US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

[Farnhamia]

So anyway ...

Here are links to the source Morgantown WV used in the previous OPs:

House: https://insideelections.com/ratings/house (Republicans have a 240-195 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats for a majority. Most likely outcome: Democratic gain of 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible.)

Senate: https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate (Republicans have a 51-49 majority. Outlook: No net change to GOP +3.)

Governorships: https://insideelections.com/ratings/governor (Republicans currently control 33 governorships to Democrats’ 16, with one Independent in Alaska.Democrats most likely to gain 6-8 governorships, but greater gains are possible.)

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

Please don't tell me you voted for Beto lol

[San Lumen]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politi ... 823855002/
Republican nominee for Governor of Michigan Bill Schuette has cancelled all tv ads outside of the Detroit metro area.
This sounds like a admission of loss to me or Bill Schuette access to internal polling that he is going to win every county in Michigan despite being down double digits and wants to pad his margin by winning Wayne County.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

Please don't tell me you voted for Beto lol

I may or may not have voted for Neal Dikeman.

I just wasn't going to vote for Cruz tho. I can't vote for someone I don't respect.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

[San Lumen]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.

[Valrifell]

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.

Pence would have to earn his paycheck.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Thank you, Farn.

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

The fact he managed to hold on to his Republican base is even more impressive considering the fact you would have expected him to be primaried out of office.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.

The problem is that if Heitkamp loses, which is likely, there is a good chance that McCaskill could be in danger of being tossed too.
The situation seems to have stabilized for Nelson in Florida, but polls for the Democrats are lukewarm at best for Nevada and Arizona.

[Valrifell]

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.

I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.

[San Lumen]

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.

The problem is that if Heitkamp loses, which is likely, there is a good chance that McCaskill could be in danger of being tossed too.
The situation seems to have stabilized for Nelson in Florida, but polls for the Democrats are lukewarm at best for Nevada and Arizona.

Yet early voting looks very good for Democrats there. Nevada is the only state where its predictive.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.

I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.

With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

[San Lumen]

I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.

With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?

[Valrifell]

With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?

It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?

I don't think it could, to be fair.

I mean, the only big city that could do so is Houston if they unanimously threw their weight behind O'Rourke.

That's not gonna happen. Austin and El Paso combined can't even begin to deal with how many voters we have in DFW alone as a matter of "offsetting" anything, let alone deal with all the rural areas over here that vote unanimously or with wide margins red.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?

It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.

I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.

[San Lumen]

It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.

I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.

Isn;t Austin and El Paso overwhelmingly Democratic?

[San Lumen]

So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.

In addition to Nelson, Gillum looks to be holding a solid lead as well. If he wins I cannot see Nelson losing.

Plus regarding Ohio it is looking like a decent possibility Democrats win every statewide office which would be huge.

In a run off in Georgia I wouldn't be so sure of that.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.

In addition to Nelson, Gillum looks to be holding a solid lead as well. If he wins I cannot see Nelson losing.

Plus regarding Ohio it is looking like a decent possibility Democrats win every statewide office which would be huge.

In a run off in Georgia I wouldn't be so sure of that.

If neither win outright, the runoff would come down to the ~3% of voters who voted for neither candidate, and the ability of each campaign to turn out the vote of their core supporters a second time.

I doubt many Metz groupies will be thrilled with either, but I can see more breaking for Kemp than Abrams.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.

Isn;t Austin and El Paso overwhelmingly Democratic?

Not really, they are more or less like Dallas in that it tips Democrat, but it's not overwhelmingly tilted to vote Democrat yet.

Tho Austin is starting to lean that way, it's not so yet.

[Thuzbekistan]

Yay! New thread

In relevant news, marsha blackburn has gained 5 points in TN. Hopefully, Bredesen gets back in the game come election day.

[Post War America]

Yay! New thread

In relevant news, marsha blackburn has gained 5 points in TN. Hopefully, Bredesen gets back in the game come election day.

I doubt it'll happen in the current political climate. Its a shame though given that Bredesen wasn't terrible for a Red State Democrat.