Is Oil Depletion a real thing, and will it collapse nations?

[The South Falls]

So, all we have to do is not suppress or ignore the scientists work for political reasons or regress into a violent theocratic set of resource-warring nations and we're good.

We're good.

....




We're good.

Right?

That seems to be the path that Trump wants this country on. That's why he wants that space force.

[Yagon]

So, all we have to do is not suppress or ignore the scientists work for political reasons or regress into a violent theocratic set of resource-warring nations and we're good.

We're good.

....




We're good.

Right?

That seems to be the path that Trump wants this country on. That's why he wants that space force.

I dunno if it's just Trump. I'm not especially smart or educated, but it sometimes feels like history is taking a turn towards it, fast changing world, rapid consumption of limited resources, humans have never really existed or organized at the scales we have in the last century, I think our hierarchical protocols and community structures are having a turbulent period of adaption, and not every species in nature survives a test of adaptation.

I'm a Debbie Downer...

[Terra Novae Libero]

That seems to be the path that Trump wants this country on. That's why he wants that space force.

I dunno if it's just Trump. I'm not especially smart or educated, but it sometimes feels like history is taking a turn towards it, fast changing world, rapid consumption of limited resources, humans have never really existed or organized at the scales we have in the last century, I think our hierarchical protocols and community structures are having a turbulent period of adaption, and not every species in nature survives a test of adaptation.

I'm a Debbie Downer...

Who knows. It's certainly more turbulent than usual right now, but this all could just be the effects of a generational shift.

[Yagon]

I dunno if it's just Trump. I'm not especially smart or educated, but it sometimes feels like history is taking a turn towards it, fast changing world, rapid consumption of limited resources, humans have never really existed or organized at the scales we have in the last century, I think our hierarchical protocols and community structures are having a turbulent period of adaption, and not every species in nature survives a test of adaptation.

I'm a Debbie Downer...

Who knows. It's certainly more turbulent than usual right now, but this all could just be the effects of a generational shift.

I think generational shifts have been happening more and more quickly, an acceleration of an acceleration. Part of it I think is technology driven, particularly telecommunications and information structures, our "technology" of marketing/psychology/propaganda and how they are amplified/distorted/affected by technology.

We were hunter gatherers for a really long time, and developed a lot during that time, agriculture changed us, metal working....but the written word...and then the printing press...then computers, the computers networked, then everything networked, then working quantum computers with superposition state qbits running simulation algorithms that can approach reality to tolerances almost indistinguishable from reality itself, to creating worlds and intelligences and then merging our minds into a networked meta-mind unlike anything this world has ever seen...

The generations are now passing faster than biological generations. Combined with our limitations (and those of our ecosystem, that we now affect in unprecedented ways), if the change is not carefully guided, the birth of our successor Being could miscarry, and we would be left a stillborn God on a rock, perhaps in a vast graveyard of similar ones.

[Herador]

Oil is a finite resource, some countries build their economies off oil exports. The math seems to add up in a certain direction, no?

[Yagon]

Oil is a finite resource, some countries build their economies off oil exports. The math seems to add up in a certain direction, no?

Yeah, it makes me think of Damon's rant in Syriana, "It's running out."

Already we see in Venezuela what happens when a majoritive portion of a government's revenues are from oil. I wonder how much countries are in that position (or with sufficient dependency that they'd be non-viable without it).....OPEC may change its acronym to OFUK

[Old Garcy]

The first oil wells drilled relied on oil gushing from its source and flowing down a tunnel into a tank. Nowadays, oils are being extracted from sands, extracted from sea rigs, and from other more challenging sources. The word "Oil" covers a wide variety of prevalent chemicals, that, as a result, are found in many different places. Right now, we are not just extracting oil, we are extracting the oil that can be most cheaply recovered from the ground. As these sources dry up, we will tap into more expensive sources of oil. Since the price of oil will rise gradually, if all political considerations are smoothed out, this will give alternative energy sources plenty of time to push oil out of the energy market.

[Yagon]

The first oil wells drilled relied on oil gushing from its source and flowing down a tunnel into a tank. Nowadays, oils are being extracted from sands, extracted from sea rigs, and from other more challenging sources. The word "Oil" covers a wide variety of prevalent chemicals, that, as a result, are found in many different places. Right now, we are not just extracting oil, we are extracting the oil that can be most cheaply recovered from the ground. As these sources dry up, we will tap into more expensive sources of oil. Since the price of oil will rise gradually, if all political considerations are smoothed out, this will give alternative energy sources plenty of time to push oil out of the energy market.

You raise a vitally important consideration. In your view, how does the outlook for that smoothing look? (I understand that given the scales, time, and complexity of that issue, it may well be difficult to pin down to more than conjecture that contains many more "if's".

[Herador]

Oil is a finite resource, some countries build their economies off oil exports. The math seems to add up in a certain direction, no?

Yeah, it makes me think of Damon's rant in Syriana, "It's running out."

Already we see in Venezuela what happens when a majoritive portion of a government's revenues are from oil. I wonder how much countries are in that position (or with sufficient dependency that they'd be non-viable without it).....OPEC may change its acronym to OFUK

Which would be the real danger, I think. Countries like Venezuela or Kuwait run out? Bummer. A country like Saudi Arabia runs out though, and you have the makings of a shitstorm right there.

[-Ocelot-]

It's complicated.

We are running out of cheap oil, that's for sure. But we will never run out of oil in general, not only because it can by synthesized but because more expensive oil wells and extraction methods are nowhere near depletion.

The idea is that, after peak oil occurs and oil starts becoming more and more expensive, economies will slowly adapt by following the rules of the free market and finding better or cheaper alternatives. Unfortunately, no nation is actively preparing for a post peak-oil era because, you guessed it, the free market dogma forbids thinking about anything past quarterly profits. Renewable energy is getting better and better but it's still a supplement to coal and oil, electric cars exist but they are nowhere near mainstream production, developed countries consume oil-based products like crazy and the disposable products are still ever present. What makes it worse is that, as the article states, we don't know when peak oil will occur. It may happen in 2030 or 2035 or it could occur before 2030 for one reason or another.

Plastics, electronics and other important products will still be around because these account only for a fraction of total production. It's fuel that will have to change. Cars, ships, aircraft etc. is where the majority of oil production goes.

[Isilanka]

I'm not optimistic.

"Oh fuck, maybe it's time to change something, what will my children do ? Never mind, I'll be dead in 40 years anyway, DRILL BABY DRILL" seems to be our elite's motto since a good 50 years.

As usual, anticipation is key. If we wait for oil to become very expensive to start thinking about swithcing to a massive use of renewable energies and alternative means of transports, it'll be a goddamn mess.
Can you even imagine begin to adapt the US to a post-oil economy with much less cars and more public transports ? That's 60 years of regional planning and urbanism you have to change.

[Yagon]

It's complicated.

We are running out of cheap oil, that's for sure. But we will never run out of oil in general, not only because it can by synthesized but because more expensive oil wells and extraction methods are nowhere near depletion.

The idea is that, after peak oil occurs and oil starts becoming more and more expensive, economies will slowly adapt by following the rules of the free market and finding better or cheaper alternatives. Unfortunately, no nation is actively preparing for a post peak-oil era because, you guessed it, the free market dogma forbids thinking about anything past quarterly profits. Renewable energy is getting better and better but it's still a supplement to coal and oil, electric cars exist but they are nowhere near mainstream production, developed countries consume oil-based products like crazy and the disposable products are still ever present. What makes it worse is that, as the article states, we don't know when peak oil will occur. It may happen in 2030 or 2035 or it could occur before 2030 for one reason or another.

Plastics, electronics and other important products will still be around because these account only for a fraction of total production. It's fuel that will have to change. Cars, ships, aircraft etc. is where the majority of oil production goes.

So that "locally sourced" thing won't just be fashionable, it will become economically necessary?

[Yagon]

I'm not optimistic.

"Oh fuck, maybe it's time to change something, what will my children do ? Never mind, I'll be dead in 40 years anyway, DRILL BABY DRILL" seems to be our elite's motto since a good 50 years.

As usual, anticipation is key. If we wait for oil to become very expensive to start thinking about swithcing to a massive use of renewable energies and alternative means of transports, it'll be a goddamn mess.
Can you even imagine begin to adapt the US to a post-oil economy with much less cars and more public transports ? That's 60 years of regional planning and urbanism you have to change.

I think "goddamn mess" might be pretty likely.

Shit.

[Isilanka]

I'm not optimistic.

"Oh fuck, maybe it's time to change something, what will my children do ? Never mind, I'll be dead in 40 years anyway, DRILL BABY DRILL" seems to be our elite's motto since a good 50 years.

As usual, anticipation is key. If we wait for oil to become very expensive to start thinking about swithcing to a massive use of renewable energies and alternative means of transports, it'll be a goddamn mess.
Can you even imagine begin to adapt the US to a post-oil economy with much less cars and more public transports ? That's 60 years of regional planning and urbanism you have to change.

I think "goddamn mess" might be pretty likely.

Shit.

Well, if we tackle the problem without any anticipation, yes. After all our entire modern, industrial sociely has been built on the concept of cheap oil - and generally speaking cheap resources.
At the same time it can also be a powerful factor of social, economic and political change.

[Hakons]

Most of the talk about Peak Oil Theory is overblown. People have been talking about the production decline for decades, and they keep conveniently moving away the projected time we hit the peak. It is true that oil is a finite resource, but there are still plenty of sources, and plenty more with better technology. It's more likely we'll reach peak demand, where oil production gradually decreases as most nations switch to renewable energy.

[Valrifell]

We will never run out of oil in the ground.

It'll be far too expensive to extract from the ground before to make it worth it before we drain it all. We have several decades by the strictest estimates so it'll take a special kind of lacking foresight to have depletion be a real problem.

That seems very reasonable. So, if we change from depletion in a general sense to "depletion of cost-effectively recoverable reserves", do you think getting to that point will happen before we are able to transition to other means of powering civilization?

Will this be complicated by geopolitics, perhaps leading to critically disruptive armed conflict over remaining cost-effectively recoverable oil?

Well, it'll probably happen a bit before hard depletion, and governments will be forced to take control of their internal oil production and trade to ensure internal stability or international stability if they're feeling generous. Nations have a vested interest in making sure they don't collapse and will bail out or subsidize oil for as long as possible, with luck people will see the writing on the wall and start investing in more long-term sustainability. When the last cost-effective bit of fuel is drained, the smart business man would try to keep his fortune and invest elsewhere while the government takes a larger role in his oil production through strict rationing and/or conditional subsidization.

[Valrifell]

I'm not optimistic.

"Oh fuck, maybe it's time to change something, what will my children do ? Never mind, I'll be dead in 40 years anyway, DRILL BABY DRILL" seems to be our elite's motto since a good 50 years.

As usual, anticipation is key. If we wait for oil to become very expensive to start thinking about swithcing to a massive use of renewable energies and alternative means of transports, it'll be a goddamn mess.
Can you even imagine begin to adapt the US to a post-oil economy with much less cars and more public transports ? That's 60 years of regional planning and urbanism you have to change.

I think "goddamn mess" might be pretty likely.

Shit.

We've already kind of started that transition though, the US just needs to keep up incentives to change towards green resources and I'm sure the current adminis - oh. Shit.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Are you asking if we’ll run of oil? Because of course we will

[Firaxin]

Are you asking if we’ll run of oil? Because of course we will

I wonder whether it will be before we can supplement it or after.

[Internationalist Bastard]

Are you asking if we’ll run of oil? Because of course we will

I wonder whether it will be before we can supplement it or after.

Hopefully after
Probably before

[Valkalan]

Oil is not as much of a problem as people think. This is because of price fluctuations. As oil becomes scares, it's price will rise. In the short-run, this means lower consumption of oil, and will encourage the development of more energy-efficient technologies and outright alternatives to oil.

Also, it becomes more profitable to seek out new sources of oil, or to find ways to get more out of existing oil reserves. A prime example of this is the rise of fracking after high oil prices during the last decade.

The only thing that can mess this up are price ceilings and subsidies, which result in artificially low prices and high consumption in the face of low supplies.

[Sovaal]

Oil is a finite resource.

Finite resources can be depleted.

So yes, oil can be depleted.

[Unstoppable Empire of Doom]

Modern reactors are safe, reliable, clean, and cheap. What more could you want?

[Isilanka]

Oil is not as much of a problem as people think. This is because of price fluctuations. As oil becomes scares, it's price will rise. In the short-run, this means lower consumption of oil, and will encourage the development of more energy-efficient technologies and outright alternatives to oil.

Also, it becomes more profitable to seek out new sources of oil, or to find ways to get more out of existing oil reserves. A prime example of this is the rise of fracking after high oil prices during the last decade.

The only thing that can mess this up are price ceilings and subsidies, which result in artificially low prices and high consumption in the face of low supplies.

Yeah, let's pollute entire regions with fracking and ravage the poles to extract the last drops of oil ! Progress ! DRILL BABY DRILL !

[The Serbian Empire]

Saudi Arabia in my mind deserves to collapse since they support extreme versions of Islam.

They will only be a tourist trap for those on the Hajj someday.