Spain - Possible problems on the Horizon

[Rio Cana]

Just found out that the socialist PM of Spain Pedro Sánchez, who by the way was appointed not elected, has signed a decree for Franco to be removed from the mountain they currently keep him.

Currently, PM Pedro Sánchez government is being held up via coalition. One coalition group is made up of the Catalans. This in itself is a problem since his own party was against Catalan independence. Then we have the PM easing of illegal immigration from Africa into Spain. Currently, some Spanish entry points in Africa are being somewhat overwhelmed. And now we have this decree. Whats next, the monarchy.

Seems he should be concentrating on the economy. We all know Turkey has been having economic problems. They even sold 50% of there US debt for cash. But they say this is only a temporary fix. What does this have to do with Spain is that in the EU. Spanish banks have the most invested in Turkey. From 5% to 6% of Spanish GDP is invested in Turkey.

I think he is biting more then he can chew which means his government will not be lasting long Instead of decreeing, why not have public referendums. What do the people want not what he wants. I think Spain could be heading more to the right. After all, economically Spain is not France, Germany or the UK. no matter how they try.

Read its really short - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spai ... -zsv9fcq9c

[Baltenstein]

Spain, Spain, of all the possible places to do risky investments, you chose Turkey? What would King Felipe II. say?

With that being said, I don't see Spain facing some sort of imminent crisis. The various topics the OP adresses are not immediately connected, and I don't see why moving some dictator's bones from point A to point B should cause much upheaval.

[Indo-Malaysia]

As much of a dick that Franco was, he should remain in his mausoleum. To move him would be an insult to history.

Why would someone be so twisted as to want to disturb the dead?

[Uxupox]

spain is now the sick man of europe.

[Rio Cana]

Spain, Spain, of all the possible places to do risky investments, you chose Turkey? What would King Felipe II. say?

With that being said, I don't see Spain facing some sort of imminent crisis. The various topics the OP adresses are not immediately connected, and I don't see why moving some dictator's bones from point A to point B should cause much upheaval.

This little thing could be the straw that breaks the camels back. It could reignite old hatreds especially in an atmosphere where some in Spain think things are going wrong.

Will be changing poll.

[Baltenstein]

spain is now the sick man of europe.

Actually, that title has officially returned to its original owner on the Bosporus.

[Uxupox]

spain is now the sick man of europe.

Actually, that title has officially returned to its original owner on the Bosporus.

They are being hit pretty hard tbh but it's not really going to destroy them completely.

Unlike Spain which is facing real dangers of being fragmented as a nation.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

Moving Franco is irrelevant, although historical revisionism like that is idiotic. The other issues, however, those do give me pause.

[Vivolkha]

Despite the easing of migratory policies, Spain still has expelled 100+ immigrants who "violently" entered the country through Ceuta (Spanish African territory).
The Socialist Party (PSOE) still "supports" the monarchy (while theoretically republican, it supports the 1978 Constitution and by extension the monarchy), and it rejected a referendum on the issue after Juan Carlos I abdicated.

Honestly though from here it always seems like Spain has problems on the horizon as I feel there's a lack of political will for much-needed political and economic reforms.

[Angleter]

A government with 84 deputies out of 350 isn't exactly on the surest ground.

[Freezic Vast]

Repeat of the mid to late 30s for Spain???

[Vistulange]

A country is experiencing problems.

Water is wet.

[Arcanda]

Nothing will happen. Why do you think Spain will go to the right? They lack any of the big populist parties most euro countries have (ie: AfD, LdN, FN, the party of that Austrian boy prime minister...).

If anything, and from a non-expert point of view, it seems like Spain is trying its best to be as far left as possible lately, perhaps to deny their francoist heritage. I also noticed this pattern in former right-wing dictatorships like Chile.

Anyhow, the decision to move Franco from his grave is a highly dishonorable one. You don't toy with the dead. It's a shame. Yes, I know people died under Franco's regime. Still a leader deserves peace once he's passed.

[Saiwania]

The single greatest threat to Spain are those African immigrants. They should be rounded up, deported, and kept out. Only a militarized border can accomplish those objectives in my view. You ignore those people, and you'll have another Cologne incident.

[Trumptonium1]

spain is now the sick man of europe.

Actually, that title has officially returned to its original owner on the Bosporus.

No it hasn't. Turkey has problems, but Turkey is moving forward.

The Sick Man of Europe is pretty objectively Italy, and it will stay that way until someone does something about it. This country went from the second wealthiest in Europe and the fourth largest in the world to on par with the Czech Republic in a space of 25 years.

Case in point: PwC estimates that Turkey and Italy will have identical GDP per capita in 2050; just a $1000 below Russia.

[Trumptonium1]

Just found out that the socialist PM of Spain Pedro Sánchez, who by the way was appointed not elected, has signed a decree for Franco to be removed from the mountain they currently keep him.

History is written by the victors. I'd be hypocritical if I disagreed, since I wholeheartedly support the mass destruction (by legal action or not) of monuments dedicated to communism/lenin/stalin et al. in the eastern bloc.

Currently, PM Pedro Sánchez government is being held up via coalition. One coalition group is made up of the Catalans. This in itself is a problem since his own party was against Catalan independence.

This is not a problem unless the Catalans engage in some power play, which is unlikely as they know they'll overplay their hand because much of their support was taken by Ciudadanos.

Then we have the PM easing of illegal immigration from Africa into Spain. Currently, some Spanish entry points in Africa are being somewhat overwhelmed.

Somewhat is a little under exaggerated. Many Spanish towns are complaining that they desperately need extra police and coast guard funding.

Seems he should be concentrating on the economy. We all know Turkey has been having economic problems. They even sold 50% of there US debt for cash. But they say this is only a temporary fix. What does this have to do with Spain is that in the EU. Spanish banks have the most invested in Turkey. From 5% to 6% of Spanish GDP is invested in Turkey.

Spain can afford to take their eyes off the economy for now. They are doing reasonably well, and unlike 1999-2009, this growth spurt seems to not be focused on the elderly migrating to the sun with cash or on tourism, there's industrial and services growth. Unemployment is falling, inflation is under control and production growth is very good.

Granted, much of this growth is from finance, courtesy of Spanish banks (particularly Santander) overextending safety limits by growing in CEE and Turkey, but we'll see what comes of this. Apart from Turkey, the investments they have made in CEE are paying off. Most eastern EU countries are bracing for a slowdown in the coming 2-3 years, Poland can't grow at 5% forever, but sound economic management (mostly on the monetary side, the markets don't trust populist fiscal policies being able to restrain themselves just yet) will make way for a soft landing.

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As for Spanish politics going right, I don't think society will pull to the right per se. What I do think is that some people on the left may start supporting PP in efforts of pushing Spanish unity and stopping the deadlock over the country. I also think that an increasing portion of the vote will go to Vox, giving Spain its own version of LegaNord et al.

There's no reason Spain is immune to European political trends.

Vox currently commands around 2-3% of the vote, giving them anywhere between 550k to 750k votes on the last few turnouts. This is enough to get a seat in the lower house, and perhaps even more than that. A half-million core base is a good base to launch their campaign from for the next Spanish election in some 5-8 years time. Although I think Vox is doing the wrong thing by no-platforming Catalonia and refusing to field candidates there - it's even more likely that Catalonian PP supporters would go for Vox than anywhere else in the country. That's the place they should start campaigning from.

3-4.5% appears to be a goldilocks zone - those are all the results that Lega Nord, UKIP and AfD got before they became much larger in the subsequent election. They just need the base to move forward from.

Vox is currently polling more for next year's European election - just under 5%, which would give them an MEP seat and potentially a million votes, as well as cementing their place in the top 5 Spanish parties by vote. That's a very good base. They're also very urban just like Lega Nord - their core support comes from the capital Madrid. They received 3.64% of the vote in the 2014 European elections in the city, becoming the fourth largest party. That means at levels of 5% based on the 2014 election, Vox should be looking at 10-12.5% of the vote in Madrid next year.

Vox is something to watch.

[Rio Cana]

VOX is economically liberal but socially conservative. They have gone to events which has involved some of Europeans more right-leaning leaders.

[Vivolkha]

From an insider's perspective, I do think Spain is turning to the right - just not as much as other European countries. Granted - there are no popular right-wing populist parties in Spain (yet). But under the new leadership of Pablo Casado after the ouster of Mariano Rajoy, the Popular Party (PP) has shifted further to the right, bringing back immigration policies to public attention (they had been largely overshadowed by the constitutional crisis). Ciudadanos' rethoric has also harshened noticeably in recent years, though it is no extremist party at all, nor is the PP.

That's just the general political landscape, as the PSOE government is a center-left one, and it is mainly backed by the left-wing Podemos (frequently described as populist). Due to its weak position (84/350 MPs) and upcoming elections (2020 at latest) with Ciudadanos polling strongly, it has attempted to pass as many reforms as possible to build electoral support. Thus the perception that Spain is turning as much to the left as possible.

[Parti Ouvrier]

From an insider's perspective, I do think Spain is turning to the right - just not as much as other European countries. Granted - there are no popular right-wing populist parties in Spain (yet). But under the new leadership of Pablo Casado after the ouster of Mariano Rajoy, the Popular Party (PP) has shifted further to the right, bringing back immigration policies to public attention (they had been largely overshadowed by the constitutional crisis). Ciudadanos' rethoric has also harshened noticeably in recent years, though it is no extremist party at all, nor is the PP.

That's just the general political landscape, as the PSOE government is a center-left one, and it is mainly backed by the left-wing Podemos (frequently described as populist). Due to its weak position (84/350 MPs) and upcoming elections (2020 at latest) with Ciudadanos polling strongly, it has attempted to pass as many reforms as possible to build electoral support. Thus the perception that Spain is turning as much to the left as possible.

All the parties in Spain are moving right, including the hapless Podemos.

[New Excalibus]

Jeez, as if they weren't in enough trouble with Catalonia.

[Parti Ouvrier]

Just found out that the socialist PM of Spain Pedro Sánchez, who by the way was appointed not elected,

Read its really short - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spai ... -zsv9fcq9c

Spain elects a political party, not presidents, however, I'm surprised the PP didn't do what happened in Australia recently, and just voted to replace Rajoy with another PP leader and thus become the new PM.

[Valrifell]

spain is now the sick man of europe.

It's been that way since the 16th century, though.

[Nanatsu no Tsuki]

From an insider's perspective, I do think Spain is turning to the right - just not as much as other European countries. Granted - there are no popular right-wing populist parties in Spain (yet). But under the new leadership of Pablo Casado after the ouster of Mariano Rajoy, the Popular Party (PP) has shifted further to the right, bringing back immigration policies to public attention (they had been largely overshadowed by the constitutional crisis). Ciudadanos' rethoric has also harshened noticeably in recent years, though it is no extremist party at all, nor is the PP.

That's just the general political landscape, as the PSOE government is a center-left one, and it is mainly backed by the left-wing Podemos (frequently described as populist). Due to its weak position (84/350 MPs) and upcoming elections (2020 at latest) with Ciudadanos polling strongly, it has attempted to pass as many reforms as possible to build electoral support. Thus the perception that Spain is turning as much to the left as possible.

All the parties in Spain are moving right, including the hapless Podemos.

Not surprising, with all the issues pending.

[Greed and Death]

Sounds like the military in Spain needs to take charge against Franco's work of Protecting Spain from the left seems unfinished. *NOD*

[NS Miami Shores]

Sounds like the military in Spain needs to take charge against Franco's work of Protecting Spain from the left seems unfinished. *NOD*

lol, we agree, I do hope España La Madre Patria goes back to the right where it belongs.