Jerzylvania wrote:You have the Bills scoring 35 points? With Nathan Peterman at QB? On the Ravens D in Baltimore? And winning 35-9? I think you fucked up here.
538 has the Ravens at 64% prob for the win, but hey, that's why they play the games.
BTW, I think it might rain Sunday.
Good luck.
Since you asked, xkoranate is a type of RNG with weighted dice - it's not gonna be completely accurate.
To add to my sins:
- The Bills' Elo is 1502. The Ravens' Elo is 1535.
- The Bills' deviation from mediocrity (1500) is only +2. The Ravens'? +35 (a difference of 33 Elo).
Theoretically on a scale of 0-3000, you'd be absolutely right to expect a score to be much closer (and the Ravens to win)!
We're lucky the NFL doesn't completely rely on RNG. On that note, look at tonight's game. The Elo matchup is a little more skewed (in favour of the Eagles, by 46). I have the Falcons winning 10-3. They were up 6-3 at the half now.
The bottom line:
Elo does not tell all!NOTE: Both the Falcons and Eagles (by way of performance over the last 2 seasons, mostly) have Elo well above the NFL average, so you'd expect something close.
But I'm still as surprised as you are that xkoranate cranked out a 35-9 win for the Bills. I'd be equally as surprised if the Bills win by ONE.