Medicare trust fund to run out by 2026, Social Sec by 2034.

[Petrolheadia]

"wow dude just indebt yourself more xddd ignore japanese stagnation and balance sheet recessions duuude xd"

I keep hearing "japanese stagnation" yet it never seems to happen.

Lost Decade, losing out to the Asian Tigers in growth?

[The East Marches II]

I'd like to hear what Saiwania and Salangriado think, since they are completely opposed to the idea that birth rates are too low to sustain a functioning pension system long-term.

Turns out, if you use the fund decades in advance, it runs out of money. Also: this is a temporary effect. It'll fix itself after a few decades. Your continued refusal to listen when told what I mean by "long term" is nobody's problem other than your own. You can avoid the short term issues by raising taxes to fund it and raising the elligibility age.

It is a stretch to believe that you say you said something on a matter. I'm gonna need some proofadoodledoo

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Wired that theyhad a debt "problem", the media played it for a while, then it just fell off the face of the earth.

Even when a story gets old, it does not stop to exist.

And the global enforcement group for paying debts are who?

The borrowers, the IMF.

Except that if you walk outside Greece, everything is fine.

Last time the borrowers tried to enforce debt payments it started this. I don't think anyone would want to try that again.


The IMF? When have they done anything?

[Petrolheadia]

Turns out, if you use the fund decades in advance, it runs out of money. Also: this is a temporary effect. It'll fix itself after a few decades. Your continued refusal to listen when told what I mean by "long term" is nobody's problem other than your own. You can avoid the short term issues by raising taxes to fund it and raising the elligibility age.

It is a stretch to believe that you say you said something on a matter. I'm gonna need some proofadoodledoo

History often turns itself around.

However, this does not seem to be the case - according to predictions, the future employee/retiree ratio is going to be as fucked as the current one.

[Petrolheadia]

Even when a story gets old, it does not stop to exist.

The borrowers, the IMF.

Except that if you walk outside Greece, everything is fine.

Last time the borrowers tried to enforce debt payments it started this. I don't think anyone would want to try that again.


The IMF? When have they done anything?

They'll just stop giving cash.

That's what happened in my country, Poland, in the 80s.

[The East Marches II]

Even when a story gets old, it does not stop to exist.

The borrowers, the IMF.

Except that if you walk outside Greece, everything is fine.

Last time the borrowers tried to enforce debt payments it started this. I don't think anyone would want to try that again.


The IMF? When have they done anything?

What happened when the French refused to pay their war debts? Pro-tip: nothing good

What happened when homeowner's had too many bad loans? Pro-tip: nothing good

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Except that if you walk outside Greece, everything is fine.

Last time the borrowers tried to enforce debt payments it started this. I don't think anyone would want to try that again.


The IMF? When have they done anything?

They'll just stop giving cash.

That's what happened in my country, Poland, in the 80s.

And then they lost a trading partner and then they will need to kick in more money.

[Gallia-]

This is effectively what kept it solvent for decades.

The optimal life expectancy is somewhere around 65.

It's interesting to mention that back when it was created, you received benefits solely at the age of 67 or so iirc, they only loosened it later on.

I would say the best LE for keeping the SS/MC solvent indefinitely with a retirement/senior age of around 66-67 is throw a peg between 65-70. Anything over 70 and too many people are living too long. Anything under 65 and people will start complaining that they'll die before their benefits kick in. The actual problem is just the total fertility rate is sub-replacement, though, so the pool of taxpayers is constantly shrinking and the pool of aging dependents is constantly growing. An economy based on "parasite"/dependent industries like healthcare and olds care is not good for long-term survival.

I'm not really convinced that people over about 75, plus or minus 5 years, can contribute much of anything to the working force anyway, though. They're too physically enfeebled, too addle-brained (Alz and other neurodegenerative disorders), or just plain old to really do much. Once you hit 80 you're basically useless for wealth generation and become a true dependent, whether you really want to or not. Excluding medical problems such as broken limbs or chronic diseases, of course, that's about the age gate you'd be looking at.

If you manage to come close to closing the LE gap between males and females, you're looking at around 80-81 for both genders, but American LE is already 78 and change, although it might start dropping in the future.

The problem comes when it drops because of a lack of support of medical infrastructure rather than a somewhat deliberate policy of simply being...unhealthy. In the past the life expectancy was broadly kept in check by a combination of smoking and heart disease, which is fine, since if half a given birth cohort drops dead at anywhere between 65-70 you are basically golden and able to keep the non-smokers and non-drinkers of that cohort afloat on pensions for the rest of their lives on whatever the taxpayers or the retirees themselves contribute.

Its almost as if that's exactly how SS/MC was designed, but then LE increased without commensurate modifications or the SS/MC system. Or without regard for increasing lifespan's effect on that system. Ditto reduced birthrates.

Put more money into it then?

Money that the US does not have?

*Will not have. America could put all its money into these funds and fund them perpetually with a few arbitrary law changes, but eventually it collect so few taxes from the handful of people who actually work and generate money that it'll have to stop eventually.

Just fixing the system would require monumental changes in how American society works. In some ways, you'd be regressing the past 40 years of life expectancy growth in order to arrest the growth of life expectancy. In other ways, you'd be resisting the largest cohort of voting age folks: the middle aged workers (Gen X) and seniors/retirees (Boomers) in a very anti-democratic fashion. And in yet more ways, you'd need vastly progressive policies (creches for working moms, breaking the glass ceiling, paid leave for both parents, etc.) for companies and governments to follow.

Which is why I'm skeptical that anyone will do anything besides maybe raising the retirement age, which is a bit like a splint on a bone rather than a bandaid: better than nothing but you still have a broken bone.

The real fix would be to just have enough future workers being born but it's far too late for that now and I'm not sure America can manage it either.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Except that if you walk outside Greece, everything is fine.

Last time the borrowers tried to enforce debt payments it started this. I don't think anyone would want to try that again.


The IMF? When have they done anything?

What happened when the French refused to pay their war debts? Pro-tip: nothing good

What happened when homeowner's had too many bad loans? Pro-tip: nothing good

You missed my point, the last time anyone enforced any debt payment was 28th June 1919.

What happened when the french and English enforced the payments? Protip: nothing good

Countries are not individual human beings, the IMF are not repo men.

[Gallia-]

Like putting a bandaid on a broken bone.

The problem is much more fundamental: there aren't enough children being born nor enough taxpayers entering the workforce.

cut taxs on sex toys, invest in schools, get more jobs that everyone can get.

Who buys sex toys when you can just go on Gelbooru LoL.

>invest in schools

All evidence suggests that increasing education reduces birthrates. Or rather, increasing education requirements of employment does so. The industrialized, educated countries have lower birthrates, and dropping ones, than the poor and uneducated countries. The only notable outlier is Israel, where the non-Haredi birthrate is something like 2.37. A healthy and sustainable growth rate. But Israel settles land and much of that birthrate is probably coming from farmer settlers who are having like five or six kids to help them grow grapefruits or lemons or whatever.

Perhaps we should have an atomic war. Radical Posadism 2020.

Jobs that everyone can get are rapidly being outsourced to Bangladeshis, Mexicans, and Chinese. Or already have been. Or Silicon Valley is preaching the new coming of Robot Jesus replacing truckers, factory men, and construction trades, while schools push the idea that university is for everyone instead of the top scoring, elite 1/3rd to 1/6th of a population. Granted, deindustrialization is a real problem but it's arguably secondary to the demographic root cause. ATM America doesn't have enough people being born, so there's hardly any reason to consider making new jobs when we'll need to wait 16-20 years or whatever for them to come of working age.

[Petrolheadia]

They'll just stop giving cash.

That's what happened in my country, Poland, in the 80s.

And then they lost a trading partner and then they will need to kick in more money.

They didn't give us much until we fixed the economy in the 90s.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

cut taxs on sex toys, invest in schools, get more jobs that everyone can get.

>invest in schools

All evidence suggests that increasing education reduces birthrates.

Perhaps we should have an atomic war. Radical Posadism 2020.

That would solve the problem, the dissolving of the US going into a nuclear wasteland would fix the trust fund.

Man, Fallout 76 looks super realistic, you don't even need the video game to play it.

[Gallia-]

>invest in schools

All evidence suggests that increasing education reduces birthrates.

Perhaps we should have an atomic war. Radical Posadism 2020.

That would solve the problem, the dissolving of the US going into a nuclear wasteland would fix the trust fund.

The USA is probably immune to atomic war.

It would just regress to an agrarian, medieval society.

[Great Minarchistan]

"wow dude just indebt yourself more xddd ignore japanese stagnation and balance sheet recessions duuude xd"

And the global enforcement group for paying debts are who?

Bond vigilantes, anyone?

[Parskahye]

cut taxs on sex toys, invest in schools, get more jobs that everyone can get.

But for now, treat it like a car low on gas, filler up.

Except that this is a car with a leaky tank and no gas money.

There is no need for trade offs between government services and economic discipline. Otto Von Bismarck's Germany and modern Singapore both possessed excellent government services while having extremely low tax burdens by Western democratic standards.

The problem is that there is no strong authority who can ensure money is spent responsibly in Western democracies. American infrastructure projects are regularly about 3x more per mile than similar projects in Western Europe. To fix that, it isn't actually necessary to cut spending, just get rid of liberal democracy and replace it with a Lee Kuan Yew or Otto Von Bismark style autocrat who can bend the forces of the state to his will.

[Great Minarchistan]

"wow dude just indebt yourself more xddd ignore japanese stagnation and balance sheet recessions duuude xd"

I keep hearing "japanese stagnation" yet it never seems to happen.

Yea, ignore the 10-year growth rates hitting a multi-decade low...

[Gallia-]

just get rid of liberal democracy

Asian solutions for America? Nah.

Germany does liberal democracy fine. America should be taking notes from them.

LKY is a really good mayor though, I'll give him that. He ran a city a quarter the size of New York City from dirt farms to a moderately successful regional/sub-regional trading hub that sits on a major global shipping trade lane by making his city so shitty Malaysia wanted nothing to do with it. Smart move.

[Parskahye]

just get rid of liberal democracy

Asian solutions for America? Nah.

Germany does liberal democracy fine. America should be taking notes from them.

Modern Germany is an obscenely wasteful state compared to the Kaiserreich. Not much more in services, but considerably greater tax burdens.

[Gallia-]

Asian solutions for America? Nah.

Germany does liberal democracy fine. America should be taking notes from them.

Modern Germany is an obscenely wasteful state compared to the Kaiserreich. Not much more in services, but considerably greater tax burdens.

Sounds like the perfect American model.

You want monarchy then you can move to Moscow. Bunk with Snowden maybe?

[Parskahye]

Modern Germany is an obscenely wasteful state compared to the Kaiserreich. Not much more in services, but considerably greater tax burdens.

Sounds like the perfect American model.

You want monarchy then you can move to Moscow.

We could never realistically establish a monarchy in the United States.

On the other hand, could Donald Trump pull an Alberto Fujimori and create a more efficient administration that allows for total centralization of federal power in a single set of hands? Hmmm....

[Great Minarchistan]

Friendly reminder that George Reisman created an excellent idea to solve the Social Security problem. For those that are too lazy to read it, his proposal is to phase out the social security gradually, opening up space for a system of retirement by capitalization (IRAs), where workers would be responsible for their own retirement, rather than relying on the next generation. It's a win-win because such system tends to be self-sustainable, would also increase the share of the bottom on capital gains (allowing more social mobility) and increase the amount of disposable funds to the private sector for investments -- generating more employment and economic dynamism.

[Parskahye]

Friendly reminder that George Reisman created an excellent idea to solve the Social Security problem. For those that are too lazy to read it, his proposal is to phase out the social security gradually, opening up space for a system of retirement by capitalization (IRAs), where workers would be responsible for their own retirement, rather than relying on the next generation. It's a win-win because such system tends to be self-sustainable, would also increase the share of the bottom on capital gains (allowing more social mobility) and increase the amount of disposable funds to the private sector for investments -- generating more employment and economic dynamism.

People lack the sophistication necessary for such a thing. Given the option, they will consume now due to the average person having high time preference.

Something like Singapore's mandatory savings program is essential to force people to behave responsibly.

[Trumptonium1]

Like putting a bandaid on a broken bone.

The problem is much more fundamental: there aren't enough children being born nor enough taxpayers entering the workforce.

The problem is much more fundamental than that either: Social Security is a scheme that relies on future contributor wages, rather than capital gains -- as individual retirement savings do.

Individual retirement savings like property holdings ready to rent out to young people (future contributors), stocks on consumer corporations (future contributors) and treasury notes (future contributors) ???

[Great Minarchistan]

Friendly reminder that George Reisman created an excellent idea to solve the Social Security problem. For those that are too lazy to read it, his proposal is to phase out the social security gradually, opening up space for a system of retirement by capitalization (IRAs), where workers would be responsible for their own retirement, rather than relying on the next generation. It's a win-win because such system tends to be self-sustainable, would also increase the share of the bottom on capital gains (allowing more social mobility) and increase the amount of disposable funds to the private sector for investments -- generating more employment and economic dynamism.

People lack the sophistication necessary for such a thing. Given the option, they will consume now due to the average person having high time preference.

Something like Singapore's mandatory savings program is essential to force people to behave responsibly.

I mean, I've personally tinkered it in a way that the government would design one account for every worker where the employer would deposit a % of the worker's salary compulsorily, the employee deciding the investments -- ranging from anything like a 401k to his personal stock basket -- and on whether he will add up a contribution of his own to the employer's share or keep it at bare minimum. Allows for flexible management imo.

[Great Minarchistan]

The problem is much more fundamental than that either: Social Security is a scheme that relies on future contributor wages, rather than capital gains -- as individual retirement savings do.

Individual retirement savings like property holdings ready to rent out to young people (future contributors), stocks on consumer corporations (future contributors) and treasury notes (future contributors) ???

errr