US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Tobleste]

Is that not the case already?

It is...this is just one of those symbolic amendments like banning Sharia law and the like for the most part. North Dakota, however, is unique in that they don't actually register people to vote so....no, it's symbolic nonsense.

Ah ok. Thanks.

[San Lumen]

How does that even work?

Well, North Dakota ended it on the state level in 1951, though the bigger cities like Bismarck, Fargo, Minot and the like still have voter rolls of their own. The official position of the state is that since it's so rural and precincts are fairly small even by the standards of such a sparsely populated state, all the election judges will know all of the voters already and have no need for a registration roll. They do require ID at the polls, but that's all.

But if someone moves to the state how do they even know they are a legal resident or eligible to vote?

[Shrillland]

Well, North Dakota ended it on the state level in 1951, though the bigger cities like Bismarck, Fargo, Minot and the like still have voter rolls of their own. The official position of the state is that since it's so rural and precincts are fairly small even by the standards of such a sparsely populated state, all the election judges will know all of the voters already and have no need for a registration roll. They do require ID at the polls, but that's all.

But if someone moves to the state how do they even know they are a legal resident or eligible to vote?

All they ask for is a state ID or tribal ID at the polls and that's enough for them. And as I said, the bigger cities and counties do have voter rolls and registration for their municipal elections including some of the areas where the shale boom had hit. Once you've voted, your name and address get put onto the state's voter database within 45 days.

[San Lumen]

But if someone moves to the state how do they even know they are a legal resident or eligible to vote?

All they ask for is a state ID or tribal ID at the polls and that's enough for them. And as I said, the bigger cities and counties do have voter rolls and registration for their municipal elections including some of the areas where the shale boom had hit. Once you've voted, your name and address get put onto the state's voter database within 45 days.

I dont follow. You just said the state doesn't register people to vote.

[Petrasylvania]

University says GOP Florida House candidate faked her diploma: report

School officials said a Republican candidate running for the GOP nomination in a Florida legislative seat lied about graduating from Miami University in Ohio and faked her diploma, according to a new report.

Melissa Howard, who wants a Sarasota-area state House seat, claimed that she earned a Bachelor of Science in Marketing from the Ohio school.

Florida political news website FLA News Online originally reported that Howard did not earn the degree, but briefly retracted their story after Howard provided a photo posing with a copy of her diploma.

But after further investigation and confirmation with the university, FLA News reported Saturday that the diploma was fake.

Sarasota's Herald-Tribune confirmed with the university that Howard did not graduate.

Miami University general counsel Robin Parker told the outlets that while Howard attended the university, there is no record of her earning a degree in 1994 or 1996, as she previously claimed.

The school also reportedly said that they do not offer a Bachelor of Science in Marketing, and that Howard would have earned a Bachelor of Science in Family and Consumer Sciences if she had graduated with her Retailing major.

The diploma in the photo also reportedly displays signatures of university officials who would not have signed a diploma for a student graduating with a bachelor's degree in that year.

National Student Clearinghouse, the nonprofit group that works with Miami University and originally stated Howard did not earn her degree, sent FLA News a certificate from the university stating that Howard did not earn a degree.

Howard has not commented on the new report to FLA News. She called the original allegations "lies" pushed by her Republican primary opponent, Tommy Gregory, in the race for a seat long held by the GOP.

"Instead of providing evidence refuting the direct questions raised in the story, Ms. Howard chose to pivot and attack the Gregory campaign for lying about her record," Gregory said in a response, according to FloridaPolitics.com. "On the contrary, however, the Tommy Gregory campaign has made no statement of any kind related to the article, and while Ms. Howard may have some explaining to do, we will leave that to her, the media, and the voters of District 73."

Oh oh...

[Thermodolia]

All they ask for is a state ID or tribal ID at the polls and that's enough for them. And as I said, the bigger cities and counties do have voter rolls and registration for their municipal elections including some of the areas where the shale boom had hit. Once you've voted, your name and address get put onto the state's voter database within 45 days.

I dont follow. You just said the state doesn't register people to vote.

Creating a database isn’t the same as registration.

[Shrillland]

I dont follow. You just said the state doesn't register people to vote.

Creating a database isn’t the same as registration.

Exactly. The database used is supposedly refreshed each year as DMV changes and vital statistics records are sent to the state, so they do have some idea of what turnout should look like. But they don't register people beforehand because they see it as an expensive and unnecessary hurdle that just gets in the way. Here's a page from the state of ND that explains it: https://vip.sos.nd.gov/pdfs/Portals/votereg.pdf

[Shrillland]

Polls are now closed in Hawaii.

[Shrillland]

And we here are the calls over three hours:

GOP HI-Senate: Ron Curtis
GOP HI-Governor: Andria Tupola
Dem HI-Governor: David Ige
GOP HI-1(Honolulu): Cam Cavasso
Dem HI-1(Honolulu): Ed Case
Dem HI-2(Hawaii): Tulsi Gabbard

And that's the night. Or morning.

[Guy]

A real shame no one stepped up against Gabbard - by far the worst member of the House Democratic caucus. I’d support Dan Lipinski for Speaker before I back her for re-election.

[Shrillland]

A real shame no one stepped up against Gabbard - by far the worst member of the House Democratic caucus. I’d support Dan Lipinski for Speaker before I back her for re-election.

She did have two challengers, one actually got support from the state Teachers union because of Gabbard's realpolitik going too far, but neither fared well tonight.

[Guy]

A real shame no one stepped up against Gabbard - by far the worst member of the House Democratic caucus. I’d support Dan Lipinski for Speaker before I back her for re-election.

She did have two challengers, one actually got support from the state Teachers union because of Gabbard's realpolitik going too far, but neither fared well tonight.

Who raised a staggering $27,500, compared to Gabbard’s $2 million warchest. There’s standing and there’s stepping up.

[Outer Sparta]

She did have two challengers, one actually got support from the state Teachers union because of Gabbard's realpolitik going too far, but neither fared well tonight.

Who raised a staggering $27,500, compared to Gabbard’s $2 million warchest. There’s standing and there’s stepping up.

Gabbard is a fake progressive. I rather prefer generic centrist Dems to her.

[Triassica]

Who raised a staggering $27,500, compared to Gabbard’s $2 million warchest. There’s standing and there’s stepping up.

Gabbard is a fake progressive. I rather prefer generic centrist Dems to her.

Like Obama proved to be a fake progressive?

[Outer Sparta]

Gabbard is a fake progressive. I rather prefer generic centrist Dems to her.

Like Obama proved to be a fake progressive?

Like I said, Obama >>>>>>> Gabbard anyday. He might be closer to the center, but Gabbard is way too controversial to merit any high-ranking positions.

[Major-Tom]

And we here are the calls over three hours:

GOP HI-Senate: Ron Curtis
GOP HI-Governor: Andria Tupola
Dem HI-Governor: David Ige
GOP HI-1(Honolulu): Cam Cavasso
Dem HI-1(Honolulu): Ed Case
Dem HI-2(Hawaii): Tulsi Gabbard

And that's the night. Or morning.

Shame it's Ige and not Hanabusa.

[Cannot think of a name]

The Democratic primaries have a theme song...(no they don't, carry on)

But it does turn out that women are doing well in Democratic primaries...

According to our data, women have won 65 percent (90 of 138) of decided open Democratic primary races featuring at least one man and one woman. About 46 percent of all women who ran for office won the nomination — a stat we’ll call “win rate.” Men’s win rate has been just 23 percent (although part of their lower win rate is simply that more male candidates are competing against each other and, obviously, only one person can win each race). Women make up 48 percent (114 out of 2384) of the Democratic nominees in primaries that have been decided so far even though only 32 percent (263 of 811) of the candidates we analyzed were women. So, women are clearly having greater success than men.

In fact, all else being equal, being a woman has been worth an additional 10 percentage points over being a man in the open Democratic primaries we looked at.x

Experience is also a factor:

All else being equal, having held elected office before has given candidates a 12-point boost, on average, in vote share in open Democratic primaries. That’s the biggest such boost we found for any variable. Experienced politicians have an impressive 44 percent win rate; political novices clock in at 28 percent.

That's apparently pretty standard, which makes sense.

Overall, Democratic primary voters in 2018 are jumping at the chance to nominate women and experienced politicians. Being an Obama alum seems to help too. No variable we looked at appeared to seriously harm a candidate’s chances in a primary (except maybe STEM training), although several — military service, race, LGBTQ status and self-funding — don’t appear to help.

[San Lumen]

Gabbard is a fake progressive. I rather prefer generic centrist Dems to her.

Like Obama proved to be a fake progressive?

Seriously your attacking Obama now? If you want to wonder why Democrats lose elections this is part of it. Republicans fall in line like sheep and Democrats dont unite.

[Valrifell]

Like Obama proved to be a fake progressive?

Seriously your attacking Obama now? If you want to wonder why Democrats lose elections this is part of it. Republicans fall in line like sheep and Democrats dont unite.

Just like the Spanish Civil War!

[Zex]

The only thing I'm looking forward to, this midterm, are all the crying comps and violent protests that will be posted to youtube.

[Corrian]

Like Obama proved to be a fake progressive?

Seriously your attacking Obama now? If you want to wonder why Democrats lose elections this is part of it. Republicans fall in line like sheep and Democrats dont unite.

Well, Obama was a fake progressive.

[San Lumen]

Seriously your attacking Obama now? If you want to wonder why Democrats lose elections this is part of it. Republicans fall in line like sheep and Democrats dont unite.

Well, Obama was a fake progressive.

No he wasn't. Who is a real progressive then?

You go nominate someone like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio Cortez in North Dakota or West Virginia but dont cry when they lose the general election.

[Corrian]

No he wasn't. Who is a real progressive then?

Bernie Sanders, probably.

And yes he was. All that hopey changey stuff was quite disappointing.

You go nominate someone like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio Cortez in North Dakota or West Virginia but dont cry when they lose the general election.

I've never once said that those types should be nominated there. I'm well aware they'd lose.

[Cannot think of a name]

Seriously your attacking Obama now? If you want to wonder why Democrats lose elections this is part of it. Republicans fall in line like sheep and Democrats dont unite.

Well, Obama was a fake progressive.

Was he, though, or were people projecting their own ambitions on him and then getting upset that he didn't live up to an ideal he never presented? Seems to me that he always presented himself as a pragmatist, that one of the speeches that rose him to nation providence was the 'purple states' speech, that his main pitch vs. Clinton at the time was she said she was the one who could fight with the Republicans and he would be the one who would work with them. And in fact he followed through on that, it just turned out that the Republicans weren't interested, the clearest case being the oft talked about ACA. He had wanted a single payer system but in a pragmatic gesture to the republicans instead built reform on their fucking idea, which they suddenly acted like it was poison straight from the pits of hell. He would say things like "not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good" and shit like that. I think there's a rift between what people wanted him to be and what he was, but I think that failing is more often in the observer than in him being a 'fake progressive.'

[Valgora]

No he wasn't. Who is a real progressive then?

Bernie Sanders, probably.

And yes he was. All that hopey changey stuff was quite disappointing.

I have to agree honestly.
I didn't really see a whole lot of change. There was some, I'll give him that, but at the end of the day.... I didn't see a whole lot.