UK Politics Thread VIII—Can't Let EU Go

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

Remember, preventative measures are bad because reasons.

So when the German Investors Association says that it is highly likely European fund managers will move to the UK in the near future to escape EU bureaucracy, is that a preventative measure?

When Amazon invests in a new European HQ in London in 2020, is that a preventative measure?

When Citibank announces the largest investment banking HQ investment in the European continent since 1995 on 18th February 2019 saying it will be in London and ready by 2022 ... is that a preventative measure?

I'm losing track of when Brexit is at fault and when things are happening Despite Brexit. Can I have a guideline somewhere? Is it written down? I want to abide by the rules.

So... Everything is either despite or because of Brexit? Those things can exist next to one another. When a company says they are leaving because of Brexit, they are leaving because of Brexit. Some decisions are made because of Brexit, some despite it. Those are not mutually exclusive.

That wasn't your argument. That's a new one. You rightly conceded your initial point was rubbish.

Brexit hasn't happened, but it is not exactly a surprise now, is it? When someone locks their door in the eveng, do you berate them because nobody is trying to get in yet?

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

We know that Brexit will happen on the 29th, and that the UK is likely to crash out of the EU and land in WTO rules with all trading partners. That is no surprise. And companies will take preventative measures.

Why are companies stockpiling groceries? Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

[Thermodolia]

That wasn't your argument. That's a new one. You rightly conceded your initial point was rubbish.

Brexit hasn't happened, but it is not exactly a surprise now, is it? When someone locks their door in the eveng, do you berate them because nobody is trying to get in yet?

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Yet you claim that companies building shit in the UK as evidence that Brexit isn’t bad.

Which one is it? Brexit hasn’t happened yet and therefore nobody has left due to it or Brexit has happened early and it’s the best thing ever?

[Thermodolia]

So when the German Investors Association says that it is highly likely European fund managers will move to the UK in the near future to escape EU bureaucracy, is that a preventative measure?

When Amazon invests in a new European HQ in London in 2020, is that a preventative measure?

When Citibank announces the largest investment banking HQ investment in the European continent since 1995 on 18th February 2019 saying it will be in London and ready by 2022 ... is that a preventative measure?

I'm losing track of when Brexit is at fault and when things are happening Despite Brexit. Can I have a guideline somewhere? Is it written down? I want to abide by the rules.

So... Everything is either despite or because of Brexit? Those things can exist next to one another. When a company says they are leaving because of Brexit, they are leaving because of Brexit. Some decisions are made because of Brexit, some despite it. Those are not mutually exclusive.

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

We know that Brexit will happen on the 29th, and that the UK is likely to crash out of the EU and land in WTO rules with all trading partners. That is no surprise. And companies will take preventative measures.

Why are companies stockpiling groceries? Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

Don’t worry citizen no deal Brexit will be the best thing ever! It’s like the Great Depression, the blitz, and civil unrest all rolled into one! Isn’t it great?!

[The Huskar Social Union]

Some people need fucking hit with a book on how not to be a twat

Bunch of racist cunts

[Trumptonium1]

So when the German Investors Association says that it is highly likely European fund managers will move to the UK in the near future to escape EU bureaucracy, is that a preventative measure?

When Amazon invests in a new European HQ in London in 2020, is that a preventative measure?

When Citibank announces the largest investment banking HQ investment in the European continent since 1995 on 18th February 2019 saying it will be in London and ready by 2022 ... is that a preventative measure?

I'm losing track of when Brexit is at fault and when things are happening Despite Brexit. Can I have a guideline somewhere? Is it written down? I want to abide by the rules.

So... Everything is either despite or because of Brexit? Those things can exist next to one another. When a company says they are leaving because of Brexit, they are leaving because of Brexit. Some decisions are made because of Brexit, some despite it. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Haha yeah like Lehman Brothers closed because of the official line "adverse market conditions"

yawn

Nissan profits down 80% globally. German car industry in recession worse than 2008. China slowing to Eastern European levels of growth of 5-6%. Anti-diesel policies across Europe including domestically, the only type of car produced in the UK.

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

We know that Brexit will happen on the 29th, and that the UK is likely to crash out of the EU and land in WTO rules with all trading partners. That is no surprise. And companies will take preventative measures.

Why are companies stockpiling groceries? Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

I don't know why anyone is stockpiling groceries for the Grand 2019 Brexit Armageddon.

I'd have thought they have stockpiles left over from the 2012 Mayan Apocalypse.

[Trumptonium1]

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Yet you claim that companies building shit in the UK as evidence that Brexit isn’t bad.

Which one is it? Brexit hasn’t happened yet and therefore nobody has left due to it or Brexit has happened early and it’s the best thing ever?

I'm just abiding by Remainer rules. Every economic decision must be solely related to Brexit -- good is in spite, bad is because.

[Imperializt Russia]

That wasn't your argument. That's a new one. You rightly conceded your initial point was rubbish.

Brexit hasn't happened, but it is not exactly a surprise now, is it? When someone locks their door in the eveng, do you berate them because nobody is trying to get in yet?

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Because the sunk cost fallacy.

Honda literally does not know the financial impact of continuing to operate in the UK during no-deal, managed no-deal, Narnia Agreement terms, WTO terms or pillow soft Brexit.

Because no-one fucking knows, least of all you.

If it continues to operate, and on March 30 that factory becomes economically unviable, they have to start working their way out of it after it becomes non-viable. Which costs more money than just closing the thing now and not having to deal with it.

[Vassenor]

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Because the sunk cost fallacy.

Honda literally does not know the financial impact of continuing to operate in the UK during no-deal, managed no-deal, Narnia Agreement terms, WTO terms or pillow soft Brexit.

Because no-one fucking knows, least of all you.

If it continues to operate, and on March 30 that factory becomes economically unviable, they have to start working their way out of it after it becomes non-viable. Which costs more money than just closing the thing now and not having to deal with it.

And because they now have a deal in place that means they can maintain continuity of imports with Europe post Brexit and so don't need us any more to access the market.

[Trumptonium1]

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Because the sunk cost fallacy.

Honda literally does not know the financial impact of continuing to operate in the UK during no-deal, managed no-deal, Narnia Agreement terms, WTO terms or pillow soft Brexit.

Because no-one fucking knows, least of all you.

If it continues to operate, and on March 30 that factory becomes economically unviable, they have to start working their way out of it after it becomes non-viable. Which costs more money than just closing the thing now and not having to deal with it.

Honda knows the financial impact of continuing to operate in Turkey because they have zero tariffs to the EU. They're still closing their factory in 2021.

They're also closing their car parts factory in Belgium, an EU country.

Please confirm this is all due to Brexit, I want to know what armageddon the UK has just unleashed on the entire planet.

Please confirm that the Chairman of Honda Europe is wrong about his own company and his own decision when he said "this is not a Brexit-related issue", we need some full disclosure here into what kind of expert on economics, crystal balling and doublethink you are.

And we do know the financial impact of no deal. It's available on the WTO website, GB Schedule XIX, available for all.

[Trumptonium1]

Honda to end production of Civic in Turkey in 2021

FUCKING BREXIT

Japanese carmaker giant Honda has announced that it will cease the production of Civic sedan model vehicles at its Turkey plant while closing the Swindon factory in the U.K. as part of its plans to restructure its global manufacturing network.

Honda has a plant in the in the western province of Kocaeli that commenced the production of Honda’s Civic sedan model vehicles at the end of 1997.

According to the information on the company’s website, the Kocaeli plant’s annual production capacity is 50,000 units. Honda Türkiye employs some 1,100 people.

“The global restructure will involve Honda’s automobile operations in Turkey. Honda Turkiye A.Ş. currently produces 38,000 units per year. The company will cease manufacturing current Civic sedan model in 2021 and intends to continue its business operations. Honda Turkiye A.Ş. will continue to hold constructive dialogue with Turkish stakeholders during this period,” the Japanese carmaker said in a statement on Feb. 19.

The company also said it had informed employees of its proposal to close its Swindon plant in 2021.

The plant currently produces 150,000 cars per year and employs approximately 3,500 people.

“In light of the unprecedented changes that are affecting our industry, it is vital that we accelerate our electrification strategy and restructure our global operations accordingly. As a result, we have had to take this difficult decision to consult our workforce on how we might prepare our manufacturing network for the future,” Katsushi Inoue, chief officer for European Regional Operations, said.

“This has not been taken lightly and we deeply regret how unsettling today’s announcement will be for our people,” he added.

And they even have a free trade agreement! Fuck sake, Brexit is really starting to crash the world isn't it
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countr ... dex_en.htm

[Novus America]

It is a surprise, why would Honda be quitting because of Brexit when Brexit hasn't happened yet?!

Because the sunk cost fallacy.

Honda literally does not know the financial impact of continuing to operate in the UK during no-deal, managed no-deal, Narnia Agreement terms, WTO terms or pillow soft Brexit.

Because no-one fucking knows, least of all you.

If it continues to operate, and on March 30 that factory becomes economically unviable, they have to start working their way out of it after it becomes non-viable. Which costs more money than just closing the thing now and not having to deal with it.

But they are not closing it now.
The are going to close it in 2021.

Sure they do not no the cost of Brexit (if it actually happens).
But this decision does not seem based on Brexit.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 2a211d90d5

It is more the European car market.
Half the cars made at the Swindon plant are sold to the US, and it therefore makes sense to move production to the US, where Honda has a much bigger market.

Brexit (and the uncertainty surrounding it) does have affects, of course.
But not everything is Brexit.

At this point pretty much anything (even hard Brexit) is better than the status quo.
Hard Brexit, no Brexit, deal Brexit. Whatever.
Just do something!
So people actually know what is going on, so people can actually start looking at how to fix problems rather than running around shrieking Brexit at each other.
So something actually can get done.

[Ostroeuropa]

Just like it won't suit the "Brexit will be the greatest thing ever" agenda to actually ask them what they think.

But it's nice to see that apparently you don't care about British workers.

I don't care about FBPE loons. There's a difference.

The Tories crash the economy more frequently than Labour does. This should be evident to you given the 1997 -> 2012 Labour government, VS the 2015-2019 Tory government.
That pattern repeats.

On average the Tories crash the economy once every 7 years, and Labour does it once every 13 years.

Labour also has a better record paying off the debt than the Tories do.

So what exactly are you talking about here?

Labour was in power in 2012 and the Tories crashed the economy this parliamentary session?

Which alternative reality is this

Sorry, I meant 2010. And yes, the Tories have presided over lackluster economic growth and now a retraction of the economy.

[Imperializt Russia]

Because the sunk cost fallacy.

Honda literally does not know the financial impact of continuing to operate in the UK during no-deal, managed no-deal, Narnia Agreement terms, WTO terms or pillow soft Brexit.

Because no-one fucking knows, least of all you.

If it continues to operate, and on March 30 that factory becomes economically unviable, they have to start working their way out of it after it becomes non-viable. Which costs more money than just closing the thing now and not having to deal with it.

Honda knows the financial impact of continuing to operate in Turkey because they have zero tariffs to the EU. They're still closing their factory in 2021.

They're also closing their car parts factory in Belgium, an EU country.

Please confirm this is all due to Brexit, I want to know what armageddon the UK has just unleashed on the entire planet.

Please confirm that the Chairman of Honda Europe is wrong about his own company and his own decision when he said "this is not a Brexit-related issue", we need some full disclosure here into what kind of expert on economics, crystal balling and doublethink you are.

And we do know the financial impact of no deal. It's available on the WTO website, GB Schedule XIX, available for all.

so angry

[The Blaatschapen]

This doesn't even begin to approach an actual argument. It is, however, straight up flaming. If you can't think of something better to post as a response in a debate, don't bother.

Imperializt Russia *** Warned for Flaming ***

There is no rational response to Trumptonium's statement and I shall not let it go unchallenged.

Thus, I gave the one response appropriate.

Some others of us just laughed. Ridicule was also an option

[Imperializt Russia]

Also, only just realised, but this is Thread VIII and no-one made a King Henry joke?

Disappointing.

[Vassenor]

Honda knows the financial impact of continuing to operate in Turkey because they have zero tariffs to the EU. They're still closing their factory in 2021.

They're also closing their car parts factory in Belgium, an EU country.

Please confirm this is all due to Brexit, I want to know what armageddon the UK has just unleashed on the entire planet.

Please confirm that the Chairman of Honda Europe is wrong about his own company and his own decision when he said "this is not a Brexit-related issue", we need some full disclosure here into what kind of expert on economics, crystal balling and doublethink you are.

And we do know the financial impact of no deal. It's available on the WTO website, GB Schedule XIX, available for all.

so angry

Well yeah. That's what happens when your fantasy world about how brilliant Brexit will be is challenged.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Also, only just realised, but this is Thread VIII and no-one made a King Henry joke?

Disappointing.

*banging noises in the distance*

Sorry what?

[Great Confederacy of Commonwealth States]

So... Everything is either despite or because of Brexit? Those things can exist next to one another. When a company says they are leaving because of Brexit, they are leaving because of Brexit. Some decisions are made because of Brexit, some despite it. Those are not mutually exclusive.

Haha yeah like Lehman Brothers closed because of the official line "adverse market conditions"

yawn

Nissan profits down 80% globally. German car industry in recession worse than 2008. China slowing to Eastern European levels of growth of 5-6%. Anti-diesel policies across Europe including domestically, the only type of car produced in the UK.

We know that Brexit will happen on the 29th, and that the UK is likely to crash out of the EU and land in WTO rules with all trading partners. That is no surprise. And companies will take preventative measures.

Why are companies stockpiling groceries? Brexit hasn’t happened yet.

I don't know why anyone is stockpiling groceries for the Grand 2019 Brexit Armageddon.

I'd have thought they have stockpiles left over from the 2012 Mayan Apocalypse.

When your profits are down, you don’t exactly close profitable ventures, do you? The reason the factory is closing is because Nissan executives expect it will not give them profit in the future. The asset has not been liquidated; it has been closed.

The difference between 2012 and Brexit is that 2012 didn’t cause days long traffic delays for goods intering the country, which Brexit will according to most analysis. Unless the UK is not protecting its border after Brexit, which was the whole reason to start Brexit in the first place, perishables are going to have a hard time entering the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... eal-brexit

You might not agree with them doing it, but they are.

[Trumptonium1]

Haha yeah like Lehman Brothers closed because of the official line "adverse market conditions"

yawn

Nissan profits down 80% globally. German car industry in recession worse than 2008. China slowing to Eastern European levels of growth of 5-6%. Anti-diesel policies across Europe including domestically, the only type of car produced in the UK.




I don't know why anyone is stockpiling groceries for the Grand 2019 Brexit Armageddon.

I'd have thought they have stockpiles left over from the 2012 Mayan Apocalypse.

When your profits are down, you don’t exactly close profitable ventures, do you? The reason the factory is closing is because Nissan executives expect it will not give them profit in the future. The asset has not been liquidated; it has been closed.

The difference between 2012 and Brexit is that 2012 didn’t cause days long traffic delays for goods intering the country, which Brexit will according to most analysis. Unless the UK is not protecting its border after Brexit, which was the whole reason to start Brexit in the first place, perishables are going to have a hard time entering the country.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... eal-brexit

You might not agree with them doing it, but they are.

According to "most analysis", we were already meant to be in recession and have a million unemployed.

According to most analysis, the City was meant to disappear by now. So far the worst that happened is that a Japanese rice export insurance bank fucked off to Amsterdam with its 20 staff. Travesty. In return we had a $1.2 billion pound investment from Citibank on a new HQ by 2022, the largest IB investment in Europe since 1995.

Tell me why are only some companies taking ""preventative measures""? We've known about Brexit since June 2016. Full-time employment (35h+ a week) is at a record high (as a proportion of population, not population growth), surely companies wouldn't be employing ever more people if they needed to make preventative measures.

So when they say Honda is leaving because of Brexit and that we're doomed, the companies that stay here and continue to employ 'despite Brexit' don't count, because it hasn't happened? Laughable. That's bizarre, because if they saw the Leave vote in 2016 and figured what would happen, why do they continue to employ?

Oh, we've not yet left. Silly me!

An utterly weak argument.

And yes you absolutely do close profitable ventures if you need to do corporate restructuring. Basic business 101.

[Trumptonium1]

Honda knows the financial impact of continuing to operate in Turkey because they have zero tariffs to the EU. They're still closing their factory in 2021.

They're also closing their car parts factory in Belgium, an EU country.

Please confirm this is all due to Brexit, I want to know what armageddon the UK has just unleashed on the entire planet.

Please confirm that the Chairman of Honda Europe is wrong about his own company and his own decision when he said "this is not a Brexit-related issue", we need some full disclosure here into what kind of expert on economics, crystal balling and doublethink you are.

And we do know the financial impact of no deal. It's available on the WTO website, GB Schedule XIX, available for all.

so angry

The Nazis were far-left and I'm sure you've heard Soubry being called a Nazi on TV, that's because she is one. Doesn't like democracy.

Fuck off.

Can't be angry when I'm typing this with a Covington Grin.

[Hirota]

Also, only just realised, but this is Thread VIII and no-one made a King Henry joke?

Disappointing.

I was busy banging my sixth wife.

Don't worry about the other five.

Well yeah. That's what happens when your fantasy world about how brilliant Brexit will be is challenged.

You know what? Brexit might be brilliant in the long term. It probably won't. It might be disastrous, but it still probably won't be in the long term (short term...is a different matter. I don't think anyone other than your average free-market fanatic or Brexiteer funamentalist thought this would be painless).

We would have had a better chance of it being brilliant as opposed to being disastrous if we just committed and planned rather than have a government that dragged its heels into trying to implement something that may or may not resemble Brexit in some form and then flip flop our way into a no-deal brexit because we apparently can't please everyone.

It's the uncertainty which is going to cost us right now, probably much more than a decisive Brexit with a roadmap would ever have cost us.

[Trumptonium1]

Funny that all the liberals are saying that ISIS twat who had her citizenship revoked was "vulnerable" and "groomed" because of her young age.

This is the same political faction that want to lower the voting age so that she can vote.

Christ fuck. Is it precisely to exploit that vulnerability and groom the young? No sense of irony.

[The Huskar Social Union]

Fuck her she can rot over there.

If possible nab her child so it might be raised as a normal fucking human but screw her.

[Ostroeuropa]

If she can't demonstrate some form of coercive control and attempts on her part to do something about her situation I find it strains credulity for her to ask to come home. Especially when you consider her story changed when it looked like she was going to be denied from;

"Eh, shit sucks now, we lost, i want to come home."

to

"Wahhh I was forced!"

This is not;

"I was forced and the moment they left me alone, I ran.". She was an active participant and cannot appear to demonstrate anything to the contrary.

[The Archregimancy]

For clarity, Shamima Begum hasn't definitively and finally had her citizenship revoked yet.

Her UK-based family have stated that the Home Office has signalled in a letter to the family that the Home Secretary will invoke the right to revoke her citizenship under the terms of the 1981 nationality act, and this has since been confirmed by anonymous Whitehall sources; but by its own admission the Home Office can only revoke her citizenship if doing so wouldn't render her stateless.

The question then arises as to whether she has dual citizenship. Her family claim she doesn't. She's of Bangladeshi descent, but the family claim that she's never held Bangladeshi citizenship. Confirmation on this point will presumably have to come from Dhaka. Stating that she has dual UK-ISIS citizenship would require the UK government to recognise the legitimacy of ISIS as a state body, which presents obvious issues.

She also has the right to appeal, as specifically outlined in the letter to the family. Revocation will not be final until she either exhausts her appeal or signals her intent not to appeal.

It's also worth noting that even if the government can't strip of her of her UK citizenship because she lacks dual nationality, the government is under no obligation to help bring her home. Even if she was wholly blameless (which by her own admission she isn't) consular assistance would only extend to supplying her with a passport - that she would have to pay for.

Summed up, if it turns out she has never held dual citizenship, then the government has opened itself to potential embarrassment given that they can't then stop her from coming back to the UK if someone else stumps up the cash (though they can then incarcerate her and put her on trial). Under normal circumstances, you'd assume that the government had done due diligence on this point, but given that this is the government that's given us the endless hilarity of Chris Grayling, you never know.

Note that I'm not offering a moral judgement on her case. I'm only clarifying some of the legal issues arising (which have come up a lot at work recently).