Possible war with Syria?

[New Axiom]

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Ya I know. And they really wouldn’t go after Israel because they have pretty good relations with the Israelis

Not to mention Israel has pretty good ties with the west.

[Mujahidah]

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

The answer is more war obviously

I mean, if the "WMD" CB worked against Iraq and nobody batted an eye why not Syria...

Oh right, Russia... Oh wait, Russia wouldn't cause WW3 over Syria.

Honestly I'm not seeing a regime change war being beneficial politically to the Trump admin here, and I don't think the US can much afford one. Its not the best idea. I think the bombings will be enough of a message delivered for Russia for it to retreat a bit.

[Thermodolia]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

Welp there goes Lebanon

[Frostnia]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

Eh. Hezbollah already hates Israel. 'Sides, Israel is pretty good at dealing with terrorist groups.

[Eol Sha]

I'm well aware of that That's not the issue for me. The issue is that for all the insults the president lobs at Assad and for all the outrage he feels (if you give him the benefit of the doubt) over kids being killed by chemical weapons, he does not actually want to do something about Assad. These strikes don't even rise to the level of putting a band-aid over a gaping wound. Its more like a doctor giving himself a hug as a stranger bleeds out after having his leg chopped off.

I have a good feeling that if Trump were to do what really needs to be done with Assad, you'd be even more upset.

If you mean a full-scale invasion then, yeah, I'd just find another reason, among the many that already exist, to oppose this administration. I don't know if Russia would intervene to protect Assad, but I'd rather not take that chance. And that's leaving aside the overall point that the US has no business intervening in the conflict, period.

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

Then something more needs to be done.

I think less needs to be done. The US should stay out of the conflict. What we're doing now is little more than a political show.

[Mujahidah]

Ya I know. And they really wouldn’t go after Israel because they have pretty good relations with the Israelis

Not to mention Israel has pretty good ties with the west.

No the West has good ties with Israel. Israel's been a pretty bad and selfish ally towards the US, quite honestly.

[Thermodolia]

Have the reports of the Russians scrambling air units out of Latakia been confirmed yet or not?

Unconfirmed. Actually denied

[Albrenia]

After the whole nuclear missile debacle, some weird part of me just doesn't really think this is real.

Heh.

Would be weird if suddenly breaking news declared it was all a mixup because someone pushed the wrong button on the military drills board.

[Eol Sha]

The answer is more war obviously

I mean, if the "WMD" CB worked against Iraq and nobody batted an eye why not Syria...

Oh right, Russia... Oh wait, Russia wouldn't cause WW3 over Syria.

Honestly I'm not seeing a regime change war being beneficial politically to the Trump admin here, and I don't think the US can much afford one. Its not the best idea. I think the bombings will be enough of a message delivered for Russia for it to retreat a bit.

Was that not the point of the strikes on chemical weapons facilities last year? What did that accomplish? Effing nothing as far as I can see.

[New Axiom]

Have the reports of the Russians scrambling air units out of Latakia been confirmed yet or not?

Unconfirmed. Actually denied

Denied? May I ask for some sauce?

[Costa Fierro]

Israel has nukes of its own, allegedly, so I imagine Russia wouldn't want to target them directly.

Russia is also on good terms with the Israelis and Putin doesn’t want to damnage that. If anyone gets their rate it’s SA, which I’m not going to shed a tear over

And then Saudi Arabia calls for a global jihad when the Russians attack the Holy Land. It sure as hell doesn't want to do that.

Have the reports of the Russians scrambling air units out of Latakia been confirmed yet or not?

They were unconfirmed, likely misinterpreted. Given none of the strikes hit anything that was occupied or run by the Russians and Iranians it doesn't seem like Russia would have a reason to.

[Mujahidah]

Honestly I'm not seeing a regime change war being beneficial politically to the Trump admin here, and I don't think the US can much afford one. Its not the best idea. I think the bombings will be enough of a message delivered for Russia for it to retreat a bit.

Was that not the point of the strikes on chemical weapons facilities last year? What did that accomplish? Effing nothing as far as I can see.

Russia didn't draw a red line last year. Russia drew a big red line this year. The US violated it, calling the bluff. This is a much bigger blow to Russia because the US has directly disregarded a clear ultimatum.

[Thermodolia]

Not to mention Israel has pretty good ties with the west.

No the West has good ties with Israel. Israel's been a pretty bad and selfish ally towards the US, quite honestly.

Israel pretty much has ties with every major power, China, Russia, the US. They are literally the going on own nation

[New Axiom]

Honestly I'm not seeing a regime change war being beneficial politically to the Trump admin here, and I don't think the US can much afford one. Its not the best idea. I think the bombings will be enough of a message delivered for Russia for it to retreat a bit.

Was that not the point of the strikes on chemical weapons facilities last year? What did that accomplish? Effing nothing as far as I can see.

No, last year only a single airbase was targeted.

[Oil exporting People]

When Poland completes its force expansion and modernization efforts in the early 2020s

Most of it is complete afaik, but then modernisation is a constant process. It's mostly the Navy still waiting for new orders of subs and frigates (functionally useless against Russia), the army is basically complete minus the roll-out of the new service rifle (this year?) and some more purchases of attack helicopters, but the air force has been a bit fucked by not knowing what it wants and having a variety of american, soviet and european multirole fighters and being unable to combine all of them in a workable formation. There's some other investments proposed but most on hold, most notably a purchase of 70 5th gen jets, but the inability of the Americans to pump out F35s fast enough and at low cost enough has slowed that down and turned attention to Swedish or Japanese alternatives

In reality though there's very strong doubt whether Russia wouldn't just roll over everyone until Calais. Poland can easily hold off Kaliningrad regiments if not defeat them, but a main force through Belarus or after defeating Ukraine would easily steamroll Poland and Germany irrespective of how long and well Poland would be able to hold them off and wait for NATO reinforcements. This includes Germany which by now is basically equivalent to Poland's armed forces in land and naval forces if not air. Holding off Russians from heading West would be a task for the Italians and the French.

Realistically Poland's biggest defence against Russia isn't a professional army but the half a million paramilitaries who are training guerrilla warfare and the wider morale and patriotism in defending the nation. Doesn't help that Poland is basically one big lump of open terrain and great plains, ideal for materiel and mechanised units, not for guerrillas.

NATO is not the force of the 1980s; there are no serious munitions caches, REFORGER hasn't been run since '92, and the "Big Four" (US, UK, France, and Germany) have no real combat units in place.

The UK doesn't have any units to be deployed in the first place. Post-2008 cuts have cut the Army itself to 80 000 regulars (smaller than at the time of the American Revolution). Even while 900 troops were sent to Estonia, 5 500 troops of British Forces Germany (mainly 20th Armoured) are due to return by 2019 as the UK ends its interests in mainland Europe. Apart from Ajax there's also nothing being modernised, and no money is being put aside, so the land forces will quickly diminish as a modern force. At least there's plenty of training, I guess. The Royal Navy is borderline shambolic according to a host of different admirals and commodores who retired in the last few years and the RAF will have just two dozen F35's (B) by 2023. That's fewer than Denmark, by the way.

There's also this.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lion ... jmjvhjqhzh

Friendly reminder the U.S. Air Force has had less training for pilots than the Russians since about 2013, the new S-400 is advanced enough to clear out air sectors, Russian artillery outranges our own, and the U.S. Army has only 20 combat ready BCTs; it took 23 to do Iraq.

[Albrenia]

No the West has good ties with Israel. Israel's been a pretty bad and selfish ally towards the US, quite honestly.

Israel pretty much has ties with every major power, China, Russia, the US. They are literally the going on own nation

They've certainly got all their ducks in a row. Then again, they pretty much have to, considering most of their neighbours want them dead.

[Eol Sha]

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

Well it might. The strikes have hit chemical weapons storage and production facilities

That's a lot of risk based on a possibility.

[MERIZoC]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

It is unconfirmed, and from "Hezbollah sources" which are less than reliable, as actual Hezbollah sources tend not to go blabbing to journalists.

[Eol Sha]

Was that not the point of the strikes on chemical weapons facilities last year? What did that accomplish? Effing nothing as far as I can see.

Russia didn't draw a red line last year. Russia drew a big red line this year. The US violated it, calling the bluff. This is a much bigger blow to Russia because the US has directly disregarded a clear ultimatum.

A PR blow, maybe. I doubt the Russians are going to stop aiding Assad.

[Thermodolia]

Unconfirmed. Actually denied

Denied? May I ask for some sauce?

Apparently it’s just unconfirmed. I thought I saw something that said it was denied but it wasn’t

[Thermodolia]

Russia didn't draw a red line last year. Russia drew a big red line this year. The US violated it, calling the bluff. This is a much bigger blow to Russia because the US has directly disregarded a clear ultimatum.

A PR blow, maybe. I doubt the Russians are going to stop aiding Assad.

That’s all we really need.

[MERIZoC]

Like Turnbull, Trudeau has issued his support for the strikes.

[Costa Fierro]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

It is unconfirmed, and from "Hezbollah sources" which are less than reliable, as actual Hezbollah sources tend not to go blabbing to journalists.

More than likely. I don't understand why it'd attack Israel after it's Syrian operational HQ was among the targets of the air and missile strikes.

[Thermodolia]

Like Turnbull, Trudeau has issued his support for the strikes.

Nothing out of the ordinary

[Rio Cana]

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Israel has nukes of its own, allegedly, so I imagine Russia wouldn't want to target them directly.

When it comes to Israel, Russia has good diplomatic ties with Israel.

One thing Russia can do in getting back at the West could be to place nukes in Syria.