Neu Leonstein wrote:Ok, so after my initial, naive numerical predictions, now I've finally found a little time to write down what I actually think might happen.
GroupsGroup AThere was no way to prevent it given that Russia is the host, but still... bad group and bad first game of the tournament. Uruguay should comfortably win three out of three - from what I've read they've gone through a period of reinventing themselves a bit, playing a more possession-based game when the situation calls for it. Versatility is good for these tournaments, but for the early stages it'll just be useful when dealing with teams that want to sit back and counter. It's fairly even between the other three, I think. Russia will probably squeeze past, but I suspect it will be low-scoring, boring games with the Russians forced to hold possession against Egypt and Saudi Arabia looking to counter, and having little idea of what to do with it. Given that, it's possible that either of those matches can throw a surprise, and so I wouldn't be that surprised for either Egypt or Saudi Arabia to make it through.
1. Uruguay 2. Russia 3. Egypt 4. Saudi Arabia
Group BSpain vs Portugal is one of the matches to watch in the group stages, and I'd expect Spain to take that one, and win the other two as well. Portugal might struggle though... Iran doesn't offer that much (though it'll be hard to get goals against them), but Morocco might. I think the Morocco v Portugal match should be quite interesting - it will probably just end up with Portugal eking out a win, but if it's a draw or even an upset win for Morocco... drama. Portugal is one of my more likely candidates for top nations to crash out early.
1. Spain 2. Portugal 3. Morocco 4. Iran
Group CFrance won't cruise through, and there might be ongoing dramas about who to play and in what combination, but they should have enough to finish first. Australia will be last - they'll try to put up a fight, and may get a draw or two, but I don't see them getting wins at this point. But between the other two... hard to tell. Denmark is probably better than Peru, but they're close enough. On the basis of the order of games though, I'd think Denmark has the better cards, because they play France last, who will presumably have qualified and rest a few players.
1. France 2. Denmark 3. Peru 4. Australia
Group DArgentina managed by Sampaoli should be great fun, but they did have their arses handed to them 6:1 by Spain at the end of March. So clearly there are some weaknesses there in the back. Not an easy group either. Iceland, Croatia and Nigeria can all cause upsets. I'm still going to go ahead and put the Argies first, but they're the top candidate for an upset early exit, in my book. Hard to pick the others ... Iceland has discipline and good freekick takers: in the qualification they lost to Croatia 2:0 and then beat them 1:0, to finish the table on top - they can obviously grind out results. Croatia obviously has big star names in midfield especially, but they've switched coaches recently. And Nigeria is a counter-attacking team that obviously did well in recent times, and might upset anyone who has a bad day. I'll go with Croatia, but with little conviction... could go any way, really.
1. Argentina 2. Croatia 3. Nigeria 4. Iceland
Group EAs I said above, I think Brazil look good. They looked good in the friendly against Germany I watched too. It's the classic story of relying a lot on full-backs going forward though, and good sides will be looking to use that space. Less of a problem in this group though, so they should be able to win it. Biggest challenge is Switzerland, I think, who also have very good full-backs and might be the most likely to cause dramas if they can hold out in defense. Serbia I don't think will offer much, and I think they'll lose to Costa Rica to finish last. I think Switzerland can beat Costa Rica, so they get second.
1. Brazil 2. Switzerland 3. Costa Rica 4. Serbia
Group FI think Germany should cruise through, with the first game being the hardest. Mexico has a decent side all over the pitch, though they did lose pretty clearly to Denmark last night, so there's that. Sweden are similar to Mexico, but not amazing - they made it this far by beating Italy in a close knock-out and relegating the Dutch to third in their group, so they could beat Mexico and should beat Korea. So I don't know... bit of a toss-up for me between Mexico and Sweden. Korea should finish last.
1. Germany 2. Mexico 3. Sweden 4. South Korea
Group GBoring! England and Belgium to go through. I'm picking England first, on the theory that they'll get into a bit of a goal frenzy against one of the weaker opponents and get a better goal difference than the Belgians. This will also lead to the British media getting completely carried away... Meanwhile, the Belgians will also win, and slightly spectacularly. Then a draw for the final match between the two better sides. I think Tunisia beats Panama in the last game, so they get third.
1. England 2. Belgium 3. Tunisia 4. Panama
Group HBest group to watch, maybe? Colombia should get first and Poland second, but who knows. Japan should be last, but I think Senegal might have a shot here - if they catch the Poles on a bad day, hopefully they can be the African team to make it through.
1. Colombia 2. Poland 3. Senegal 4. Japan
Knock-OutsThe below is just make-believe... anything beyond the R16 is too uncertain to even try predicting. The teams are too close, and the matches too idiosyncratic.
R16Uruguay beats Portugal
France beats Croatia
Brazil beats Mexico
England beats Poland
Spain beats Russia
Argentina beats Denmark
Germany beats Switzerland
Colombia beats Belgium
QFFrance beats Uruguay
Brazil beats England
Spain beats Argentina
Germany beats Colombia
SFFrance beats Brazil
Spain beats Germany
3rdGermany beats Brazil
FinalSpain beats France
Posted: Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:03 am
