Is Oil Depletion a real thing, and will it collapse nations?

[Yagon]

So, I was reading this: https://medium.com/@End_of_More/the-oil ... 6d3c723655

It presents the premise that we (humans on Earth) have between 10 - 30 years of oil left, and it will be increasingly expensive to recover per barrel.

This site says its more like 53 years: https://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-much ... h-cm897561

Naturally estimating is involved, new discovery/recovery technologies result in upwards adjustment of the estimate. Population and related economic growth increases usage over time.

I look at the technological advances we've made over the last fifty years (since around the time of my birth), and I like to read phys.org to feel better about things. Could we have methods within 50 years (or so) that are better for converting/storing/deploying energy? Could we re-engineer our houses and industrial processes to require less energy? I think so, but I don't know how much or how fast.

The additional issue seems to be the fighting over who will control what's left. It is further compounded by the environmental problems associated with such massive use of fossil fuels.

For the younger of you here on this board, some of this may become a critical issue during your life. Will we run out of oil before we develop and deploy other methods to power our civilization?

I believe we are adaptable as a species, and it may be hard with a lot of death and war, but I think we will survive and develop other technologies. Some of us will survive it, but maybe in smaller numbers. I think some nations in their current form will not survive, some will be diminished, others may somehow thrive. I don't know which. The world may look very different afterwards, but maybe the future is always like that.

Will we run out of cost-effectively recoverable reserves of oil before we can shift to other means of powering our civilization? How will the process of that shift effect governments and nations?

[Estados Centroamericanos]

I think that oil depletion is a serious problem. However, we won't run out of energy if we pursue more renewable forms of gaining it, such as solar, wind, and even nuclear energy.

[Valrifell]

We will never run out of oil in the ground.

It'll be far too expensive to extract from the ground before to make it worth it before we drain it all. We have several decades by the strictest estimates so it'll take a special kind of lacking foresight to have depletion be a real problem.

[Yagon]

We will never run out of oil in the ground.

It'll be far too expensive to extract from the ground before to make it worth it before we drain it all. We have several decades by the strictest estimates so it'll take a special kind of lacking foresight to have depletion be a real problem.

That seems very reasonable. So, if we change from depletion in a general sense to "depletion of cost-effectively recoverable reserves", do you think getting to that point will happen before we are able to transition to other means of powering civilization?

Will this be complicated by geopolitics, perhaps leading to critically disruptive armed conflict over remaining cost-effectively recoverable oil?

How long would you estimate we have before it becomes too expensive to extract? In the interval until that time, will it grow steadily more expensive? (Have we entered that period of increasingly expensive recovery? I've read that new fracking technology allowed cheaper recovery and reduce the expense of reaching some kinds of fossil fuels, I would imagine further such technologies will develop over decades, but I don't know for sure).

[Vince Vaughn]

We will never run out of oil in the ground.

It'll be far too expensive to extract from the ground before to make it worth it before we drain it all. We have several decades by the strictest estimates so it'll take a special kind of lacking foresight to have depletion be a real problem.

That seems very reasonable. So, if we change from depletion in a general sense to "depletion of cost-effectively recoverable reserves", do you think getting to that point will happen before we are able to transition to other means of powering civilization?

Reaching this point would be a catalyst towards alternative sources of energy. We'd be fine.

[The Serbian Empire]

If it depletes out, you'll likely see new methods and the grade of viable oil decrease. Venezuela's economic collapse is directly linked to technology allowing for oil that wasn't viable.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

We will run out of oil, that isn't even a question.

It will collapse nations.

Invest in fusion boi.

[The Serbian Empire]

We will run out of oil, that isn't even a question.

It will collapse nations.

Invest in fusion boi.

Do we even have a viable fusion plant?

[Palmyrion]

From a materials engineer's perspective, non-fossil fuel energy sources would overtake fossil fuel based energy sources in the long run, and fossil fuels would be mostly relegated to production of synthetic materials.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

We will run out of oil, that isn't even a question.

It will collapse nations.

Invest in fusion boi.

Do we even have a viable fusion plant?

Kinda.

[Bombadil]

In a thousand years school children will be tested on.. "The violence and destruction of the early mechanised age". Future generations will wonder at the politics and slaughter of this age.

The day energy is less dependent on specific geographical locations the better.

[NS Dates]

It could collapse nations. Saudi Arabia would lose money, since they give oil to A LOT of countries.

[Vallermoore]

Saudi Arabia in my mind deserves to collapse since they support extreme versions of Islam.

[Yagon]

In a thousand years school children will be tested on.. "The violence and destruction of the early mechanised age". Future generations will wonder at the politics and slaughter of this age.

The day energy is less dependent on specific geographical locations the better.

I wonder if future video games will be set in the time...."Call of Duty 3018 Edition: People Blowing One Another Up"....

[Yagon]

From a materials engineer's perspective, non-fossil fuel energy sources would overtake fossil fuel based energy sources in the long run, and fossil fuels would be mostly relegated to production of synthetic materials.

Will new recycling methods be possible that might allow the recovery and retasking of plastics? Enormous devices trawling the ocean picking up bits of plastic and somehow breaking them down with a new process and reassembling them into something useful?

That'd be cool...

[Yagon]

We will run out of oil, that isn't even a question.

It will collapse nations.

Invest in fusion boi.

I am very poor and have little to invest.

Another poster pointed out that Venezuela's collapse was related to oil, and someone else suggested Saudi Arabia.

Will the Middle East just be hosed? (I mean moreso....)? I wonder what will happen with Russia...

[Valentine Z]

It will collapse certain nations, and while it can get pretty chaotic if we are not prepared, it will make for interesting pointers in the history books.

And come on, Humanity. We need to move to solarpunk, on the double.

[Terra Novae Libero]

The problem with oil depletion isn't energy. Finding other sources would be difficult, but not impossible.

The real problem would lie with replacing all the chemicals derived from oil. Plastics, etc. It'd be a nightmare and could easily lead to a protracted global recession.

[Yagon]

The problem with oil depletion isn't energy. Finding other sources would be difficult, but not impossible.

The real problem would lie with replacing all the chemicals derived from oil. Plastics, etc. It'd be a nightmare and could easily lead to a protracted global recession.

When I was a boy in the 1970's, plastics were the miracle shit, you could make anything out of them strong (sort of) and cheap.

As they become more expensive, materials engineers will discover/derive new materials? I read somewhere some scientists found a way to make wood as strong as steel (although I don't know how expensive or scalable that would be, and likely not as suitable for all the things that plastic can do).

[Terra Novae Libero]

The problem with oil depletion isn't energy. Finding other sources would be difficult, but not impossible.

The real problem would lie with replacing all the chemicals derived from oil. Plastics, etc. It'd be a nightmare and could easily lead to a protracted global recession.

When I was a boy in the 1970's, plastics were the miracle shit, you could make anything out of them strong (sort of) and cheap.

As they become more expensive, materials engineers will discover/derive new materials? I read somewhere some scientists found a way to make wood as strong as steel (although I don't know how expensive or scalable that would be, and likely not as suitable for all the things that plastic can do).

I certainly hope so. We'll have to adapt.

[Wahlid]

The problem with oil depletion isn't energy. Finding other sources would be difficult, but not impossible.

The real problem would lie with replacing all the chemicals derived from oil. Plastics, etc. It'd be a nightmare and could easily lead to a protracted global recession.

When I was a boy in the 1970's, plastics were the miracle shit, you could make anything out of them strong (sort of) and cheap.

As they become more expensive, materials engineers will discover/derive new materials? I read somewhere some scientists found a way to make wood as strong as steel (although I don't know how expensive or scalable that would be, and likely not as suitable for all the things that plastic can do).

Scientists have managed to make real leather without killing cows and bioplastic from algae so there's definitely hope.

[The South Falls]

We'll run out of oil, but nations should've changed economy bases by then.

[Yagon]

Scientists have managed to make real leather without killing cows and bioplastic from algae so there's definitely hope.

So, all we have to do is not suppress or ignore the scientists work for political reasons or regress into a violent theocratic set of resource-warring nations and we're good.

We're good.

....




We're good.

Right?

[Palmyrion]

From a materials engineer's perspective, non-fossil fuel energy sources would overtake fossil fuel based energy sources in the long run, and fossil fuels would be mostly relegated to production of synthetic materials.

Will new recycling methods be possible that might allow the recovery and retasking of plastics? Enormous devices trawling the ocean picking up bits of plastic and somehow breaking them down with a new process and reassembling them into something useful?

That'd be cool...

That would drive down the demand for crude oil as a source of raw materials for synthetic materials.

The problem with oil depletion isn't energy. Finding other sources would be difficult, but not impossible.

The real problem would lie with replacing all the chemicals derived from oil. Plastics, etc. It'd be a nightmare and could easily lead to a protracted global recession.

When I was a boy in the 1970's, plastics were the miracle shit, you could make anything out of them strong (sort of) and cheap.

As they become more expensive, materials engineers will discover/derive new materials? I read somewhere some scientists found a way to make wood as strong as steel (although I don't know how expensive or scalable that would be, and likely not as suitable for all the things that plastic can do).

You mean cross-laminated timber? Yeah, we'd cut down forests faster than they'd grow, but hopefully the industry finds a way to circumvent or amend this.

[Yagon]

You mean cross-laminated timber? Yeah, we'd cut down forests faster than they'd grow, but hopefully the industry finds a way to circumvent or amend this.

I'm not sure what it's called, it's this: https://www.sciencealert.com/new-super- ... than-steel

The new process used here has two steps. First, natural wood is boiled in a mix of sodium hydroxide and sodium sulphite, which is actually similar to the process made to create wood pulp for paper.
Next, the wood goes through a compression phase to collapse the walls between individual cells. Heat is added to encourage new chemical bonds while the wood continues to be compressed.
Those processes are able to strip out certain polymers to allow the new wood to reform while also keeping other polymers essential to the wood's strength.
The strengthening ultimately comes from large numbers of hydrogen atoms bonding to nanofibres of cellulose, already naturally in the structure of the wood.

Supposedly as strong as steel, but six times lighter. It takes 10 times more energy to fracture than natural wood. It can even be bent and moulded at the beginning of the process (according to the article).

But you make a good point, we still would have to grow the wood.