NationStates

Bombadil wrote:

Neu Leonstein wrote:Assuming that I didn't mess up the code somewhere, there are a couple of things going on. The first is the ELO scores. I didn't use FIFA ones, both because I think they're bad and because the draw was based on them, so using them to analyse the draw would be a bit recursive. France has a 1984, which is pretty high, but a bit below the top-ranks like Brazil (2131) and Germany (2092). Plus, there are a few teams with similar scores to France in that follow-up pack.

The second issue is that France doesn't have an easy draw. Assuming that they top the group, their next opponent is the runner-up of group D, which is probably Croatia (1853). Then it'll be a choice of Spain, Portugal or Uruguay. And after that Brazil and Germany.

They can win all those matches, but the problem is that to win them all in a row often enough to show up as a significant proportion of total tournament victories they need a number of positive net shocks to happen in a row. It just so happened that when I ran my simulations, they didn't get those very often. Again, assuming that everything worked as intended. I worked through a couple of loops step by step to try and make sure the logic works as it's supposed to, but there are no guarantees. I'm still learning.

Anyway, for what it's worth, I agree with you. France is probably a better chance than the ELO scores give it credit for, and I think Brazil is a substantially smaller chance than the ELO scores imply. But I kept my own views out of this as much as possible.

Ah.. ok.. I don't think there's anything wrong with your math here - but I do think there's an issue with the ranking. As far as I can tell you've used ELO and then to some degree mapped to WC ranking?

The issue is that the South Americans seem very high on ELO and I suspect it's possibly the nature of their qualifying campaign. They seem to have the greatest variance in ELO rankings (Colombia jump 17, Peru drop 21) though for the life of me I can't see how Brazil dropped five and Argentina only one.. I guess friendlies.. Brazil drew with England recently..but it's y-o-y rankings.. still when you adjusted Argentina shoots up in the rankings on your system, which kind of belies their poor qualifying campaign and poor team sans Messi.

I wonder if you can download (not 'you' per se) first team FIFA player rankings on Playstation and rank accordingly.. and then enter the same random shock.

I say 'I wonder' because I don't think the effort of running it is particularly worth it and, to your point, the interest in this is post-tournament and seeing who out-performed or not. Like you say I'm not sure you can easily quantify randomness in football.

Tobiasia wrote:Hang on did you just say Argentina have a poor team bar messi?? Are you mad just think about Aguero, Higuain, Di Mária etc?

Tobiasia wrote:

Trumptonium1 wrote:Why are Chile and Poland not on the poll and why is England there?

Either way I think Argentina, Belgium or Poland. I'll be damned if Belgium doesn't at least reach the semis with their current squad. Argentina and Poland good all-rounders, latter being an underdog along with Switzerland. But I've seen Switzerland play Portugal and they were demolished.

Also Salah might pull Egypt out of their group. Uruguay is at a historic weak point atm.

England actually has a chance of winning also 14% of people have voted England (not me tho I think France) however Switzerland has zero chance of winning and personally I don’t think they’ll make it out of their group. Chile and Poland though I agree have a good chance but that’s why the ‘other’ vote is available

The Archregimancy wrote:

Tobiasia wrote:Hang on did you just say Argentina have a poor team bar messi?? Are you mad just think about Aguero, Higuain, Di Mária etc?

The last time Argentina played with a full squad bar Messi in Russia - in 2017 - they lost to Nigeria 4-2, giving up what appeared to be a comfortable 2-0 lead.

Either Nigeria are better than people think they are, or Argentina aren't that great without Messi.

Or both; I have my money on both.

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

The blAAtschApen wrote:

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

Griezmann.

I wanted to say Salah, but

The blAAtschApen wrote:

Tobiasia wrote:Who do we all think the stand out players of this World Cup will be?

I wanted to say Salah, but

The blAAtschApen wrote:I wanted to say Salah, but

Recovery time
You can stop wearing the sling after a few days, but it takes about 12 to 16 weeks to completely recover from a dislocated shoulder.

You'll usually be able to resume most activities within two weeks, but should avoid heavy lifting and sports involving shoulder movements for between six weeks and three months. Your care team will advise you.

You'll probably be off work for two to four weeks, or longer, if you have a physical job. Discuss this with your care team.

The Archregimancy wrote:

The blAAtschApen wrote:I wanted to say Salah, but

Early word is that it's a suspected dislocated shoulder, and not a fracture.

The NHS says:

Recovery time
You can stop wearing the sling after a few days, but it takes about 12 to 16 weeks to completely recover from a dislocated shoulder.

You'll usually be able to resume most activities within two weeks, but should avoid heavy lifting and sports involving shoulder movements for between six weeks and three months. Your care team will advise you.

You'll probably be off work for two to four weeks, or longer, if you have a physical job. Discuss this with your care team.

Egypt's first match - against Uruguay - is on the 15th of June.

He might be able to pull it off, but it's asking a lot; and it'll depend on the severity of the injury.

Fartsniffage wrote:

The Archregimancy wrote:
Early word is that it's a suspected dislocated shoulder, and not a fracture.

The NHS says:



Egypt's first match - against Uruguay - is on the 15th of June.

He might be able to pull it off, but it's asking a lot; and it'll depend on the severity of the injury.

And every defender at the world cup will be tugging on his arm.

The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

Starblaydia wrote:

The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

I hear that as essentially saying "He's not that badly injured and will be ready, insha'Allah"

Insha'Allah (literally "God willing") being some combination of "I'd like that to happen", "Maybe", "As if", and "Fuck knows".

The Archregimancy wrote:Sir, are you suggesting that Uruguayans might engage in underhand tactics?

I'm shocked! Shocked, I say!

Starblaydia wrote:

The Archregimancy wrote:Let's hope the Egyptians are right. Personal experience suggests Egyptian authorities are a little prone to overly optimistic assessments of time scales (ask me about my interactions with the new Grand Egyptian Museum near the Pyramids one of these days)

I hear that as essentially saying "He's not that badly injured and will be ready, insha'Allah"

Insha'Allah (literally "God willing") being some combination of "I'd like that to happen", "Maybe", "As if", and "Fuck knows".

It was a very tough night, but I'm a fighter. Despite the odds, I'm confident that I'll be in Russia to make you all proud. Your love and support will give me the strength I need.

Petition to punish Sergio Ramos for 'intentionally hurting' Mo Salah hits 216K

Shofercia wrote:That was a horrible move by Sergio Ramos. I think he should be denied a chance to play in the World Cup if Mo Salah ends up being too hurt to play. What a horrible move! I'd push for a Champions League rematch, had the Liverpool Keeper not ended up as Real Madrid's MVP. Liverpool should blame the Russians for hacking Loris Karius' gloves

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On a more serious note: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest ... ague-final

Petition to punish Sergio Ramos for 'intentionally hurting' Mo Salah hits 216K

Thoughts NSG?

Fartsniffage wrote:The moment I saw it I thought it was intentional.

I say it should be a 3-5 UEFA game ban. It was a shitty thing to do but not really any worse than a studs up over the ball challenge or a stamp.

Shofercia wrote:

Fartsniffage wrote:The moment I saw it I thought it was intentional.

I say it should be a 3-5 UEFA game ban. It was a shitty thing to do but not really any worse than a studs up over the ball challenge or a stamp.

I agree, it was definitely intentional, but here's my issue with a 3 game UEFA ban. It doesn't really punish Ramos. You're playing 6 group stage games, and Real Madrid is good enough to withstand even a 6 game UEFA ban on Ramos. And then, when the final comes again, Ramos can just take out another star. Such a ban would essentially encourage the same thing to happen all over again. If you're doing a UEFA ban, it should be for at least 8 games, so that Real Madrid can feel the impact. Otherwise, you're just giving him a free ride.