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US Midterm Election 2018 Megathread- It's Kavanaugh

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 2:51 pm
by Morgantown West Virginia
I know, I know already another election year in the United States, but the midterms this time around are probably the most important in a long time. So, we here on NS are going to talk about it. With the tide turning against the GOP (supposedly) can the Dems win back the House and the Senate this time.

As the maker of this (and hopefully future megathreads) regarding the 2018 midterms!


Here are the competitive House races, according to Inside Elections as of July 6, 2018:

Likely Democratic
MN-7
NV-4
PA-5 (flip from R)
PA-6 (flip from R)


Lean Democratic
FL-27 (flip from R)
FL-7
PA-8 (from Likely Dem)

Tilt Democratic
AZ-1
AZ-2 (flip from R)
NH-1
NJ-11 (flip from R)
NJ-2 (flip from R)
NV-3
PA-7 (flip from R)

Tossup
CA-39
CA-49
IA-1
MI-11
MN-1
MN-2
MN-8
PA-17
TX-23
VA-10
WA-8


Tilt Republican
CA-10
CA-25
CA-48
CO-6
FL-26
IL-6
NC-9
NE-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
OH-12
PA-1
TX-7

Lean Republican
CA-45
IL-12
KS-2
KS-3
KY-6
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-7
UT-4
VA-7
WI-1

Likely Republican
AR-2
AZ-8
CA-21
CA-4
CA-50
GA-6
GA-7
IA-3
IL-13
IN-2
MI-6
MI-7
MT- At-Large
NC-13
NJ-3
NY-11
NY-24
OH-1
OH-14
PA-10
TX-21
TX-32
VA-2
VA-5
WA-5
WV-3

Here is the state of the Senate races from Inside Elections as of July 6,2018

Safe Democratic:
CA
CT
DE
HI
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
NJ
NM]
NY
RI
VA
VT
WA

Likely Democratic
MN Special Election
OH (from lean Democratic)
WI (from lean Democratic)

Lean Democratic
WI (moved from lean Democratic)

Tilt Democratic
MT
WV (moved from tossup)

Tossup
AZ
FL
IN
MO
NV

Tilt Republican
ND (flip from Dem)

Lean Republican
TN

Likely Republican
TX

Safe Republican
MS
MS Special Election
NE
WY
UT

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:06 pm
by Morgantown West Virginia
Tossup Senate Races according to Cook Political Report:
IN
MO
WV
MN
AZ
NV
TN

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:10 pm
by Major-Tom
Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).

As for the House, I expect a wave and a potential Democratic takeover of the house. But these midterms are just a little less than a year away, so I could be totally and absolutely proven wrong in many ways.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:13 pm
by Morgantown West Virginia
Major-Tom wrote:Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).

As for the House, I expect a wave and a potential Democratic takeover of the house. But these midterms are just a little less than a year away, so I could be totally and absolutely proven wrong in many ways.


Totally agree, with basically every GOP representative in CA and NY in trouble, and with some representatives not organized at all for a campaign, that could lead to that.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:17 pm
by Washington Resistance Army
I can absolutely see the GOP gaining seats in the Senate, really not sure about the House because I don't pay a whole ton of attention to them but I'd probably have that lean R as well.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:39 pm
by Shofercia
Major-Tom wrote:Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).

As for the House, I expect a wave and a potential Democratic takeover of the house. But these midterms are just a little less than a year away, so I could be totally and absolutely proven wrong in many ways.


A lot of people in California are unhappy about the nerfing of the Local Tax Exemption. I wonder how long it'll take Republicans to get the memo.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 5:56 pm
by Somecoldwetislands
Could well see the democrats re-taking the house, senate is trickier. The victory in Alabama makes it a plausible scenario, as does Democrats general national advantage but it'll probably come down to individual races. The fact Tennessee could be close means that, even if thatseat is likely to go eventually to the republicans, their resources will be spread thinner and victories in Nevada and Arizona, coupled with holds elsewhere, would do the trick. I could see a scenario where the Dems get it to 50-50 and Susan Collins flips allegiance to give them a majority.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:15 pm
by Xmara
Major-Tom wrote:Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).


And that sentiment is why I think the Republicans will keep the majority, but will still lose seats.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:57 pm
by Abraxim
After all the liberal hissy fits this year, I wont be voting anyone Democratic.

This year I saw people dressed as vaginas.
Dressed as penises.
Block more traffic.
Suddenly care about statues.
Vandalize said statues.
Saw you all say Math is white privilege.
Scream at the sky.
I listened to every possible way Trump could be removed.
I read more biased articles than I can count.
I saw Trump attempt to keep his promises.

If Trump did nothing else, your ridiculous outrage is enough to gain my support this time around, and for Republican senators too.

So sorry Democrats, you all galvanized us republicans into supporting Trump through all the ridiculousness this past year. This time, it's a straight Republican ticket for me. Your party didn't stand for reason, but for outrage. Those of us on the fence were forced to move right because the left is flat out embarrassing at this point.

Even your humor is stale. The small hands joke was funny, once, 2 years ago.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:57 pm
by San Lumen
Washington Resistance Army wrote:I can absolutely see the GOP gaining seats in the Senate, really not sure about the House because I don't pay a whole ton of attention to them but I'd probably have that lean R as well.

I think you'd have everything at lean R

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:58 pm
by San Lumen
Lets also not forget the 38 governorships up next year along with many other statewide offices and most state legislatures.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:59 pm
by Washington Resistance Army
San Lumen wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:I can absolutely see the GOP gaining seats in the Senate, really not sure about the House because I don't pay a whole ton of attention to them but I'd probably have that lean R as well.

I think you'd have everything at lean R


?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:04 pm
by The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp
Abraxim wrote:Saw you all say Math is white privilege.


Yeah, I don't remember saying that.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:07 pm
by Abraxim
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Abraxim wrote:Saw you all say Math is white privilege.


Yeah, I don't remember saying that.


Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans. I went from blue dog democrat to alt right Republican without even changing any position or stance.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:10 pm
by Bakery Hill
Abraxim wrote:
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Yeah, I don't remember saying that.


Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans. I went from blue dog democrat to alt right Republican without even changing any position or stance.

That's what emotional reactions can do.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:18 pm
by The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp
Abraxim wrote:
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Yeah, I don't remember saying that.


Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans.



Look, all I'm saying is don't say we all said or did a thing.

My point was that I'm getting tired of members of the center left being put in the same boat as SJWs.

Adding to that, I have seen liberal outrage being pointed at his abysmal tax plan, budget that takes money away from the CDC, his letting go of Net Neutrality, there attempted ditching of homeless vets, and rolling back policies that are keeping people alive.

The effects of the absurd outrage have sadly taken there toll on moderate republicans. And I want it to be known that the absurd outrage was something I did not support.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:19 pm
by Abraxim
Bakery Hill wrote:
Abraxim wrote:
Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans. I went from blue dog democrat to alt right Republican without even changing any position or stance.

That's what emotional reactions can do.


I Agree. It is scary. Last year this time, I was so far left on the Republican scale, I considered becoming a democrat. Then the election happened, and the response was so nasty from the left, I never looked into it again. By inauguration, I regretted not voting for Trump, and by March, if message boards are any indication, one would have thought I am Hitler's long lost son by what people claim of me. Im just here thinking, not one of my positions have changed, so how did all this happen?

Truth is I don't want to be associated with that kind of behaviour. I'll take the few nutcases in my party over the entire progressive wing of the left any day, and let the chips fall where they may.

It is sad really, US Politics has devolved into the state it is in today.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:20 pm
by Bakery Hill
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Abraxim wrote:
Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans.



Look, all I'm saying is don't say we all said or did a thing.

My point was that I'm getting tired of members of the center left being put in the same boat as SJWs.

Adding to that, I have seen liberal outrage being pointed at his abysmal tax plan, budget that takes money away from the CDC, his letting go of Net Neutrality, there attempted ditching of homeless vets, and rolling back policies that are keeping people alive.

The effects of the absurd outrage have sadly taken there toll on moderate republicans. And I want it to be known that the absurd outrage was something I did not support.

alt right << good republicans << centre >> good democrats >> sjws

is that how you think politics works?

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:27 pm
by The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp
Abraxim wrote:
Bakery Hill wrote:That's what emotional reactions can do.


I Agree. It is scary. Last year this time, I was so far left on the Republican scale, I considered becoming a democrat. Then the election happened, and the response was so nasty from the left, I never looked into it again. By inauguration, I regretted not voting for Trump, and by March, if message boards are any indication, one would have thought I am Hitler's long lost son by what people claim of me. Im just here thinking, not one of my positions have changed, so how did all this happen?

Truth is I don't want to be associated with that kind of behaviour. I'll take the few nutcases in my party over the entire progressive wing of the left any day, and let the chips fall where they may.

It is sad really, US Politics has devolved into the state it is in today.



I don't want to be associated with that kind of behavior ether.

That was why I got miffed that you said "All people on the left did X" when I wasn't doing that.

I'm sorry that I was an asshole to you.


Bakery Hill wrote:
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:

Look, all I'm saying is don't say we all said or did a thing.

My point was that I'm getting tired of members of the center left being put in the same boat as SJWs.

Adding to that, I have seen liberal outrage being pointed at his abysmal tax plan, budget that takes money away from the CDC, his letting go of Net Neutrality, there attempted ditching of homeless vets, and rolling back policies that are keeping people alive.

The effects of the absurd outrage have sadly taken there toll on moderate republicans. And I want it to be known that the absurd outrage was something I did not support.

alt right << good republicans << centre >> good democrats >> sjws

is that how you think politics works?



Center > democrats > republicans > SJW's > Alt right

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:29 pm
by Abraxim
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Abraxim wrote:
Of course a liberal would resort to minor grammatical points over a substantive reply about the state of liberal outrage this past year and it's effects on moderate republicans.



Look, all I'm saying is don't say we all said or did a thing.

My point was that I'm getting tired of members of the center left being put in the same boat as SJWs.

Adding to that, I have seen liberal outrage being pointed at his abysmal tax plan, budget that takes money away from the CDC, his letting go of Net Neutrality, there attempted ditching of homeless vets, and rolling back policies that are keeping people alive.

The effects of the absurd outrage have sadly taken there toll on moderate republicans. And I want it to be known that the absurd outrage was something I did not support.


Thanks. To this, I can reply.

I can agree there, the lumping of people together is bad for parties. A moderate Dem doesn't want to be lumped in with SJWs, any more than a Trump supporter wants to be lumped in with David Duke. Someone once told me a few months back, when trying to explain why I support Trump on some policies (Not all), they said I support Rape. I'm just like WTF?

Sadly, the more extreme elements of a party is what is televised, or you tubed about. Its easy to do, but really galvanizing. It is insane, really. And we all know these midterms are going to be hyped up too.

As my neighbor put it, Its time to pick your side. I've picked mine, but I disagree with that sentiment, there seems to be no middle ground left to stand on anymore, because then your disavowed by both sides.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:33 pm
by Bakery Hill
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Abraxim wrote:
I Agree. It is scary. Last year this time, I was so far left on the Republican scale, I considered becoming a democrat. Then the election happened, and the response was so nasty from the left, I never looked into it again. By inauguration, I regretted not voting for Trump, and by March, if message boards are any indication, one would have thought I am Hitler's long lost son by what people claim of me. Im just here thinking, not one of my positions have changed, so how did all this happen?

Truth is I don't want to be associated with that kind of behaviour. I'll take the few nutcases in my party over the entire progressive wing of the left any day, and let the chips fall where they may.

It is sad really, US Politics has devolved into the state it is in today.



I don't want to be associated with that kind of behavior ether.

That was why I got miffed that you said "All people on the left did X" when I wasn't doing that.

I'm sorry that I was an asshole to you.


Bakery Hill wrote:alt right << good republicans << centre >> good democrats >> sjws

is that how you think politics works?



Center > democrats > republicans > SJW's > Alt right

I don't think you understood my wonderful graph very well.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:35 pm
by Abraxim
alt right << good republicans << centre >> good democrats >> sjws

is that how you think politics works?


More like:

Libertarians - Trumpets - Neocons - centrists - The Democrats down the street - Progressives

Alt Righters and The Commie Antifa types are all on their own level.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:37 pm
by Bakery Hill
Abraxim wrote:
alt right << good republicans << centre >> good democrats >> sjws

is that how you think politics works?


More like:

Libertarians - Trumpets - Neocons - centrists - The Democrats down the street - Progressives

Alt Righters and The Commie Antifa types are all on their own level.

I was trying to show a(n idiotic) left right spectrum, which is why the arrows go different directions from the center, not showing what I liked and disliked. That'd look very different.

Come to think of it I should have propbably put the right on the right. Ah well.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:47 pm
by The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp
Abraxim wrote:
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:

Look, all I'm saying is don't say we all said or did a thing.

My point was that I'm getting tired of members of the center left being put in the same boat as SJWs.

Adding to that, I have seen liberal outrage being pointed at his abysmal tax plan, budget that takes money away from the CDC, his letting go of Net Neutrality, there attempted ditching of homeless vets, and rolling back policies that are keeping people alive.

The effects of the absurd outrage have sadly taken there toll on moderate republicans. And I want it to be known that the absurd outrage was something I did not support.


Thanks. To this, I can reply.

I can agree there, the lumping of people together is bad for parties. A moderate Dem doesn't want to be lumped in with SJWs, any more than a Trump supporter wants to be lumped in with David Duke. Someone once told me a few months back, when trying to explain why I support Trump on some policies (Not all), they said I support Rape. I'm just like WTF?

Sadly, the more extreme elements of a party is what is televised, or you tubed about. Its easy to do, but really galvanizing. It is insane, really. And we all know these midterms are going to be hyped up too.

As my neighbor put it, Its time to pick your side. I've picked mine, but I disagree with that sentiment, there seems to be no middle ground left to stand on anymore, because then your disavowed by both sides.



Yes, I can agree with that.

Lumping people should not happen. I have no idea what that guy was talking about.

As for picking a side, I choose to remain center left. The disintegration of the center and other moderates drifting right or left is a bad thing beacuse extremism is bad.

PostPosted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:49 pm
by Bakery Hill
The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp wrote:
Abraxim wrote:
Thanks. To this, I can reply.

I can agree there, the lumping of people together is bad for parties. A moderate Dem doesn't want to be lumped in with SJWs, any more than a Trump supporter wants to be lumped in with David Duke. Someone once told me a few months back, when trying to explain why I support Trump on some policies (Not all), they said I support Rape. I'm just like WTF?

Sadly, the more extreme elements of a party is what is televised, or you tubed about. Its easy to do, but really galvanizing. It is insane, really. And we all know these midterms are going to be hyped up too.

As my neighbor put it, Its time to pick your side. I've picked mine, but I disagree with that sentiment, there seems to be no middle ground left to stand on anymore, because then your disavowed by both sides.



Yes, I can agree with that.

Lumping people should not happen. I have no idea what that guy was talking about.

As for picking a side, I choose to remain center left. The disintegration of the center and other moderates drifting right or left is a bad thing beacuse extremism is bad.

Calling Thomas the Tank Engine a fascist is not drifting to the left. You generally find much better opinions on these things as you move towards the left, rather than the neoliberal idpol centre.