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Trump MAGAThread XI: Button, Button, Who's Got The Button?

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Change This To An "American Politics" Thread?

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No
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Total votes : 214

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Cekoviu
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Postby Cekoviu » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:50 pm

Northern Davincia wrote:
Internationalist Bastard wrote:Cool
Can I sign up to be a slave in ancapistan or is it too late

It's never too late to work hard in Ancapistan.

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Petrasylvania
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Postby Petrasylvania » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:24 pm

Cekoviu wrote:
Northern Davincia wrote:It's never too late to work hard in Ancapistan.

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Ancaps are like neoFeudalists, they always assume they'll be in the ruling upper class rather than down with the lowly serfs.
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Kramanica
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Postby Kramanica » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:47 pm

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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:50 pm


In a Rasmussen poll, Kramanica. That's like citing an MSNBC poll to show that most Americans like Barack Obama.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:52 pm


and every other poll shows him in the mid thirties. They are a terrible pollster. They said Gillespie would win easily and he didn't

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Vassenor
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Postby Vassenor » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:52 pm

Farnhamia wrote:

In a Rasmussen poll, Kramanica. That's like citing an MSNBC poll to show that most Americans like Barack Obama.


All the other polls are fake news though.
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Farnhamia
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Postby Farnhamia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:53 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:In a Rasmussen poll, Kramanica. That's like citing an MSNBC poll to show that most Americans like Barack Obama.


All the other polls are fake news though.

Oh.

I forgot. :blush:
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo ... Ashmoria (Freedom ... or cake)
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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:54 pm

Vassenor wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:In a Rasmussen poll, Kramanica. That's like citing an MSNBC poll to show that most Americans like Barack Obama.


All the other polls are fake news though.

Yeah their all biased and Rasmussen is the only true one.

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Shofercia
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Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:55 pm



They're talking about the job that he's doing, not Trump's personality. And that's just one of the disconnects between the DNC and the voters. Most voters will vote for or against Trump based on the job that he's doing, rather than his personality, whereas for the DNC it seems to be all about his personality. One of my independent colleagues said something like this:

"Trump's a fucking bitch-ass-whore; that said, Obama cost me money, and Trump's making me money. Politics is bullshit, so I vote with my wallet!"

And I doubt that most independents think differently.
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Ifreann
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Founded: Aug 07, 2005
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Postby Ifreann » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:57 pm

Cannot think of a name wrote:
Ifreann wrote:Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man,"



No, no. When people ram things with their cars, it's because someone was threatening them. They were just trying to escape and the people barrier happened to be in the way.

Surely there will be a video soon recorded into a radio shack usb mic that purports to show definitively that it was all because of some dude somewhere talking about redirecting traffic.

Of that much we can be sure.


Cekoviu wrote:
Seangoli wrote:
I think I know who our sex ed teacher needs to be in this light...

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I think I just threw up a little in my mouth.

That's how you know it's working.

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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby San Lumen » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:57 pm

Shofercia wrote:


They're talking about the job that he's doing, not Trump's personality. And that's just one of the disconnects between the DNC and the voters. Most voters will vote for or against Trump based on the job that he's doing, rather than his personality, whereas for the DNC it seems to be all about his personality. One of my independent colleagues said something like this:

"Trump's a fucking bitch-ass-whore; that said, Obama cost me money, and Trump's making me money. Politics is bullshit, so I vote with my wallet!"

And I doubt that most independents think differently.

yet every other poll shows him in thirties for an approval rating and Republicans have been losing special elections left and right would have lose the Virginia House of Delegates had it not been for gerrymandering and bogus lawsuit in Newport News.
Last edited by San Lumen on Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Washington Resistance Army
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Posts: 53355
Founded: Aug 08, 2011
Father Knows Best State

Postby Washington Resistance Army » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:01 pm

Shofercia wrote:


They're talking about the job that he's doing, not Trump's personality. And that's just one of the disconnects between the DNC and the voters. Most voters will vote for or against Trump based on the job that he's doing, rather than his personality, whereas for the DNC it seems to be all about his personality. One of my independent colleagues said something like this:

"Trump's a fucking bitch-ass-whore; that said, Obama cost me money, and Trump's making me money. Politics is bullshit, so I vote with my wallet!"

And I doubt that most independents think differently.


There's a lot of truth here, this pretty much sums up every non-political person I know.
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Shofercia
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Posts: 31339
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:01 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
They're talking about the job that he's doing, not Trump's personality. And that's just one of the disconnects between the DNC and the voters. Most voters will vote for or against Trump based on the job that he's doing, rather than his personality, whereas for the DNC it seems to be all about his personality. One of my independent colleagues said something like this:

"Trump's a fucking bitch-ass-whore; that said, Obama cost me money, and Trump's making me money. Politics is bullshit, so I vote with my wallet!"

And I doubt that most independents think differently.

yet every other poll shows him in thirties for an approval rating.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html

RCP Average 2/9 - 2/22 -- 42.2
Marist 2/20 - 2/21 40
Rasmussen Reports 2/20 - 2/22 50
Economist/YouGov 2/18 - 2/20 44
Reuters/Ipsos 2/16 - 2/20 40
Harvard-Harris 2/16 - 2/19 45
Quinnipiac 2/16 - 2/19 37
Gallup 2/12 - 2/18 37
FOX News 2/10 - 2/13 43
PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/11 44


You sure about that?
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Shofercia
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:05 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
They're talking about the job that he's doing, not Trump's personality. And that's just one of the disconnects between the DNC and the voters. Most voters will vote for or against Trump based on the job that he's doing, rather than his personality, whereas for the DNC it seems to be all about his personality. One of my independent colleagues said something like this:

"Trump's a fucking bitch-ass-whore; that said, Obama cost me money, and Trump's making me money. Politics is bullshit, so I vote with my wallet!"

And I doubt that most independents think differently.


There's a lot of truth here, this pretty much sums up every non-political person I know.


I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.
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San Lumen
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Founded: Jul 02, 2009
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:10 pm

Shofercia wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
There's a lot of truth here, this pretty much sums up every non-political person I know.


I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.

If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.
Last edited by San Lumen on Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Fartsniffage
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Fartsniffage » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:11 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.

If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost.


It's America. Everyone is simply a temporarily embarrassed millionaire.

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Kramanica
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Founded: Jan 27, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Kramanica » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:33 pm

Shofercia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:yet every other poll shows him in thirties for an approval rating.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html

RCP Average 2/9 - 2/22 -- 42.2
Marist 2/20 - 2/21 40
Rasmussen Reports 2/20 - 2/22 50
Economist/YouGov 2/18 - 2/20 44
Reuters/Ipsos 2/16 - 2/20 40
Harvard-Harris 2/16 - 2/19 45
Quinnipiac 2/16 - 2/19 37
Gallup 2/12 - 2/18 37
FOX News 2/10 - 2/13 43
PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/11 44


You sure about that?

Well according to Vass they're fake news.
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Kramanica
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Founded: Jan 27, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Kramanica » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:35 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.

If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.

How many apocalyptic scenarios do you have?
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Freezic Vast
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Founded: Jul 30, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby Freezic Vast » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:46 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.

If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.

Do you and Flutters have to keep with these ridiculous hyperbole about how this country is being destroyed by Republicans? People said the same about Obama and nothing happened, and you are just using the same useless scare-mongering tactics that the Republican party is some evil virus of Satan and that a massive blue wave is coming.
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Kramanica
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Founded: Jan 27, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Kramanica » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:49 pm

Freezic Vast wrote:
San Lumen wrote:If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.

Do you and Flutters have to keep with these ridiculous hyperbole about how this country is being destroyed by Republicans? People said the same about Obama and nothing happened, and you are just using the same useless scare-mongering tactics that the Republican party is some evil virus of Satan and that a massive blue wave is coming.

I've been keeping track of San Lumen's apocalypse scenarios. They go like this:
  • Trump will get us into a nuclear war and kill us all
  • Republicans will kill us all with climate change
  • Republicans will kill all the bees and then kill us all
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Freezic Vast
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Ex-Nation

Postby Freezic Vast » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:51 pm

Kramanica wrote:
Freezic Vast wrote:Do you and Flutters have to keep with these ridiculous hyperbole about how this country is being destroyed by Republicans? People said the same about Obama and nothing happened, and you are just using the same useless scare-mongering tactics that the Republican party is some evil virus of Satan and that a massive blue wave is coming.

I've been keeping track of San Lumen's apocalypse scenarios. They go like this:
  • Trump will get us into a nuclear war and kill us all
  • Republicans will kill us all with climate change
  • Republicans will kill all the bees and then kill us all

So about the same kind of fear-mongering/fake apocalyptic scenarios that the mainstream media and people like Lumen and Flutters go on and on about that'll never happen?
20 year old, male from Pennsylvania and proud of it. Love sports like football, baseball and hockey, enjoy video games and TV. Music is love, music is life. I'm bi and conservative.
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Kramanica
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Posts: 5369
Founded: Jan 27, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Kramanica » Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:52 pm

Freezic Vast wrote:
Kramanica wrote:I've been keeping track of San Lumen's apocalypse scenarios. They go like this:
  • Trump will get us into a nuclear war and kill us all
  • Republicans will kill us all with climate change
  • Republicans will kill all the bees and then kill us all

So about the same kind of fear-mongering/fake apocalyptic scenarios that the mainstream media and people like Lumen and Flutters go on and on about that'll never happen?

Yep. And he wholeheartedly believes them all.
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Hayo
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Posts: 397
Founded: Jan 15, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Hayo » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:12 pm

Shofercia wrote:
San Lumen wrote:yet every other poll shows him in thirties for an approval rating.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6179.html

RCP Average 2/9 - 2/22 -- 42.2
Marist 2/20 - 2/21 40
Rasmussen Reports 2/20 - 2/22 50
Economist/YouGov 2/18 - 2/20 44
Reuters/Ipsos 2/16 - 2/20 40
Harvard-Harris 2/16 - 2/19 45
Quinnipiac 2/16 - 2/19 37
Gallup 2/12 - 2/18 37
FOX News 2/10 - 2/13 43
PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/11 44


You sure about that?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

This is another good resource. They're pretty similar, usually a tad lower than RCP, since they weight the polls based on their performance and reliability. That allows them to add in a lot more polls into their sample without polluting the results too much.
Last edited by Hayo on Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Shofercia
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Posts: 31339
Founded: Feb 22, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Shofercia » Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:42 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shofercia wrote:
I asked numerous people that I work with, what they thought about the Nunes Memo. Most were honest enough to admit that they had no clue, while most of the rest told me about their stance on the memo's impact of illegal immigration. Maybe around 10%-15% actually knew what it was.

We spent the day discussing Kylie Jenner instead, and her $1.3 billion tweet: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-twee ... 39000.html

Trump succeeded in making politics personal, and the DNC focused on annihilating his personality, which they did. But when the voters head to the ballot box in November, none of that will matter.

If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.


$1,000 may be pocket change for the stereotypical limo driving liberal, but for someone living day to day, even extending the hunting season by a week is a blessing.


Kramanica wrote:
San Lumen wrote:If it getting some pocket change is all that matters to people and in turn they vote in another Republican congress then this country is truly lost. Maybe one day when all the bees are gone from bee killing pesticides and there is no food to eat they will think about what they did all those years ago and regret it but by then it will be too late.

How many apocalyptic scenarios do you have?


Hey, the one with the bees was creative. I liked that one. And it's an actual problem that San Lumen's raising: https://www.epa.gov/pollinator-protecti ... e-disorder

It's just that most voters aren't going to let bees be the buzz in their votes.


Hayo wrote:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... l-ratings/

This is another good resource. They're pretty similar, usually a tad lower than RCP, since they weight the polls based on their performance and reliability. That allows them to add in a lot more polls into their sample without polluting the results too much.


The problem with 538 is that they don't take the Reverse Bradley-Wilder Effect into account. RCP, at least partially, accounts for said effect. I'd call it the Trump Effect, but that might be too much for some political scientists :P

The Bradley-Wilder Effect occurs when there are observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. (Patrick Reddy, 2002, Buffalo News) What happens is that, in order to not be perceived as racists, some of the white voters lie about who they're going to vote for, naming the black guy instead. The most famous case was the defeat of Tom Brady for the Governor of California, despite him leading George Deukmejian in the polls.

The Trump Effect is similar, in that supporting Trump can be toxic, so your average voter is going to tell the pollster that he or she opposes Trump when asked; however, when said voter is in the ballot box, the voter will check his/her economic losses/gains, and vote in favor of Trump, provided that Trump's policies were beneficial to said voter. As a result, Trump's real poll numbers are better than those shown on RCP, and much better than those shown on 538, making 538 effectively irrelevant.
Last edited by Shofercia on Fri Feb 23, 2018 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Valrifell
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Posts: 31063
Founded: Aug 18, 2013
Ex-Nation

Postby Valrifell » Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:17 pm

I still don't think the silent majority is an effect that has a measurable effect on polls and outcomes.
If Trump is toxic and supporting him is bad, then people wouldn't support him. They wouldn't lie and support him anyway, that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense especially when Trump supporters are outspoken.

They also love to drink liberal tears, which was the intent of the post that started this conversation.

Also polls, including those in 2016, are still very reliable sources of information.
Last edited by Valrifell on Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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