wrote:I think the democrats will hold all current seats except for ND which will be a R pickup

And the democrats will pick up both NV and AZ for a net gain of Dem +1. 50-50 is my prediction.

In the house I’m predicting 230D-205R

I personally think it'll be 49 D - 51 R in the Senate.
I think the House will be closer than 230 - 205, but I agree that the Democrats will gain a majority in the House.
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Postby Idzequitch » Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:34 pm

Thermodolia wrote:I think the democrats will hold all current seats except for ND which will be a R pickup

And the democrats will pick up both NV and AZ for a net gain of Dem +1. 50-50 is my prediction.

In the house I’m predicting 230D-205R

I guess if that happens, Pence will have to really earn his paycheck.
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