Sweden: More than just furniture(Government Found)

[The Eternal Aulus]

SD majority would be a funny surprise, that said I hope for Moderate victory.


Left wing extremism is common in Sweden afaik.

But I don't think Ulf Kristersson will become the new prime minister for Sweden, unless his alliance can get a majority without the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates officially don't want to collaborate with them

Electoral promises are usually the first promises to be broken.

[San Carlos Islands]

SD majority would be a funny surprise, that said I hope for Moderate victory.


Left wing extremism is common in Sweden afaik.

But I don't think Ulf Kristersson will become the new prime minister for Sweden, unless his alliance can get a majority without the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates officially don't want to collaborate with them

KD candidates have came out in support of SD. I see something possibly happening there.

[Thermodolia]

But I don't think Ulf Kristersson will become the new prime minister for Sweden, unless his alliance can get a majority without the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates officially don't want to collaborate with them

KD candidates have came out in support of SD. I see something possibly happening there.

Isn’t KD supposed to get wiped out?

[Painisia]

KD candidates have came out in support of SD. I see something possibly happening there.

Isn’t KD supposed to get wiped out?

Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2018

They are now at 5.9%

[San Carlos Islands]

Isn’t KD supposed to get wiped out?

Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2018

They are now at 5.9%

They surged late.

[Thermodolia]

Isn’t KD supposed to get wiped out?

Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2018

They are now at 5.9%

Dang

[Croaky]

>croak

[The Huskar Social Union]

Any idea when we will start seeing results?

[Painisia]

Any idea when we will start seeing results?

20:00 Stockholm time

[Bienenhalde]

Isn’t KD supposed to get wiped out?

Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2018

They are now at 5.9%

Yes!!! Go KD!!!

[Painisia]

Nope:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... tion,_2018

They are now at 5.9%

Yes!!! Go KD!!!

I can't wait for it!

[Trumptonium1]

Preliminary voting turnout figures are showing strong rises in counties where SD performed well in 2014.

The Skane region, which had a 7% larger vote for SD than the nation at-large in 2014, has recorded the largest rise in turnout by almost 9% in early voting (reported two hours ago, shame no one posted). The Skane region is home to the city of Malmo, which has become notorious for gang violence and shootings for locals and in the national media, as well as for being called the 'rape capital of Europe' in international right-wing media over the past few years. Whether this is support or reaction against SD in their homeland remains to be seen.

Additionally, while the polling is genuinely terrible at the moment (SD is swinging between 1st and 3rd - 9% vote margin over the past week) the polling company which came closest to the vote in 2014 was Sentio. Those who remember/were engaged in politics back then might be aware that SD performed significantly better in the election result than their polling average, and this has been blamed on a shy/intimidation factor. The various polls over the last fortnight before the election in 2014 predicted an average of 10% for SD, they ended up with 13%. Sentio, which conducted a strictly anonymous poll, ended up predicting 12.7% for SD the week before the election which was almost bang on (-0.2%) even though they were derided for it.

This time around, Sentio is also the polling company predicting the largest share of the vote for SD. Or at least from the domestic polling companies. Sentio is going for 24% flat, although they were predicting 26% in June. Either result would put them as #1 with a strong lead over other parties including 2% over S and a huge 6% over the Moderates. Such a result would produce 43% of the national vote, mathematically just about under the majority of seats.

However, Sentio massively overestimated Green and Left seats last time, and underestimated the Moderates by 3 and slightly overestimated the Social Democrats. The Liberals, Christian Democrats, Centre, Swedish Democrats and Feminist Initiative were pretty much exactly as they predicted.

Using their most recent polling results, the Swedish election would produce something along these lines: (I am not saying this is correct, but it's the best poll re-run there is given the last election)
Social Democrats - 81 seats (down 32) - down by 8.9% -- their lowest seat share & total number since 1917
The Moderates - 66 seats (down 17) - down by 5%
Swedish Democrats - 88 seats (up 46) - up by 11.9% -- SD would be the first party to exceed S in 101 years, which is what makes this result unlikely
Green Party - 16 seats (down 9) - down by 2.5%
Centre Party - 22 seats (no change) - down by 0.1%
Left Party - 39 seats (up 18) - up by 5%
Liberals - 19 seats (no change) - down by 0.2%
Christian Democrats - 18 seats (up 2) - up 0.4%

With 175 seats needed, the following are realistic combinations:
(Literally struggling to find any)
Possibility is a mass coalition of 'anti-racists' - which would put together the Liberals, the Left Party (these two don't like each other), the Green Party, the Centre Party and the Social Democrats for a very very weak coalition of 177 seats.

Alternative 2 is a Grand Coalition between the Moderates and the Social Democrats, but they will require at least two more players. The most likely here is the Centre Party, up to 169 seats. Then you're juggling between the Liberals or the Greens to find a final partner, as KD is unlikely to agree.

The third alternative is the Moderates led by the Swedish Democrats, right up to 154 seats. They would need just one or two partners, this most likely being the Christian Democrats whose leader recently started adopting a rural version of SD's anti-migration policies. This would still require another partner, however -- showing how utterly disfunctional this election could be for the Riksdag, almost certainly guaranteeing a minority government again.


However, even if they do get the vote shares correct, it should be known that 310 seats in Sweden are dedicated to constituencies and only 39 are adjustment seats dedicated to making sure the vote is proportional. While most on the thread seem to be aware that 4% is the national threshold, a party with 12% of the vote in a constituency can be elected. At present there are 8 independents sitting in the Swedish Parliament, and only 95.96% of the votes in the last election went to parties which received seats in the end.

[Trumptonium1]

Since I've got time to kill and exit polls are coming out in 15 minutes...

For the lols and to test my maths and to overly-trust the Sentio poll (this is surely going to go wrong) I adjusted the numbers from the 2014 election and the method a little to come up with the following potential seat shares)

Social Democrats - 80 seats
Moderates - 75 seats
Swedish Democrats - 93 seats
Green Party - loses all seats, out of Riksdag, 3.8% of the vote
Centre Party - 22 seats
Left Party - 42 seats
Liberals - 19 seats
Christian Democrats - 18 seats

This would basically rule out any form of a left-of-centre coalition. Moderates could go with Centre to align with the Social Democrats.

Otherwise it's KD-SD-Moderates with SD leading.

So the Moderates would be the main beneficiaries of this model which excludes the Greens as being thrown out on their face.

[Trumptonium1]

Anyways, enough of my hypotheticals

here's an exit poll:

S-S&D: 25.4%
M-EPP: 18.4%
SD-ECR: 16.3%
V-LEFT: 9.8%
C-ALDE: 9.4%
KD-EPP: 6.6%
MP-G/EFA: 5.8%
L-ALDE: 5.7%

Very small gains for SD, KD and Left, small gains for Centre, big losses for S and Moderates.

------------------
Most likely seat shares -- (my calculations, depends on utjämningsmandat)
S: 91 seats
M: 66 seats
SD: 58 seats
Left: 35 seats
Centre: 33 seats
ChrisDems: 24 seats
Green Party: 21 seats
Liberal People's: 21 seats

[Herskerstad]

The formulae being touted at least here in Norway, and I am not quick to accredit it immediately, goes something like this.

Social Democrats will have their weakest election in forever. They are still a huge party, but they are bleeding voter confidence and might be reduced from a near hedgemonic power into just a large political power in the long run.

Moderates have split unsuprisingly, but Swedish Democrats is not the only one absorbing their votes although that's where they are principally losing votes. The projections here do tout said party to land around 20% which while strong is not putting them in the lead of anything. Rather a lot of votes have gone into the lesser interest parties.

Swedish Democrats is hoping they will rank high enough to either force the hedgemonic powers, be it M or Social democrats to negotiate with them or ally with each-other, as they will no doubt clown things up even more and become even weaker which will almost certainly render SD the prime leader come the election next time. Either way, looks like almost 40% of the Swedish electorate has changed their vote from last time in one fashion or another which is substantial.

[Painisia]

Sweden Democrats: 19,2% Shocking

Social Democrats: 26,2% Bad result

Christian Democrats: 7,4% YES!!

It`s seems that the Alliance has got the majority, but it is a dead run

[Major-Tom]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... ction-live

Exit polls looking bad for the Swedish Democrats.

[Trumptonium1]

Another poll:
S-S&D: 26.2%
SD-ECR: 19.2%
M-EPP: 17.8%
V-LEFT: 9.0%
C-ALDE: 8.9%
KD-EPP: 7.4%
MP-G/EFA: 4.2%
L-ALDE: 5.5%

Either poll produces lowest vote share for Social Democrats since 1908.

[Major-Tom]

Another poll:
S-S&D: 26.2%
SD-ECR: 19.2%
M-EPP: 17.8%
V-LEFT: 9.0%
C-ALDE: 8.9%
KD-EPP: 7.4%
MP-G/EFA: 4.2%
L-ALDE: 5.5%

Either poll produces lowest vote share for Social Democrats since 1908.

Also not necessarily a bad thing. I'm a socdem, but European social democratic parties need a more consistent message other than mere "wishy washy happy politics" to continue to win votes. Hopefully this sends them a message, probably will not.

[Trumptonium1]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/sep/09/sweden-election-live

Exit polls looking bad for the Swedish Democrats.

Are they?

Either exit poll means the entirety of the Riksdag has to work together to overcome their differences because of SD seat share. They're effectively blocking effective government.

Not that I am sad about either result: Sweden is the closest to a failed state and it's great if SD don't win so their country can be made an example of.

[Philjia]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/sep/09/sweden-election-live

Exit polls looking bad for the Swedish Democrats.

Are they?

Either exit poll means the entirety of the Riksdag has to work together to overcome their differences because of SD seat share. They're effectively blocking effective government.

Not that I am sad about either result: Sweden is the closest to a failed state and it's great if SD don't win so their country can be made an example of.

I'm sure they can muddle along. Who needs a government when you've got a functional civil service, anyway?

[Major-Tom]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/sep/09/sweden-election-live

Exit polls looking bad for the Swedish Democrats.

Are they?

Either exit poll means the entirety of the Riksdag has to work together to overcome their differences because of SD seat share. They're effectively blocking effective government.

Not that I am sad about either result: Sweden is the closest to a failed state and it's great if SD don't win so their country can be made an example of.

Yup. The Swedish Democrats, and the broader right-populist pundits, have been saying for weeks how SD could easily win the most seats. On top of that, even left leaning sites like The Guardian, NYT, etc have all been "warning" about how SD could win the most seats as well. They're underperforming substantially from what was expected, which is never a good thing for right-populist parties, as they're generally expected to overperform a fair amount.

And, please. Sweden is far from perfect, and more restraint and accountability in regards to the refugee crisis would've been a good thing. The government fucked that up. But it's still a high-income, relatively peaceful, developed country that has problems. That doesn't mean it is close to a "failed state." It is far from some perfect, Scandinavian utopia some folks may laud it as, but not some post-apocalyptic hellscape some other folks may label it as.

[The Liberated Territories]

Sweden Democrats: 19,2% Shocking

Social Democrats: 26,2% Bad result

Christian Democrats: 7,4% YES!!

It`s seems that the Alliance has got the majority, but it is a dead run

The only question is who will sell out when coalitions are created.

[Major-Tom]

Now, as a caveat, I know sometimes exit polls and actual results produce different outcomes. I'm not saying that the SD is going to "lose miserably" here, more so that the exit polls are looking pretty poor for them. But, time will tell.

[The South Falls]

Hopefully, the SD loses. We don't need more rightism in Sweden.