Possible war with Syria?

[Hakons]

From what the news shows, U.S. strikes have hit a chemical research facility and two armories. All three locations are suspected to be involved with chemical weapons. Sec. Mattis has said this was a "one-time shot" to deter Assad, but Trump's speech suggested more military action.

[New Emeline]

You can't fault us for being worried.

I can't fault you for being worried but I mean I'm not. Nuclear war is literally a 0% chance here. Russia isn't stupid enough to think it can take on the US conventionally, and the moment nukes get involved its game over for Russia, the US, and the World. Nothing's going to happen here.

Assuming the US doesn't commit itself to another stupid regime change operation and just lets its air/sea power make the point here, this was the right move.

Oh I don't think anybody is going nuclear any time soon, but it's still concerning.

[Mujahidah]

Why is everyone acting like Russia is actually going to go to war with the US? Its suicidal and Putin knows that. Putin, as much as I detest the man, is a rational actor. A rational actor does not take state suicide as an option over a setback. Russia will 100% back off. Sending them the message that the US isn't afraid of them is a perfectly good thing.

Yes but do you trust any world leader right now? Anyone can make an irrational decision at any time.

I trust Putin to not commit suicide. The red line was a calculated measure. He knew it was a bluff going into it, and he thought he could get away with it like he's managed to get away with escalations in the past. He didn't this time. He's going to back off.

[New Axiom]

There is no easy decision here. There never is.

If we do this, we for certain will make another ISIS and another Refugee crisis. We will be putting lives to the torch now and years from now.

Or: we can just not go to war and save millions of lives.

Yeah I kinda like option two.

[Thermodolia]

Why is everyone acting like Russia is actually going to go to war with the US? Its suicidal and Putin knows that. Putin, as much as I detest the man, is a rational actor. A rational actor does not take state suicide as an option over a setback. Russia will 100% back off. Sending them the message that the US isn't afraid of them is a perfectly good thing.

Ya the last thing Putin wants is the Poles and the Baltics to have a reason to enact revenge

[Kramanica]

(Image)

The Russian embassy to the US has released a statement.

Can I get a source?
Cause if this is real:
oh fuck

Checked it. Its real.

[Eol Sha]

Apparently the last time we "punished" Syria for using chemical weapons didn't do anything. Why in the world would this new play end differently?

Yes. The US doesn't need to further involve itself in the civil war. Like I told Therm, a dead kid is a dead kid whether by barrel bombs or chemical weapons.

So just let Assad win by any means? I don't like that option.

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

[Arlenton]

War is hell dude. There’s really no morality in any war. Even in WWII we did some pretty fucked up things.

I'm well aware of that That's not the issue for me. The issue is that for all the insults the president lobs at Assad and for all the outrage he feels (if you give him the benefit of the doubt) over kids being killed by chemical weapons, he does not actually want to do something about Assad. These strikes don't even rise to the level of putting a band-aid over a gaping wound. Its more like a doctor giving himself a hug as a stranger bleeds out after having his leg chopped off.

I have a good feeling that if Trump were to do what really needs to be done with Assad, you'd be even more upset.

[Mujahidah]

From what the news shows, U.S. strikes have hit a chemical research facility and two armories. All three locations are suspected to be involved with chemical weapons. Sec. Mattis has said this was a "one-time shot" to deter Assad, but Trump's speech suggested more military action.

Mattis is the one in control here. Trump doesn't have a coherent policy on Syria. He tweeted constantly about letting Assad be Assad back when he was campaigning, then shot a bunch of cruise missiles, then did nothing, now this. I think Mattis knows more about what our ME policy is than Trump, to be honest. Trump honestly likely listens more to him than Bolton - he's one of the few people who has likely had rows with Trump and survived. That implies Trump, for better or for worse, respects him.

[Hammer Britannia]

Why is everyone acting like Russia is actually going to go to war with the US? Its suicidal and Putin knows that. Putin, as much as I detest the man, is a rational actor. A rational actor does not take state suicide as an option over a setback. Russia will 100% back off. Sending them the message that the US isn't afraid of them is a perfectly good thing.

Ya the last thing Putin wants is the Poles and the Baltics to have a reason to enact revenge

Oooh boy, the things my mother (pole) wants to do with Russia... they're scary.

[Costa Fierro]

In case no one saw it, here's the source:
https://twitter.com/RusEmbUSA/status/984980480234868736

That’s not good.

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

[Arlenton]

So just let Assad win by any means? I don't like that option.

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

Then something more needs to be done.

[New Axiom]

Yes but do you trust any world leader right now? Anyone can make an irrational decision at any time.

I trust Putin to not commit suicide. The red line was a calculated measure. He knew it was a bluff going into it, and he thought he could get away with it like he's managed to get away with escalations in the past. He didn't this time. He's going to back off.

Yeah, you’re probably right.

[Thermodolia]

So just let Assad win by any means? I don't like that option.

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

Well it might. The strikes have hit chemical weapons storage and production facilities

[Albrenia]

That’s not good.

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Israel has nukes of its own, allegedly, so I imagine Russia wouldn't want to target them directly.

[Costa Fierro]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

[New Axiom]

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

Then something more needs to be done.

No! Don’t say that; we’ll just end up with another twenty year long brushfire war.

[Albrenia]

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

Weren't they already super hostile anyway?

[Hammer Britannia]

So just let Assad win by any means? I don't like that option.

If Assad truly did use chemical weapons, and I think he did, these strikes won't stop him from doing it again. Like I said, these strikes are virtue signals. They won't practically do anything to stop Assad from doing this again. The strikes last year didn't do that and the ones tonight will probably follow that pattern.

The answer is more war obviously

I mean, if the "WMD" CB worked against Iraq and nobody batted an eye why not Syria...

Oh right, Russia... Oh wait, Russia wouldn't cause WW3 over Syria.

[Thermodolia]

That’s not good.

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Ya I know. And they really wouldn’t go after Israel because they have pretty good relations with the Israelis

[Mujahidah]

I trust Putin to not commit suicide. The red line was a calculated measure. He knew it was a bluff going into it, and he thought he could get away with it like he's managed to get away with escalations in the past. He didn't this time. He's going to back off.

Yeah, you’re probably right.

Yeah I mean Putin doesn't strike me as someone who just draws lines on a whim. Everything he has done in the past has been a calculated escalation.

[Oil exporting People]

Have the reports of the Russians scrambling air units out of Latakia been confirmed yet or not?

[Costa Fierro]

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Israel has nukes of its own, allegedly, so I imagine Russia wouldn't want to target them directly.

Not allegedly, it's the world's worst-kept secret. However as it's not a party to the NPT, it's not really bound by international law (but refuses to act because of the logical implications).

IntelCrab is reporting Hezbollah have mobilised all missile operators in Hermel and it's "special forces" in anticipation of increased hostilities with Israel.

Weren't they already super hostile anyway?

Yes but the vast majority of Hezbollah's fighters were in Syria fighting alongside it's paymasters.

[Thermodolia]

There's not much Russia can do in terms of "consequences". It won't attack Western military facilities directly because it's own ones were left alone. It can't attack Western-friendly regimes, unless somehow Russia wants to piss off Saudi Arabia or go after Israel. It doesn't have many options.

Israel has nukes of its own, allegedly, so I imagine Russia wouldn't want to target them directly.

Russia is also on good terms with the Israelis and Putin doesn’t want to damnage that. If anyone gets their rate it’s SA, which I’m not going to shed a tear over

[New Emeline]

After the whole nuclear missile debacle, some weird part of me just doesn't really think this is real.