US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Freezic Vast]

Kind of like how the Democrats have no way of winning the Senate.

There is a higher chance of them winning the Senate then John Cox has of becoming Governor of California

No there isn't.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Except he's not that extreme as You all say he is.

Facts don't lie

Tbf Cox doesn't seem all that extreme.

Cookie cutter Republican? Maybe, but not extreme.

[The Black Forrest]

Facts don't lie

Cox is not factually extreme ...

Your arguments?

[San Lumen]

There is a higher chance of them winning the Senate then John Cox has of becoming Governor of California

No there isn't.

Actually there is. he is not going to make inroads into the areas of the state needed to win a statewide election

[The Black Forrest]

And you would be wrong. Unless of course you have a source for your argument.

My source is that literally the entire legal field considers it to be one of the worst decisions in history because of how nonsensical it was lol, right on the same level as Korematsu and whatnot.

That is not originalism or textualism then.

[Freezic Vast]

No there isn't.

Actually there is. he is not going to make inroads into the areas of the state needed to win a statewide election

And the Dems are going to in red states, please.

[San Lumen]

Actually there is. he is not going to make inroads into the areas of the state needed to win a statewide election

And the Dems are going to in red states, please.

I guess Casey and Stabenow are going to lose in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Wolf is going to lose as well.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Actually there is. he is not going to make inroads into the areas of the state needed to win a statewide election

And the Dems are going to in red states, please.

I wouldn't be so confident that Dems won't penetrate in red states tbh.

With the proper focus, the state parties have a chance in this political climate.

Of course, this is assuming they care about the issues in red states and provide solutions, which they usually do not.

[The Black Forrest]

Facts don't lie

Tbf Cox doesn't seem all that extreme.

Cookie cutter Republican? Maybe, but not extreme.

Eh? Comments about school choice avoids transvestite teachers? A constitutional amendment defining marriage?

His business comments tend to be cookie cutter.....

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Actually there is. he is not going to make inroads into the areas of the state needed to win a statewide election

And the Dems are going to in red states, please.

FiveThirtyEight is forcasting that the Democrats have a 1 in 6 (18%) chance of winning the Senate back.
They claim Newsom has a 79 in 80 (98.6%) chance of winning in California.

So yes, the Democrats appear, if we trust these numbers, to have a better chance at winning the Senate than Cox has at winning the Governorship.

[Telconi]

Kind of like how the Democrats have no way of winning the Senate.

Now you're just gunning for things to get under his skin.

TBF, this is the guy who responds to unrelated posts with "Well yeah and Gavon Newsom is gonna be your next governor!"

[Soldati Senza Confini]

And the Dems are going to in red states, please.

FiveThirtyEight is forcasting that the Democrats have a 1 in 6 (18%) chance of winning the Senate back.
They claim Newsom has a 79 in 80 (98.6%) chance of winning in California.

So yes, the Democrats appear, if we trust these numbers, to have a better chance at winning the Senate than Cox has at winning the Governorship.

I wouldn't put my money on 538.

[Washington Resistance Army]

My source is that literally the entire legal field considers it to be one of the worst decisions in history because of how nonsensical it was lol, right on the same level as Korematsu and whatnot.

That is not originalism or textualism then.

If something (in this case Plessey) violates the constitution how is it not originalism or textualism to change it :/

[Great Franconia and Verana]

FiveThirtyEight is forcasting that the Democrats have a 1 in 6 (18%) chance of winning the Senate back.
They claim Newsom has a 79 in 80 (98.6%) chance of winning in California.

So yes, the Democrats appear, if we trust these numbers, to have a better chance at winning the Senate than Cox has at winning the Governorship.

I wouldn't put my money on 538.

Do you have a better option?

[Soldati Senza Confini]

Tbf Cox doesn't seem all that extreme.

Cookie cutter Republican? Maybe, but not extreme.

Eh? Comments about school choice avoids transvestite teachers? A constitutional amendment defining marriage?

His business comments tend to be cookie cutter.....

That's not too different from what you hear over here tbh in rural areas inhabited by evangelicals who vote Republican.

I disagree with it all, but it's not too different tbf.

[The Black Forrest]

Now you're just gunning for things to get under his skin.

TBF, this is the guy who responds to unrelated posts with "Well yeah and Gavon Newsom is gonna be your next governor!"

I have to change my account name. Every time I see TBF, I think that is directed at me

[Soldati Senza Confini]

I wouldn't put my money on 538.

Do you have a better option?

I'd say a mix of both right-wing polls and 538 would do it. You have to realize 538 is an aggregator with a bias.

They might say they have no bias, but they do, at least when it comes to their analysis and the weight of polls in their predictions.

[The Black Forrest]

Eh? Comments about school choice avoids transvestite teachers? A constitutional amendment defining marriage?

His business comments tend to be cookie cutter.....

That's not too different from what you hear over here tbh in rural areas inhabited by evangelicals who vote Republican.

I disagree with it all, but it's not too different tbf.

Oh that's true. In general Cali tends to be for the things Cox is against. Reps might have had a chance with a moderate......did one even try to run?

[Soldati Senza Confini]

TBF, this is the guy who responds to unrelated posts with "Well yeah and Gavon Newsom is gonna be your next governor!"

I have to change my account name. Every time I see TBF, I think that is directed at me

That just makes the conversation more interesting in my opinion

[Valrifell]

Do you have a better option?

I'd say a mix of both right-wing polls and 538 would do it. You have to realize 538 is an aggregator with a bias.

They might say they have no bias, but they do, at least when it comes to their analysis and the weight of polls in their predictions.

I tend to mix RCP and 538, doesn't seem to be too bad thus far.

[Great Franconia and Verana]

Do you have a better option?

I'd say a mix of both right-wing polls and 538 would do it. You have to realize 538 is an aggregator with a bias.

They might say they have no bias, but they do, at least when it comes to their analysis and the weight of polls in their predictions.

Do you have an example of this bias?
Not saying they are perfect, but their numbers are usually fairly accurate.

[Soldati Senza Confini]

That's not too different from what you hear over here tbh in rural areas inhabited by evangelicals who vote Republican.

I disagree with it all, but it's not too different tbf.

Oh that's true. In general Cali tends to be for the things Cox is against. Reps might have had a chance with a moderate......did one even try to run?

There were a few in the primary, but they were all defeated against Cox.

[San Lumen]

Oh that's true. In general Cali tends to be for the things Cox is against. Reps might have had a chance with a moderate......did one even try to run?

There were a few in the primary, but they were all defeated against Cox.

Its quite sad a perennial candidate is the best Republicans could muster in California.

[Telconi]

That's not too different from what you hear over here tbh in rural areas inhabited by evangelicals who vote Republican.

I disagree with it all, but it's not too different tbf.

Oh that's true. In general Cali tends to be for the things Cox is against. Reps might have had a chance with a moderate......did one even try to run?

At this point, I don't think it matters, Kashkari was a moderate, and he got soundly beaten by Jerry fucking Brown.

[Major-Tom]

I'd say a mix of both right-wing polls and 538 would do it. You have to realize 538 is an aggregator with a bias.

They might say they have no bias, but they do, at least when it comes to their analysis and the weight of polls in their predictions.

Do you have an example of this bias?
Not saying they are perfect, but their numbers are usually fairly accurate.

Now, I would say. Take for instance their Senate forecast, published on their website. They say McCaskill has a 7/10 chance of winning or something like that, but aggregate polls have her down 4-5 points. Granted, a lot of these polls are from Republican pollsters, but it doesn't negate the fact that her numbers look bad.

538 also has a bad habit of taking a poll and adjusting the margin for "house effect" and other things. YouGov is an example, they have tended to add a +2.4 D for all YouGov polls, even though YouGov is not a biased pollster. They've done the same for a good number of polls, with the only exception really being their own Siena/Upshot polling data.

538 offers fantastic analyses on politics and other topics, but they are far from the best. I mean, they'd classify MO, FL and AZ as "Lean Dem" when they really should be in the firm tossup camp.