Germany unable to form a coalition: coming closer to a snap

[Purpelia]

Its not about race at all. Where did you even get race out of this?

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. And whilst that does in this case involve marginalizing the natives politically the race, gender or any other characteristics of the imported block don't matter in this context. It could literally be clones of the natives just brainwashed and the effect would be the same.

What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

I mentioned race because a lot of people think it is about race. You have your people that are screaming "white genocide!" and your people that are screaming "white cis-male patriarchy/apartheid!". They both make it about race. Most people aren't very educated on the topic.

Fair enough.

[Trumptonium]

Whoever gets blamed for the election would likely suffer for it. People hate being dragged out to vote so soon after a previous election.

Unlikely.

The FDP broke off coalition talks and Lindner is seemingly more popular with FDP existing and potential voters than ever before for being principled and refusing crazy policy ideas.

So basically the country likes him less, FDP voters like him more, net zero voter and seat change, ergo zero change to the seat composition.

[Ethel mermania]

I wonder what this does to Marcon's drive for a centralized European budget?

[Arotania]

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. [...]
What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

Too bad that people with a refugee status cannot vote in any German election.
Naturalization takes a minimum of 8 years of continuous residence in the country (average in 2016 was 17 years), language skills, economical independence and a few other things.
Your theory doesn't have any basis in reality.

[Purpelia]

I wonder what this does to Marcon's drive for a centralized European budget?

Hopefully murders it, urinates on the body and throws it in a ditch populated by cannibals.

[Trumptonium]

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. [...]
What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

Too bad that people with a refugee status cannot vote in any German election.
Naturalization takes a minimum of 8 years of continuous residence in the country (average in 2016 was 17 years), language skills, economical independence and a few other things.
Your theory doesn't have any basis in reality.

His theory makes perfect sense as we already see it in the United States with the amnesty'd Hispanic voting block and in the UK as well. France too, actually, especially in Paris and Marseilles.

I wonder what this does to Marcon's drive for a centralized European budget?

Well the FDP are determined to make sure it doesn't see the light of day, and the CSU doesn't seem like they want it either.

[Purpelia]

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. [...]
What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

Too bad that people with a refugee status cannot vote in any German election.
Naturalization takes a minimum of 8 years of continuous residence in the country (average in 2016 was 17 years), language skills, economical independence and a few other things.
Your theory doesn't have any basis in reality.

Not only does it have a basis in reality but it has actually happened in many countries world over. It's actually a relatively common tactic to accept refugees into your country, fast track them to citizenship and than have them become a voting block for you.
What's unusual here is not that it's happening but that it diverges from the norm as typically these sorts of things take the form of staging a crisis nearby in a place where the population is ethnically, culturally, religiously or in some other way already aligned with you that you can use as an excuse for said fast tracking. That incidentally is why there is so much friction over this in the west. There is no proper excuse to pander to the masses beyond appeals to sympathy.

And it's very relevant here because the scope here is not just restricted to Germany. If you resettle these people across half of Europe, each country having its own naturalization laws and than bully them into fast tracking their process (which the EU does for lots of other things) you end up with a population in those countries that is loyal not to those countries but to their own joined interest which is you.

Plus, even if we assume none of this post is true there is no reason to think Merkel is so blindingly short sited that she could not pursue a policy that would be helpful to her or her party a mere 8 years down the line. After all, she presumably pursued education and that takes longer to pan out.

[Albrenia]

This might be a naive question, but why would the refugees vote for the party that let them in once they were citizens able to vote? After that they'd be free to vote for whomever they please without fear of sudden deportation.

[Purpelia]

This might be a naive question, but why would the refugees vote for the party that let them in once they were citizens able to vote? After that they'd be free to vote for whomever they please without fear of sudden deportation.

Assuming honest proper refugees and not some sort of economic migrant thing refugees tend to feel a sense of isolation and generally do not ever properly assimilate into the society they came into. Reason being that they did not come into that place willingly but because they had to. It's actually not terribly reasonable to expect a refugee to want and change his culture given that he would have preferred not to change his home either. We can expect they do it on pain of not accepting them. But we can't reasonably expect them to want to or like doing so.
That and they tend to fear being forced out of that new place too. That part just comes with the territory of being traumatically forced out of your home once. That kind of thing tends to make you just a bit worried.
End result is they will tend to clump into neat communities you can easily pander to by playing on those fears and pandering to their culture. Or, if they are several distinct culture blocks that hate each other you can also play them off against one another for extra points.

And when that happens they become a strong and relatively unified voting block for you to exploit. And in that, the party that brought them in has several distinct advantages:
1. That party has already shown an interest in their well being by allowing them to come. Therefore they are the demonstratively logical choice.
2. Other parties were, by definition of opposing the ruling party, against accepting them. Therefor they are demonstratively not out for their good.
3. They may feel a personal sense of gratitude or debt to the party and its leaders, especially if said leaders are prominent and steadfast throughout the process.


And that kind of partisanship is hardly unusual either. I mean, just look at this forum and the threads about that american politician that's allegedly a pedophile. Plenty of people will still vote for him because he represents the right party. Now apply that to someone who has not only done nothing wrong but has literally saved your life.

[Arotania]

Too bad that people with a refugee status cannot vote in any German election.
Naturalization takes a minimum of 8 years of continuous residence in the country (average in 2016 was 17 years), language skills, economical independence and a few other things.
Your theory doesn't have any basis in reality.

Not only does it have a basis in reality but it has actually happened in many countries world over. It's actually a relatively common tactic to accept refugees into your country, fast track them to citizenship and than have them become a voting block for you.
What's unusual here is not that it's happening but that it diverges from the norm as typically these sorts of things take the form of staging a crisis nearby in a place where the population is ethnically, culturally, religiously or in some other way already aligned with you that you can use as an excuse for said fast tracking. That incidentally is why there is so much friction over this in the west. There is no proper excuse to pander to the masses beyond appeals to sympathy.

And it's very relevant here because the scope here is not just restricted to Germany. If you resettle these people across half of Europe, each country having its own naturalization laws and than bully them into fast tracking their process (which the EU does for lots of other things) you end up with a population in those countries that is loyal not to those countries but to their own joined interest which is you.

Plus, even if we assume none of this post is true there is no reason to think Merkel is so blindingly short sited that she could not pursue a policy that would be helpful to her or her party a mere 8 years down the line. After all, she presumably pursued education and that takes longer to pan out.

Which countries exactly are currently (or were in the past) bullied into fast-tracking naturalization? Why has none of this happened in the 90s with Bosnian refugees here in Germany? Along the same lines - how big is the bonus the CDU gets in Eastern Germany for being the party that fast-tracked the German Reunification? Not much to be seen of this effect in the federal elections over the years.

Also CDU + CSU are the ones screaming 'Leitkultur' at any chance possible. They are pushing for sending these people back to 'safe' countries like Afghanistan. Why would Merkel have gone for the deal with Erdogan which decreased the incoming numbers if she wanted more people 'imported'? Why aren't we seing droves of Afghans and Iraquis being naturalized? Is this supposed plan that new?

Was the surge in naturalizations of UK citizens (which surpassed their Afghan counterpart last year) also part of such a plan? What about the Turks and Poles that top the chart? Voting block importation just doesn't happen like this in Germany. It is not supported by the numbers or party policies.

This might be a naive question, but why would the refugees vote for the party that let them in once they were citizens able to vote? After that they'd be free to vote for whomever they please without fear of sudden deportation.

Bingo. Unless you see them as a homogenic mass of idiots this 'plan' is bound to fail. Especially for the numbers we are talking about in Germany.

And when that happens they become a strong and relatively unified voting block for you to exploit. And in that, the party that brought them in has several distinct advantages:
1. That party has already shown an interest in their well being by allowing them to come. Therefore they are the demonstratively logical choice.
2. Other parties were, by definition of opposing the ruling party, against accepting them. Therefor they are demonstratively not out for their good.
3. They may feel a personal sense of gratitude or debt to the party and its leaders, especially if said leaders are prominent and steadfast throughout the process.

1. Merkel merely acted according to the constitution
2. How braindead would you have to be to think that for example the Greens were against accepting refugees? Especially after being in the country for 8+ years and being fluent in the language?
3. Kohl felt much of this everlasting love in 1998

[Kaschen]

Whoever gets blamed for the election would likely suffer for it. People hate being dragged out to vote so soon after a previous election.

Unlikely.

The FDP broke off coalition talks and Lindner is seemingly more popular with FDP existing and potential voters than ever before for being principled and refusing crazy policy ideas.

So basically the country likes him less, FDP voters like him more, net zero voter and seat change, ergo zero change to the seat composition.

I don't know how many hardcore FDP voters there are. If some CDU voters voted FDP to protest Merkel, they might return.

I think most of the change in outcome for the next vote will be enthusiasm. I doubt the parties can change their message or messaging in the short time before the election.

[San Lumen]

This is why proportional representation doesn't work. You end up with situations like this were no party is able to form a government.

[Tesernia]

This is why proportional representation doesn't work. You end up with situations like this were no party is able to form a government.

Funnily enough, there is a perfectly viable coalition possibility that nobody wants to consider because the CDU is hardly even conservative anymore and the party that is starting to fill that void has been regarded as the second coming of Adolf Hitler.

So yes, you get situations like these when every major party starts to betray the principles it was founded on and refuses to accept that this may not be what the population wants.

[Summertimequestionswine]

I believe Satan himself played a part in the creation of the German state.

Not the Tooth Fairy, or the Lucky Charms guy? You think it was Satan, huh?

[Baltenstein]

This is why proportional representation doesn't work. You end up with situations like this were no party is able to form a government.

Funnily enough, there is a perfectly viable coalition possibility that nobody wants to consider because the CDU is hardly even conservative anymore and the party that is starting to fill that void has been regarded as the second coming of Adolf Hitler.

So yes, you get situations like these when every major party starts to betray the principles it was founded on and refuses to accept that this may not be what the population wants.

Your implied "CDU-AFD" coalition is so realistic that the AfDs Gauland proposed it on the condition that Merkel will not be chancellor anymore.

This is akin to, say, the US Greens saying that they would be ready to tolerate a Democratic government...if they get to pick the president. Big chance.

And people should stop acting as if this is still September 2015 and Merkel is welcoming a never-ending flow of migrants with open arms and no ends in sign. A lot of measures - some of them rather nasty, like making Erdogan the bouncer of Europe - have been taken to bring the situation back to normal.

[Improved werpland]

How likely is a return of the "Grand Coalition"?

[Vecherd]

It seems like negotiations could be in standstill for quite some time, but I dont see how a snap election would help either. polls show very small shifts and in various directions. I guess a realpolitiker would tell the SDP to try to be responsible but I can't see that happening in a long time. Its interesting but it'll be a long time untill we get to see whats going to happen imo. Unless Lindner gives in to the centrist Berlin talkingheads.

[Baltenstein]

How likely is a return of the "Grand Coalition"?

In the case of new elections, it is currently the most likely scenario. No other realistic options - those being: CDU-FDP, CDU-Greens, SPD-Green-Left - can expect to reach the necessary 50 %.

[Tesernia]

And people should stop acting as if this is still September 2015 and Merkel is welcoming a never-ending flow of migrants with open arms and no ends in sign.

Look. I'm not gonna forgive someone if they stop shoveling shit through my window after doing so for a whole year. If they want forgiveness, they better start cleaning up properly.

A lot of measures - some of them rather nasty, like making Erdogan the bouncer of Europe - have been taken to bring the situation back to normal.

Ah yes, the nasty measure of bribing the dictator of Turkey in the hopes of him keeping a few migrants away and not using this proverbial grip on Europe's ballsack to squeeze whenever Europe does something he dislikes.

What the fuck keeps us from guarding our own borders?

[Trumptonium]

This might be a naive question, but why would the refugees vote for the party that let them in once they were citizens able to vote? After that they'd be free to vote for whomever they please without fear of sudden deportation.

Because of legacy.

The only reason my mum is a Labour voter is because Blair let Polish people in, and she'll stay that way forever. Every election she wants Blair back. It doesn't matter what happens to Blair or Labour, the only way they will lose her vote is if they nuke Warsaw. Doesn't really care that the current leadership doesn't like him either.

My dad is the embodiment of UKIP but he votes Tory for rather obvious reasons. I guess women are more emotional.

How likely is a return of the "Grand Coalition"?

In the case of new elections, it is currently the most likely scenario. No other realistic options - those being: CDU-FDP, CDU-Greens, SPD-Green-Left - can expect to reach the necessary 50 %.

Since when are SDP-Linke and CDU-Green 'realistic' options?

[Ostroeuropa]

How likely is a return of the "Grand Coalition"?

In the case of new elections, it is currently the most likely scenario. No other realistic options - those being: CDU-FDP, CDU-Greens, SPD-Green-Left - can expect to reach the necessary 50 %.

Hopefully SPD-CDU reconcile differences, or the left coalition comes to power. The alternative of weak governments/constant failure to form a government would strengthen AFD and probably the far left too.

[Vecherd]

In the case of new elections, it is currently the most likely scenario. No other realistic options - those being: CDU-FDP, CDU-Greens, SPD-Green-Left - can expect to reach the necessary 50 %.

Hopefully SPD-CDU reconcile differences, or the left coalition comes to power. The alternative of weak governments/constant failure to form a government would strengthen AFD and probably the far left too.

SPD might as well fade into irrelevance at this point, they refuse to form a grandcoalition, and Die Linke is still and old Ostpartei with people like Wagenknecht that won't join in a coalition.

[Major-Tom]

Hopefully SPD-CDU reconcile differences, or the left coalition comes to power. The alternative of weak governments/constant failure to form a government would strengthen AFD and probably the far left too.

SPD might as well fade into irrelevance at this point, they refuse to form a grandcoalition, and Die Linke is still and old Ostpartei with people like Wagenknecht that won't join in a coalition.

Oddly enough, Die Linke made pretty fair gains in former West Germany and suffered losses in the former East this last election.

[Major-Tom]

I wonder what this does to Marcon's drive for a centralized European budget?

Hopefully murders it, urinates on the body and throws it in a ditch populated by cannibals.

Hopefully. Macron is a little weasel.

[Major-Tom]

This is why proportional representation doesn't work. You end up with situations like this were no party is able to form a government.

Pffttttt, proportional representation is a much better option than FPTP. Allows for the intentions of the voters to be better executed, or at the very least, it allows a government somewhat representative of the general populace's desires.