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US Midterm Election 2018 Megathread- It's Kavanaugh

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Who wins the AL-2 GOP Runoff on July 17th?

Rep. Martha Roby
16
42%
Bobby Bright
22
58%
 
Total votes : 38

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Insaeldor
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Insaeldor » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:28 am

Dems will deffinetly pick up seats in the house, I can't say it'll flip the house but it'll narrow the GOO's majority. I can't see democrats pickup seats in the senate, if anything will see republicans increase their share in the senate given the political geography of the senate elections this year.
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Liriena
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Postby Liriena » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:33 am

Insaeldor wrote:Dems will deffinetly pick up seats in the house, I can't say it'll flip the house but it'll narrow the GOO's majority. I can't see democrats pickup seats in the senate, if anything will see republicans increase their share in the senate given the political geography of the senate elections this year.

The thing about the Senate elections is that, if the swings we've seen in special elections this year carry onto those, I don't think it's all that unlikely that the Democrats will keep or even increase their number of seats in the Senate. Even in the special elections they lost, there was a substantial shift in the Democrats' favor.
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Arlenton
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Postby Arlenton » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:58 am

Not sure how this will go. Obvious GOP losses in the House, but how many losses is the question. The senate I'm not too sure about but it's up for grabs for Dems (thanks Steve Bannon and Roy Moore you fucking assholes), but there still are a few red state Dems so IDK.

Like almost every midterm, it's all around not good news for the President's party.

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Arlenton
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Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Arlenton » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:59 am

Insaeldor wrote:Dems will deffinetly pick up seats in the house, I can't say it'll flip the house but it'll narrow the GOO's majority. I can't see democrats pickup seats in the senate, if anything will see republicans increase their share in the senate given the political geography of the senate elections this year.

Nevada and Arizona though.

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The Black Forrest
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby The Black Forrest » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:09 am

I would prefer one of them to go back to democratic simply to restore a "natural" checks and balances.

It may happen but most likely the demos will pick up enough seats to annoy the crap out of the Repubs just like the repubs "worked across the aisle" though the last administration.
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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:26 am

I have a strong feeling that all of Congress changes party next year, more realistic is a blue house and a red Senate.

Either will effectively reduce the further impact of the Donald.
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Fauxia
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Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Fauxia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:59 am

No idea how this will go, really. While it’s possible the dems win a 51-49 Senate, it seems somewhat unlikely that they don’t lose any seats, although there may be some races we don’t realize are competitive yet. It’s also possible dems win Senate 51-49, but the GOP could poach someone over. Personally, I think Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill will have difficult times winning their seats back. My prediction here, for the moment, is 51-49 GOP.

As for the house, I think the GOP has enough that it’s unlikely they lose it altogether, though it’s possible. It seems more likely that they fall down to about 220-225 though.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:03 pm

Xmara wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).


And that sentiment is why I think the Republicans will keep the majority, but will still lose seats.

How? They only have a one seat majority. If they lose any more seats they will have no majority. The only way they keep the majority is if the senate is split 50/50. Which is honestly not going to happen
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Xmara
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Xmara » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:19 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Xmara wrote:
And that sentiment is why I think the Republicans will keep the majority, but will still lose seats.

How? They only have a one seat majority. If they lose any more seats they will have no majority. The only way they keep the majority is if the senate is split 50/50. Which is honestly not going to happen


Why was I thinking they had a larger majority? One seat, huh...
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Thermodolia
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:26 pm

Xmara wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:How? They only have a one seat majority. If they lose any more seats they will have no majority. The only way they keep the majority is if the senate is split 50/50. Which is honestly not going to happen


Why was I thinking they had a larger majority? One seat, huh...

Well after Jones takes his seat they will only have a one seat majority, technically two when you have the VP breaking ties.
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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:19 pm

The most generic analysis, and one that I think still holds most likely in aggregate is Democrats flipping the house and still coming up short in the senate, likely by about the margins they currently have. If the national environment (and lets be honest, there hasn't been a denationalized midterm since at least '86) is favorable enough for the Democrats to take a house majority, then the senate is still going to be possible, albeit more difficult because of the map, for them making a Democratic congress the second most likely possibility. A reduced Republican majority in both chambers (with some musical chairs in the senate) is also plausible. And it's just barely possible that Democrats will pick up House seats, but not enough and actually flip the senate, if vulnerable Democratic incumbents have strong enough individual brands and campaign smartly, though that's easily the least likely outcome.

Personally, as a partisan Democrat my preferred scenario is Democratic gains in the house, but not a majority, and a flipped senate. So while I may get nice things in 2018, I'd say it's most likely that the party will actually be left in a deceptively weak position.

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UED
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Ex-Nation

Postby UED » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:25 pm

I think the Dems will probably win between 30-50+ seats in the House, the Republicans are too demoralized and disorganized whereas the Democratic base (the leadership is in chaos though lol) is way too energized to be stopped at this point anything short of Hillary Clinton being an alien lizard controlling the illuminati or sth.

The Senate? Missouri and Indiana's incumbents are both Dems and both are very vulnerable. I think the remaining Democrats in swing/red states though (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota Montana) will all survive reelection due to a series of strong incumbents + blue waves. Arizona and Nevada might both go blue so they'll probably cancel out the losses. Tennessee could theoretically go blue but I'm not sure. Texas is too far of a long shot at this point.
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The Union of American Republics
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Founded: Dec 26, 2017
Ex-Nation

Postby The Union of American Republics » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:43 pm

I don't believe that Democrats will actually win a majority in either the house or the senate after the way they've been acting for the past year. To top that off, they have no message, no strategy, and a divided base (progressives and moderates). The only thing that they have really been saying is "We aren't Trump" which is not really a good message. Even if they are energized, Republicans are as well, as we do not want another Democratic congress after what happened in the early Obama years. The Alabama election gave many Democrats hope, but we need to remember that the sole reason that Moore was defeated was because of the pedophile accusations, and even with that, he lost by one percent of the vote.

So my main point is that Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up, because they're in for a fight.

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Valrifell
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Postby Valrifell » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:52 pm

The Union of American Republics wrote:I don't believe that Democrats will actually win a majority in either the house or the senate after the way they've been acting for the past year. To top that off, they have no message, no strategy, and a divided base (progressives and moderates). The only thing that they have really been saying is "We aren't Trump" which is not really a good message. Even if they are energized, Republicans are as well, as we do not want another Democratic congress after what happened in the early Obama years. The Alabama election gave many Democrats hope, but we need to remember that the sole reason that Moore was defeated was because of the pedophile accusations, and even with that, he lost by one percent of the vote.

So my main point is that Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up, because they're in for a fight.


Take into consideration that the average Democratic swing in recent elections has been ~16 points, and Democrats lead on a generic ballot by a similar margin. Further, recall that Trump is the least popular president this far in since they started recording approval rating, the less popular the president the bigger the midterm losses, and the party in power is sure to lose seats either way in midterms. The numbers don't lie, Republicans are the ones who are going to be in a fight for 2018, not Democrats.
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Major-Tom
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:58 pm

UED wrote:I think the Dems will probably win between 30-50+ seats in the House, the Republicans are too demoralized and disorganized whereas the Democratic base (the leadership is in chaos though lol) is way too energized to be stopped at this point anything short of Hillary Clinton being an alien lizard controlling the illuminati or sth.

The Senate? Missouri and Indiana's incumbents are both Dems and both are very vulnerable. I think the remaining Democrats in swing/red states though (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota Montana) will all survive reelection due to a series of strong incumbents + blue waves. Arizona and Nevada might both go blue so they'll probably cancel out the losses. Tennessee could theoretically go blue but I'm not sure. Texas is too far of a long shot at this point.


McCaskill, in my opinion, is the Democrat I'd say is most likely to lose. She would've lost in 2012, but she held onto her seat because Akin was an absolute bumbling idiot that was denounced by a lot of the GOP as well.

Donnelly will also likely lose his Indiana seat. Heitkamp, Manchin, and Tester are all popular enough to retain their seats if they utilize a good strategy and emphasize their relative political independence that has kept them politically viable in red states. Florida is actually going to be a pure tossup, but I think Nelson can narrowly beat Scott if he uses Scott's gubernatorial record to Scott's disadvantage.

Tennessee theoretically could, but I simply think the Cook Report is wrong to call it a tossup. I'd say it is leaning to likely Republican at this point in time.

Arizona and Nevada could easily go blue. Sinema will win the primary here in AZ, and I hope Ward wins the GOP primary, because she'll be so easy to beat.
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Major-Tom
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:04 pm

McCaskill, talented politician or just lucky?

Not usually a fan of the Weekly Standard, but it ain't a bad article.
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Eibenland
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Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Eibenland » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:16 pm

Major-Tom wrote:McCaskill, talented politician or just lucky?

Not usually a fan of the Weekly Standard, but it ain't a bad article.

Or both. She got lucky to be running against Todd Akin, but I quite like her work in the Senate. She's certainly talented.
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Major-Tom
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New York Times Democracy

Postby Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:19 pm

Eibenland wrote:
Major-Tom wrote:McCaskill, talented politician or just lucky?

Not usually a fan of the Weekly Standard, but it ain't a bad article.

Or both. She got lucky to be running against Todd Akin, but I quite like her work in the Senate. She's certainly talented.

I can excuse her willingness to cooperate more with the GOP because of her homestate.
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Morgantown West Virginia
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Ex-Nation

Postby Morgantown West Virginia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:24 pm

On a separate issue though, this midterm will set up 2020 candidates' positions with elected officials. John Delaney should set up nicely as he campaigned in NH during the recent off-year elections. Bill de Blasio has already been in Iowa a decent number of times this year. Jason Kander has been in NH the most of any possible 2020 candidates. Don't forget Bernie, HRC, Chelsea Clinton, Mike Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, Garcetti, and so many more.

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Ngelmish
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Postby Ngelmish » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:12 pm

Major-Tom wrote:
UED wrote:I think the Dems will probably win between 30-50+ seats in the House, the Republicans are too demoralized and disorganized whereas the Democratic base (the leadership is in chaos though lol) is way too energized to be stopped at this point anything short of Hillary Clinton being an alien lizard controlling the illuminati or sth.

The Senate? Missouri and Indiana's incumbents are both Dems and both are very vulnerable. I think the remaining Democrats in swing/red states though (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota Montana) will all survive reelection due to a series of strong incumbents + blue waves. Arizona and Nevada might both go blue so they'll probably cancel out the losses. Tennessee could theoretically go blue but I'm not sure. Texas is too far of a long shot at this point.


McCaskill, in my opinion, is the Democrat I'd say is most likely to lose. She would've lost in 2012, but she held onto her seat because Akin was an absolute bumbling idiot that was denounced by a lot of the GOP as well.

Donnelly will also likely lose his Indiana seat. Heitkamp, Manchin, and Tester are all popular enough to retain their seats if they utilize a good strategy and emphasize their relative political independence that has kept them politically viable in red states. Florida is actually going to be a pure tossup, but I think Nelson can narrowly beat Scott if he uses Scott's gubernatorial record to Scott's disadvantage.

Tennessee theoretically could, but I simply think the Cook Report is wrong to call it a tossup. I'd say it is leaning to likely Republican at this point in time.

Arizona and Nevada could easily go blue. Sinema will win the primary here in AZ, and I hope Ward wins the GOP primary, because she'll be so easy to beat.


Donnelly is a talented politician and has a good brand. I'm not bullish on his chances, but I'd rate him a toss-up at worst. And the GOP primary in Indiana is threatening to undermine whoever the eventual candidate is.

Morgantown West Virginia wrote:On a separate issue though, this midterm will set up 2020 candidates' positions with elected officials. John Delaney should set up nicely as he campaigned in NH during the recent off-year elections. Bill de Blasio has already been in Iowa a decent number of times this year. Jason Kander has been in NH the most of any possible 2020 candidates. Don't forget Bernie, HRC, Chelsea Clinton, Mike Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, Garcetti, and so many more.


The midterms, depending on what themes emerge, are going to scare some potential candidates off, and until we know those results, it's hard to shake out the eventual field. Beyond that though, 2020 is going to be determined largely by how many candidates actually run in 2019 through South Carolina. The smaller the field, the more established names benefit. The larger the field, the more the Iowa winner dominates.

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New Rogernomics
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby New Rogernomics » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:20 pm

Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.

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Thermodolia
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:20 pm

New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.

I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed
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Xmara
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Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Xmara » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:43 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.

I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed


Wonder how Trump will feel when the majority consists of the opposition?
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Petrasylvania
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Ex-Nation

Postby Petrasylvania » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:31 pm

Xmara wrote:
Thermodolia wrote:I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed


Wonder how Trump will feel when the majority consists of the opposition?

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Liriena
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Left-wing Utopia

Postby Liriena » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:33 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.

I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed

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