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by Insaeldor » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:28 am
by Liriena » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:33 am
Insaeldor wrote:Dems will deffinetly pick up seats in the house, I can't say it'll flip the house but it'll narrow the GOO's majority. I can't see democrats pickup seats in the senate, if anything will see republicans increase their share in the senate given the political geography of the senate elections this year.
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Arlenton » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:58 am
by Arlenton » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:59 am
Insaeldor wrote:Dems will deffinetly pick up seats in the house, I can't say it'll flip the house but it'll narrow the GOO's majority. I can't see democrats pickup seats in the senate, if anything will see republicans increase their share in the senate given the political geography of the senate elections this year.
by The Black Forrest » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:09 am
by Valrifell » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:26 am
by Fauxia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:59 am
by Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:03 pm
Xmara wrote:Major-Tom wrote:Despite all the speculation that the Senate might flip, I think that it will not. I would be elated if it did, but even with anti-Republican sentiment almost nationwide, the map is just not looking good for the Dems (See MO, IN, ND).
And that sentiment is why I think the Republicans will keep the majority, but will still lose seats.
by Xmara » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:19 pm
Thermodolia wrote:Xmara wrote:
And that sentiment is why I think the Republicans will keep the majority, but will still lose seats.
How? They only have a one seat majority. If they lose any more seats they will have no majority. The only way they keep the majority is if the senate is split 50/50. Which is honestly not going to happen
by Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 12:26 pm
by Ngelmish » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:19 pm
by UED » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:25 pm
by The Union of American Republics » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:43 pm
by Valrifell » Tue Dec 26, 2017 2:52 pm
The Union of American Republics wrote:I don't believe that Democrats will actually win a majority in either the house or the senate after the way they've been acting for the past year. To top that off, they have no message, no strategy, and a divided base (progressives and moderates). The only thing that they have really been saying is "We aren't Trump" which is not really a good message. Even if they are energized, Republicans are as well, as we do not want another Democratic congress after what happened in the early Obama years. The Alabama election gave many Democrats hope, but we need to remember that the sole reason that Moore was defeated was because of the pedophile accusations, and even with that, he lost by one percent of the vote.
So my main point is that Democrats shouldn't get their hopes up, because they're in for a fight.
by Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 3:58 pm
UED wrote:I think the Dems will probably win between 30-50+ seats in the House, the Republicans are too demoralized and disorganized whereas the Democratic base (the leadership is in chaos though lol) is way too energized to be stopped at this point anything short of Hillary Clinton being an alien lizard controlling the illuminati or sth.
The Senate? Missouri and Indiana's incumbents are both Dems and both are very vulnerable. I think the remaining Democrats in swing/red states though (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota Montana) will all survive reelection due to a series of strong incumbents + blue waves. Arizona and Nevada might both go blue so they'll probably cancel out the losses. Tennessee could theoretically go blue but I'm not sure. Texas is too far of a long shot at this point.
by Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:04 pm
by Eibenland » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:16 pm
Major-Tom wrote:McCaskill, talented politician or just lucky?
Not usually a fan of the Weekly Standard, but it ain't a bad article.
by Major-Tom » Tue Dec 26, 2017 4:19 pm
Eibenland wrote:Major-Tom wrote:McCaskill, talented politician or just lucky?
Not usually a fan of the Weekly Standard, but it ain't a bad article.
Or both. She got lucky to be running against Todd Akin, but I quite like her work in the Senate. She's certainly talented.
by Morgantown West Virginia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 6:24 pm
by Ngelmish » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:12 pm
Major-Tom wrote:UED wrote:I think the Dems will probably win between 30-50+ seats in the House, the Republicans are too demoralized and disorganized whereas the Democratic base (the leadership is in chaos though lol) is way too energized to be stopped at this point anything short of Hillary Clinton being an alien lizard controlling the illuminati or sth.
The Senate? Missouri and Indiana's incumbents are both Dems and both are very vulnerable. I think the remaining Democrats in swing/red states though (Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Michigan, North Dakota Montana) will all survive reelection due to a series of strong incumbents + blue waves. Arizona and Nevada might both go blue so they'll probably cancel out the losses. Tennessee could theoretically go blue but I'm not sure. Texas is too far of a long shot at this point.
McCaskill, in my opinion, is the Democrat I'd say is most likely to lose. She would've lost in 2012, but she held onto her seat because Akin was an absolute bumbling idiot that was denounced by a lot of the GOP as well.
Donnelly will also likely lose his Indiana seat. Heitkamp, Manchin, and Tester are all popular enough to retain their seats if they utilize a good strategy and emphasize their relative political independence that has kept them politically viable in red states. Florida is actually going to be a pure tossup, but I think Nelson can narrowly beat Scott if he uses Scott's gubernatorial record to Scott's disadvantage.
Tennessee theoretically could, but I simply think the Cook Report is wrong to call it a tossup. I'd say it is leaning to likely Republican at this point in time.
Arizona and Nevada could easily go blue. Sinema will win the primary here in AZ, and I hope Ward wins the GOP primary, because she'll be so easy to beat.
Morgantown West Virginia wrote:On a separate issue though, this midterm will set up 2020 candidates' positions with elected officials. John Delaney should set up nicely as he campaigned in NH during the recent off-year elections. Bill de Blasio has already been in Iowa a decent number of times this year. Jason Kander has been in NH the most of any possible 2020 candidates. Don't forget Bernie, HRC, Chelsea Clinton, Mike Bloomberg, Kamala Harris, Gillibrand, Biden, Garcetti, and so many more.
by New Rogernomics » Tue Dec 26, 2017 8:20 pm
by Thermodolia » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:20 pm
New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.
by Xmara » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:43 pm
Thermodolia wrote:New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.
I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed
by Petrasylvania » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:31 pm
by Liriena » Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:33 pm
Thermodolia wrote:New Rogernomics wrote:Democrats may take one House, but not both in 2018. It is anyone's guess which House Democrats do best in. If they add two Senate seats, it'll leave Trump a lame duck on appointments, though some suggest the Democrats have a better chance in the House, as the Senate would be harder to crack.
I was watching CNN at the gym today apparently the democrats are leaving very few house seats uncontested and apparently there are 80 democrats who will be running unopposed
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
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