US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Freezic Vast]

Menendez is still going to win, largely because of the population packed areas on the coast and near New York in the northeast. The fact that a deep blue state is in the possibility of being a tossup should be at a shock to some. It should still be a closely watched seat like many other closely watched Senate seats, and could prove to be the strange outlier.

[Thermodolia]

Menendez is still going to win, largely because of the population packed areas on the coast and near New York in the northeast. The fact that a deep blue state is in the possibility of being a tossup should be at a shock to some. It should still be a closely watched seat like many other closely watched Senate seats, and could prove to be the strange outlier.

I think it’s the democrats Moore. If any other republican had been in Moore’s place that seat would have been a solid republican hold. Same thing here. If any other less corrupt democrat was in Menendez‘s place the seat would be solid D

[Greater vakolicci haven]

The only way that would have been more hilarious was if a Teen Girls For Roy Moore campaign was conducted.

Because teenager girls near Moore would have been a great idea /s

Has it actually gone to court or are we still in alegations?

[Petrasylvania]

Because teenager girls near Moore would have been a great idea /s

Has it actually gone to court or are we still in alegations?

Allegation? He was lifetime banned from a mall for being a creeping kinko.

[Page]

Because teenager girls near Moore would have been a great idea /s

Has it actually gone to court or are we still in alegations?

When you have multiple people making allegations, and even more people who said that Moore was known around town as the guy to keep your teenage daughters away from, it doesn't seem likely that he's innocent.

[Valrifell]

The issue is that NJ Dems might not show up to vote. As I mentioned somewhere else, government corruption is the highest concern in this race. Of course, Trump essentially ensures that enough Democrats will turn up to give him his seat, but it shouldn't be this close and he probably shouldn't seek re-election in 2024.

i like how you went from saying nj is certain blue to 'well maybe...'

60 seats seems increasingly likely, and 55 it is at minimum. nj part of the former.

My position has always been that "this is going to be closer than it should be."

[Page]

NJ once elected Chris Christie, anything could happen. Took them a long time to realize how much they regretted that choice too. I guess some New Jersyians realized their regret during the 3rd hour stuck on a bridge Christie closed to spite an opponent.

[Valrifell]

Menendez is still going to win, largely because of the population packed areas on the coast and near New York in the northeast. The fact that a deep blue state is in the possibility of being a tossup should be at a shock to some. It should still be a closely watched seat like many other closely watched Senate seats, and could prove to be the strange outlier.

I think it’s the democrats Moore. If any other republican had been in Moore’s place that seat would have been a solid republican hold. Same thing here. If any other less corrupt democrat was in Menendez‘s place the seat would be solid D

At least in Moore's case there was some indication the race could go either way, according to RCP, did not show a consistent narrative with who would win. Kind of expected for a race as close as it was. Three polls that cover approximately the same range of time have Menendez up 5-9 points.

[Arlenton]

I think he's going to win. It'll just be a lot closer then normal.

I mean, if people are going to call NJ a tossup than I fully expect those same people to call Texas a tossup as well, considering Cruz and Menendez are polling at similar margins (according to RCP averages).

I see both races as similar, which is why I'm confident both incumbents will win.

[Ngelmish]

The issue is that NJ Dems might not show up to vote. As I mentioned somewhere else, government corruption is the highest concern in this race. Of course, Trump essentially ensures that enough Democrats will turn up to give him his seat, but it shouldn't be this close and he probably shouldn't seek re-election in 2024.

He really shouldn't have sought reelection, and the Democrats shouldn't have allowed him to, in 2018. A grave mistake, that hopefully won't cost them this seat.

The issue is that NJ Dems might not show up to vote. As I mentioned somewhere else, government corruption is the highest concern in this race. Of course, Trump essentially ensures that enough Democrats will turn up to give him his seat, but it shouldn't be this close and he probably shouldn't seek re-election in 2024.

Menendez should have ceded his seat to another Democrat by not running in the first place. It's the right thing to do when you're faced with scandals.

Failing an actual criminal conviction, there's no legal mechanism for the party to force Menendez not to run, and he'd already said he was planning to before the corruption trial. It would have been better for the party if he hadn't insisted, but there really wasn't much they could do -- and publicly fighting with him about it would have damaged their chances to hold the seat much more than leaving him to run.

[Outer Sparta]

I think it’s the democrats Moore. If any other republican had been in Moore’s place that seat would have been a solid republican hold. Same thing here. If any other less corrupt democrat was in Menendez‘s place the seat would be solid D

At least in Moore's case there was some indication the race could go either way, according to RCP, did not show a consistent narrative with who would win. Kind of expected for a race as close as it was. Three polls that cover approximately the same range of time have Menendez up 5-9 points.

I think the race is a lean Dem or likely Dem not a tossup. Hugin hasn't lead any poll and they kept showing Menendez with a consistent 5-9 point lead so far.

[Outer Sparta]

NJ once elected Chris Christie, anything could happen. Took them a long time to realize how much they regretted that choice too. I guess some New Jersyians realized their regret during the 3rd hour stuck on a bridge Christie closed to spite an opponent.

If they elect Hugin they will also regret it. Hindsight is 20/20.

[Post War America]

The issue is that NJ Dems might not show up to vote. As I mentioned somewhere else, government corruption is the highest concern in this race. Of course, Trump essentially ensures that enough Democrats will turn up to give him his seat, but it shouldn't be this close and he probably shouldn't seek re-election in 2024.

i like how you went from saying nj is certain blue to 'well maybe...'

60 seats seems increasingly likely, and 55 it is at minimum. nj part of the former.

A 60 seat majority is extremely unrealistic for the Republicans. It would require the GOP to be under-performing well outside the margin for error in several races for that to happen. The biggest realistic gains they could achieve would maybe be 54-46, and that would assume anything less than leaning dem is automatically a set for the GOP.

[Valrifell]

i like how you went from saying nj is certain blue to 'well maybe...'

60 seats seems increasingly likely, and 55 it is at minimum. nj part of the former.

A 60 seat majority is extremely unrealistic for the Republicans. It would require the GOP to be under-performing well outside the margin for error in several races for that to happen. The biggest realistic gains they could achieve would maybe be 54-46, and that would assume anything less than leaning dem is automatically a set for the GOP.

I'd say that a 52-48 is the most likely scenario. But anywhere from 54-46 to 50-50 or even 49-51 is plausible.

[Myrensis]

At least in Moore's case there was some indication the race could go either way, according to RCP, did not show a consistent narrative with who would win. Kind of expected for a race as close as it was. Three polls that cover approximately the same range of time have Menendez up 5-9 points.

I think the race is a lean Dem or likely Dem not a tossup. Hugin hasn't lead any poll and they kept showing Menendez with a consistent 5-9 point lead so far.

Yeah, calling NJ a toss up is a bit of a stretch. While an upset is always possible...in spite of all of Menendez's scandal and unpopularity he has led every single poll. There hasn't even been an odd outlier at any point giving Hugin a lead, which you might expect if the race was actually that close.

It doesn't really compare with Moore in Alabama, where the polling fluctuated quite a bit. Nor generally are people likely to view Menendez's corruption scandals in the same way they viewed Moore being a certifiable nutcase whose defense against accusations of pedophilia was "I always asked the parents for permission first, and this is obviously a homosexual communist plot to steal the seat Jesus wanted me to have."

Menendez is badly tarnished, Moore was radioactive.

[Mystic Warriors]

i like how you went from saying nj is certain blue to 'well maybe...'

60 seats seems increasingly likely, and 55 it is at minimum. nj part of the former.

A 60 seat majority is extremely unrealistic for the Republicans. It would require the GOP to be under-performing well outside the margin for error in several races for that to happen. The biggest realistic gains they could achieve would maybe be 54-46, and that would assume anything less than leaning dem is automatically a set for the GOP.

Trump supporters still think a red wave is coming.

[Post War America]

A 60 seat majority is extremely unrealistic for the Republicans. It would require the GOP to be under-performing well outside the margin for error in several races for that to happen. The biggest realistic gains they could achieve would maybe be 54-46, and that would assume anything less than leaning dem is automatically a set for the GOP.

I'd say that a 52-48 is the most likely scenario. But anywhere from 54-46 to 50-50 or even 49-51 is plausible.

The changes I've seen would indicate the most likely outcome being 53-47, 52-48, 51-49, 50-50, or 49-51, none of which are nearly as outlandish as a 60-40 GOP controlled Senate. I could see a path for the GOP to make 54-46, but that'd be a stretch.

[Seangoli]

A 60 seat majority is extremely unrealistic for the Republicans. It would require the GOP to be under-performing well outside the margin for error in several races for that to happen. The biggest realistic gains they could achieve would maybe be 54-46, and that would assume anything less than leaning dem is automatically a set for the GOP.

Trump supporters still think a red wave is coming.

They also think they are part of a silent massive majority that won 2016 by an overwhelming majority, rather than more or less being about equivalent to Democrats that won the Presidency by only the slimmest of margins in a few key states.

Realistically, the House is likely Dem and the Senate will either be unchanged or the Republicans gain a slim gain.

[Mystic Warriors]

Trump supporters still think a red wave is coming.

They also think they are part of a silent massive majority that won 2016 by an overwhelming majority, rather than more or less being about equivalent to Democrats that won the Presidency by only the slimmest of margins in a few key states.

Realistically, the House is likely Dem and the Senate will either be unchanged or the Republicans gain a slim gain.

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

[Trumptonium1]

They also think they are part of a silent massive majority that won 2016 by an overwhelming majority, rather than more or less being about equivalent to Democrats that won the Presidency by only the slimmest of margins in a few key states.

Realistically, the House is likely Dem and the Senate will either be unchanged or the Republicans gain a slim gain.

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

and that is precisely why there will be a landslide

in hungary, in poland and more recently in italy, a clear trend has risen where the opposition's public face and policy is limited to 'anti-orban' or 'anti-PiS' or 'anti-salvini' ... in a similar fashion the democrats have been developing the complex political theory of 'anti-whatever-trump-wants'

which is a great way to lose, as the other three aforementioned examples show. at least in the UK and france, the liberals/socdems actually have something to propose rather than 'dont vote for the other side'

[Thuzbekistan]

They also think they are part of a silent massive majority that won 2016 by an overwhelming majority, rather than more or less being about equivalent to Democrats that won the Presidency by only the slimmest of margins in a few key states.

Realistically, the House is likely Dem and the Senate will either be unchanged or the Republicans gain a slim gain.

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

[Corrian]

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

Nah, we'll just have Pelosi as leader. Again

[Post War America]

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

and that is precisely why there will be a landslide

in hungary, in poland and more recently in italy, a clear trend has risen where the opposition's public face and policy is limited to 'anti-orban' or 'anti-PiS' or 'anti-salvini' ... in a similar fashion the democrats have been developing the complex political theory of 'anti-whatever-trump-wants'

which is a great way to lose, as the other three aforementioned examples show. at least in the UK and france, the liberals/socdems actually have something to propose rather than 'dont vote for the other side'

Which is why the recent rise of the far right is probably going to be a flash in the pan movement. Already countries that were hit by the earliest populist movements are starting to adapt. Corbyn appears to have built a meaningful left populist platform, and unless the SNP maintains its own seats the UK will probably be see the Tories falling out of power in the 2020s, similarly, time is against the GOP, while the Democrats have sort of screwed themselves with a neoliberal "at least we're not the Republicans" platform, they are starting to adapt, and it may take a few years of dragging the party mechanisms kicking and screaming, there is a very clear apetite for a populist left in the US as well. Whereas the GOP's acting as an existential threat to many communities that are on the demographic ascendancy will likely bite them in the ass. Probably not this year, probably not 2020, possibly not event 2022, but certainly by the mid 2020s.

Exactly. When Trump wins states by getting less votes than Romney got in a losing effort, that's not a massive majority but Democrats pissing off their base. Which they have s talent at doing

They really need to rethink how they approach the public and how they treat dissent. I think theyll benefit greatly once their current leadership is changed out.

I suspect the Democratic Old Guard is probably on its way out, if not in the 2019-2020 time frame than probably in the 2020s. The party's establishment is aging out at this point, and they're soon to start dying out.

[Corrian]

At most I could see them getting 58. AT MOST. And that doesn't seem likely at all.

[Post War America]

At most I could see them getting 58. AT MOST. And that doesn't seem likely at all.

That would take anything even vaguely resembling a close race going to the GOP which is... highly unlikely.