Germany unable to form a coalition: coming closer to a snap

[New Decius]

I love how Putin and Erdogan are demonized in the West for holding onto power through millions of terms, but Merkel is in her 4th term and no one bats an eyelid.

I don't see anything wrong with a 4th term. I dislike Putin for reasons other than the stability of his old on power.

The reason is Putin is an ex-KGB member who cannot be investigated by the international courts for what he did while in the KGB, unlike many KGB officers the Hague did manage to get its hands on. Putin also maintain’s his power through the backing of oligarchs and generals, and a very extensive propaganda campaign. And a very effective FSB which is essentially the KGB’s successor. Putin maintains power because he maintains a short leash on the Russian military, if the people ever do decide to vote him out (Though given he usually gets rid of any opposition that’d be tough) he could reassert power by military coup.

Erdogan maintain’s power through..well that I haven’t figured out. Not through controlling the army cause they tried to throw him out for leaning to far towards Islamism and Authoritarism. In the past the Turkish Army have staged coups which end up leading to more liberal and democratic leadership afterwards. Given that the most recent one failed, its resulted ina purge that has furthered authoritarian influence in Turkey. Erdogan does keep a very tight lid on the press and has his own propaganda machine which commonly hides whatever he’s done in the shadows and keeps the people focused on the Kurdish insurgency in Turkish controlled parts of Kurdistan.

Merkel is like neither of them. German press isn’t kept on a short leash, and the Bundeswehr has neither the troops (We are still under military restrictions) nor the political clout to give Merkel the ability to maintain her Chancellorship by military force. Also Merkel’s position is not exactly completely secure; if the Bundestag decides she’s not doing a good job, they can call for a vote of no confidence after which it would allow the President (Steinmeier) to dismiss the Chancellor though he would have to then accept the Bundestag’s chosen successor as the new Chancellor.

[Trumptonium]

FDP has officially walked out of coalition talks.

The only choices now are CDU-AfD, CDU-SPD, a minority government (a really shit one) or a snap election.

FDP says the coalition 'would not be united in the vision of modernising Germany'

Merkel 'sad to see [them] go.'

[Kaschen]

FDP has officially walked out of coalition talks.

The only choices now are CDU-AfD, CDU-SPD, a minority government (a really shit one) or a snap election.

FDP says the coalition 'would not be united in the vision of modernising Germany'

Merkel 'sad to see [them] go.'

Those aren't the only possibilities, in fact an AfD Union coalition is still a minority government. The most likely coalition with the AfD in the government is CDU, FDP AfD. If you mention that possibility, you might as well mention a CDU, FDP, Linke coalition, because it almost as likely to happen.

Since officially, the SPD walked out of coalition talks before they started, I say there is equal chance that the FDP returns to talks, as the SPD starts them. I think it mostly depends on what the people think. Also what the President does is important. (He is former SPD)

Conventional wisdom is that the FDP would win the same percentage in the polls, and therefore have nothing to lose. I think there is a risk that in a snap election voters would punish the FDP by voting for the CDU. If the FDP drops in polls, that could scare them back into talks.

The President could also attempt to restart negotiations for either Jamaica or a Grand Coalition.

A minority government could include then either the Greens or the FDP, in the off chance one in attempted. There hasn't been a real minority government in Germany since the war.

I think that snap elections look more tempting to the Union than a minority government. Especially after looking what happened in Spain. The CDU is undergoing some changes internally and so they may want to buy time for that. Really though, they want to show the public that they really tried to make it work.

[Ostroeuropa]

FDP has officially walked out of coalition talks.

The only choices now are CDU-AfD, CDU-SPD, a minority government (a really shit one) or a snap election.

FDP says the coalition 'would not be united in the vision of modernising Germany'

Merkel 'sad to see [them] go.'

Those aren't the only possibilities, in fact an AfD Union coalition is still a minority government. The most likely coalition with the AfD in the government is CDU, FDP AfD. If you mention that possibility, you might as well mention a CDU, FDP, Linke coalition, because it almost as likely to happen.

Since officially, the SPD walked out of coalition talks before they started, I say there is equal chance that the FDP returns to talks, as the SPD starts them. I think it mostly depends on what the people think. Also what the President does is important. (He is former SPD)

Conventional wisdom is that the FDP would win the same percentage in the polls, and therefore have nothing to lose. I think there is a risk that in a snap election voters would punish the FDP by voting for the CDU. If the FDP drops in polls, that could scare them back into talks.

The President could also attempt to restart negotiations for either Jamaica or a Grand Coalition.

A minority government could include then either the Greens or the FDP, in the off chance one in attempted. There hasn't been a real minority government in Germany since the war.

I think that snap elections look more tempting to the Union than a minority government. Especially after looking what happened in Spain. The CDU is undergoing some changes internally and so they may want to buy time for that. Really though, they want to show the public that they really tried to make it work.

I re-iterate that I expect nobody will join CDU in coalition, it's too beneficial for all parties to play hardball and force a minority government or snap election, then join together with a coalition of the left.

[Trumptonium]

Those aren't the only possibilities, in fact an AfD Union coalition is still a minority government.

Oh, I didn't notice that. I was under the impression that the CDU had way more seats than they actually do, because of CSU.

Conventional wisdom is that the FDP would win the same percentage in the polls, and therefore have nothing to lose. I think there is a risk that in a snap election voters would punish the FDP by voting for the CDU. If the FDP drops in polls, that could scare them back into talks.

Currently polls show no different results than what happened, contrary to what happened in Spain and the UK immediately after the election.

AfD and Linke are one up, CDU and Greens are one down. Not going to make a seat difference. Or a significant one.

I think that snap elections look more tempting to the Union than a minority government. Especially after looking what happened in Spain.

Snap elections killed the conservatives' chances of ruling in Spain.



Really though, none of this would happen if Merkel didn't fuck up the migrant issue. I wonder how the CDU upper brass feel about her future.

[Tesernia]

To think that none of this would be a problem if the CDU of today didn't have a paranoid fear of a party whose program essentially is that of the CDU we had twenty years ago.

[Kennlind]

Looks like Germany will have another election
Right now, I believe it will be gains for the AfD, the Greens, the SDP and Die Linke, as a challenge to the CDU/CSU and FDP.

[Trumptonium]

oh im late

[Trumptonium]

Looks like Germany will have another election
Right now, I believe it will be gains for the AfD, the Greens, the SDP and Die Linke, as a challenge to the CDU/CSU and FDP.

In polls, AfD and Linke are one point up, Greens and CDU are one point down. SDP and FDP haven't moved an inch.

In other words, a movement of 4% towards anti-establishment.

[Azurius]

If we’d returned to Post-Versailles territory after the Second War, with no Communist occupation for decades we would have had a continuously stable birth rate, and a larger population. We could be an even better example of democracy than we already are.

No you wouldn't.

Birth rates would have fallen regardless, as they have in every country. There's no reason why Germany would be special.

Population would be lower because millions would move to Denmark and Poland.

The main factor that governs birth rates are living standard. You can see that everywhere in the world. Increase living standards and implement some basic social security and birth rates drop, regardless of culture or other factors.

[Azurius]

Just because its possible doesn't mean it's right, 4+ terms isn't right or normal.

Erdy has the votes of the people, just like Merkel, he may be a neo-Ottoman dick but he is consistently voted in by the Turkish people with significant majorities, in that regard he's no more undemocratic than Merkel as they both have the same mandate for power. Until he loses an election or loses popularity and forcibly clings onto power, him and Merkel are on the same level.

The difference is that Merkel doesn't rig things in favor of her. Democracy requires free and fair competition not just votes. But regardless of that, Erdogan's party got slightly less than half the votes during the last election and his referendum in 2016 (which he also barely won) was definitely rigged.

When it comes to vote fraud... We had some manipulations of votes in the past, and this election they increased once again. Vote fraud is becoming an ever increasing problem in Germany too unfortunately.

Those aren't the only possibilities, in fact an AfD Union coalition is still a minority government. The most likely coalition with the AfD in the government is CDU, FDP AfD. If you mention that possibility, you might as well mention a CDU, FDP, Linke coalition, because it almost as likely to happen.

Since officially, the SPD walked out of coalition talks before they started, I say there is equal chance that the FDP returns to talks, as the SPD starts them. I think it mostly depends on what the people think. Also what the President does is important. (He is former SPD)

Conventional wisdom is that the FDP would win the same percentage in the polls, and therefore have nothing to lose. I think there is a risk that in a snap election voters would punish the FDP by voting for the CDU. If the FDP drops in polls, that could scare them back into talks.

The President could also attempt to restart negotiations for either Jamaica or a Grand Coalition.

A minority government could include then either the Greens or the FDP, in the off chance one in attempted. There hasn't been a real minority government in Germany since the war.

I think that snap elections look more tempting to the Union than a minority government. Especially after looking what happened in Spain. The CDU is undergoing some changes internally and so they may want to buy time for that. Really though, they want to show the public that they really tried to make it work.

I re-iterate that I expect nobody will join CDU in coalition, it's too beneficial for all parties to play hardball and force a minority government or snap election, then join together with a coalition of the left.

The CDU is not the left, it is a centre-right party.

[Ostroeuropa]

The difference is that Merkel doesn't rig things in favor of her. Democracy requires free and fair competition not just votes. But regardless of that, Erdogan's party got slightly less than half the votes during the last election and his referendum in 2016 (which he also barely won) was definitely rigged.

When it comes to vote fraud... We had some manipulations of votes in the past, and this election they increased once again. Vote fraud is becoming an ever increasing problem in Germany too unfortunately.

I re-iterate that I expect nobody will join CDU in coalition, it's too beneficial for all parties to play hardball and force a minority government or snap election, then join together with a coalition of the left.

The CDU is not the left, it is a centre-right party.

Right.
Hence why the parties will refuse a coalition with CDU, force a snap election, and try for a left-coalition.

[Azurius]

When it comes to vote fraud... We had some manipulations of votes in the past, and this election they increased once again. Vote fraud is becoming an ever increasing problem in Germany too unfortunately.



The CDU is not the left, it is a centre-right party.

Right.
Hence why the parties will refuse a coalition with CDU, force a snap election, and try for a left-coalition.

Well a left coalition will be shacky at best too. The SPD and the die linke don´t see eye to eye, same for the greens. A coalition of SPD and die linke failed pretty bad in the past too. I don´t see any high chances of any left wing coalition forming either.

[Baltenstein]

Looks like the Grand Coalition will continue then.

To think that none of this would be a problem if the CDU of today didn't have a paranoid fear of a party whose program essentially is that of the CDU we had twenty years ago.

That's more what the AfD likes to think about itself rather than reality.

[Ethel mermania]

No you wouldn't.

Birth rates would have fallen regardless, as they have in every country. There's no reason why Germany would be special.

Population would be lower because millions would move to Denmark and Poland.

The main factor that governs birth rates are living standard. You can see that everywhere in the world. Increase living standards and implement some basic social security and birth rates drop, regardless of culture or other factors.

As the educational level of women rises, birth rates decrease.

[Kaschen]

Those aren't the only possibilities, in fact an AfD Union coalition is still a minority government. The most likely coalition with the AfD in the government is CDU, FDP AfD. If you mention that possibility, you might as well mention a CDU, FDP, Linke coalition, because it almost as likely to happen.

Since officially, the SPD walked out of coalition talks before they started, I say there is equal chance that the FDP returns to talks, as the SPD starts them. I think it mostly depends on what the people think. Also what the President does is important. (He is former SPD)

Conventional wisdom is that the FDP would win the same percentage in the polls, and therefore have nothing to lose. I think there is a risk that in a snap election voters would punish the FDP by voting for the CDU. If the FDP drops in polls, that could scare them back into talks.

The President could also attempt to restart negotiations for either Jamaica or a Grand Coalition.

A minority government could include then either the Greens or the FDP, in the off chance one in attempted. There hasn't been a real minority government in Germany since the war.

I think that snap elections look more tempting to the Union than a minority government. Especially after looking what happened in Spain. The CDU is undergoing some changes internally and so they may want to buy time for that. Really though, they want to show the public that they really tried to make it work.

I re-iterate that I expect nobody will join CDU in coalition, it's too beneficial for all parties to play hardball and force a minority government or snap election, then join together with a coalition of the left.

It may be, but it is important who is blamed for the snap elections. The elections will be unpopular, I think only 20% want a minority government.

There is no guarantee that a Red Red Green coalition will be possible after an election. It wasn't possible after the last one. Even then it is not the SPD's preferred combination. The only advantage of it to the SPD, is that it is probably the only way the SPD could get less votes than the Union and still lead a government.

Anyway, the SPD is criticizing the CDU for their failure and the Greens are blaming the Liberals.

[Kaschen]

A probable factor with the German birthrate is that women are more likely to move. Especially after the Wende. More women moved west, and more women moved from the country to cities. The intersection of these trends means that some villages in east Germany have 5 men to 1 women in certain age groups.

However, education and wealth are important factors as well. Second generation immigrants tend to have smaller German sized families.

[Albrenia]

Whoever gets blamed for the election would likely suffer for it. People hate being dragged out to vote so soon after a previous election.

[Baltenstein]

Whoever gets blamed for the election would likely suffer for it. People hate being dragged out to vote so soon after a previous election.

Right now, most people are putting the blame with FDP party leader Christian Lindner - it was him who broke off the coalition talks after all.

On the other hand, people who liked him before like him even more now, for standing by his beliefs etc.

[The Huskar Social Union]

What do folks think will happen in a new election? CDU loses out, everyone else gains maybe?

[West-Borland]

Germany, Germany, Germany. Oh, Germany.

They're going for round three. It won't work.

It won't happen. I cannot fathom why you think it will. Letting less immigrants in and leaving a union that just wants their money isn't something that turns a country into a crazy warmongering dictatorship.

[Purpelia]

They're going for round three. It won't work.

It won't happen. I cannot fathom why you think it will. Letting less immigrants in and leaving a union that just wants their money isn't something that turns a country into a crazy warmongering dictatorship.

Letting more migrants in to flood out the natives with a population loyal to you for letting them in whilst further federalizing Europe and founding an European army of oppression however is the perfect way to do so.

[West-Borland]

It won't happen. I cannot fathom why you think it will. Letting less immigrants in and leaving a union that just wants their money isn't something that turns a country into a crazy warmongering dictatorship.

Letting more migrants in to flood out the natives with a population loyal to you for letting them in whilst further federalizing Europe and founding an European army of oppression however is the perfect way to do so.

Indeed. Although I don't think this particular outcome is likely, this was the method of political machines in the US during the Gilded Age, and it took decades of anti-corruption work to stamp it out. This method is now being used again, albeit less directly. It's not really about race, it's just about power. Political manipulation. Greed.

*sigh*

Career politicians...

[Purpelia]

Letting more migrants in to flood out the natives with a population loyal to you for letting them in whilst further federalizing Europe and founding an European army of oppression however is the perfect way to do so.

Indeed. Although I don't think this particular outcome is likely, this was the method of political machines in the US during the Gilded Age, and it took decades of anti-corruption work to stamp it out. This method is now being used again, albeit less directly. It's not really about race, it's just about power. Political manipulation. Greed.

*sigh*

Career politicians...

Its not about race at all. Where did you even get race out of this?

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. And whilst that does in this case involve marginalizing the natives politically the race, gender or any other characteristics of the imported block don't matter in this context. It could literally be clones of the natives just brainwashed and the effect would be the same.

What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

[West-Borland]

Indeed. Although I don't think this particular outcome is likely, this was the method of political machines in the US during the Gilded Age, and it took decades of anti-corruption work to stamp it out. This method is now being used again, albeit less directly. It's not really about race, it's just about power. Political manipulation. Greed.

*sigh*

Career politicians...

Its not about race at all. Where did you even get race out of this?

It's about altering the voting demographics by importing a new block of people who are loyal to the currently ruling party. And whilst that does in this case involve marginalizing the natives politically the race, gender or any other characteristics of the imported block don't matter in this context. It could literally be clones of the natives just brainwashed and the effect would be the same.

What matters is just that the imported block has some good reason to be loyal to you such as gratitude for being allowed to come or fear of being expelled if you are out of office. Preferably both.

I mentioned race because a lot of people think it is about race. You have your people that are screaming "white genocide!" and your people that are screaming "white cis-male patriarchy/apartheid!". They both make it about race. Most people aren't very educated on the topic.