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California to Vote on Splitting in Three in November

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Vassenor
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Vassenor » Fri Jun 15, 2018 3:56 pm

Valgora wrote:
Vassenor wrote:So is there a point to this beyond basically making it impossible for Democrats to win a national election ever again?

Exactly how would this make it impossible for Democrats to win a national election?


Because California has been a consistent source for a large number of Democrat EC votes for years, while the proposed divide would make two of the three new states almost guaranteed to post Republican EC.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:03 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Valgora wrote:Exactly how would this make it impossible for Democrats to win a national election?


Because California has been a consistent source for a large number of Democrat EC votes for years, while the proposed divide would make two of the three new states almost guaranteed to post Republican EC.

Would two of the three be guaranteed to be a source of Republican electoral votes?
How are you so sure?

And why should I care about Democrats getting electoral college votes or losing them? I hate both parties and the electoral college.
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Vassenor
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Vassenor » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:08 pm

Valgora wrote:
Vassenor wrote:
Because California has been a consistent source for a large number of Democrat EC votes for years, while the proposed divide would make two of the three new states almost guaranteed to post Republican EC.

Would two of the three be guaranteed to be a source of Republican electoral votes?
How are you so sure?

And why should I care about Democrats getting electoral college votes or losing them? I hate both parties and the electoral college.


Current electoral map

Proposed splits.
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Valgora
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Ex-Nation

Postby Valgora » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:10 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Valgora wrote:Would two of the three be guaranteed to be a source of Republican electoral votes?
How are you so sure?

And why should I care about Democrats getting electoral college votes or losing them? I hate both parties and the electoral college.


Current electoral map

Proposed splits.


That's looks much more like they're would be more electoral votes for the Democrats than less.
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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:12 pm

Valgora wrote:


That's looks much more like they're would be more electoral votes for the Democrats than less.


Democrats are blue, which under the split would be concentrated basically in the yellow.
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Valgora
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Postby Valgora » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:14 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Valgora wrote:
That's looks much more like they're would be more electoral votes for the Democrats than less.


Democrats are blue, which under the split would be concentrated basically in the yellow.

The yellow would be guaranteed democrat electoral college votes.
The orange would be guaranteed republican electoral votes.
The blue ain't guaranteed republican electoral votes.

So only one of the three is a guaranteed loss of electoral college votes for the Democrats.


And the orange ain't going to have a large number of electoral college votes. The yellow and blue will most likely have more.
Last edited by Valgora on Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The Corparation
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Corporate Police State

Postby The Corparation » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:14 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Valgora wrote:Exactly how would this make it impossible for Democrats to win a national election?


Because California has been a consistent source for a large number of Democrat EC votes for years, while the proposed divide would make two of the three new states almost guaranteed to post Republican EC.

With current trends that probably wouldn't be the case for long, if ever as current trends would likely outpace the process of splitting the state. There's a decent chance all 3 would become firmly blue. Or at the very least 2 blue and a swing state. "Northern California" still has the bay area and Sacramento which both would dominate over the rural north. "California" is dominated by LA and other coastal cities most of which go blue. "Southern California" has lots of rural areas and San Diego which both tend to go red, but it still has Orange County, Riverside and San Bernadino (All 3 of which are trending to blue to various degrees).
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The Corparation
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Postby The Corparation » Fri Jun 15, 2018 4:21 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Valgora wrote:Would two of the three be guaranteed to be a source of Republican electoral votes?
How are you so sure?

And why should I care about Democrats getting electoral college votes or losing them? I hate both parties and the electoral college.


Current electoral map

Proposed splits.

That Electoral Map is outdated. This was 2016. All of Southern California went for Hillary. I don't doubt that a more moderate Republican candidate could win in the hypothetical state in the future but they aren't exactly safe votes. (I do however doubt the future existence of moderate republican candidates)
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Proctopeo
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Anarchy

Postby Proctopeo » Fri Jun 15, 2018 5:01 pm

The Corparation wrote:

That Electoral Map is outdated. This was 2016. All of Southern California went for Hillary. I don't doubt that a more moderate Republican candidate could win in the hypothetical state in the future but they aren't exactly safe votes. (I do however doubt the future existence of moderate republican candidates)

It's more one solid blue state (coastal California), one probably blue state (Northern California) and one purple-ish state (Southern California) than anything.
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