Sweden: More than just furniture(Government Found)

[Shrillland]

Damn....the S-coalition won’t be able to do it without some kind of grand coalition with the Alliance…which they might be able to do since some of the smaller alliance parties remain adamant in their opposition to SD.

I don’t see the Centre Party budging on working with SD. That means we could see a continuation of the current minority Government, but I don’t know how willing the Alliance is to continue the arrangement.

The December Agreement is slated to last until 2022, so the Alliance will probably adhere, only KD's walked away from it, and they won't even be in the Riksdag this time around.

[Thermodolia]

My results

It shouldn't surprise anyone that I scored highly with SD

[Northern Davincia]

My results

It shouldn't surprise anyone that I scored highly with SD

Those are rookie numbers, you've got to pump those numbers up.

[Bienenhalde]

I'm trying to find news stories about why they've slumped. but they're hard to find. SVT doesn't seem to say and neither does anyone else for that matter. If there's someone from Sweden here, I'd love to know the answer. I did find one news story that's concerning though: https://www.thelocal.se/20180820/international-observers-to-monitor-swedish-election-for-first-time

Granted, the OSCE says it's perfectly normal, but still....

I also found this from SVT: https://valkompassen.svt.se/

I got 70% for V: https://valkompassen.svt.se/sverige/riksdag/match/00e7-b552393c-4f92-4922-aaa9-435b54c7732f

How did you do?

My results: https://valkompassen.svt.se/sverige/riksdag/match/00e8-a89a0f97-d1e3-4859-948b-84bf74945d31

[Freezic Vast]

https://www.thelocal.se/20180822/early- ... e-heats-up

Social Democrats (25.1 percent)
Moderates (19.3 percent)
Sweden Democrats (19.2 percent)
Centre Party (10.0 percent)
Left Party (8.7 percent)
Green Party (6.2 percent)
Liberals (5.3 percent)
Christian Democrats (3.5 percent)
Others (2.7 percent)

This was a recent poll done just a day or so ago and it has the SD behind the Moderates by just 0.1 point. The chance of a coalition with the SD is starting to shrink, with poll numbers suddenly declining, they could end up in a close third behind the Moderates.

[Trumptonium1]

A more recent poll from today shows them leading the Moderates but behind Socdems
https://skop.se/politik/2018/08/skops-v ... usti-2018/
(S: 24.5%, M: 17.1%, SD: 20.1%)

Another poll released the day before yours from YouGov shows SD leading the way at 24.2%, followed by S at 21.9% then Moderates at 15.8%.

Looks like the polls are pretty useless.

[Freezic Vast]

A more recent poll shows them leading the Moderates but behind Socdems
https://skop.se/politik/2018/08/skops-v ... usti-2018/
(S: 24.5%, M: 17.1%, SD: 20.1%)

Another poll released the day before yours from YouGov shows SD leading the way at 24.2%, followed by S at 21.9% then Moderates at 15.8%.

Looks like the polls are pretty useless.

So basically it could go either way.

[Parti Ouvrier]

I'd go for critical support for the Left Party.

[Othelos]

Any idea on what kind of governing coalition will be formed? Both the right and left will be much too weak to form a government without the Swedish Dems or reaching across the aisle to form a centrist coalition (like in Germany).

[Shrillland]

Any idea on what kind of governing coalition will be formed? Both the right and left will be much too weak to form a government without the Swedish Dems or reaching across the aisle to form a centrist coalition (like in Germany).

The best possibility right now would have to be some kind of grand coalition. However, they could just keep to the December Agreement(which averted a snap election in 2014) since the only Alliance party that was opposed won't even be in the Riksdag this time around unless they're lucky(they're polling at 4.5%, just above the threshold). The other option is that the Swedish Dems get the lead and coax the Moderates into a coalition, which would lead to a complete realignment of Swedish politics since the rest of the Alliance has already turned Akesson down flat.

[Othelos]

Any idea on what kind of governing coalition will be formed? Both the right and left will be much too weak to form a government without the Swedish Dems or reaching across the aisle to form a centrist coalition (like in Germany).

The best possibility right now would have to be some kind of grand coalition. However, they could just keep to the December Agreement(which averted a snap election in 2014) since the only Alliance party that was opposed won't even be in the Riksdag this time around unless they're lucky(they're polling at 4.5%, just above the threshold). The other option is that the Swedish Dems get the lead and coax the Moderates into a coalition, which would lead to a complete realignment of Swedish politics since the rest of the Alliance has already turned Akesson down flat.

Those seem like the most plausible scenarios. After reading a bit about it just now, they will probably just maintain the minority government/the December Agreement, like you suggested.

[Herskerstad]

A more recent poll shows them leading the Moderates but behind Socdems
https://skop.se/politik/2018/08/skops-v ... usti-2018/
(S: 24.5%, M: 17.1%, SD: 20.1%)

Another poll released the day before yours from YouGov shows SD leading the way at 24.2%, followed by S at 21.9% then Moderates at 15.8%.

Looks like the polls are pretty useless.

So basically it could go either way.

I have seen others where S leads, followed by a knife-fight between the SD and M.

Generally speaking election polls due to differing metrics can be hard to quantify. The best way I like to take from them is looking at the most accurate predictors last time, but even that's not fool-proof.

Feeling wise since I just was in Sweden is SD will do good, probably better than expected since the prime minister is seemingly surprised at how the violent issues stem forward, and you got to be pretty far removed from the ground to be in that headspace regardless if you are pro or anti immigration.

[The Eternal Aulus]

Moderates.

[Trumptonium1]

This polling is atrociously bad. Within polls conducted between Friday 31st and Friday 7th, SD vote has fluctuated between being third at just 16.3% of the vote (+3.4%) to being first with 24.8% of the vote (+11.9%), a margin of 8.5%. That's just awful. I wonder what the reason is, although I see already that the lowest was a telephone poll and the highest was an online poll, which makes me wonder if there's something similar to a Shy Tory / Trump factor as in the UK 2015 and for Trump.

It's still quite substantially below the record 29% they polled in June, though.

Either way I think I will put their vote between 25 to 30 percent, so slightly above the peaks of the last week and high above the average. Although 22.5 - 27.5 looks more a bit more certain. They could receive less, but a drop from their 2014 vote is nigh impossible.

Tomorrow we get exit polls. I wonder if they'll be as bad as the current polls.

Regardless the winners here tonight are SD. They successfully threw their policies onto the Social Democrats and the Moderates and now both are pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet as SD, just with more family-friendly language. They successfully broke up the media blackout of immigration debate, of crime and violence and gave a voice to a million Swedes whose voices were unheard, suppressed or ignored. Whatever the government coalition looks like, the other two main parties have pledged deportations of failed asylum seekers (in the tens of thousands), a reduction in immigration, aggressive assimilation programs, deportations of unintegrated migrants and outlawing universities from discriminating against native Swedes in admissions. SD won regardless of the vote, but they will be there to take charge if these promises do not come to fruition.

Gone are the days of as recent as 2010 when TV networks never mentioned migrant crime, dared to put on debates about migration and when Sweden was criticised by international election observers for conducting an unfair election as SD was prevented from any air time and their campaign videos were boycotted by TV networks. The chairman of the liberal party in Denmark called Sweden a 'banana republic' for their election rules in 2010 preventing free and fair campaigns. He was certainly right. Look what SD had to go through to connect with voters on the ground to tell them that they're not alone and there's a party who agrees with their views they were scared to express.

[Shrillland]

It is now Election Day, so all of you in Sweden, go vote! Polls will close and media coverage start at:

20:00 CEST
19:00 BST
14:00 EDT

[Dahon]

... must I brace myself for the worst?

[Shrillland]

... must I brace myself for the worst?

I don't think it'll be that bad myself. I think the Social Democrats will pull off the lead.

[The Liberated Territories]

Klassiskt liberala partiet. Betting on 0.04% baby!

[San Carlos Islands]

God, I'm so pumped! Can we take Sweden back? It's looking quite possible!

[Nettunia]

If the far right wins, how will this affect the number of straw goats burned per year? I hope they discussed this during campaign.

[Painisia]

I first chose Centern, but now I have made up my mind. Go KD!


I think Stefan Löfven will continue as prime minister after this election, if the opinion polls are right. Ulf Kristersson has denied a government with SD and chances of a new prime minister is ripe. But the Sweden Democrats might.......suprise me.........with a majority result. But the period after the election will be the real deal. Stefan Löfven might find it harder to pass a budget and SD`s position might threaten the Left alliance. And there is a possibility that Annie Lööf and Centern might switch side to the Left. As a response to the rise of the Sweden Democrats, Vänsterpartiet has enjoyed a significant rise in opinion polls, so the extremes are becoming the hot thing in Sweden nowadays. The Green Party, instead of Kristdemokraterna, might face the 4% threshold closer now.....

But let`s stop talking about opinion polls, shall we? I am prepared for the results and I am pumped up for it. But Sweden is facing a hard time. Division among the population and marginalization will be more widespread. Let`s enjoy a polarized society!

[Painisia]

But the Sweden Democrats might shock everyone this night. It was a blatant mistake by SVT (Swedish Broadcasting Company) to condemn Jimmie Åkesson`s statement about Muslim immigrants, as the Sweden Democrats might paint themselves as the victim of "bullying". And now there have been news about verbal abuse against SD voters at a polling station. Fasten your seat belts and prepare yourselves for a bumpy ride........

[San Carlos Islands]

I'm concerned about all the anti-SD voter suppression. It's sickening.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/10 ... ews-latest

That's not even the only event of this, I have seen multiple other reports of SD members being threatened.

[The Eternal Aulus]

SD majority would be a funny surprise, that said I hope for Moderate victory.

I'm concerned about all the anti-SD voter suppression. It's sickening.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/10 ... ews-latest

That's not even the only event of this, I have seen multiple other reports of SD members being threatened.

Left wing extremism is common in Sweden afaik.

[Painisia]

SD majority would be a funny surprise, that said I hope for Moderate victory.

I'm concerned about all the anti-SD voter suppression. It's sickening.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/10 ... ews-latest

That's not even the only event of this, I have seen multiple other reports of SD members being threatened.

Left wing extremism is common in Sweden afaik.

But I don't think Ulf Kristersson will become the new prime minister for Sweden, unless his alliance can get a majority without the Sweden Democrats. The Moderates officially don't want to collaborate with them