US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Corrian]

At most I could see them getting 58. AT MOST. And that doesn't seem likely at all.

That would take anything even vaguely resembling a close race going to the GOP which is... highly unlikely.

This is the best I could get on a map.

I don't see any way it gets better than that.

[Trumptonium1]

Which is why the recent rise of the far right is probably going to be a flash in the pan movement. Already countries that were hit by the earliest populist movements are starting to adapt. Corbyn appears to have built a meaningful left populist platform,

In what alternative reality has the UK had a populist movement?

and unless the SNP maintains its own seats the UK will probably be see the Tories falling out of power in the 2020s,

They've been in power for almost 9 years with an austerity government with unsustainable house prices and the worst wage stagnation in two centures, but they still maintain a five percent poll lead. The probablity of this happening is near zero. Corbyn is offering an alternative, but not one that is liked. My point is, at least his alternative is not "we're not Tories"

similarly, time is against the GOP, while the Democrats have sort of screwed themselves with a neoliberal "at least we're not the Republicans" platform, they are starting to adapt,

starting to adapt? all i see is screeching. this must have been an extremely recent development, since just a month ago they were screeching against kavanaugh because he was a trump pick.

there is a very clear apetite for a populist left in the US as well.

not in the places the democrats need to swing ... that's like saying liverpool and east london like corbyn. yeah but who gives a shit lol they will like any shade of red they're not the people you need to convince

Whereas the GOP's acting as an existential threat to many communities that are on the demographic ascendancy will likely bite them in the ass.

asians are moving towards trump, blacks are largely static, hispanics despite all the media frenzy have failed to largely move against him. hispanics were plurality pro-kavanaugh, which is a defining issue of these midterms. honestly, overblown.

I suspect the Democratic Old Guard is probably on its way out, if not in the 2019-2020 time frame than probably in the 2020s. The party's establishment is aging out at this point, and they're soon to start dying out.

the problem is the only difference between the new line of democrat leaders and the dem old guard are the numbers on the birth certificate. none of them have any charisma of value.

trump is begging for someone like gillibrand, booker or harris to emerge, let alone warren, as his challenger. it would be a gift from god.

the only people who can beat trump are those who come without political baggage (someone from outside of politics, also) and someone who doesn't ignore the plight of those who switched from core democrat to trump last time round. bloomberg was an option until he started railing against working class whites. now I can't really think of anyone. cuban is just a moron. any establishment politician is an easy win. trump's biggest threat probably comes from within his party, like a flake challenge.

[Post War America]

That would take anything even vaguely resembling a close race going to the GOP which is... highly unlikely.

This is the best I could get on a map.

I don't see any way it gets better than that.

I could see this but that'd be a stretch.

[Washington Resistance Army]

This is the best I could get on a map.

I don't see any way it gets better than that.

I could see this but that'd be a stretch.

Change Montana and Jersey to Dem and that's very possible.

[Post War America]

Which is why the recent rise of the far right is probably going to be a flash in the pan movement. Already countries that were hit by the earliest populist movements are starting to adapt. Corbyn appears to have built a meaningful left populist platform,

In what alternative reality has the UK had a populist movement?

The kind where Corbyn is actively making criticism of the neoliberal establishment.

and unless the SNP maintains its own seats the UK will probably be see the Tories falling out of power in the 2020s,

They've been in power for almost 9 years with an austerity government with unsustainable house prices and the worst wage stagnation in two centures, but they still maintain a five percent poll lead. The probablity of this happening is near zero. Corbyn is offering an alternative, but not one that is liked. My point is, at least his alternative is not "we're not Tories"

similarly, time is against the GOP, while the Democrats have sort of screwed themselves with a neoliberal "at least we're not the Republicans" platform, they are starting to adapt,

starting to adapt? all i see is screeching. this must have been an extremely recent development, since just a month ago they were screeching against kavanaugh because he was a trump pick.

They're screeching because he's an alleged perpetrator of sexual assault, and because he represents an existential threat to a number of people.

there is a very clear apetite for a populist left in the US as well.

not in the places the democrats need to swing ... that's like saying liverpool and east london like corbyn. yeah but who gives a shit lol they will like any shade of red they're not the people you need to convince

Perhaps, but the purple people I suspect are more interested in why their lives suck and would be ammenable to any answer to that question that doesn't involve personal failings. Ergo a left leaning economic populist could probably do as well as a right leaning ethno populist.

Whereas the GOP's acting as an existential threat to many communities that are on the demographic ascendancy will likely bite them in the ass.

asians are moving towards trump, blacks are largely static, hispanics despite all the media frenzy have failed to largely move against him. hispanics were plurality pro-kavanaugh, which is a defining issue of these midterms. honestly, overblown.

And that's fine for Trump, but I don't think that the GOP has the wherewithal to hold together the Trump coalition. Trump for all his failings has a certain charisma that appeals to the right people enough. When he goes, and when the neocons reassert dominance, they will be screwed, and if they don't well a political party based upon fear and hatred of the other has nothing to stand on when the other is removed or safely on the reservation.

I suspect the Democratic Old Guard is probably on its way out, if not in the 2019-2020 time frame than probably in the 2020s. The party's establishment is aging out at this point, and they're soon to start dying out.

the problem is the only difference between the new line of democrat leaders and the dem old guard are the numbers on the birth certificate. none of them have any charisma of value.

[/quote]

That's nonsense, the Democratic new guard are better suited to dealing with issues faced by younger voters. They tend more towards economic issues than the establishment, and are more willing to criticize the status quo then the establishment. They lack charisma true, but that's something that can be improved upon.

[Northern Davincia]

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

That mere sentence is a crime against humanity.

[Post War America]

I could see this but that'd be a stretch.

Change Montana and Jersey to Dem and that's very possible.

I mean I was moving Montana and New Jersy into the GOP column with the assumption that close polling numbers means contested race and contested race means a GOP pickup. I don't actually think that they'd win, the map I gave is literally the very outside of what I consider to be anything other than farcical.

I personally suspect we're looking at a range from 53-47 GOP to 49-51 Dem in the Senate with outside possibilities that are not unthinkable, but highly unlikely of a 54-46 GOP or 48-52 Dem Senate.

[Luminesa]

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Uhhhhhh I don’t know if her own party wants her even.

[Kowani]

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Uhhhhhh I don’t know if her own party wants her even.

We don’t.

[Post War America]

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Uhhhhhh I don’t know if her own party wants her even.

Most dems don't Progressive dems really don't Red State dems of all flavors really really don't.

[Liriena]

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Uhhhhhh I don’t know if her own party wants her even.

From what I've seen, people who still actively want Hillary Clinton to run for any sort of office are about as numerous as the people who honestly, unironically thought that Jeb! would make a good candidate and president.

Even some of her most ardent defenders have shifted left and embraced anti-establishment sentiments over the past couple years (see: Chairman Peter Daou).

[Northern Davincia]

Uhhhhhh I don’t know if her own party wants her even.

From what I've seen, people who still actively want Hillary Clinton to run for any sort of office are about as numerous as the people who honestly, unironically thought that Jeb! would make a good candidate and president.

Even some of her most ardent defenders have shifted left and embraced anti-establishment sentiments over the past couple years (see: Chairman Peter Daou).

Jeb! would have been a good president, methinks.

[Liriena]

From what I've seen, people who still actively want Hillary Clinton to run for any sort of office are about as numerous as the people who honestly, unironically thought that Jeb! would make a good candidate and president.

Even some of her most ardent defenders have shifted left and embraced anti-establishment sentiments over the past couple years (see: Chairman Peter Daou).

Jeb! would have been a good president, methinks.

Eeeeeeh, he wouldn't have been a complete omnishambles, I guess, but I have my doubts as to how good he would have been able to be with McConnell and Ryan still calling the shots in Congress.

[Corrian]

The Democratic and Republican party leaderships are all way, way less popular than Trump.

[Corrian]

Also I've filled everything out on my ballot accept the 1639 law, because I'm still mixed/

[G-Tech Corporation]

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Gods no. Zeus send it that that creature be kept away from good folks.

[Corrian]

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Gods no. Zeus send it that that creature be kept away from good folks.

I mean, the alternative is Paul Ryan. Not really any better.

[Freezic Vast]

Gods no. Zeus send it that that creature be kept away from good folks.

I mean, the alternative is Paul Ryan. Not really any better.

Isn't he stepping down tho, so who's going to replace him if the GOP holds the House???

[Oil exporting People]

Texas and Tennessee remain secure, Arizona looks tied heading into election day. North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana looking to be breaking for the GOP; North Dakota especially. Florida is, like Arizona, in a dead heat.

[Petrasylvania]

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

Gods no. Zeus send it that that creature be kept away from good folks.

Even if Pelosi, Feinstein, Waters and Hillary Clinton all died at the same time you righties would simply latch on to another Democrat woman as the new Two Minutes Hate.

[Outer Sparta]

I mean, the alternative is Paul Ryan. Not really any better.

Isn't he stepping down tho, so who's going to replace him if the GOP holds the House???

Well in this case it would be Kevin McCarthy or Steve Scalise. Jim Jordan also wants it for some reason.

[Northern Davincia]

Gods no. Zeus send it that that creature be kept away from good folks.

Even if Pelosi, Feinstein, Waters and Hillary Clinton all died at the same time you righties would simply latch on to another Democrat woman as the new Two Minutes Hate.

As opposed to Democratic misandry?

[Astrolinium]

Texas and Tennessee remain secure, Arizona looks tied heading into election day. North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana looking to be breaking for the GOP; North Dakota especially. Florida is, like Arizona, in a dead heat.

You live in a weird reality. Texas and Tennessee are probably R seats at this point, Heitkamp's not winning in North Dakota, but Missouri and Indiana are still complete tossups and Democrats are very clearly leading in Florida.

[Corrian]

This I feel is my most likely prediction

Best chance for Democrats

Best chance for Republicans, though i should point out I see it very unlikely Montana flips right now, or that Republicans manage to take all 5 of the swing states.

Barring anything enormously abnormal, this is about how I see it going. With North Dakota out of reach pretty much now, and Texas and Tennessee going that way, I feel all of these may be the most likely outcomes, and even then I'd put Republicans at best bet like 54, not 56.

[Petrasylvania]

Even if Pelosi, Feinstein, Waters and Hillary Clinton all died at the same time you righties would simply latch on to another Democrat woman as the new Two Minutes Hate.

As opposed to Democratic misandry?

Feminazi stole your ice cream?

Yeah, that Democrat "misandry" where men have no presence or leadership roles at all.