US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[San Lumen]

Newsom is almost certain to win. While I dont see any election as written in stone anymore I dont see a path to victory for Cox. The rural counties simply do not have enough votes to overcome the populous coast. he'd have to make serious inroads in the Bay Area and and Southern California to even have a shot.

Catastrophic bay area earthquake that puts ol' Gavin in a coma.

Is that supposed to be funny? Because it isn't. Shame on you for wishing harm to your fellow citizens

[Valrifell]

I am pretty certain we'll have to suffer through Cruz for another 6 years, but a man can dream.

Let's cross our fingers for the eventual Canadian overlord of these United States.

I agree, Trudeau leading the North American Union state of Canada and America would be pretty neat, albeit a little different. But I don't see what that has to do with anything./s

[The South Falls]

I am pretty certain we'll have to suffer through Cruz for another 6 years, but a man can dream.

Let's cross our fingers for the eventual Canadian overlord of these United States.

Please. Maybe they'll stop Cruz from doing all his shit.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Let's cross our fingers for the eventual Canadian overlord of these United States.

Please. Maybe they'll stop Cruz from doing all his shit.

No silly, Cruz IS the Canadian overlord.

[Thermodolia]

Let's cross our fingers for the eventual Canadian overlord of these United States.

I agree, Trudeau leading the North American Union state of Canada and America would be pretty neat, albeit a little different. But I don't see what that has to do with anything./s

Being a Chinese puppet is not something I want

[Valrifell]

I agree, Trudeau leading the North American Union state of Canada and America would be pretty neat, albeit a little different. But I don't see what that has to do with anything./s

Being a Chinese puppet is not something I want

It's just like in CK2 where you swear fealty just to fuck with them from the inside.

[The South Falls]

Please. Maybe they'll stop Cruz from doing all his shit.

No silly, Cruz IS the Canadian overlord.

Well, that's better than calling him the Zodiac Killer.

[Shofercia]

No silly, Cruz IS the Canadian overlord.

Well, that's better than calling him the Zodiac Killer.

Cruz - isn't that the guy no one likes?

[Valrifell]

Well, that's better than calling him the Zodiac Killer.

Cruz - isn't that the guy no one likes?

Correct.

[Petrasylvania]

I am pretty certain we'll have to suffer through Cruz for another 6 years, but a man can dream.

It would be quite the upset.

Would be fitting if someone who threw his lot in with Donnie ended up getting shafted.

[Telconi]

Catastrophic bay area earthquake that puts ol' Gavin in a coma.

Is that supposed to be funny? Because it isn't. Shame on you for wishing harm to your fellow citizens

It's pretty funny IMO.

[Telconi]

Cruz - isn't that the guy no one likes?

Correct.

Evidently some folks like him.

[Shrillland]

All right, more votes next week including a byelection and another race of interest for Thursday according to ballotpedia, so here's my take on all of them.

Kansas: The governor's race is a hot one for both sides despite most experts saying it'll go to the Republican, whomever that may be. There are two major Republican candidates next week, the first being the current Governor, Jeff Colyer, who's only been Governor for a year after Sam Brownback was placed into the Trump Administration. He has the backing of the NRA, the Kansas Farm Bureau, and the venerable Bob Dole. He's practically tied in the polls with the Trump-backed controversial Secretary of State, Kris Kobach, who also has a lot of movement conservatives standing behind him. It's close, but I think that Kobach will take the lead and win it. On the Democratic side, the candidate to beat is State Sen. Laura Kelly, who's 13 points ahead in the latest poll and has the backing of EMILY's List and most of the state's unions. I think she'll easily beat former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer,and she has a shot against Kobach who will be helped, in no small part, by prominent independent Greg Orman, who's also running in November and is polling at about 11%.

On to the House. First, we have the Republican race in the 2nd(Topeka). Incumbent Lynn Jenkins is retiring, and a likely candidate to take her place is State Sen. Caryn Tyson. She has the backing of the Kansas Farm Bureau, the Susan B. Anthony List, and Kansans for Life. The biggest spender and nearest competitor is Army Veteran Steve Watkins, but he's had an issue from a 2017 meeting at Shawnee County Democratic HQ to discuss running as a conservative Democrat on top of the fact that he remained out of politics during his service. Third, we have State Sen. Steve Fitzgerald, who also has a good chunk of support. It'll be close between Tyson and Fitzgerald though I see no polling. I can't say who will win it, but they'll a tough battle against Democrat and former State House Minority Leader Paul Davis. He's polling ahead in Democratic polls against both Fitzgerald and a generic Republican, but from a neutral standpoint, I think that either Fitzgerald or Tyson have a good shot.

Next is the Democratic race in the 3rd(Kansas City-Overland Park). There are three interesting candidates here, the first and most likely in my view is labour lawyer Brent Welder, who has the support of the Progressive Caucus, most progressive groups, and most of the area's unions with the notable exception of the Carpenters and the UTU. They're endorsing school teacher Tom Niermann, who also has a lot of local politicians behind him. Finally, there's attorney Sharice Davids, who has the support of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and most LGBT groups since she would be Kansas' first LGBT congresswoman. She's also a full Ho-Chunk(or Winnebago)Indian, which would make her the first Native American Woman elected to Congress. I think Welder will win it, and I also think that he'll beat incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in November.

Michigan: The Republican Race for the Senate is fairly close with both candidates tied in the polls. However, I think that Trump's backing will push transport/freight executive and Iraq Veteran John James over venture capitalist Sandy Pensler. In November...not so much. Debbie Stabenow has this in the bag.

In the Governor's race, incumbent Republican Rick Snyder's terms are up, so both sides have candidates. On the Republican side, the clear favourite is State Attorney General Bill Schuette, nearly 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor in most polls. Marist and JMC have Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley within 10 points, but Schuette will easily win the nod. On the Democratic side, former State Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer is in a similar situation in all but the Marist poll, so I think she'll win it. As for November, I think Whitmer will take the victory and the governor's mansion.

On to the House and the 11th(Livonia-Troy). Incumbent Republican Dave Trott is retiring, so both sides are fighting for a pretty contentious seat. Two prominent Republicans are leading the pack, the first being State Sen. Mike Kowall, who has the backing of the Detroit Regional Chamber, the Michigan Republican Assembly, the Police and Firefighter's associations, and many leading local office-holders. He's also been quoted as supporting the creation of an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus in Congress and not being as hard on immigration as Trump. The second candidate is co-owner of a automotive lubricant company and co-chair of Trump's 2016 campaign in Michigan, Lena Epstein. She has the backing of the Detroit News, the Susan B. Anthony List, and VIEW PAC, which supports Republican Women. I think that Kowall can win it, but it'll be close.

The Democratic race is even more crowded with four possible winners. First, we have former Auto Industry Task Force Chief of Staff Haley Stevens, who leads in the polls(technically, undecided has a clear advantage, but she leads among the known candidates) and has the backing of the Teamsters and the Women Under Forty PAC. Second, we have Suneel Gupta, who is co-founder of the healthcare company Rise alongside his brother, neurologist and CNN correspondent Sanjay Gupta. He has the backing of 314 Action and the Indian American Impact Fund. Third, we have State Rep. Tim Greimel, who has most of the unions behind him as well as NOW, the Detroit News, and the Detroit Regional Chamber. Finally, we have former Detroit Immigration Affairs director under Obama, Fayrouz Saad. She has the Justice Democrats and other progressive groups behind her, and she would be the first Muslim woman in Congress if elected. However, I think that Greimel will take the nomination and will beat Kowall in November.

Next, we have the 13th(Detroit-Westland), which actually has two elections going next week, a regular primary for the next term, and a special primary for a byelection to serve out the remnants of John Conyers Jr's term(the general for that will be the same day as Election Day, don't blame me for being so confusing). This was intended to be a coronation for a new hereditary seat...but the family was at war. I'll put it simply, Conyers' great-nephew, State Sen. Ian Conyers, was the one who leaked the news that the elder would resign over his sexual harassment allegations thinking that he would be handed the seat. Instead, the elder selected his son, hedge fund manager John Conyers III after that perceived betrayal. John III was thrown off the ballot for not getting enough petition signatures in time, and the party and voters alike felt alienated from Ian's actions against his cousin. So, while Ian's still on the ballot, he doesn't have a chance, so let's meet who does, shall we?

The unions, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, and a lot of the city's top Democrats and leaders of the Black Community are standing behind Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones, who's also leading in the polls. The progressives such as Democracy for America and Justice Democrats are standing behind former State Rep. Rashida Tlaib, as well as the local UFCW. The third major candidate is Westland Mayor Bill WIld, who's currently polling at about 20%, within the spread of the three candidates. It'll be a fight, but I think that Jones will win both primaries, and since the seat is unopposed, she'll win both elections.

Missouri: Next week will be fairly quiet on the people front, Claire McCaskill and Josh Hawley will win their respective primaries for the swinging senate seat in November. I think Hawley could take it, but I'm not sure yet. No other races of note next week, but there is a major referendum, Prop A. Last year, the Missouri GOP fulfilled a decades-long ambition by passing SB19, making Missouri a right-to-work state. But enough voters signed a petition to call a veto referendum, and so Prop A is going before the voters next week. The most recent polls from earlier in July from the conservative Remington Research show 58% of voters opposed to Prop A(a no vote means repealing the law), so I'm saying that the voters will vote to repeal right-to-work in Missouri.

Tennessee: Yes, I already did this one since the primary will be this upcoming Thursday, but ballotpedia has another race of interest since then. First, we have the surprise races of the election starting with the Senate race. Primary-wise, nothing really exciting here, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn will win for the Republicans while former Governor Phil Bredesen will win for the Democrats. In November, however, Bredesen's cross-bench appeal has led to the very real chance that the Democrats could take the seat. Poll after poll shows Bredesen in the lead, albeit within the margins of error.

As for the Governor's race, with incumbent Republican Bill Haslam retiring,the seat's open. The Democrats will choose former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean without difficulty. On the Republican side, however, there are four candidates likely to take the nomination, and with no runoffs, it could be a messy vote. The first candidate and most likely to win is Congresswoman Diane Black. She's ahead in the polls and has the endorsements of the NRA, the ACLJ, the American Conservative Union, and individuals like Rick Santorum and Steve Scalise. However, her lead in the polls has slipped, and there are polls where she's coming in second or even third. Number two is former Commissioner of the state Economic and Community Development department Randy Boyd. His only significant endorsement is Mike Huckabee, but he's practically neck-and-neck with Black in the polls and even lead one at the end of June.

Number three is construction big shot Bill Lee, who has a lot of support around his hometown of Chattanooga including the Times Free Press. He leads in a JMC poll from earlier this month. Finally, we have State House Speaker Beth Harwell, who has the endorsement of the Tennessee Education Association, the state's Fire Fighter's Association, and most of the GOP legislative leaders. She's pretty far behind the others, but with such a fractured electorate, she could pull it off. Personally, I think it'll be Black in the end, and she'll go on to...actually, the most recent polls are showing Dean leading, albeit with a full third of voters undecided, so Tennessee could be interesting in November in more ways than one.

On to the House with three interesting races. Our first stop is the Republican race for the 2nd(Knoxville). With Jimmy Duncan retiring from this semi-hereditary seat(he took over from his Dad in 1988), there are two likely nominees. First, we have State Rep. Jimmy Matlock, who has Duncan's endorsement. When he's not in the legislature, he runs a tyre service. Against him is the popular Mayor of Knox County, Tim Burchett. Burchett has accused Matlock of promoting his campaign in an advertisement for his tyre business, which is, understandably, illegal. Matlock is accusing Burchett of not being Republican enough since he voted for a Democratic speaker as a state senator. Also, there's Jason Emert, the chairman of the Young Republican National Federation who had the endorsement of Ted Cruz. Finally, the Republican Main Street Partnership PAC is endorsing Lt.Col. Ashley Nickloes. I think that Matlock will take this one in a close race and easily win in November. Since Republicans have held this seat since 1859 in a technical sense, it's not a surprise.

Next, we have the Republican 6th(Hendersonville-Cookeville). With Diane Black running for Governor, the seat's open and hotly contested. First, we have former Chancellor(Chancery Judge) Bob Corlew, who has the support of Tennessee Right to Life and over $1 million in his war chest. Another candidate with a similar amount is State Rep. Judd Matheny, who has the endorsements of Dana Rorahbacher and the alignment of the House Freedom Caucus. The third likely candidate is former state Agricultural Commissioner John Rose, who is running as an outsider who'll stand behind Trump and be tough on immigrants. I can't really be confident in a pick, but I'll say Matheny since he seems to have more backing on a national level.

Finally, we have the Republican 8th(Memphis-Jackson). Here, incumbent David Kustoff is in a close rematch against radiologist and owner of Flinn Broadcasting, George Flinn Jr., who ran against Kustoff in 2016 losing by just four points. With Trump's backing, I think Kustoff will win this and November as well.

Washington: Washington is a jungle primary state, so these projections will be top-two just like with Cali. In the Senate race, the top-two are expected to be incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell and former state GOP Chairwoman Susan Hutchison, and Cantwell will easily win.

Now to the House races starting with the 5th(Spokane). ALthough a lot of people aren't mentioning this, incumbent Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers has a serious challenge from former State Senate Majority Leader and Chancellor of WSU Spokane, Democrat Lisa Brown. They'll take the two spots, and I think Brown could potentially beat Rodgers in November.

Next is the 8th(Auburn-Wenatchee) Inumbent Dave Reichert is retiring, leaving the seat open. Spot One will easily go to prominent state GOP figure Dino Rossi. As for Spot Two, there are three Democrats likely to take it according to the polls, albeit the latest of these was back in April. First, there's paediatrician Kim Schrier, who has the backing of EMILY's List, the state AFL-CIO, about half of the local unions, the state's Stonewall Democrats, and Planned Parenthood along with 17% in the polls. Second, there's former CDC official Shannon Hader, who has most of the regional party branches, the USW, the IBEW, and NOW behind her with 11%. Finally, there's attorney and former King County Deputy Prosecutor Jason Rittereiser, who has the rest of the unions and the left-wing Seattle newspaper The Stranger behind him. I think it'll be Rossi and Schrier taking the spots, and that Rossi will win a close vote in November though I could be wrong in this quintessential swing district.

Next is the 9th(Seattle-Tacoma). Here, longtime incumbent Democrat Adam Smith has a serious challenge on his left from Democratic Socialist Sarah Smith, who has the backing of Justice Democrats, Our Revolution, the Washington Progressive Party, and the Olympia DSA. Although there's not a lot of polling, I think that the two Smiths could win the spots and shut out the Republicans, but Adam Smith will win in November.

And finally... the Columbus-Mansfield byelection(Ohio's 12th) is on Tuesday. At this rate, I think Balderson will win with Green candidate Joe Manchik potentially holding the balance, but it'll be closer than the GOP should be comfortable with. A 3-4 point margin in a seat that normally manages 22-28 point margins is cause for alarm for the national party.

[Petrasylvania]

Is that supposed to be funny? Because it isn't. Shame on you for wishing harm to your fellow citizens

It's pretty funny IMO.

Says a lot more about you than what's actually funny.

[FelrikTheDeleted]

It's pretty funny IMO.

Says a lot more about you than what's actually funny.

It really doesn’t, tbh.

[Telconi]

Says a lot more about you than what's actually funny.

It really doesn’t, tbh.

These people have no sense of humor.

[Corrian]

I mean, I didn't think it was that funny, but have you all ever heard of this thing called dark humor?

[Shrillland]

I mean, I didn't think it was that funny, but have you all ever heard of this thing called dark humor?

You would be surprised how many don't think that dark humour should be a thing.

[Petrasylvania]

It really doesn’t, tbh.

These people have no sense of humor.

Because you'd both crack up at someone making a "joke" about Donnie choking on a Nightly Cheeseburger.

[Corrian]

The guy who wants to start an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus intrigues me honestly.

[Telconi]

These people have no sense of humor.

Because you'd both crack up at someone making a "joke" about Donnie choking on a Nightly Cheeseburger.

From you, probably not, not because the subject is offensive, but because the delivery would probably be terrible.

[Shrillland]

The guy who wants to start an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus intrigues me honestly.

Well, here's a quote from his website, apparently he's pushed a lot of bills in the State Senate to further autonomous vehicles in Michigan:

In the State Senate, I’ve been at the forefront of efforts to expand autonomous vehicles, authoring a new law that will help provide safer transportation, better mobility and a stronger economy. My legislation will expand research and testing so that we can get autonomous vehicles to market quickly and safely. Advances in technology will allow Michigan’s auto industry to lead the world, creating more jobs for our workers. In Congress, I will form an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus, bringing together fellow policy-makers interested in driving this important part of our future economy.

[Corrian]

Hahahaha, Dino Rossi, I swear he never goes away.

The guy who wants to start an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus intrigues me honestly.

Well, here's a quote from his website, apparently he's pushed a lot of bills in the State Senate to further autonomous vehicles in Michigan:

In the State Senate, I’ve been at the forefront of efforts to expand autonomous vehicles, authoring a new law that will help provide safer transportation, better mobility and a stronger economy. My legislation will expand research and testing so that we can get autonomous vehicles to market quickly and safely. Advances in technology will allow Michigan’s auto industry to lead the world, creating more jobs for our workers. In Congress, I will form an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus, bringing together fellow policy-makers interested in driving this important part of our future economy.

Neat. I can fully approve of that.

[Thermodolia]

The guy who wants to start an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus intrigues me honestly.

Well, here's a quote from his website, apparently he's pushed a lot of bills in the State Senate to further autonomous vehicles in Michigan:

In the State Senate, I’ve been at the forefront of efforts to expand autonomous vehicles, authoring a new law that will help provide safer transportation, better mobility and a stronger economy. My legislation will expand research and testing so that we can get autonomous vehicles to market quickly and safely. Advances in technology will allow Michigan’s auto industry to lead the world, creating more jobs for our workers. In Congress, I will form an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus, bringing together fellow policy-makers interested in driving this important part of our future economy.

Nope nope nope. Hate this guy now. He’s buying into Silicon Valley’s stupidity.

[Shrillland]

Well, here's a quote from his website, apparently he's pushed a lot of bills in the State Senate to further autonomous vehicles in Michigan:

In the State Senate, I’ve been at the forefront of efforts to expand autonomous vehicles, authoring a new law that will help provide safer transportation, better mobility and a stronger economy. My legislation will expand research and testing so that we can get autonomous vehicles to market quickly and safely. Advances in technology will allow Michigan’s auto industry to lead the world, creating more jobs for our workers. In Congress, I will form an Autonomous Vehicle Caucus, bringing together fellow policy-makers interested in driving this important part of our future economy.

Nope nope nope. Hate this guy now. He’s buying into Silicon Valley’s stupidity.

What's wrong with autonomous vehicles? There's a lot of people who can't drive for many reasons who'll have the means to get places once we've perfected the technology.