Iran Protests

[Vistulange]

Better, yes.

Six hours, for now. The Syrian Civil War started like this, as well. I'm not saying that we're about to see the Iranian Civil War, but things have a tendency to start small. Also, how do you define "stability"? Lack of political change? Lack of political turmoil?

Both. As well as security and consistency in policy. Occasionally, rather than zero dissent (Rather impossible), then resistance to disagreement, i.e. not being prone to populism, elitism or foreign pressure.

I mean, Brazil is probably the best example of this, as Iran pre-79 is a little sketchy. It was a semi-monarchial state, prosperous and stable by all above definitions with high popular support for the monarch for over 50 years until the late 80s. A foreign trip by the Emperor allowed a few rogue opportunist military colonels to seize power and declare a coup.

Not really unstable in any way .. in fact the coup itself was 'stable'... but nevertheless the political change, in all possible manners, could not be foreseen.

So foreseeing turmoil is a fairly good non-objective measurement of stability. If there is no reasonable way to predict turmoil other than pure speculative chance, then I'd say a country is stable.

I mean all of us can predict turmoil in Turkey, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Spain and others.

But that example is the prime example of instability. The institutions of the country were not grounded on firm foundations, allowing for a smooth takeover by military officers, as soon as one critical actor simply left the country for a very normal foreign visit. If you ask me, political stability is the capability of a country's institutions to withstand political shocks, such as coups, revolutions, revolts, uprisings and rebellions. From what you have told me, Brazil was highly unstable: It was very easy for the state institutions to be overturned and overtaken by military force, which was able to establish itself as a legitimate political actor.

To give a contrasting example, we can say that a military coup will never be successful in the United States, not because the US Armed Forces lack the physical capability to take over, but because its citizens - and by extension, its state institutions - would most likely not accept them as a legitimate actor. Moreover, US state institutions would be able to continue their tasks as prescribed in the law and Constitution, making for a stable state without unexpected shocks. The most unexpected "shock" the United States went through was the election of Donald Trump as President, and that was a perfectly normal, legitimate election, despite having a few issues here and there.

[San Marlindo]

So it's like Russia, then? They blame others for their self-destructive policies?

That's the problem with sanctions. They give the government something to blame for their own mistakes. And they usually work as a really good excuse.

Excuses wear thin eventually. Robert Mugabe blamed Western sanctions for Zimbabwe's economic implosion for over a decade, but the popular demonstrations which occurred when he was ousted made it clear the Zimbabwean people weren't buying it.

[Irona]

That's the problem with sanctions. They give the government something to blame for their own mistakes. And they usually work as a really good excuse.

Excuses wear thin eventually. Robert Mugabe blamed Western sanctions for Zimbabwe's economic implosion for over a decade, but the popular demonstrations which occurred when he was ousted made it clear the Zimbabwean people weren't buying it.

Yet the same hasn't happened in North Korea or Cuba after decades?

[Vistulange]

Excuses wear thin eventually. Robert Mugabe blamed Western sanctions for Zimbabwe's economic implosion for over a decade, but the popular demonstrations which occurred when he was ousted made it clear the Zimbabwean people weren't buying it.

Yet the same hasn't happened in North Korea or Cuba after decades?

This isn't exactly something you can look at in quantitative methods. I mean, there are many factors that could explain North Korea and Cuba - for example, a tighter control of media and the press, especially with North Korea, and the distribution of power within the framework of their respective political systems.

[Pilarcraft]

to update, the Anti-government protests are still going on, on the seventh day mark of the original protest in Mashhad (which was actually a protest staged by the opposition in a plan to get Rohani sacked). They're getting progressively more and more violent, with use of home-made grenades in Rasht, acts of arson against religious and governmental buildings in various cities. The Government tried to stage a pro-government protest yesterday, but it was not very successful (the state media edited protests from years ago, and didn't even do a good job at it, forgetting the current season and geographical state of the cities the "protests" were happening in).
Honestly, though. It's really funny, is the left just ignoring this because Neocons jumped on the bandwagon first? or idk is oppression not oppression if it isn't done by "Muh Western Imperialists"?

[Donut section]

Come on Iranians do the thing!
Do it well!

Then I will come see my dads village!

[-Ocelot-]

to update, the Anti-government protests are still going on, on the seventh day mark of the original protest in Mashhad (which was actually a protest staged by the opposition in a plan to get Rohani sacked). They're getting progressively more and more violent, with use of home-made grenades in Rasht, acts of arson against religious and governmental buildings in various cities. The Government tried to stage a pro-government protest yesterday, but it was not very successful (the state media edited protests from years ago, and didn't even do a good job at it, forgetting the current season and geographical state of the cities the "protests" were happening in).
Honestly, though. It's really funny, is the left just ignoring this because Neocons jumped on the bandwagon first? or idk is oppression not oppression if it isn't done by "Muh Western Imperialists"?

From the comments and articles I've read, it seems that both neocons and the "left"/progressives support the protests. The Republicans and neocons are happy to see another hostile ME country fall apart. It gives them new excuses to up the arms sales and defense spending, which is also one of Trump's promises. The left sees the protests as a potential victory of secularism over another theocracy and perhaps the end of the socially oppressive regime in Iran. Almost everyone wants the protesters to win but for different reasons.

Neocons may do more noise right now because they have a great incentive. They want Iran to have a complete breakdown like Syria. For them it would mean another decade of ludicrous military spending, arms sales, drone strikes etc. to keep the American military-industrial complex going.

[Pilarcraft]

From the comments and articles I've read, it seems that both neocons and the "left"/progressives support the protests. The Republicans and neocons are happy to see another hostile ME country fall apart. It gives them new excuses to up the arms sales and defense spending, which is also one of Trump's promises. The left sees the protests as a potential victory of secularism over another theocracy and perhaps the end of the socially oppressive regime in Iran. Almost everyone wants the protesters to win but for different reasons.

Neocons may do more noise right now because they have a great incentive. They want Iran to have a complete breakdown like Syria. For them it would mean another decade of ludicrous military spending, arms sales, drone strikes etc. to keep the American military-industrial complex going.

yeah, but if it wasn't for active international aid to the government, Syria wouldn't end up like it is rn. (Libya is different because libya was always a tribal society, and those tribes merely stopped fighting long enough to get rid of the common enemy, Ghaddafi). If you ask me, the only way Iran might end up Libya or Syria is if some country sides with the government militarily. Right now, there's a possibility of Hezbullah doing that, but I highly doubt it.

[Parti Ouvrier]

'Why did protests erupt in Iran?' - by Ahmad Sadri
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio ... 14891.html
^Good article on the Iranian protests.

[Greed and Death]

Trump should be silent this is a matter for the Iranian people

[Pilarcraft]

Trump should be silent this is a matter for the Iranian people

No, honestly, going against the Iranian Regime (even minuscule like this) is one of the few good things this guy has got going.

[Connori Pilgrims]

Trump should be silent this is a matter for the Iranian people

No, honestly, going against the Iranian Regime (even minuscule like this) is one of the few good things this guy has got going.

I actually think Trump should stay silent for now, at least while the protests haven't snowballed yet into an actual legit threat to the Ayatollahs.

The last thing these protesters need is to be labeled as "American collaborators" or "colour revolutionaries", the favorite label of authoritarian and illiberal regimes that love to paint any such protest as illegitimate.

[Pilarcraft]

No, honestly, going against the Iranian Regime (even minuscule like this) is one of the few good things this guy has got going.

I actually think Trump should stay silent for now, at least while the protests haven't snowballed yet into an actual legit threat to the Ayatollahs.

The last thing these protesters need is to be labeled as "American collaborators" or "colour revolutionaries", the favorite label of authoritarian and illiberal regimes that love to paint any such protest as illegitimate.

Honestly, if you read the State press reports (or, otherwise, the reports of States allied with the Iranian State), you'll realize that like always, the Ayatollahs call this protest a work of America, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Soros (this one's new XD), the Mujahideen, and then calls every protester "idiots" (or something ruder. the idiot tihng was the most polite one)

[Connori Pilgrims]

I actually think Trump should stay silent for now, at least while the protests haven't snowballed yet into an actual legit threat to the Ayatollahs.

The last thing these protesters need is to be labeled as "American collaborators" or "colour revolutionaries", the favorite label of authoritarian and illiberal regimes that love to paint any such protest as illegitimate.

Honestly, if you read the State press reports (or, otherwise, the reports of States allied with the Iranian State), you'll realize that like always, the Ayatollahs call this protest a work of America, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Soros (this one's new XD), the Mujahideen, and then calls every protester "idiots" (or something ruder. the idiot tihng was the most polite one)

The Iranian authorities would say that, that's no doubt. They're kind of predictable with their anti-American hate.

But its another thing to feed them "evidence" that would reinforce their narrative.

Actually its less about the Iranian govt and their allies (who of course would discredit them in such a manner automatically), and more the undecided and vacillating who aren't yet sure what to make or do with this.

For better or worse, I fear the US - especially Trump's US - does not have enough of a comfortable propaganda/moral/ethical advantage to aid these protesters without the significant risk of unintended blowback. Hell, its not even clear yet that these protesters are *that* widely supported within Iran itself.

[Kubra]

An indicator of civil war/coup/revolution's is military confidence in the existing administration. Put simply, soldiers gotta defect and open up armouries, or an outside force has to have a real good means of shovelling ammo into the region.
This isn't the case for Iran.

[Oil exporting People]

Haven't been keeping up with it, but the lack of attention seems to suggest the regime has already managed to oust the dissidents.

[Pilarcraft]

Haven't been keeping up with it, but the lack of attention seems to suggest the regime has already managed to oust the dissidents.

not really. it's still going on. The number of cities in protest are slowly decreasing, I must admit, but the protests themselves are still going on. That said, I do admit that merely protesting outside every afternoon won't do a thing.

[Oil exporting People]

not really. it's still going on. The number of cities in protest are slowly decreasing, I must admit, but the protests themselves are still going on. That said, I do admit that merely protesting outside every afternoon won't do a thing.

Pretty much as I said then; the regime did as good a job of internal security as they did the last time.

[Pilarcraft]

not really. it's still going on. The number of cities in protest are slowly decreasing, I must admit, but the protests themselves are still going on. That said, I do admit that merely protesting outside every afternoon won't do a thing.

Pretty much as I said then; the regime did as good a job of internal security as they did the last time.

not really. the 09 protests were only in one city (Tehran), and they shut off pretty quick. This one happened in like, at least 60 cities (Tehran itself hasn't really seen much action). Ignoring the 1979 revolution, this is the biggest unrest Iran has seen in the last century. (and nope. The Regime's done a pretty horrible job, to be honest, nowhere as "impressive" as the 09 protests)

[Oil exporting People]

not really. the 09 protests were only in one city (Tehran), and they shut off pretty quick. This one happened in like, at least 60 cities (Tehran itself hasn't really seen much action). Ignoring the 1979 revolution, this is the biggest unrest Iran has seen in the last century. (and nope. The Regime's done a pretty horrible job, to be honest, nowhere as "impressive" as the 09 protests)

So they kept the capital safe and have managed to eliminate wider protests? If anything, that suggests they've gotten a lot better at internal security.

[Pilarcraft]

So they kept the capital safe and have managed to eliminate wider protests? If anything, that suggests they've gotten a lot better at internal security.

*sighs* OK, seems like I really need to explain this.
1) They haven't "kept the capital safe". The Protests are primarily by the lower class. the ones who (since Iran doesn't really have "private industry" (Well, technically it does but every major industry is owned either BY the state or by the people who run the state, privately)) aren't getting paid. add that to the prices going higher (considerably higher, at that) which means that the guy who gets less that 800,000 tumans (something close to 200$) per month doesn't earn enough to buy anything (that is if they pay them. the majority of the people protesting haven't gotten paid in more than 6 months, they did run protests about that, but those were a)nonviolent b)quelled by the cops.
Now Tehran is one of the few cities that has a high middle and upper class. Every single Lower Class district in Tehran has been in violent protests non-stop this last week. The richer districts? well, not yet. But as far as I know they might join in any time soon.

2) They didn't "Eliminate Wider protests", since the number of protesting cities started with 1 (Mashhad) and reached 60 in a week, getting increasingly more violent (add that to the fact that more and more state agents (cops, Military personnel, etc etc) are dissenting and refusing to attack protesters). If anything, they failed to contain it. Considering the protests' unique status as a primarily worker-oriented struggle (and also the fact that the Government has failed to even understand, much less acknowledge the protesters' reasons for protesting), this won't go anywhere anytime soon. even if it does, it has already given the people something they needed: they're clearly no longer afraid of the state oppression (seeing as there's actual fighting, both armed and non-armed, in places like Zanjan, Rasht, Tabriz, Dorud, Khomeini-shahr, Kermanshah, and Sanandaj)

and 3) compare this protest to the ones in 09, and then the ones a decade before that. they're getting weaker and weaker by the decade lmao.
Still, I am not quite sure if this can go anywhere. people here and surprisingly against violence, even after 25 people dead and more than 1000 injured. If it is to go anywhere, more people need to arm themselves.

[Oil exporting People]

*sighs* OK, seems like I really need to explain this.
1) They haven't "kept the capital safe". The Protests are primarily by the lower class. the ones who (since Iran doesn't really have "private industry" (Well, technically it does but every major industry is owned either BY the state or by the people who run the state, privately)) aren't getting paid. add that to the prices going higher (considerably higher, at that) which means that the guy who gets less that 800,000 tumans (something close to 200$) per month doesn't earn enough to buy anything (that is if they pay them. the majority of the people protesting haven't gotten paid in more than 6 months, they did run protests about that, but those were a)nonviolent b)quelled by the cops. Now Tehran is one of the few cities that has a high middle and upper class. Every single Lower Class district in Tehran has been in violent protests non-stop this last week. The richer districts? well, not yet. But as far as I know they might join in any time soon.

I'm confused now as to your statement of "Tehran itself hasn't really seen much action"; which is correct? If it's both in that the poor districts rioted but that the city at large was peaceful would indeed suggest improvements in capital security. I'm also rather doubtful about it blowing up, given your own admission that the protests are fading.

2) They didn't "Eliminate Wider protests", since the number of protesting cities started with 1 (Mashhad) and reached 60 in a week, getting increasingly more violent (add that to the fact that more and more state agents (cops, Military personnel, etc etc) are dissenting and refusing to attack protesters). If anything, they failed to contain it. Considering the protests' unique status as a primarily worker-oriented struggle (and also the fact that the Government has failed to even understand, much less acknowledge the protesters' reasons for protesting), this won't go anywhere anytime soon. even if it does, it has already given the people something they needed: they're clearly no longer afraid of the state oppression (seeing as there's actual fighting, both armed and non-armed, in places like Zanjan, Rasht, Tabriz, Dorud, Khomeini-shahr, Kermanshah, and Sanandaj)

That they failed to prevent this outbreak is indeed accurate but is understandable in any system; the PRC had the '89 Protests and has managed to endure just as easily to the present. Other examples are obvious in this regard too. With that said, given by your admission the protests are declining, without major use of military forces it must be said, is indicative of a more sophisticated regime response given it was able to take on and reduce a mass dissident action.

and 3) compare this protest to the ones in 09, and then the ones a decade before that. they're getting weaker and weaker by the decade lmao.
Still, I am not quite sure if this can go anywhere. people here and surprisingly against violence, even after 25 people dead and more than 1000 injured. If it is to go anywhere, more people need to arm themselves.

And yet, all the protests fail.

[Pilarcraft]

I'm confused now as to your statement of "Tehran itself hasn't really seen much action"; which is correct? If it's both in that the poor districts rioted but that the city at large was peaceful would indeed suggest improvements in capital security. I'm also rather doubtful about it blowing up, given your own admission that the protests are fading.

1) I did not say "The protests were fading", I said that the number had slowly decreased. Last Night's protest in Tehran (both in Enqelab and Valiasr Streets, as well as Piruzi and Haft-e-Tir) were the biggest ones that have happened in Tehran yet. But all these regions are lower-middle and lower class regions. As I said, there's been minimal open protests in the higher class districts such as Niyavaran, Tajrish, or Shahrak-e-Gharb yet. then again, even in the 79 Revolution, Tehran didn't see much action until the last few days, so I can't make an exact statement what this means.

That they failed to prevent this outbreak is indeed accurate but is understandable in any system; the PRC had the '89 Protests and has managed to endure just as easily to the present. Other examples are obvious in this regard too. With that said, given by your admission the protests are declining, without major use of military forces it must be said, is indicative of a more sophisticated regime response given it was able to take on and reduce a mass dissident action.

again, there is no evidence, yet, that the protests are declining. if You understood that from what I said (or If I actually said it) that has been a mistake. I said that there's been a slow decrease. The State media is claiming there is no protests (because, you know, state media), and I am not yet sure what the SC meeting decided today. or if their meeting has happened yet (I just know there's supposed to be a meeting today). All said and done, the protest has not, yet, reached a level that could be critical for the State, but it's the closest we've got yet (and, it's the most likely to reach it, since the people are getting more and more angry)

And yet, all the protests fail.

That's a horribly pessimistic view to have, honestly.

[Rangila]

Its probably all fomented by Israel.

[Pilarcraft]

Its probably all fomented by Israel.

it was started by a group spearheaded by Ahmadinejad (the former president). He has taken a soft opposition policy against the current government since he was disqualified to run for president in the recent election. the actual plan was by the Hardliners (who he sides with more), to make sure Rohani would get sacked.
Of course, they didn't expect the hungry and jobless people of Mashhad to jump the bandwagon.
I do admit that the US, Israel and the Arabian states seem to throw more fuel in the fire but honestly, claiming this is anytihng but the people finally getting pissed enough to stop being scared just shows how little you know of what's been happening in Iran.