US Midterm Election Megathread II: The Stretch Run Begins

[Morgantown West Virginia]

I know, I know already another election year in the United States, but the midterms this time around are probably the most important in a long time. So, we here on NS are going to talk about it. With the tide turning against the GOP (supposedly) can the Dems win back the House and the Senate this time.

As the maker of this (and hopefully future megathreads) regarding the 2018 midterms!
Here are the competitive House races, according to Inside Elections as of July 6, 2018:

Likely Democratic
MN-7
NV-4
PA-5 (flip from R)
PA-6 (flip from R)
Lean Democratic
FL-27 (flip from R)
FL-7
PA-8 (from Likely Dem)

Tilt Democratic
AZ-1
AZ-2 (flip from R)
NH-1
NJ-11 (flip from R)
NJ-2 (flip from R)
NV-3
PA-7 (flip from R)

Tossup
CA-39
CA-49
IA-1
MI-11
MN-1
MN-2
MN-8
PA-17
TX-23
VA-10
WA-8

Tilt Republican
CA-10
CA-25
CA-48
CO-6
FL-26
IL-6
NC-9
NE-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
OH-12
PA-1
TX-7

Lean Republican
CA-45
IL-12
KS-2
KS-3
KY-6
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-7
UT-4
VA-7
WI-1

Likely Republican
AR-2
AZ-8
CA-21
CA-4
CA-50
GA-6
GA-7
IA-3
IL-13
IN-2
MI-6
MI-7
MT- At-Large
NC-13
NJ-3
NY-11
NY-24
OH-1
OH-14
PA-10
TX-21
TX-32
VA-2
VA-5
WA-5
WV-3

Here is the state of the Senate races from Inside Elections as of July 6,2018
Safe Democratic:
CA
CT
DE
HI
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
NJ
NM]
NY
RI
VA
VT
WA

Likely Democratic
MN Special Election
OH (from lean Democratic)
WI (from lean Democratic)
PA

Lean Democratic
WI (moved from lean Democratic)
Tilt Democratic
MT
WV (moved from tossup)

Tossup
AZ
FL
IN
MO
NV

Tilt Republican
ND (flip from Dem)

Lean Republican
TN

Likely Republican
TX

Safe Republican
MS
MS Special Election
NE
WY
UT

[Likar]

First!

[Freezic Vast]

Still missing PA and a couple other mistakes...

[The South Falls]

Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

[Farnhamia]

Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

[Farnhamia]

First!

Don't spam. This isn't a chat thread.

[Freezic Vast]

Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Which is ironic since he made the 2nd megathread 15 pages before the first got 500 pages, (Which it will now remain stuck at 499 forever) that one got locked, thne you made another one, locked that because Morgantown should do and so.... third time's the charm I guess???

But anyway, I digress.

[The South Falls]

Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

[San Lumen]

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

[The South Falls]

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

Dammit, I was about to bring out my signs and marching boots.

[San Lumen]

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

Dammit, I was about to bring out my signs and marching boots.

Sorry sir. The elections in Alabama probably aren't going to be very exciting. I fully expect Kay Ivey to win a full term and for Republicans to win every statewide office. They will probably lose some seats in the state legislature but not very many.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Which is ironic since he made the 2nd megathread 15 pages before the first got 500 pages, (Which it will now remain stuck at 499 forever) that one got locked, thne you made another one, locked that because Morgantown should do and so.... third time's the charm I guess???

But anyway, I digress.

Yes, third time is a charm.

[Shrillland]

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

Actually, they have the runoff tomorrow to see if Roby keeps her seat. Plus the Georgia runoffs next week have some interest.

[Shrillland]

Hopefully, this thread won't be locked.

Anyway, here's my take on the major ballot initiatives across America come November with poll updates as they come in:(updates as of 8/27)

Alabama has four constitutional amendments coming up. Amendment 1 would authorise the placing of the Ten Commandments on public property including courthouses and schools. This was spearheaded by Dean Young, a former chief strategist for former justice and perennial pervert Roy Moore and received overwhelming support in the legislature. It may pass, but I don't know if SCOTUS will let it stay, even with the changes ahead.

Amendment 2 is perhaps most significant considering the recent SCOTUS changes, an amendment that "acknowledges, declares, and affirms that it is the public policy of this state to recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life." It would also ensure protection of the unborn. In short, it would effectively ban abortion if Roe V. Wade or Planned Parenthood V. Casey were to be overturned. Sadly, I can't find good poll numbers here(for now), but I do think it'll be rejected. It will, however, be close in the new atmosphere.

Amendment 3 is a relatively small matter involving changing the makeup of the University of Alabama board of trustees. It'll also pass

Amendment 4 would do away with some state byelections. If a seat in either house becomes vacant after October 1 of the year before the election(Alabama Reps and Senators are elected for four years), then it will stay vacant until the new term under the amendment. It will also allow the Secretary of State to co-opt a vacant seat if only one person runs in that particular byelection. This one I think could pass though some voters might be turned off of the idea of having no representation for over a year.

Alaska just has Ballot Measure 1, a measure that would impose new protections and require new permits for any projects that could potentially affect salmon habitats. Currently, permits are required for logging, excavating, or hydraulics over most bodies of water, but this would create clearer definitions for what could and couldn't be protected or allowed. Knowing Alaska, I'm not convinced it'll pass. Salmon may be king, but oil is emperor over all.

There are five initiatives up. First, we have Prop 125, a constitutional amendment that affects the pensions of elected officials and prison guards. First it would cap COL(cost-of-living) adjustments for both groups at 2% annually rather than the 4% it's at now. More significantly, it requires prison guards and other corrections employees hired after July 1 of this year to enroll in a new 401(k) rather than the state pension plan that employees already have. Personally, I think that having people, who risk their lives daily to keep us safe, bucked off of a secure pension onto a shaky 401(k) is an insult...but that's just me. I actually think this one could go down, and a Suffolk University poll from September shows 40% opposed with 32% undecided.

Next, we have Prop 126, which would amend the constitution to forbid the state or local governments from either levying new taxes on any kinds of services or raising existing ones. Effectively, it would ban raising or levying sales or excise taxes for those services. The Suffolk poll shows 48% in favour, so this is likely to pass.

Next up is Prop 127, which would require energy companies to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable sources. The amount would start at 12% in 2020 and rise up to 50% by 2030. This is being attacked as a measure suggested by an out-of-state fellow, Tom Steyer(the architect of this proposal) being from California. I'm not confident that it will pass. Arizona is changing, but they aren't California or even Nevada. The latest poll shows 47% opposed.

Next, we have Prop 305, which will decide whether or not SB1431 is upheld. SB 1431 is a law expand the current Empowerment Scholarship Accounts(or ESAs) programme to all public school students. ESAs are effectively a type of voucher where the state pays up to 90% of what the state would've paid for the student at a public school. Unlike traditional vouchers, the state pays the parents directly rather than earmarking funds for private or religious schools. Currently, ESAs are reserved for kids with disabilities, and SB 1431 would expand the programme to cover everyone over a period of six years. The issue is so clouded by the "only technically a voucher" thing that I think Prop 305 will narrowly pass, meaning the law will likely be upheld by the people. A June poll shows that it's a three-way dead heat while a September poll has Yes leading with 41%.

Also, we have Prop 306, a law that would prohibit candidates for office from spending public funds on political parties or tax-exempt 501(a) firms that could influence elections. It would also subordinate Arizona's Citizens Clean Election Commission(CCEC) to the Governor's Regulatory Review Council, effectively politicising what rules the CCEC implements. I can see people being in favour of the former, but with the growing blue tide in Arizona, this one could be defeated. That will depend on how the undecided vote, however, since Yes is leading by seven points with 29% undecided.

Three to look at here. Issue 2 would also amend the constitution to include a photo ID requirement at the polls. With a Hendrix College poll showing this ahead by 50 points, it'll definitely pass.

Issue 4 would authorise four new casino licences, one each for the Southland Park Greyhound Track in West Memphis, Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, and two unspecified spots, one each for Pine Bluff and Russellville. They would be taxed at 13% for the first $150 million they earn in net receipts(everything they earn minus payouts) and 20% for every dollar thereafter. 55% of the tax money goes to the state's General fund, 19.5% to the city or county(if it's not in a city) the casino is in, 17.5% to the Arkansas Racing Commission to be used as purse money for the two tracks, and 8% to the county the casino is in. A poll from earlier in the month shows No leading by seven points, so I think it'll be rejected.

Despite Ballotpedia's initial introduction, Issue 5 would actually raise the state's minimum wage to $11 an hour by 2021. 60% are in favour according to a recent Hendrix College poll, so it'll be approved.

Ah, the state that's practically synonymous with the word "proposition" has 12 of them on the ballot so far. Here are the big ones.

Props 1-4 are all bond measures for different things.

Prop 5 would expand the state's current property tax transference programme by allowing it for higher valued properties(currently, it's only allowed for properties of equal or lesser value), expanding the offer to the severely disabled of any age(only for those over age 55 currently)and allowing it for an unlimited number of moves within the state(currently, it's only allowed once in a lifetime). Since the California Association of Realtors is already filing a similar Proposition for 2020 with some additional safeguards, I'm thinking this could be rejected.

Prop 6 would repeal the RRAA 2017(Road Repair and Accountability Act 2017), and it would require voter approval via future propositions to impose or raise vehicle fees and fuel taxes. Although a poll showed that 52% of voters supported repealing the RRAA, this was back in December. The backers of Prop 6 did get nearly double the signatures needed, but an August poll shows 48% against the measure, likely due to the latter requirement of future propositions. A September Public Policy Institute Poll shows No with a clear 52% lead, so I think it'll be rejected.

Prop 7 would allow the legislature to switch to permanent DST by a 2/3 vote. Since people are tired of going forward and back twice a year, this will pass.

Prop 8 would require kidney dialysis clinics to refund either patients or their insurance companies for anything the clinics earn over 115% of the costs of direct care and improvements. If they don't refund a patient or company within 210 days, they could get fined. This one seems a little on the excessive side to me, and I think it'll be rejected.

Prop 10 would repeal a state law that forbids cities from imposing rent controls on apartments. A September Public Policy Institute poll has no leading by 12 points, so I think it'll be rejected.

Prop 11 would expand training and benefits to EMTs while requiring them to remain on call during lunch break while paying them at their normal rate...it'll probably pass.

Prop 12 would ban the sale of meat that's been confined in extremely small spaces. Knowing Cali, it'll pass. On a side note, PETA actually opposes this for not going far enough.

Nine constitutional questions and two laws here. There are also two bond issues but those aren't that important unless you live in CO. Amendment A would repeal the convict's exception to the state's ban on slavery. This Means that convicts working in prison would now have to be paid. Difficult here, but I think it'll pass.

Next, we have Amendment V. This would reduce the minimum age for serving in the legislature from 25 to 21. This was rejected 10 yeas ago, and I'm not sure it can succeed now.

Amendment W would consolidate judicial ballots by allowing county clerks to put one question down for retention per level of courts rather than each judge individually. This one will pass.

Amendment X would eliminate industrial hemp from the state constitution and move its definition to a regular law, thus making it more flexible should industrial hemp be accepted on a federal level. This one will pass.

Amendments Y and Z would create independent redistricting commissions for federal and state legislative districts. Given Colorado's leanings, they'll both pass.

Amendment 73 would abolish Colorado's current flat income tax and set up a progressive tax with five brackets, all of which are directed at high earners($150,000 or more). It would also raise the corporate income tax to 6% from the current 4.63%, lower property taxes for educational purposes, and set up the Quality Public Education Fund, which would be funded by the new taxes. I can see this one passing.

Amendment 74 would require compensation for any reduction in property values that could be caused by state laws or regulations. This is being proposed to offset any potential loss of values from the loss of mineral rights in case Colorado decides to ban or limit fracking in the state, and I think it has a chance to pass.

Amendment 75 would say that if a candidate for office was subject to the state's constitutional campaign contribution limits and either contributed or loaned their campaign $1 million or more of their own personal money, then all the other primary or general candidates could accept up to five times the normal limit. This one will also pass.

Prop 111 would restrict payday loan charges to 36% per year and eliminate all other fees or charges such as maintenance fees or additional interest for higher loans. Considering how Colorado's changing, I see this one passing as well.

Prop 112 would ban oil and gas development within 2,500 feet of any vulnerable spaces such as occupied buildings, parks, or most water sources on state or private land. I'll say pass, but I'm not sure yet.

Just two constitutional measures here. The first would be a transport lockbox amendment, which'll easily pass. The other would require public hearing on state land transfers or sales and a 2/3 majority of the legislature to approve them. Right now, the legislature only needs a simple majority and no public hearings. This will also pass.

Florida is unique. Every 20 years, a constitutional commission meets and decides on issues that it thinks should go on the ballot as amendments. Often, they'll combine issues base on general categories before sending them to the polls. This can lead to very disparate issues coming up, as you'll see.

First is Amendment 1, which would raise the property tax exemption from $100,000 to $125,000. It will pass with more than the 60% needed.

Amendment 2 would extend a 10-year cap on certain property assessments permanently. Not expected to pass.

Amendment 3 would require the voters' approval to expand gambling in Florida including to allow land-based casinos. This barely squeaks by according to a poll from last month, but it could pass.

Amendment 4 would restore the voting rights of most convicted felons(except for murderers and sexual felons)after they've finished their sentences. A September UNF poll shows a commanding 71% in favour of this, so it'll easily pass.

Amendment 5 would require a 2/3 vote of the legislature to either raise taxes or levy new ones. This one isn't likely to pass.

Amendment 6 would add a Marsy's Law to the State Constitution, raise the judicial retirement age from 70 to 75 years, and prohibit state courts from deferring to a state agency's interpretation of law in court cases, relying solely on established legal precedents where applicable. I'm not sure it will get the 60% needed.

Amendment 7 would require employers to provide death benefits to the surviving spouses of first responders, require the state to provide them to the spouses of active duty armed service members who are killed accidentally or illegally(murdered), require supermajorities of nine trustees and 12 governors to increase fees at any college, and enshrine Florida's higher education system in the constitution. The last poll was in may and had 80% support, so it'll pass.

Amendment 9 would ban offshore oil drilling....and vaping in public places. Don't ask me how those two are connected in any way, shape or form. It's now likely to pass.

Amendment 10 would require the creation of a state VA Department and a state Office of Domestic Security and Counter-Terrorism, change the opening date of the legislature to the second Tuesday in January in even-numbered years(currently starting in March), and prohibit counties from abolishing certain major offices while guaranteeing that those offices are all elected. Another expected rejection.

Amendment 11 would eliminate a ban on foreign-born people who aren't citizens from owning property, repeal a requirement for a high-speed rail system, and delete a provision that says that an amendment to criminal statute doesn't affect prosecution of a crime before the amendment was passed. This last one is called the Savings Clause, and only three states still have it. Nonetheless, this isn't expected to pass.

Amendment 12 would prohibit public officials from paid lobbying jobs while in office and for six years thereafter. It's just on the cusp of reaching the threshold according to the poll, and I think it'll get over it by November.

Amendment 13 would ban betting on dog races starting in 2021. It could pass, but I'll wait to see how the polls go first.

Five constitutional questions and two proposed laws here, so let's get started. Amendment 1 would allow the legislature to create the Georgia Outdoor Stewardship Trust Fund and allocate as much as 80 % of revenue from the state's outdoor equipment sales tax towards it. This is expected to pass.

Amendment 2 would create a separate state business court that could adjudicate issues bases on business and commercial law. Fulton and Gwinnett Counties already have similar courts that specialise in these types of laws. The unnumbered amount of judges would be appointed by the governor, confirmed by the house and senate judiciary committees, and serve an unlimited amount of five-year terms. I actually don't know if this one will pass or not, I'm leaning against it though.

Amendment 3 would let the legislature revamp the formula that determines taxes on forest land use conservation property(any privately-held forest plot of 200+acres that isn't meant for development), and it would also create the new designation of "commercial timberland"(commercial property meant for logging purposes) while also allowing a law giving 5% of an assistance grant, which is currently given to cities and counties to make up for the lost revenue of keeping forests intact, to the state to fund the grant programme. It passed the legislature unanimously, so I think it'll pass.

Amendment 4 would implement a Marsy's Law. Yep, it'll pass easily.

Amendment 5 is a measure that would allow school districts within a county to put a 1% sales and use tax on the ballot. If the tax is approved, it can last for up to five years, after which time, the people who have to vote to renew it. Simply, this will give school districts a means for building the building without having to resort to bonds. I think it'll pass.

Referendum A would create a new homestead exemption on property taxes in cities that straddle county lines, have a sales tax for public transit...it's for Metro Atlanta basically, that would be equal to the difference between the property's assessed value and its adjusted base year value. Not sure if it'll pass myself yet.

Referendum B would include business-financed properties in the state's nonprofit housing tax exemption for the mentally disabled. This one will pass.

Hawaii will be voting on whether or not to hold a constitutional convention in November. The state constitution automatically puts such a question on the ballot if nine-years have passed without the legislature doing so(effectively, every 10 years unless the legislature calls otherwise). A June poll from the Honolulu Civil Beat showed over 65% support for a convention, which would be the first since 1978. So I think this could pass.

Idaho has two measures: Prop 1 would legalise using video terminals for people to bet on instant racing, or historical horse racing. Basically, you bet on old races with others in a pool, and if you win, you get the money. It was legalised in 2013, then banned in 2015 after legislators said they'd been deceived. Now, it's on the ballot and has a chance of passing into law.

They also have Prop 2, which would expand Medicaid under ACA guidelines. With 66% in favour including a majority of Republicans, I think this will pass.

Indiana has Public Question 1 in November, which would require a balanced budget. Personally, I think balanced budget amendments are overrated and don't always mesh with economic realities...but I know I'm in the minority. This will pass.

Here, there's just a Marsy's Law Amendment, which'll pass.

Six constitutional questions up for grabs here. Amendment 1 would bar convicted felons from running for public office for five years after their sentences are up unless they've been pardoned. It's been twenty years since Louisiana voters passed a stricter version of this measure, one that the State Supreme Court struck down in 2016 for a mistake in the ballot's text at the time. No errors here, though, so it will pass.

Amendment 2 would require a unanimous verdict for felony trials....wait, what? Yes, Louisiana(since 1898) and, to a lesser extent, Oregon only require 10 jurors for a guilty verdict rather than the full 12. Lest you think that SCOTUS would've said something by now, they ruled in 1972 that the 6th Amendment only required unanimous verdicts in federal cases, but that the 14th Amendment didn't require them for state cases. Hence this. I think Louisiana will join the 21st century here, even Oregon requires unanimous verdicts for murder trials.

Amendment 3 would allow political subdivisions(cities, parishes, and the like)to loan equipment to each other through written agreements. This is on the ballot after a town got in trouble for loaning a vacuum truck and its operator to another agency in 2016. Towns and agencies were forbidden from exchanging equipment, so this is set to rectify that problem and will likely pass.

Amendment 4 would forbid the state from using the state transportation fund to give money to the state police for traffic control. This was proposed because money that was claimed to go to traffic control was actually going into other state police facets instead. I think this one will pass..

Amendment 5 would allow special tax assessments for properties in trusts where the the resident is either a disabled veteran or the surviving spouse of a veteran or first responder. This would mean they would either be exempt or paying much lower taxes. Easily approved.

Amendment 6 would require that tax increases from certain appraisals(an increase in value of 50% or more) would be phased in over a period of four years. This also seems likely to pass.

Five votes here, four are bond issues, so let's move on to the one that matters .

Question 1 would levy a 3.8% payroll tax on people making more than $128,400 a year and a 3.8% tax on non-wage income such as stock dividends and bond interest above the same threshold. This would go to the creation of the Universal Home Care Programme, which would provide free long-term home care and social services to all residents over age 65 and the physically and mentally disabled. I'm not sure it'll pass myself. Not because people don't agree with it, but because it might not be enough to fund such an endeavour.

Two amendments in Maryland to look at. The first would allow the legislature to pass an Election Day-registration law, which allows people to register and vote on the same day. This one, I believe, will pass.

Number two is an education lockbox amendment that says that gambling revenues would only go to educational funding. By 2023, all gambling revenue would go to to the education fund on top of the minimum required funding already appropriated by the state. I also think this one will pass.

First, we have Question 1. This would impose limits on the number of patients that a nurse could take care of at any one time. Limits go from one patient under anesthesia or on ICU per nurse to as many as six patients who are well babies or uncomplicated postpartum mothers and children. Hospitals would be required to meet these limits without reducing staff. It survived a commonwealth Supreme Court ruling in June, and polls are somewhat uncertain. Polls show that issue becoming increasingly close, with an October Boston Globe poll having No leading within the margin of error. I still think it could be approved, but it's going to be close.

Question 2 would set up a 15-member citizens' commission to advocate for a federal constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United V. FEC. Massachusetts being what it is, this will pass, and with polls averaging a 46-point lead, it will be overwhelming.

Question 3 is the most contentious of all. Back in 2016, the General Court passed SB 2407, which banned discrimination on the basis of gender identity. A group opposed to the measure managed to get enough signatures together for a people's veto referendum, which is what Question 3 is. If people vote No, then the bill will be vetoed and discrimination can continue. A poll taken by Boston's WBUR radio at the end of May showed that 52% of voters will uphold SB 2407, and a September poll from them shows the Uphold side leading by nearly 50 points, which is in line with the Boston Globe poll. Yes will definitely win here.

[Shrillland]

One law and two amendments here. Proposal 1 would legalise, tax, and regulate the sale of recreational marijuana and industrial hemp. The latest poll from early May has it fairly close, with approve just six points ahead, but the poll was drafted by the anti- group. More neutral polls in September show yes being approves by an average of 11 points, so it'll pass.

Proposal 2 would create a independent redistricting commission for state and federal districts. There was a major court challenge, but it manage to survive it easily. The Detroit News poll shows it winning by 7 points while an EPIC-MRA poll from late September has it approved by 16 points, so it will pass.

Proposal 3 would add eight forms of voting rights to the state constitution: The right to vote with a secret ballot, the right for overseas and military voters to receive an absentee ballot at least 45 days before an election, the right to register to vote by mail up to 15 days before an election, the right to register to vote in person for the remaining 14 days, the right to vote straight ticket in general elections, the right to automatic registration when getting or renewing a Driver's Licence or ID, the right to vote absentee for all voters within 40 days of an election, and the right to audited results. Michigan may be purple, but the EPIC-MRA poll has this passing by 45 points, so it'll pass.

Four amendments and three laws to look at here. Amendment 1 is a fairly sweeping provision that would ban lawmakers from becoming lobbyists during their time in office and for two years thereafter, forbid legislators from accepting gifts from lobbyists over five dollars, establish a $2,500 per person limit for campaign contributions for Representatives and Senators, forbid the allowance of unlimited contributions, prohibit contributions using fake names or intermediaries, make legislative records public, and create the office of non-partisan state demographer. The State Auditor would create a list of potential demographers that had not held a partisan office for at least four years before selection and could not do so for four years after their term is up. The Majority and Minority Leaders in the Senate would choose a person from the list, and that person would be tasked with drawing legislative districts. A lot to put into a single amendment, but I think it will pass. However, the contribution limit could lead to a court challenge.

Amendments 2 and 3 AND Prop C would all legalise medical marijuana, the difference between them being taxation and where the money would go. Prop C is a regular law that would impose a 2% tax that would go to VA services, drug treatment, education, and law enforcement, Amendment 2 would impose a 4% tax that would go to VA healthcare services, and Amendment 3 would impose a 15% tax that would go to the funding and creation of a new state Biomedical Research and Drug Development Institute. That at least one of these will pass, I have no doubt. And since Missouri has no overriding statutes on things like this, I think that C and 2 will both pass, but 3's taxes are too high for most voters and will be rejected. If more than one passes, then the one with the most votes becomes law.

Amendment 4 would remove the current ban on organisations advertising bingo games and allow someone to call a bingo game after being part of an organisation for six months(currently, the requirement is two years). This has been rejected twice in the last 40 years, most recently in 2000 with a resounding 67% no vote. I don't see it passing now.

Prop B would raise the state's minimum wage to $12 an hour by 2023 and thereafter indexing it to the CPI annually. Since Missouri already indexes it this way, I think this one could pass.

Finally, Prop D would increase the state's gas tax from 17 to 27 cents per gallon with the money going to the Missouri Highway Patrol, exempt prizes from the Olympics, Paralympics, and Special Olympics from state taxes, and create the Emergency State Freight Bottleneck Fund, which would be used to fund projects that alleviate traffic jams that can slow down the movement of freight goods. A State Fair straw poll(not quite up to scratch, but it's all I have) has prop D approved by about 59%, and while I take this with a grain of salt, there is now a good chance of approval.

Four laws up here. First, LR-128 is straightforward: an renewal for a .06% property tax to fund the University of Montana for 10 years. It'll pass.

Next, LR-129 would ban people from collecting the election ballots of other people unless they're caregivers, relatives/spouses, or election officials/postal workers. If you are exempt, you would have to provide your name, the voter's name, and your relationship to the voter. This is meant for people who collect mail-in or absentee ballots to send to the designated polling places. Out west, this is actually not an uncommon practice since many people either have no vehicle to get to the polling place or don't have the money to even get stamps, particularly out on Native reservations. A lot of people probably won't see a problem with this ban even though it's not really necessary...so I think it'll pass.

The third is I-185. This would raise tobacco taxes by $2 per pack and taxes on other types of tobacco or e-cigarette products in similar proportions. The proceeds from the tax increase would fund the state's portion of Medicaid as well as anti-smoking programmes and long-term care for seniors and the disabled. I think it could pass, but I'm not too certain yet.

The fourth is I-186. This would require Montana's Environmental Quality Department to automatically reject permits for hard rock mines if the mining company's reclamation plans don't include sufficient means to preserve water supplies in the area without "perpetual treatment", which means eliminating acids, mercury, or lead on a permanent basis. I'm not sure this one will pass, but knowing Montana, it has a chance.

Just one measure here, Initiative 427 would bring Nebraska into the fold of expanded Medicaid states as per the ACA. It's a popular idea, so I think it will pass.

Four amendments and two laws here. First, Question 1 would add Marsy's Law to the Constitution. Like the others, it'll pass.

Question 2 would exempt feminine hygiene products from state and local sales taxes. About time, isn't it? This will easily pass.

Question 3 would amend the constitution to require the legislature to establish an open, free, and competitive retail energy market(read: Deregulation) and prohibit energy monopolies. Considering that Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, and Sheldon Adelson have made an alliance from hell to get this going...it could be rejected, but it'll be close if it is.

Question 4 would exempt things like oxygen equipment, mobility equipment, and similar medical goods from sales taxes. Another one that'll pass easily.

Question 5 would automatically register people to vote if they get a driver's licence or ID. Another one that'll pass, but it'll be closer than some might think I think.

Question 6(just added on July 13) would amend the constitution to require utilities to generate at least 50% of their energy from renewable sources by 2030(currently the threshold is 25% by 2025). Since this just got on the ballot, there's no polling, but I think it could pass.

Two amendments here. The first is a true "Live Free or Die" proposal, guaranteeing the right to freedom from governmental intrusion in private or personal information. A giant middle finger to NSA surveillance is basically what it is. Knowing New Hampshire, it'll easily get the 2/3 majority it needs to pass.

The second gives all taxpayers the right to take legal action against the state or any municipality if they feel that the government is spending public funds illegally. Another one that'll easily pass.

Four bond issues...and two amendments.

Constitutional Amendment 1 would allow the legislature to set the appeals process from probate courts and other lower courts. Currently, they all go to the New Mexico District Court, but this would let the legislature send some of them straight to the State Court of Appeals. This was a bipartisan measure, and I think it'll pass.

Constitutional Amendment 2 would create an independent, seven-member state ethics commission meant to investigate ethics violations. Another easy approval.

Six proposed amendments here. The first would guarantee a right to hunt and fish. This one I can see passing simply because most Red states and Purple states are supportive of things like this.

Number two would implement another Marsy's Law...pass...moving on...

Number three would lower the maximum allowed state income tax rate from 10% to 7%. Easy to pass in a state like North Carolina.

Number four is a photo ID amendment...another rubber stamp I'm afraid, North Carolina isn't that purple.

Number five would eliminate the Governor's right to make appointments to the state Board of Ethics and Elections Enforcement, transferring that power to the legislature. I think it'll pass, but it'll be close.

Number six would strip the Governor of the power to unilaterally fill judicial vacancies. They would be chosen by a commission, two top candidates would be chosen by the legislature, and the Governor would choose from the two. I see this one passing, but closely.

Two amendments and two laws here to speak of. The first one is Measure 1, which would require the state to establish a five-member ethics commission, ban foreign campaign contributions, require campaign finance information to be accessible to the public, and impose new restrictions on lobbyists. I think this one stands a good chance of being approved.

Measure 2 would amend the constitution to say that only US citizens could vote in elections in the state. It's a proposal that's kind of redundant, but I'm sure it will pass.

Measure 3 is a law that would legalise recreational marijuana over age 21 and implement an automatic expungement process for any and all persons who were convicted of possession of controlled substances that are now legal. I'm not sure that this one will pass. An August poll from public consulting firm Odney shows No leading with 56%, but LegalizeND has openly questioned the poll's veracity. Nonetheless, it's in line with ND's fairly conservative nature, particularly the expungement provision, which might be too much for many. With all that being considered, it;ll be fairly close but it'll be rejected.

Finally, there's Measure 4, which would provide volunteer EMTs a special licence plate. It would also let people who have these plates go into state parks for free. This will easily pass.

One amendment here to consider. Issue 1 would reduce drug possession and use to misdemeanours, forbid courts from sending felons on probation to prison for non-criminal probation violations, create a sentence credits programme for those in work or rehab programms, and require the money that the state will save on their reduced prison population from all of this be used on treatment, rehabilitation and victim's programmes. The polls have this one somewhat close, with yes averaging around 45% and no averaging 34%, but still some undecideds. Nonetheless, I think this one will pass.

Five proposed amendments here. SQ 793 would guarantee the right for optometrists to sell their wares in retail establishments. Basically, it would allow eyeglass shops in places like Wal-Mart or CVS since Oklahoma is one of only a few states that don't already allow this. I think this one will pass.

SQ 794 is (cue animation)The Blood of Those Who Fought For Their Freedom! No? OK, it's a Marsy's Law Amendment. Pass.

SQ 798 would unite the Governor and Lieutenant Governor onto a single ticket come election time. Another commonsense easily passable proposal. The latest poll was back in January, but it showed 58% approval.

SQ 800 would create the Oklahoma Vision Fund and use it to invest 5% of the state's annual oil and gas revenue. Every year, 4% of the fund's 5-year average would go to the state's general fund. This will be approved.

SQ 801 would allow localities to vote on implementing property taxes to fund school operations(currently, they can only do so for new construction). Another easy pass....sorry if this seems repetitive or unthinking, as I said, very few of these have polls as of yet, so I have to go by what I can figure out.

Five measures to consider here. First up is Measure 102, which would allows cities, towns, and counties to use municipal bond revenue to build affordable housing without having to actually own the properties themselves. A Riley Research poll from September-October shows 46% support with 23% undecided, so I think it'll pass.

Second is Measure 103, which would prohibit state or local authorities from imposing sales taxes on groceries. This is considered by many to be a thinly-veiled attempt at stopping Portland from passing a soda tax, but it's got quite a bit of support. The Riley Research poll shows 40% in favour with 38% opposed, so I can't make a definite call at this time.

Next, we have Measure 104. Currently, the state Constitution requires a 3/5 majority to pass bills that raise revenue, but in 2015, the state Supreme Court ruled that bills that ended tax exemptions, credits, or other tax breaks, didn't qualify as technically raising revenue. This would amend the constitution to say that ending tax breaks is raising revenue. This is another close one with Rejected leading 37-36%, which is to say not leading at all. I still think it'll be rejected, but it's too close to make a formal projection.

Fourth is Measure 105. This measure would repeal Oregon's current status as a sanctuary state. A Hoffman Research poll from September show No leading by 19 points while the Riley Research poll shows No leading by 11 points, so it will be rejected.

Finally, we have Measure 106. This would amend the state constitution to forbid state money or any public funds on abortion. A recent Riley Research poll shows that 56% of Oregonians are opposed to such a measure, so I think it will be rejected.

Three bond measures. Nothing to see here.

Just Amendment 1, which would make the state superintendent of education an appointed rather than elected position. It'll pass.

Two laws and three amendments. First up is Initiated Measure 24, which would ban individuals, PACs, companies, and just anyone from outside the state from making donations to in-state ballot question committees. It could pass, but I'm not sure it would survive a court battle.

Next we have Initiated Measure 25, which raises the tobacco tax by a dollar and increases the wholesale tax from 35% to 55%, the proceeds going to lowering the tuition of the state's technical institutes. Since it attacks cigarettes, this is another easy approval.

Next, we have Amendment W. This would replace the current state accountability and ethics commission with a stronger, seven-member Government Accountability Board. It would also cap campaign contributions for individual candidates, ban lobbyists from giving gifts to lawmakers, ban public officials from becoming lobbyists while in office and for two years after, cement the current simple majority requirements for initiatives into the constitution, and forbid the legislature from amending or repealing initiatives without the voters approval. I think this can pass...but with the contribution caps, the whole thing could die in court.

On to Amendment X. This would require a 55% supermajority for all constitutional amendments. There's no word on how this would potentially affect the amendments coming up alongside it if it gets ratified. I'm not sure it'll pass yet. I'll wait for this one.

Finally, Amendment Z. This is a single-subject rule that says amendments to the constitution should only concern one subject of interest. This one'll probably pass.

Three amendments, three laws, and an advisory question that I'm not even going to bother with. Being from Illinois, all we get is advisory questions, and they're almost never implemented.

First, Constitutional Amendment A would change the time required for active-duty soldiers and their spouses to receive a property tax exemption. Currently, it's for 200 days in a calendar year. If this passes, it becomes 200 days in a 365-day period, which greatly increases the number of people eligible. This one'll pass.

Next, Constitutional Amendment B would make private property that the state or a municipality is leasing from its owner exempt from property taxes. In 2016, a similar amendment that would've exempted tangible personal property was soundly defeated. This one expands the definition to all real estate, but I don't see it passing either.

Constitutional Amendment C would allow the legislature to call a special session during an emergency. It would last up to 10 days and could not start until at least 30 days after the regular session ended. Any appropriations made during this session could not exceed 1% of the state's budget. The Governor would still be able to call a special session, this would just give the House Speaker and the Senate President the same authority. I do believe it'll be approved.

Now for Prop 2. This law would legalise medical marijuana. Despite the opposition of the LDS Church, a May poll showed that 72% of voters supported the measure while an August poll shows 64% in favour. However, a recent Salt Lake Tribune poll showed the lead narrowing down to five points while a Rasmussen poll commissioned by Deseret News still has Yes leading by 30 points. They'll still likely approve it, but the odds have shrunk somewhat.

Next, Prop 3. This would let Utah join the states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA(yes, its still around). To fund the expansion, the state sales tax would go up from 4.7% to 4.85%. 63% of voters approve this in the May poll I mentioned before.

Finally, Prop 4. This would create a seven-member independent redistricting commission to map federal and state legislative districts. They would send their map to the state's chief justice, he would decide to approve it, and the legislature would get the final say. An August poll shows that Yes has a 34-point lead but that 30% are still undecided. Nonetheless, I think it'll pass.

Two amendments here. Question 1 would remove a current restriction on where a disabled soldier's spouse can have their property taxes exempted. Right now, they're only exempt in the place they were living in when the soldier got disabled. If it's removed, they can still be exempt even if they move to another place in Virginia. This also pass.

Question 2 would allow the legislature to authorise local governments to provide partial property tax exemptions to homes in flood-prone areas if their added value comes from flood damage mitigation measures. This will also pass.

Four measures to look at. Initiative 940 would implement a good faith test that would determine when deadly force by police is justifiable, require police to receive de-escalation and mental health training, and require police to render first aid when necessary. This was actually passed by the Legislature as HB 3003 earlier this year, but the State Supreme Court ruled that the law and an amendment that was set to take effect the day after implementation was unconstitutional, so this measure is going back on the ballot. I think it'll pass if only because it's quite popular in the polls.

Initiative 1631 would impose a carbon tax of $15 per metric tonne starting in 2020, going up by $2 annually until the state reaches its 2035 emissions goals are met and its 2050 goals are on track, the proceeds going to fund two environmental funds, one for air pollution and green energy, and another for water pollution and forest preservation. Considering that Washington just rejected a carbon tax in 2016 by a pretty good margin, I don't see this one passing.

Initiative 1634 would ban counties and municipalities from levying taxes on groceries. The state would still be allowed to levy sales taxes on them. I don't see this one passing right now, but I could be proving wrong by the polls.

Initiative 1639 is a fairly sweeping measure that would raise the minimum age for buying handguns and semi-automatic assault rifles to age 21, expand the state's background check and waiting period requirements to semiautomatic assault rifles(currently only for handguns), require proof of passage of a firearms safety programme, require a $25 firearms fee with proceed going to the states mental health services, and make keeping a firearm in a place where convicted felons could reach it a Class C Felony while requiring firearms dealers to at least offer to sell trigger locks. An October Crosscut/Elway poll shows 59% support for the measure including 26% of Republicans and 91% of Democrats, so this one will pass.

The last state has a similar measure as the first: Amendment 1, which would say that nothing in the constitution secures or protects the right to abortion. I think that this one could be rejected.

Amendment 2 would give the legislature the right to set and reduce the state judiciary's budget. West Virginia is the only state where the judiciary sets its own budget independent of the legislature. This will pass thanks to the explosive scandal that WV is currently embroiled in where their chief justice was spending $30,000 on each of five couches and is now on the verge of being removed.

[San Lumen]

Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.

[Shrillland]

Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.

Mine almost never does either, not least because it's rigged to where only the legislature can bring them up in most cases. Citizen initiatives are limited to a narrow scope on constitutional questions in Illinois, is New York that bad?

[San Lumen]

Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.

Mine almost never does either, not least because it's rigged to where only the legislature can bring them up in most cases. Citizen initiatives are limited to a narrow scope on constitutional questions in Illinois, is New York that bad?

In New York they can only occur via legislatively referred amendments. I dont believe there are any restrictions on them.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

First Poll Update of the (Third) Second Megathread:
Florida Senate- Scott vs Nelson- Gravis
Nelson 47%
Scott 43%
Nelson +4

Tennessee Senate- Blackburn vs Bredesen- Emerson
Bredesen 43%
Blackburn 37%
Bredesen +6

New Jersey Senate- Hugin vs Menendez- Gravis
Menendez 43%
Hugin 41%
Menendez +2

Florida Governor- GOP Primary- Gravis
DeSantis 35%
Putnam 29%
White 4%
Rivas 4%
DeSantis +6

Florida Governor- Dem Primary- Gravis
Graham 27%
Greene 18%
Levine 17%
Gillum 10%
Graham +9

Florida Governor- DeSantis vs Graham- Gravis
Graham 42%
DeSantis 38%
Graham +4

Florida Governor- Putnam vs Graham- Gravis
Putnam 40%
Graham 39%
Putnam +1

Florida Governor- DeSantis vs Levine- Gravis
DeSantis 40%
Levine 38%
DeSantis +2

Florida Governor- Putnam vs Levine- Gravis
Putnam 43%
Levine 38%
Putnam +5

Michigan Governor- GOP Primary- JMC Analytics
Schuette 25%
Calley 17%
Colbeck 10%
Hines 4%
Schuette +8

[Freezic Vast]

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

[Morgantown West Virginia]

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

Gravis is a conservative poll, but weird that they have NJ closer than FL.

[Shofercia]

California's like a girl gone wild with bond referendums. $14.377 billion in bonds this year - da fuck? Especially after this: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 812264.php

California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say. “Yes, the state’s budget is balanced if you are looking at what they are required to spend cash on this year, but not when you look at their expenses,” said Gabe Petek, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor’s.

It's like we're addicted to debt. That's Props 1, 3, and 4. Prop 2 simply moves money that's in one part of the budget to another. Proposition 5 is not a good one, as that will hit school budgets, first and foremost, and those are already struggling. Prop 6 is a mixed bag; the tax on vehicles and fuel is cool and helpful, but California's Legislature needs to reign in their spending. I wish Prop 6 was split into two parts, one addressing the tax, the other addressing future increases.

Prop 7 is what happens when we're bored. Don't really care about it. Prop 8 is good, reigns in a small part of healthcare waste. Less waste is a good thing. Prop 9 - lulz! That's really all I have to say. Prop 10 - good for property owners, bad for renters, and will upset the balance, so I'm going with "no", we're not ready for it as a state. Prop 11 - why didn't we have this before? It sort of makes sense for emergency workers to respond in case of an emergency. Kind of sad we have to vote on it. Prop 12 - animal rights activists versus poor Latino immigrants and inner city blacks, going to be interesting to watch.

[San Lumen]

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

Gravis does not have a very good track record but with the spending by Hugin I could see it being a closer than expected race. But given the demographics and lean of New Jersey I can't see Menendez losing

[Valrifell]

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

To be fair, the charges levied against him for taking bribes from an eye doctor from Florida were only just very recently dropped.

[Valrifell]

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

Gravis does not have a very good track record but with the spending by Hugin I could see it being a closer than expected race. But given the demographics and lean of New Jersey I can't see Menendez losing

I think his legal troubles will really bite him in the ass here, but I don't think he's gonna lose just closer than it otherwise should be.

Quite frankly there are no good options in this race.