How unpopular is Trump?

[Petrasylvania]

We are in an era of negative politics.

So being less unliked is the best we can hope for

It seems to me that Trump is less unliked than Hillary Clinton.

When we ask about popularity, we should use an objective source such as Pew, avoid the mainstream media, and use head to head comparisons.

It would be fin to see an objective forced-choice comparison between pairs of major figures. I think Bernie would have beaten Hillary if that had been done. Then we can have the winners of that faceoff challenge each other, like the March Madness brackets. Finally we could know who is relatively more popular than whom.

So less liked than Donnie that she won the popular vote?

[Trumptonium1]

We are in an era of negative politics.

So being less unliked is the best we can hope for

It seems to me that Trump is less unliked than Hillary Clinton.

When we ask about popularity, we should use an objective source such as Pew, avoid the mainstream media, and use head to head comparisons.

It would be fin to see an objective forced-choice comparison between pairs of major figures. I think Bernie would have beaten Hillary if that had been done. Then we can have the winners of that faceoff challenge each other, like the March Madness brackets. Finally we could know who is relatively more popular than whom.

So less liked than Donnie that she won the popular vote?

Didn't know the dead can vote

[Petrasylvania]

So less liked than Donnie that she won the popular vote?

Didn't know the dead can vote

You forgot the millions of illegals. :^]

[Great Minarchistan]

IIRC some polls showed Trudeau's approval at 33%. Don't have a source for that but given the talks of his sinking popularity, I wouldn't doubt that.

[Katganistan]

I think he's a lot more popular than a lot of the polling says. I really don't put a lot of faith in polls. I've seen them be dramatically wrong for local elections in my area.

Based on?

Alternate facts.

[Big Jim P]

Some people like him here, some don't. It varies per state, but support for Trump nationwide is about 50% and growing at an average pace. And seeing how noticeable parts of his opposition are going absolutely crazy and not doing anything to brighten their image, it's probably going to keep growing for a while.

Especially if the democrats don't come up with something better than "we hate Trump" to run with.

[Big Jim P]

Generally, people I know tend to be supportive of him even if he's seen as a bit of a buffoon at times. I think they are also quite happy with the recent tax cuts and reforms to the tax code, which have helped small and mid-size businesses immensely.

The economy doing great also plays a big part in this sentiment, it is doing far better than any time in recent years and it is translating into some serious wage gains in my field. I think a lot of people feel as if there's a sense that this county is on the right track again after 16 lousy years under Bush and Obama. I was born in 1988 so I can't exactly speak about the Reagan years, but I think a lot of this sentiment is similar to the sense of relief and optimism people felt during the 1980's after the Vietnam years and stagflation in the 1970's. Plus, I think people like seeing someone who is unabashedly American and unwilling to back down or apologize and puts this country first.

I personally tend to be cautiously optimistic, but I am also greatly concerned about the rising national debt and the need to bring that under control. Cutting taxes like they did was a nice bump in my take-home pay, but we need to get our debt under control or it will lead to problems.

I lived through the Reagan years and have noted the similarities between him and Trump. Both inherited a mess caused by a series of mediocre predecessors culminating in a uniquely bad one. Both did/are doing well in fixing said messes. Both were very unpopular amongst the opposition (Trump far more so than Reagan). Hell, Trump even has his Space Force where Reagan had SDI.

[Infected Mushroom]

He’s popular with me

[Big Jim P]

He’s popular with me

I generally agree with what he's doing, although we have better things to spend money on than the space force.

[Kubra]

well a french president with low approval ratings that's low hanging fruit innit
I'm quite sure the french vote for who they like least

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

So less liked than Donnie that she won the popular vote?

Didn't know the dead can vote

Are you really sticking to the "Hillary won pop vote beacuse dead people/illegals/other unproven thing!!!111!"

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

IIRC some polls showed Trudeau's approval at 33%. Don't have a source for that but given the talks of his sinking popularity, I wouldn't doubt that.

Not the one global posted and

Interesting that you compare Trump with Obama with specifically mentioning this point in time and make it sound like it's always been that way.

Cuz thats alot of bullshit. Obama had 46% today and Trump sits at 42%.

Interesting even more is the fact that you conveniently ignore the world's opinion on the legendary slow wall builder.

And then there's this lovely 36%, that beats Globals rating of the federal Liberal party.

[Conserative Morality]

30% of the country would support him if he shot someone in Times Square.

10% have the delusion that he can 'get better' and latch onto every incident in which he only mildly embarrasses himself as proof

5% sometimes think that he's a good policy puppet

[Mystic Warriors]

30% of the country would support him if he shot someone in Times Square.

10% have the delusion that he can 'get better' and latch onto every incident in which he only mildly embarrasses himself as proof

5% sometimes think that he's a good policy puppet

Bout right. Mostly down political lines. Conservatives have to support him, if he is seen as a failure it hurts them. Party politics. He wont "win" again anyway.

[Big Jim P]

30% of the country would support him if he shot someone in Times Square.

10% have the delusion that he can 'get better' and latch onto every incident in which he only mildly embarrasses himself as proof

5% sometimes think that he's a good policy puppet

Bout right. Mostly down political lines. Conservatives have to support him, if he is seen as a failure it hurts them. Party politics. He wont "win" again anyway.

With a solid economy and other successes behind him, and an opposition with no other platform than "hate Trump, raise taxes", I think a landslide victory is likely. People like having jobs, more money in their pockets and a secure nation. Imagine that.

[Deus Mercenary Leadership]

He’s pretty unpopular, then again he has lots of supporters. I assume 49/51 unpopular:popular ratio. I haven’t been paying attention on him lately.

[Frostnia]

Bout right. Mostly down political lines. Conservatives have to support him, if he is seen as a failure it hurts them. Party politics. He wont "win" again anyway.

With a solid economy and other successes behind him, and an opposition with no other platform than "hate Trump, raise taxes", I think a landslide victory is likely. People like having jobs, more money in their pockets and a secure nation. Imagine that.

The Democrats are busy whipping up their base, and I think that you underestimate how many people think he's a bad president. Besides, the economy is a fickle thing, and Trump's trade war has the potential to be really dangerous (even if it doesn't hurt the economy too badly, people will still view it as dangerous and irresponsible). I think he can win, certainly, but definitely not in a landslide.

[United Christian]

The issue is how partisan polling is. Republicans go with the Republican and Democrat with the Democrat. It's very very very very rare you get republican polling that goes against their president. So really it's a poll on how many Republicans there are since they are the party that gets overestimated in polls. What Trump's polling shows us is something more and more Republicans are fearing, their party is vaporizing right in front of our eyes. Their voting demography is dying out.

Remember Republican, a party of for lack of a better term old and white, always ALWAYS overestimate in the polls. Why? Democrats typically don't do surveys, why is another discussion. His approval rating is quite low despite the economy doing well, jobs becoming more abundant, and NK Peace. This is simply because Trump SUCKS at the social issues. Immigration and by extension race, foreign relations, human rights, just general human decency. (from a progressive POV btw)

[Forsher]

I'm very skeptical of approval statistics. Not only because it's so easy to get a desired result but because it's so dependent on the context in which the poll is run. I expect you could ask the same person their opinion of Trump three times a month and for most people you'd get a different response every time.

New day, new data, new decision. That's how it should work.

Take 9/11. George Bush became wildly popular after his initial response, but as time went on the American public came to better understand what Bush meant, what invading places meant and what 9/11 meant. It would be absurd to argue that Bush should have maintained his popularity throughout his turn at the top, and it is just as absurd to argue that popularity should remain constant through a month.

[Vassenor]

The issue is how partisan polling is. Republicans go with the Republican and Democrat with the Democrat. It's very very very very rare you get republican polling that goes against their president. So really it's a poll on how many Republicans there are since they are the party that gets overestimated in polls. What Trump's polling shows us is something more and more Republicans are fearing, their party is vaporizing right in front of our eyes. Their voting demography is dying out.

Remember Republican, a party of for lack of a better term old and white, always ALWAYS overestimate in the polls. Why? Democrats typically don't do surveys, why is another discussion. His approval rating is quite low despite the economy doing well, jobs becoming more abundant, and NK Peace. This is simply because Trump SUCKS at the social issues. Immigration and by extension race, foreign relations, human rights, just general human decency. (from a progressive POV btw)

I'd hardly call massive concessions for no real gain "peace" or something to celebrate.

[The Frozen Forest]

If Trump were truly an unpopular president he wouldn't have gotten elected. Look at it however you want, the hard truth is that he was popular enough to win the Presidency for the most powerful nation on the planet. Polling is not hugely effective, if it weren't obvious after the 2016 election. Recall if you will the vast number of polls done and how in a majority of cases it was expected that Hillary Clinton would end up victorious, even hugely victorious in some cases. After the election it was a surprise victory that Trump Won, but why was it so much of a shock? The polls were wrong about him winning, they were inaccurate.

Take a look at RealClearPolitics, where it lists a great number of polls conducted to determine who would win the election. Without actually having to count up the numbers for both sides, one can easily surmise that most of the polls predicted a Clinton victory. With that in mind, how accurate can the poles be? Then you realize that the popular vote between Hillary and Donald Trump was only a mere 2.1 points difference, only three million people in Hillary's favor. The notion that the GOP is weakened or dying is a joke.

[Chernoslavia]

He's obviously worshipped as a god on this forum.

[Vassenor]

If Trump were truly an unpopular president he wouldn't have gotten elected. Look at it however you want, the hard truth is that he was popular enough to win the Presidency for the most powerful nation on the planet. Polling is not hugely effective, if it weren't obvious after the 2016 election. Recall if you will the vast number of polls done and how in a majority of cases it was expected that Hillary Clinton would end up victorious, even hugely victorious in some cases. After the election it was a surprise victory that Trump Won, but why was it so much of a shock? The polls were wrong about him winning, they were inaccurate.

Take a look at RealClearPolitics, where it lists a great number of polls conducted to determine who would win the election. Without actually having to count up the numbers for both sides, one can easily surmise that most of the poles predicted a Clinton victory. With that in mind, how accurate can the poles be? Then you realize that the popular vote between Hillary and Donald Trump was only a mere 2.1 points difference, only three million people in Hillary's favor. The notion that the GOP is weakened or dying is a joke.

So if he was so popular, why did the vote swing her way at all? Why would the GOP admit that it was only able to take one of the key states through voter suppression, not through Trump's popularity?

[Forsher]

If Trump were truly an unpopular president he wouldn't have gotten elected.

Completely wrong.

Firstly, the correspondence between popularity and electoral outcomes in the US is distorted enormously by an antique electoral system (from top to bottom).

Secondly, even in a proper system, an unpopular candidate can defeat a more unpopular candidate.

Thirdly, Trump was not, then, an unpopular president.

Look at it however you want, the hard truth is that he was popular enough to win the Presidency for the most powerful nation on the planet.

A point which relies entirely on the illogical reasoning used above because we can't just say "You got their vote, therefore you're popular with them". He was electable enough, in the right places, to win. But that's not the same.

Polling is not hugely effective, if it weren't obvious after the 2016 election. Recall if you will the vast number of polls done and how in a majority of cases it was expected that Hillary Clinton would end up victorious, even hugely victorious in some cases. After the election it was a surprise victory that Trump Won, but why was it so much of a shock? The polls were wrong about him winning, they were inaccurate.

If I told you it was going to rain today with a 30% chance and it didn't would you hate me forever and never listen to me again? No? Then why are you going on about how the polls failed?

If you were shocked that Trump won, that was on you... not the polls. If you were slightly surprised Trump won? Well, congratulations, your expectations were in line with the evidence.

Take a look at RealClearPolitics, where it lists a great number of polls conducted to determine who would win the election. Without actually having to count up the numbers for both sides, one can easily surmise that most of the poles predicted a Clinton victory. With that in mind, how accurate can the poles be? Then you realize that the popular vote between Hillary and Donald Trump was only a mere 2.1 points difference, only three million people in Hillary's favor. The notion that the GOP is weakened or dying is a joke.

Irrelevant to the thread's topic.

[Neu Leonstein]

The polls were wrong about him winning, they were inaccurate.

They weren't actually wrong though. The popular vote turned out pretty much as the polling had suggested. What got him elected was outperformance in particular parts of the electoral map, and the polls for these smaller and smaller subdivisions naturally turn out less accurate. That's why, if people spent more time learning what a confidence interval was, they would have been more prepared. People who do, like 538 and some select others, were warning that it was closer than the aggregate popular vote polling might have suggested.

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Anyway, someone asked about Merkel, and how it was supposedly impossible to find approval ratings for her. As at June, she's at 50 approve, 49 disapprove. That makes her the most approved-of German politician in the panel, 7 approval points ahead of Seehofer, 24 points ahead of Spahn and 38 points ahead of Gauland.

In terms of where that is relative to the past, there are time series data too. 50 is towards the low end of her range (mid to low 40s is the lowest she's gotten, in autumn 2010), though it looks as though there's a bit of a cyclical pattern going on: she's been towards this lower end several times before, but then come back into the 60s or even 70s.

One thing that people really didn't like in this last election actually had nothing much to do with asylum seekers (as at January this year, majority of people thought that they can be integrated as long as issues are talked about and addressed openly). They just didn't like the coalition talks dragging out, and they don't have much confidence that this Grand Coalition government will actually be able to get much done.